GOP Coalition 1968-2004

• Key Groups– Sunbelt– Evangelicals– Affluent suburbanites– White working class

• Key Policies– Military spending– “Traditional family

values”– Opposition to counter

culture– End support for racial

equality

Silent Majority Speech

I know it may not be fashionable to speak of patriotism or national destiny these days. But I feel it is appropriate to do so on this occasion …And so tonight -- to you, the great silent majority of my fellow Americans -- I ask for your support Nov. 3, 1969

1948 Electoral College Map

1988 Electoral College Map

Old vs. New Democrats1984 Mondale-Hart

1992 Clinton v. Tsongas

2000 Gore v. Bradley

2008 Hilary v. Obama

New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Florida, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Oregon. 5% or less margin 2004

2008 Election

• The Declining White Working Class: Still Central• Election Outcomes in Purple States• White College Graduates: Growing and Trending

Democratic, Especially in Purple States• New Minority Voters: Particularly Important in Fast

Growing Purple States• It’s the Metros, Stupid• Growing Areas are Mostly Trending Democratic

– Source: Ruy Teixeira and William Frey, The Political Geography of America's Purple States: Five Trends That Will Decide the 2008 Election, Brookings Institution Oct 10.

“Real Plumbers of Ohio”

• Declining Income– average annual income of “plumbers, pipefitters and

steamfitters” $47,930. (BLS 2007)– Income increased 15.5% 2000-07, but consumer

prices increased 17.7%

• Health Care – 2000 57% of firms with less than 10 employees– 2000 45% of firms (Kaiser Family Foundation )

• Paul Krugman, Real Plumbers of Ohio, Oct 20, 2008

Matt Dowd on Hispanic Vote

• "We can't survive as a party without getting more of the Hispanic vote.”

• “Both political parties understand that it's a demographic that is probably one of the most important – you know, who's going to have majority status in this country."

• As a realistic goal, we have to get somewhere between 13 and 15 percent of the black vote and 38 to 40 percent of the Hispanic vote

GOP- anti immigrant rhetoric

• GOP Controlled House passes Sensenbrenner Bill- “felonization of all undocumented immigrants”

• NRSC Ad links illegal immigrants to terrorists -http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AjVdALIgfBI

Biggest Protests in a Generation

Bye-bye GOP

% Hispanic Vote, exit polls

Oportunidad

 BO:  I'm Barack Obama and I approve this message. • Voiceover:

The cost of a college education is a real worry for many families. But under the Obama Plan a student can earn the first $4,000 of tuition through community service.Putting a college education within everyone's reach. And the Obama Plan offers scholarships to recruit more teachers to make sure our children are ready (smart/prepared).

Ataques (Radio Version) • ANNOUNCER 1: Wow, have you heard the terrible lies that John McCain and the Republicans are

saying about Barack Obama?  How horrible. • [ANNOUNCER 2:] Well, it doesn't surprise me.  The republicans will say anything to distract the

public from the economy.• [ANNOUNCER 1:] My neighbor - who has 2 kids - lost her job and her health insurance last week. 

And her husband, who works in construction, is about to lose his.  I don't want to hear any more attacks.  I want to know what the candidates will do for us.

• [ANNOUNCER 2:] Well, that's why Barack Obama is my candidate.  Instead of continuing George Bush's same failed policies - like John McCain wants to do - Barack Obama understands what our community needs from a President. He has specific ideas to help us.

• [ANNOUNCER 1:] Under Obama, the middle class will receive three times more relief than with McCain.  Obama will cut our taxes!

•  [ANNOUNCER 2:] And what matters to me is that Obama has a plan to give health insurance to all.  My neighbor will be saved!

• [ANNOUNCER 1:]

Barack Obama and the democrats are the change we need.

Why Not an EDM?

• Swing Member of Coalition– College educated voters– White working class

• Very Safe – Latinos/African Americans– Women