Haps & Hazards of Back-Testing - MoneyMentor · 2014. 2. 3. · –Simple Moving Averages...

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20120502

Sunny’s Dynamic Moving Average

SunnyBands

Today We Will

• Compare and Contrast

– Simple Moving Averages

– Exponential Moving Averages

– Bollinger Bands

– Keltner Channels

– SunnyBands

Introduction

• After 30 years of trading and research, Sunny

Harris has developed many strategies both for

herself and for clients.

• More important than developing the strategies,

Sunny has developed testing methodologies that

have stood the test of time, and have become the

defacto standard in the trading community. In this

webinar Sunny will share some of her more

profitable trading concepts, and some of her

proprietary trading indicators.

My Credentials

• Sunny J. Harris

• BA, MS, PhD Mathematics

• Trading since 1981 (30 years)

• #1 Rated trader by Stark Research 1993 &

1994 (365% & 178%)

• Research: Programming & Testing since 1981

• Teaching others to trade since 1986

Books I Have Written:

• Trading 101—How to Trade Like a Pro

• Trading 102—Getting Down to Business

• Electronic Day Trading 101

• Getting Started in Trading

• TradeStation Made Easy!

• Working on Grading the Gurus

• …and more after that

More about Me

• For a list of appearances, past and

present

• and a list of published articles,

• click here to go to

www.moneymentor.com

• then click on Seminars and then

Editorial

Now for the Good Stuff

• How to make money trading

• The Steps

• The Indicators

• The Strategy

Setting Your Goals

• Not everyone can trade the same

system.

• What’s good for the goose, is not

necessarily good for the gander.

• I might like 1-minute bars, and you

might like Daily bars.

• You might like 15-minute bars, and I

might like Weekly bars.

• Your system MUST be configured for

YOUR personality.

How do you find your Time Frame?

• Before finding the right time frame, you

must first find the right instrument

• Bonds have a rhythm of 45-minute swings,

while the eMini has a rhythm of 15-minute

swings.

• Currencies swing on a daily chart.

• Mutual funds swing on a weekly chart.

• You must find the right rhythm

Different Rhythms

Finding the Right Symbol

• Don’t tell the market what you want to

trade.

• Let the market tell you where the money is.

• Start with screening the larger markets

– Dow 30

– Nasdaq 100

– S&P 500

– Russell 2000

Doing both in Conjunction

• At the same time you query the

universe of symbols, you must still keep in

mind the Time Frame.

• At the same time you consider Time Frame,

you must still consider your own

personality.

• For instance, I have clients who:

– want only to trade in the first 2 hours

– only want to trade near the close

– want to place a trade and walk away

– want to do Mutual Fund switching

Everything at Once

• You must consider

– Time Frame

– Time Constraints

– Universe of Symbols

• You must ask yourself:

– Where is the money?

– Where is the action?

Start With

• Scanning the Universe of Symbols on

a Daily Basis

• RadarScreen setup:

Another PHW Scan

• S&P 500

• Sorted w Highest PHW on top

• PHW Tells You What?

What Does PHW Tell You?

• PHW stands for

– Potential Hourly Wage

• It is for you to evaluate whether you could

make more money trading or working at

McDonalds.

• It only makes sense to trade if you can

make money doing it

– Some people trade for the challenge

– Some people trade for the excitement

– These people lose money

A Stock with a Low PHW

S: Sprint Nextel Corp

A Stock with a High PHW

GOOG: Google

Then pick a stock you can afford

• Filter by Price and by Volume (RS) ~

~

IF Close >= j_PriceBottom

AND Close <= j_PriceTop AND V >= j_VolMin

THEN BEGIN

Plot1( Close, "Price" , white) ; SetPlotBGColor(1,OKColor);

Plot2( Volume, "Volume" , white) ;

SetPlotBGColor(2,OKColor);

END;

If Close < j_PriceBottom

OR Close > j_PriceTop AND V < j_VolMin

THEN BEGIN

Plot1( Close, "Price" , white) ;

SetPlotBGColor(1,BadColor);

Plot2( Volume, "Volume" , white) ;

SetPlotBGColor(2,BadColor);

END;

Filter by Price & Volume

Blue areas meet our criteria:

Setting up the Filter

• Put in the Symbol Lists

• Insert the PHW Indicator

• Sort PHW from Highest to Lowest

• Select symbols within your price filter that

have the highest PHWs

Filter PLUS PHW

• Qualifying stock must meet both filters

(High PHW and blue)

How Much Is Enough?

• How Do You Know Whether Your Test

Generates Enough Profit?

• What is Possible?

• Should your chart generate $500, $5,000,

$50,000 or $100,000 or $500,000?

• You better know this before you begin

• Don’t just trade something because you

“feel like it”

How Much Is Enough?

• That problem always perplexed me

• Until

• I invented an indicator to tell me

• On any chart, any time frame, any symbol

• Here’s how it looks on a chart:

PHW Indicator at 0.01

How Much Is Enough?

• This is one of the most important

indicators in all of my work

• For 2 reasons

1. How Much Is Enough?

2. Does My System Match the Dots?

PHW Indicator at 0.02

To see how much is enough:

• Give the chart space to the right

• Read the data on the right hand edge

Now that you’ve found your Symbol

• How shall you Analyze It?

– Simple Moving Average

– Exponential Moving Average

– Bollinger Bands

– Keltner Channels

– SunnyBands

Simple Moving Average

Exponential Moving Average

Bollinger Bands

Keltner Channel

SunnyBands

Now that you’ve found your Symbol

• Put SunnyBands on the chart

• Tailor the settings

Tailor the Settings

• Password Value

• OHLC

• OHLC

• FastDMA Length

• SlowDMA Length

• Fast Smoothing Factor

• Slow Smoothing Factor

• Color of Fast Line

• Color of Slow Line

• ATR Distance to Top Band

• ATR Distance to Bottom Band

• Thickness of Top Band

• Thickness of Bottom Band

• Thickness of Fast DMA

• Thickness of Slow DMA

• Password Text

• Precision of Calculations

• Return Value: do not change

Different Band ATRs: 2.0

Different Band ATRs: 1.5

Different Band ATRs: 1.2

Different Band ATRs: 1.0

Different Band ATRs: 1.2 w 2.0

ABA: Always Be Asking

• What Is True?

• What Is Happening?

• How Far is the Current Market Moving?

• What Happens When the Band is

Touched?

• What Happens if the DMA is Moving

Sideways?

• What Happens If the 15-min is Signaling

Short While the 1-min Signals Long?

If There’s Only a Dollar

• TAKE IT!

• Don’t try to tell the Market where to go.

• What’s the Diff?

Read the SunnyBands Values

• From the Right Hand Edge

SunnyBands on Any TimeFrame

• 1 Minute

SunnyBands on Any TimeFrame

• 5 Minute

SunnyBands on Any TimeFrame

• 15 Minute

SunnyBands on Any TimeFrame

• 30 Minute

SunnyBands Combined w DMA

Take Signal from Longer, Entry from

Shorter time frame SunnyBands

Bands Over Bands

What Are My Rules?

1. Take 1st Clue from VP-Prediction

2. Take Setup from 15-min and 30-min

Charts

3. Take Entries from 1-min and 5-min Charts

4. Enter Long when LT chart is red/magenta

& below lower SunnyBand, and ST chart

is also red and below lower SunnyBand

5. Take Profit when Attractor is reached, or

Upper SunnyBand on LT chart is

penetrated upward and then back

downward on red bar

VP Prediction on MoneyMentor.com

More of My Rules

6. When the DMA is “long” the bias is to

the up-side. Therefore, don’t expect a

short trade to drop further than the

midline.

7. If the DMA is flat, stay w the first entry

of the flat period until the DMA finds a

direction

8. If I got a short signal (blue/green going

up turns to red below Band) and

blue/green continues on up, reverse

and go long. This will likely be strong.

More of My Rules

9. Opposite is true for Shorts

10.Wait for it.

11.Wait for Proof (ie move in the expected

direction)

12.There is always another trade

13.Take Your Losses FAST

Wait for Correspondence

• 1 min & 5 min Charts

Actual Trading Day

• 1 minute eMini S&P (ESU11)

Actual Trading Day

“It takes TIME for profits to build.” –Larry Williams

Example of Strong Up Move

Time Sequence: July 4

July 5

July 6

July 7

July 10

July 11-12

What Are SunnyBars?

Wider Bars Show Increased Volume:

SunnyBars: 5 min (Any Timeframe)

What Are SessionBars?

Can be set to any Open & Close times

What Are Attractors?

• Support

• Resistance

• Pennants

• Moving Averages

• Congestion Areas

• Draw them & set Alerts

Attractors (1 min):

Attractors (Daily)

Pennants as Attractors

Where’s the Market Going?

Daily Dow

Where’s the Market Going?

Monthly Dow

14,000

eSignal AdvancedGET

and Don’t Forget

That’s IT, in a NutShell

• For more information, or

• For consulting or tutoring

• Call me at (760) 908-3070, or

• Skype (760) 444-4174

• Fax (760) 859-3057

• Email me at:

sunnyharris@moneymentor.com

• And visit www.moneymentor.com

• QUESTIONS?

Special for Attendees of Webinar

• For all those who attended the 5/2/12

Webinar for TradersCoach.com I offer the

following:

• All of my products (except the book) at

50% OFF the prices listed on my website

(www.moneymentor.com) until 5/31/11.

• Thanks to all who attended.

• Remember that I’m happy to accept

phone calls: (760) 908-3070 PST.