D. Todd Jones-Farranddavid_jones-farrand@fws.gov

Thomas W. BonnotBonnotT@Missouri.edu

NCER 21 April 2016

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How Much Restoration & Where?Using structured decision making to turn landscape priorities into efficient adaptation strategies in the Ozarks

Steering Committee

State Wildlife Agencies– AL DCNR, AGFC, FFWCC,

KDFWR, LDWF, MDWFP, MDC, ODWC, TWRA, TPWD

Federal Agencies– NOAA, NPS, USACE, USFWS,

USFS, USGSNGOs

– DU, NBCI, TNC (ABC, TCF)Universities

– MS State, (Auburn)

The GCPO aims to define, design & deliver landscapes capable of sustaining desired natural and cultural resources

Science

Science

Delivery

Elements of the Problem

Large Region– Restoration on private lands

Complexity– Cumulative impacts/responses– Conflicting objectives

Uncertainty– Present & Future changes

Ambiguity– Sustainable, landscapes, etc.

Discontinuity– Data doesn’t match objectives

Solutions to the Problem

Clear Objectives– What & How much

Transparent Assumptions– Species-habitat relationships– Current conditions– Expected changes

Strategic Framework– Learn by doing

Structured Decision Making & Scenario Modeling

What is Structured Decision Making?

“A formalization of common sense for decision problems which are too

complex for informal use of common sense.”

-Ralph Keeney, 1982

PrOACT

Modeling Toolkit

Problem

Uncertainty:Climate Change?

Land use Change?Funding?

Trigger

Strategies & Scenarios

Objectives

Alternatives

Consequences

Tradeoffs & Optimization

Decide & Take Action

SDM Analysis Toolkit

Multiple Species

Moving towards Proactive ConservationFor complex decisions with substantial uncertainty, scenario modeling provides a way to evaluate alternative sets of actions

Portfolio 1 Portfolio 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Portfolio n

Species 1 7 9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

Species 2 1 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Species n 2 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

Time 11 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

Cost 3 6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

ALTERNATIVES

OBJ

ECTI

VES

Moving towards Proactive ConservationStrategy Framework for dynamic decision making (OZHI pilot project)• DFCs & CHJV Habitat Objectives for forest habitat systems

Moving towards Proactive ConservationStrategy Framework for dynamic decision making (OZHI pilot project)• DFCs & CHJV Habitat Objectives for forest habitat systems• Landscape Prioritization

Ozark Highlands CCS pilot project used a Rule Set

Rule 6: Is the catchment a high priority?

Repeat for 9 Forested Habitat Types & Inform with CHJV Habitat Objectives

Moving towards Proactive ConservationStrategy Framework for dynamic decision making (OZHI pilot project)• DFCs & CHJV Habitat Objectives for forest habitat systems• Landscape Prioritization• Species Models & Future Projections

Landscape-based Regional Population Models

1. Regional growth depends on processes occurring across all scales!• 900 m2 >100,000’s km2

2. Planner’s Paradox• Translating regional goals into

local actions requires understanding the effects of local actions on regional growth

Productivity

Dispersal• Cell-level movements• Habitat Dependent• Distance Dependent

Carrying Capacity and Abundance

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

Abu

ndan

ce

-0.03 %

-0.5 %

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

Abun

danc

eBBS

BBS

BBS

1.5%

01234567

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Abu

ndan

ce (M

Illio

ns)

Year

Conservation ScenariosHabitat Restoration

Random

Protected Areas

NPS/Todd Edgar

North Central Region Forest Management Guide

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100Year

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

PR

AW A

bund

ance

Year

Conservation Needs to be Strategic

Habitat Restoration AfforestationProtected

Random

Strategic

Random

Moving towards Proactive ConservationStrategy Framework for dynamic decision making (OZHI pilot project)• DFCs & CHJV Habitat Objectives for forest habitat systems• Landscape Prioritization• Species Models & Future Projections

Process-based Approaches

• We have projections of climate • We know how forests grow • Species habitat• Factors that affect reproduction and survival• Movements and dispersal

Climate Model Simulated Landscapes Population Growth

Landscapes & Forest Processes

Ecosystem Model•Location•Tree vital rates•Climate•Soil characteristics

Landscape Model•Tree establishment, growth •Seed dispersal•Vegetative reproduction•Longevity•Shade tolerance•Fire tolerance•Disturbance regime•Management regime

Climate Model•Temperature•Precipitation•Solar radiation

Landscapes & Forests under climate change

Sugar maple

White oak

ExtinctionColonizationPersistence

0102030405060708090

100

Short term Midterm Longterm

% V

ARIA

TIO

N

Succession HarvestClimate Climate*Harvest

0200,000400,000600,000800,000

1,000,0001,200,0001,400,0001,600,0001,800,0002,000,000

2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 2110Year

Abu

ndan

ce (f

emal

es)

Distribution

Population Size

Juan Zamora

Climate change impacts on Wood Thrush

CGCM.T47 (Moderate)

Current

GFDL.A1FI (Extreme)

Climate Scenario

Distribution

Population Size

Climate change impacts on Prairie Warblers

Moving towards Proactive ConservationStrategy Framework for dynamic decision making (OZHI pilot project)• DFCs & CHJV Habitat Objectives for forest habitat systems• Landscape Prioritization• Species Models & Future Projections• Adaptation Strategies evaluated in terms of sustainable wildlife populations

2010 2030 2050 2070 2090Year

Protected and Private Areas

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

Acres

Year

Protected Areas Only

Comprehensive Conservation StrategyCHJV Acreage Targets (≈3 million ac)

2020 2040 2060

2080 2100

Managed lands - Public

Developed lands

Likely Developed lands

Managed lands - Private

Comprehensive Conservation Strategy

Protected Only Private and ProtectedManaged lands - Public

Developed lands

Likely Developed lands

Managed lands - Private

Managed lands in 2100

Prairie Warbler without CCS

CGCM3.T47 (Moderate)

Current

GFDL.A1FI (Extreme)

Climate Scenario

Prairie Warbler with CCSunder Extreme Climate Change

Private and Protected-Full

Base

Private and Protected-Half

Conservation Scenario

Protected - Full

Protected - Half

Wood Thrush without CCS

CGCM3.T47 (Moderate)

Current

GFDL.A1FI (Extreme)

Climate Scenario

Wood Thrush with CCSunder Extreme Climate Change

Private and Protected-Full

Base

Private and Protected-Half

Conservation Scenario

Protected - Full

Protected - Half

Multiple species and Multiple Climates….

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Base Full Half Full Half

Private and Protected Protected

Risk

Risk of population declining by half through 2100

Wood ThrushPrairie Warbler

Moving towards Proactive ConservationStrategy Framework for dynamic decision making (OZHI pilot project)• DFCs & CHJV Habitat Objectives for forest habitat systems• Landscape Prioritization• Species Models & Future Projections• Adaptation Strategies evaluated in terms of sustainable wildlife populations• Tradeoffs within & among habitat systems