Post on 17-Jan-2016
How Did Metro Boston Grow?2000-2010
11.521 – Spatial Database Management and Advanced GIS
Final Presentation
Group Members: Amy Jacobi, Eric Schultheis, Nse Umoh, Rob Goodspeed, Samira Thomas
Prof. Joseph Ferreira
Presentation Outline
• Project Goals• Process• Methodology• Results• Conclusions
PROJECT GOALS
Project Goals
• Evaluate growth patterns in the metro-Boston between 2000 and 2010.
• Compare observed growth in the last decade with the MetroFuture scenarios: Let It Be and Winds of Change.
• Understand the effect of observed growth on greenhouse gas emissions by private vehicles.
PROCESS
Process Map
Land Use Polygons
(1999 & 2005)
Census Block Populations
‘Non-Residential’ Block Finder
Allocation ModelAllocation to 250m Grid
MetroFuture Scenarios (TAZs)
Results
Allocation to TAZ
Allocation to Residential Areas
Allocation to Sensible GeographiesInput Data Evaluating
Growth in metro-Boston
Allocation to 25m Grid
Geo
proc
essi
ng
VMT(205m Grid)
METHODOLOGY
Conflicting Topographies: An Example Area
Conflicting Topographies
Conflicting Topographies
The Grid(s)
Resolving Conflicts with the Grid (25m)
Allocation to Residential Areas
• Identify residential and institutional land uses.• Identify blocks that do not intersect residential land use
areas.• Land use allocation
– Sliver Finder• Integrate Census Blocks (2000, 2010) and residential land uses• Calculate areas, perimeter, and area/perimeter ratio• Eliminate features with areas less than 400 sqm and area/perimeter
ratio less than 1
– Population/housing unit allocation model (Access)• Paloc= P * (A + L) / 2
• A = land use area % of total area of Block, L = land use area % of residential area in Block
Model to Identify Block that do not Intersect with Residential Areas
Model to Allocate to Residential Areas
ArcGIS Models: Allocating to Residential Areas
Allocation to Residential Areas
• Merge allocated residential areas with ‘missed’ blocks forming an allocated areas polygon file.
• Calculate the number of 25m grid centroids that fall in each allocated areas polygon.
• Identify allocated areas polygons with no 25m grid centroids.
• Convert the allocated areas polygons to 25m grid celss.• Aggregate allocated 25m grid cells to 250m grid cells
(add in population missed by 25m grid method).• Aggregate allocated 25m grid cells to TAZs (add in
population missed by 25m grid method).
Allocation to Sensible Geographies
ArcGIS Models: Allocating to Sensible Geographies
Model to Merge Habitable Area and Populated Blocks with no Residential Area.
Model to Allocate to 25m Grid and then Aggregate to 250m Grid (due to resolution of 25m grid, metro-Boston area must be divided into 32
slivers and the model needs to be ran for each sliver )
Allocation to Sensible Geographies
Comparing 11.521 & MassGIS Allocations
Census 2000 Census 2010
Regional Block Data From Census
4,317,333 4,465,821
Grid Cell Allocation 4,292,166 4,426,075
Percent Allocated 99.42% 99.11%
The Allocation: A Regional View
RESULTS
Inner Core Regional Urban Centers Maturing Suburbs Developing Suburbs850,000
950,000
1,050,000
1,150,000
1,250,000
1,350,000
1,450,000
1,550,000
2000 Population
2010 Population
Metrofuture Population 2030
Let it Be Population 2030
Metro Boston Population by Community Type
Inner Core Regional Urban Centers Maturing Suburbs Developing Suburbs20%
22%
24%
26%
28%
30%
32%
2000 Population2010 PopulationMetrofuture Population 2030Let it Be Population 2030
Metro Boston Population Proportion by Community Type
Inner Core Regional Urban Centers Maturing Suburbs Developing Suburbs250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
700,000
2000 Housing Units
2010 Housing Units
MetroFuture Housing Units 2030
Let it Be Housing Units 2030
Metro Boston Housing Units By Community Type
Inner Core Regional Urban Centers Maturing Suburbs Developing Suburbs15%
17%
19%
21%
23%
25%
27%
29%
31%
33%
35%
2000 Housing Units
2010 Housing Units
MetroFuture Housing Units 2030
Let it Be Housing Units 2030
Metro Boston Housing Units Proportion, by Community Type
2010 MetroFuture 2030 Current Trends 2030
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
-0.7%
2.5%
-1.4%
0.7%
-2.5%
1.4%
Inside CODA
Outside CODA
Change in Proportion of Population in CODAs, since 2000
Population Change (Percent & Raw) by Town, since 2000
Housing Unit Change (Percent & Raw) by Town, since 2000
Histogram of Average Household Vehicle Miles Traveled by Grid Cell
1,829 - 4,614
4,614 - 7,399
7,399 - 10,184
10,184 - 12,969
12,969 - 15,754
15,754 - 18,538
18,538 - 21,323
21,323 - 24,108
24,108 - 26,893
26,893 - 29,678
29,678 - 32,463
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
Average Vechile Miles Traveled per Household
freq
uenc
y
Average Household Vehicle Miles Traveled by Community Type
Community Type Average VMT per Household
Minimum VMT per Household
Maximum VMT per Household
Standard Deviation of VMT per Household
Inner Core 10131 1473 29678 2259
Maturing Suburbs 12100 1074 29948 2571
Regional Urban Centers 12224 1319 28937 2683
Developing Suburbs 13604 1262 29638 2734
Metro Future Region 12845 1074 29948 2827
Average Household Vehicle Miles Traveled by Community Type & CODA
Develo
ping Suburb
s
Inner Core
Maturin
g Suburb
s
Regional
Urban
Center
s
MetroFu
ture Reg
ion0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
Non-CODACODATotal
Community Type
Aver
age
Hous
ehol
d VM
T
Average Household Vehicle Miles Traveled by CODA
TAZ TYPE Average VMT per Household
Minimum VMT per Household
Maximum VMT per Household
Standard Deviation of VMT per Household
Non-CODA 13255 1074 29448 2777CODA 11682 1301 29948 2638Metro Future Region
12845 1074 29948 2827
Population Change by CODA, since 2000
Growth by Average Household Vehicle Miles Traveled Area Type
VMT Type Average VMT per Household
Very Low <7000Low 7001-10,000Medium 10,001-13,000High 13,001-18,000Very High >18,000
Growth by Average Household Vehicle Miles Traveled Area Type
Very Low Low Medium High Very High0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
5.99 5.93
0.98 1.16
5.24
Average Household VMT
Addi
onal
Peo
ple
Growth by Average Household Vehicle Miles Traveled Area Type
VMT Type Average VMT per Household
% of Region (Area)
% of Regional Growth
Very Low <7000 1% 3%Low 7001-10,000 19% 53%Medium 10,001-13,000 48% 22%High 13,001-18,000 30% 17%Very High >18,000 2% 5%
The two lowest VMT categories (less than 10,000 miles per Household per year) , which accounted for 20% of the regions is land, contained 56% of the region’s growth over the past decade.
Greenfield development, which occurred in 3% of the region’s area, contributed 43% of the population growth for the metro-Boston region. The average household VMT for these cells was over 1,000 miles higher than the average household VMT for the metro-Boston region (13,186 vs. 12,037).
CONCLUSIONS