Post on 24-Dec-2015
GRPE_djrndt_020214.ppt Slide 1
Transport Fuels for the Future
Neville Thompson,
David Rickeard
CONCAWE
Inland Transport Committee Round Table, 20 February 2002, Geneva
GRPE_djrndt_020214.ppt Slide 2
• Achievements to date, future challenges
• Drivers for changes to fuels
• Fuels for advanced conventional vehicles
• Fuel requirements of longer term vehicle options
• CONCAWE activities
• Conclusions
TRANSPORT FUELS FOR THE FUTURE
GRPE_djrndt_020214.ppt Slide 3
DRAMATIC REDUCTION IN REGULATED EMISSIONS
0
20
40
60
80
100
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Reg
ula
ted
em
issi
on
s li
mit
s, %
Gasoline HC+NOx LD Diesel HC+NOx LD Diesel PM
HD Diesel PM HD Diesel NOx
GRPE_djrndt_020214.ppt Slide 5
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Emis
sion
s, %
of 1
995
leve
l CO
NOx
PM-diesel
VOC
Benzene
SO2
CO2
Source : European Commission
NEW FOCUS ON GREENHOUSE GASES
Future challenge: Reduce CO2 while maintaining low regulated emissions
GRPE_djrndt_020214.ppt Slide 6
• Real benefits when fuel change enables a step change in engine / after-treatment technology
MAJOR IMPROVEMENTS IN FUEL QUALITY ACHIEVED
Major reductions in gasoline emissions through catalytic converters + lead-free gasoline
Further reductions in emissions through low sulphur fuels + advanced after-treatment systems for gasoline and diesel vehicles
Lead
Sulphur
GRPE_djrndt_020214.ppt Slide 7
• Achievements to date, future challenges
• Drivers for changes to fuels
• Fuels for advanced conventional vehicles
• Fuel requirements of longer term vehicle options
• CONCAWE activities
• Conclusions
TRANSPORT FUELS FOR THE FUTURE
GRPE_djrndt_020214.ppt Slide 8
FUTURE FUEL NEEDS DEPEND ON VEHICLE TECHNOLOGY
Conventional vehicle developments: Advanced gasoline engines
- Direct Injection, Variable Valve Actuation, Downsizing
: Improved diesel engines- Multiple high pressure injections, Exhaust gas recirculation
: Advanced after-treatment- Lean NOx converters, PM traps, Improved TWC
: Hybrids===> Sulphur-free fuels meet the needs of all these vehicles
: Novel combustion systems e.g. HCCI need more study
Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles: Best way to deliver hydrogen to the vehicle still unclear
- Gasoline-type, methanol, direct hydrogen ?
===> New fuels will be required, but more work needed
GRPE_djrndt_020214.ppt Slide 9
• Changes will be gradual as new vehicles enter the fleet• Increased diesel / reduced gasoline demand expected• Slow penetration of new technologies, e.g. fuel cell vehicles
CONVENTIONAL VEHICLES DOMINATE FUTURE MARKET
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
New
veh
icle
sal
esConventional
Gasoline
DI / Advanced gasoline
DI / Advanced Diesel
IDI Diesel
Hybrids Fuel Cells
Source: EUCAR
GRPE_djrndt_020214.ppt Slide 10
• Achievements to date, future challenges
• Drivers for changes to fuels
• Fuels for advanced conventional vehicles
• Fuel requirements of longer term vehicle options
• CONCAWE activities
• Conclusions
TRANSPORT FUELS FOR THE FUTURE
GRPE_djrndt_020214.ppt Slide 11
LOWER SULPHUR FUELS ENABLE ADVANCED VEHICLES
• Advanced engines and after-treatment systems can achieve very low emissions with low Sulphur fuels
• Influence of other fuel properties becomes small
Source:DETR/SMMT/CONCAWE Particulates programmeand AECC
LD Diesel NEDC emissions
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.09
Euro-2 Euro-3 Euro-3 +DPF
Euro-3 +DPF
DeNOxpotential
Em
issi
on
s (P
M,
NO
x/1
0),
g/k
m
EN590:1999
Sw Class1
UK ULSD
PM NOx
PMlimits
2000
NOxlimits
20052005
2000
GRPE_djrndt_020214.ppt Slide 12
REFINERY CO2 INCREASES WITH FUEL CHANGES
• Future fuel changes need careful evaluation on a well-to-wheels basis
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
0100200300400
Sulphur specification (ppm)
Ad
dit
on
al C
O2 e
mis
sio
ns
(M
t/a) Diesel
Gasoline
Refinery CO2 Emissions, EU-15
Source:CONCAWE
GRPE_djrndt_020214.ppt Slide 13
GHG EMISSIONS NEED WELL-TO-WHEELS APPROACH
• Conventional fuels require a relatively small proportion of energy for their manufacture
• Reducing C/H ratio by hydrogenation is always CO2 negative
• Energy use and GHG emissions in production of alternative fuels can be substantial
• Well-to-wheels approach is needed to identify the best options• Definitive answers not easy
• Results very sensitive to the input assumptions
• Ongoing research effort needed
• CONCAWE actively involved
GRPE_djrndt_020214.ppt Slide 14
ALTERNATIVE FUELS FOR IC ENGINES
• No clear advantage for alternative fuels in Internal Combustion Engines – Hybrid vehicles show promise
Source:Shell, SAE Paper 2001-01-1343
Greenhouse gas emissions, g/km
0
50
100
150
200
250
Gasolin
e TW
C
Diese
l
CNG TW
C
FT Die
sel
DME D
iese
l
Compre
ssed
H2
Gasolin
e hyb
rid
Diese
l hyb
rid
vehicle emission
fuel production
GRPE_djrndt_020214.ppt Slide 15
• Benefits highly dependent on assumptions on use of co-products • Use of all set-aside land in EU-15 would replace < 2% of road transport fuels on an
energy basis
BIOFUELS PROVIDE LIMITED OVERALL ENERGY CREDITB
ette
r
Net Energy Saved
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Base case,no credits
Conventionalfuel
productioncredit
With animalfeed credit
Theoreticalmaximum useof co-products
% o
f bi
ofue
l ene
rgy
RME
Ethanol ex Wheat
Ethanol ex Beet
Source:CONCAWE
Probably achievable
GRPE_djrndt_020214.ppt Slide 16
• Assumptions on agricultural N2O emissions are critical
• Other measures to reduce CO2 emissions are more cost effective
BIOFUELS PROVIDE LIMITED OVERALL GHG CREDITB
ette
r
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Base case +conventional fuelproduction credit
With animal feedcredit
Theoreticalmaximum use of
co-products
RME
Ethanol ex Wheat
Ethanol ex Beet
GHG reduction versus conventional fuels
Source:CONCAWE
RME, accountingfor N2O emissions, refs 4&5
GRPE_djrndt_020214.ppt Slide 17
• Achievements to date, future challenges
• Drivers for changes to fuels
• Fuels for advanced conventional vehicles
• Fuel requirements of longer term vehicle options
• CONCAWE activities
• Conclusions
TRANSPORT FUELS FOR THE FUTURE
GRPE_djrndt_020214.ppt Slide 18
WHY ARE FUEL CELL VEHICLES ATTRACTIVE?
• Potential for high vehicle efficiency– Hence lower CO2 emissions
• Very low or zero regulated pollutant emissions
GM HydroGen 1 TOYOTA FCHV-3
• Cautions: Development at an early stage
Conventional vehicles compete strongly
Best source of hydrogen not yet clear
GRPE_djrndt_020214.ppt Slide 19
FUEL CELLS NEED CLEAN HYDROGEN
• Free hydrogen does not exist naturally– Hydrogen is an energy carrier, not a source
– It has to be generated from naturally occurring compounds
– Implies energy use and hence GHG emissions
• Hydrogen can be delivered to the vehicle in two ways– Direct hydrogen supply to the vehicle
– On-board the vehicle using a hydrogen containing fluid
• More work is needed on production, supply and storage issues– Codes and standards for safe use also important
GRPE_djrndt_020214.ppt Slide 20
RENEWABLE HYDROGEN HAS LONG TERM POTENTIAL
• A renewable source of hydrogen would avoid carbon emissions
Photovoltaics Electrolysis Hydrogen Hydrogen FCV
• Large scale renewable hydrogen remains a long way off– Currently high cost, small volumes– Lack of hydrogen storage/distribution infrastructure
• Near term options still being developed– direct hydrogen– on-board reforming of liquid fuels
GRPE_djrndt_020214.ppt Slide 21
FUEL CELL FUELS - THE OPTIONS
• Simplest vehicle system• No emissions on the
vehicle
• Higher energy density• Low emissions
• Highest energy density• Provides highest well to
wheel efficiency• Infrastructure exists• Low emissions
• Efficient/safe storage solution
• Emissions from hydrogen production
• Low energy density
• Infrastructure development
• Requires on-board processor
• Fuel is toxic and water soluble
• Infrastructure development
• Requires on-board processor
ChallengesBenefits
On-board reforming of hydrocarbon fuels appears the best near term option
• Hydrogen
• Methanol
• Liquid Hydrocarbons, e.g. gasoline
Fuel Supplied to Vehicle
GRPE_djrndt_020214.ppt Slide 22
• Hydrogen from electrolysis is inefficient with conventional electricity– Renewable or nuclear electricity would change the balance
FUEL CELLS AND HYBRIDS OFFER CO2 IMPROVEMENTS
Source: GM-Argonne studybased on US data.European studyunderway
g CO2/mile
Better
Petroleum Natural Gas Electricity
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
GRPE_djrndt_020214.ppt Slide 23
RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY TO HYDROGEN ?
1 GWh of renewable electricity
Feed to power grid toreplace coal-generated power
CO2 avoided 972 t
Produce hydrogen by Electrolysis foruse in fuel cell vehicle to replace gasoline hybrid-electric vehicle
CO2 avoided 390 t
• Producing hydrogen for fuel cell vehicles does not maximise the overall GHG benefit
• Renewable electricity is a limited resource– Can be used in different ways
GRPE_djrndt_020214.ppt Slide 24
• Achievements to date, future challenges
• Drivers for changes to fuels
• Fuels for advanced conventional vehicles
• Fuel requirements of longer term vehicle options
• CONCAWE activities
• Conclusions
TRANSPORT FUELS FOR THE FUTURE
GRPE_djrndt_020214.ppt Slide 25
CONCAWE ACTIVITIES
• CONCAWE committed to principles that developments should be based on sound science, transparency and cost-effectiveness
Technology surveys- emissions legislation, - fuel qualities,- engines/after-treatment
Technical input on legislative developments
Particulate emissions- DG TREN Consortium- GRPE programme
Well to wheels analysis onalternate fuels/vehicles- EUCAR/JRC partnership
Fuel requirements ofadvanced engines- diesel- gasoline
GRPE_djrndt_020214.ppt Slide 26
Co-operative work involving all stakeholders critical to achieving the optimal long term solutions
CONCLUSIONS
• Conventional fuels and vehicles will dominate road transport for the foreseeable future– Lower sulphur maximises the potential of advanced vehicle emissions systems
– Changes to other fuel properties provide little emissions benefit
• Increased application of biofuels needs careful assessment• Fuel requirements of advanced engines need to be assessed as the
systems are developed • Fuel cell vehicles have promise but remain far from volume production
– Large scale renewable hydrogen remains far off
– On-board reforming of hydrocarbon fuel is a promising option
• Sound “well to wheels” studies are key to evaluating future options– CONCAWE actively supporting work in this area