Counter-hydro-hegemony in the Nile Basin: tipping the balance of power in favour of

upstream riparian states

Presentation to HH6 WorkshopLondon, 12 January 2013

Ana Elisa Cascão, SIWI

Nile Basin: Geopolitical changes since HH5

• New map

• New riparian (South Sudan)

• Political volte-face

• Redefinition of regional political & economic landscape

• New infrastructure projects

• Change of balance of power

• New cooperation paradigms?

Stat

e of

the

Nile

Riv

er B

asin

201

2 (N

BI)

Changes in the Balance of Power

PAST

PRESENT

Bargaining and Ideational Power:what has changed?

• Negotiations capacity• Power to set the

agenda/timing• Collective bargaining power

• New geopolitical actors and settings

• New ’joker’ cards (e.g. GRD)• New paradigm of

cooperation

’Less’ power asymmetries

Counter-hegemonic actions

Challenges to status quo

Multilateral Cooperation: the good and the evil

Multilateral Cooperation

Basin-wide development of transboundary

water resources

Basin-wide legal and institutional framework?

New paradigms for development of water resources?

Agenda-setting: who calls the shots?

Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA): A new hydropolitical set-up on the Nile?

1997-2007: Multilateral negotiations

2007-2010: Interlude

2010: Signature of the new CFA

> 2013: Ratification by upstream riparians

A not-all inclusive Nile Basin Commission?

Bargaining Power

Ideational Power

Grand Renaissance Dam: a new paradigm for cooperation?

• Multilateral cooperation has not delivered

• Increasing needs and demands• Ethiopian unilateral move• Trilateral Committee• New paradigm for cooperation?

Bargaining Power

Ideational Power

Cooperation without donors?

• Who calls the shots?• Cooperation outside the NBI

(although...)• Country-driven• Trilateral talks• Investment-driven• No external funding

Bargaining Power

Ideational Power

Outcomes of transboundary cooperation

Conflict avoidance

Bargaining deadlock

Ideational status quo

Conflict addressed

Creative bargaining

Ideational change

Multilateral Cooperation

Bilateral/Trilateral Cooperation

Same river...

Same actors...

Different process

Conclusions

How do we know that soft power is being utilised?

How does it have an impact on water resources management practices and allocation outcome?

How can we assess it as being a form of justice being argued?