globo.comSprint risk forecasting

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e se fosse possível prever o resultado do seu sprint...?

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Risk is the potential that a chosen action or activity (including the choice of inaction) will lead to a loss

(an undesirable outcome). [...] Potential losses themselves may also be called "risks". Almost any

human endeavor carries some risk.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk

got risk?6Thursday, November 1, 12

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“Risk Management is part of Prince2, part of PMBOK, and part of the CMMI, but you don't o!en see it addressed

explicitly in books on agile methods. I think that's strange.”

Jurgen Appelo8Thursday, November 1, 12

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Risk MatrixRisk RegisterRisk Rating

Risk Mitigation

Agile Risk MatrixAgile Risk RegisterAgile Risk Rating

Agile Risk Mitigation

10Thursday, November 1, 12

Risk MatrixRisk RegisterRisk Rating

Risk Mitigation

Agile Risk MatrixAgile Risk RegisterAgile Risk Rating

Agile Risk Mitigation

10Thursday, November 1, 12

BULLSHIT!BULLSHIT!

BULLSHIT!11Thursday, November 1, 12

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... agile so!ware development is a risk management strategy, because all principles of risk management are

nicely covered when you've implemented an agile process.

Boris Gloger14Thursday, November 1, 12

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Project risk management‣ Risk management do planejamento do projeto (Product Backlog)

‣ Forecast que monitora quantos sprints temos em backlog

‣ Numero ótimo: maior que 2,5 menor que 4

‣ Inventado pelo Danilo Bardusco

Backlog Total

Velocidade média * 3Ref: http://macaubas.com/agile/backlog-ready

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Backlog ready - exemplo‣ Velocity:

‣ 25 story points

‣ Product backlog no início do sprint:

‣ 120 story points

‣ Backlog ready:

‣ 120 / (25 * 3) = 160%

‣ Signi!ca que no início deste sprint, havia backlog para 4.8 sprints

Ref: http://macaubas.com/agile/backlog-ready18Thursday, November 1, 12

Backlog ready - na prática

Ref: http://macaubas.com/agile/backlog-ready

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%

175%

200%

1 2 3 4 5 6

40%

71%88%

118%

170%187%

Backlog ready

Backlog ready Minimo desejável

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e se fosse possível prever o resultado do seu sprint...?

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Sprint risk forecasting

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Sprint risk forecasting

Complexidade média Taxa de sucesso

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Sprint risk forecasting‣ Risk management do planejamento do sprint (Sprint Backlog)

‣ Métrica de forecast do sprint

‣ Numero ótimo: depende do time

‣ Inventado por mim

Insight - há uma relação inversa entre o tamanho médio das histórias planejadas no sprint backlog e a taxa de entrega do sprint!

Ref: TBD - http://macaubas.com/22Thursday, November 1, 12

Sprint risk forecasting‣ Complexidade média:

‣ Média aritmética do sprint backlog (início do sprint)

‣ Complexidade planejada: 26 pontos, 7 histórias

‣ Complexidade média: 26/7 = 3.25

Ref: TBD - http://macaubas.com/23Thursday, November 1, 12

Sprint risk forecasting‣ Taxa de sucesso

‣ % de pontos entregues de fato, em relação ao planejado

‣ Complexidade planejada: 26 pontos

‣ Complexidade entregue: 27 pontos (time entregou um ponto a mais do que o planejado)

‣ Taxa de sucesso: (26/27)*100 = 104%

Ref: TBD - http://macaubas.com/24Thursday, November 1, 12

Tamanho médio - na prática

Ref: http://macaubas.com/agile/backlog-ready

0

1

2

4

5

6

1 2 3 4 50%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

104% 107% 100%

69% 77%

3.3 3.2

4.0

5.6

4.9

Tamanho média das histórias

Complexidade Media Taxa de sucesso

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E daí?

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Sprint risk forecasting‣ É possível prever o resultado do sprint (taxa de sucesso)

baseado em dados históricos!

‣ Regressão linear simples (least square estimates),

‣ Entrada = complexidade média das histórias do sprint atual.

‣ Entrada = histórico de compl. média & taxa de sucesso

‣ Saída = forecast da taxa de sucesso do sprint que está começando

Ref: TBD - http://macaubas.com/27Thursday, November 1, 12

Sprint risk forecasting

Ref: TBD - http://macaubas.com/

Sprints 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18Compl. planejada

Compl. entregue

Qtd planejado

Qtd entregueComplexidade MediaTaxa de sucesso

20 32 16 17 37 30 36 40 47 50 34 51 19 21 45 24 40 41

50 43 9 32 29 35 31 40 53 62 46 46 20 24 45 34 42 47

4 9 6 5 12 8 9 8 14 17 10 16 9 10 20 10 14 14

20 17 6 13 13 13 8 9 17 22 14 17 10 13 21 15 15 18

1.00 1.88 2.67 1.31 2.85 2.31 4.50 4.44 2.76 2.27 2.43 3.00 1.90 1.62 2.14 1.60 2.67 2.28

250% 134% 56% 188% 78% 117% 86% 100% 113% 124% 135% 90% 105% 114% 100% 142% 105% 115%

19o Sprint:Complexidade planejada: 48Quantidade de histórias: 16Complexidade média: 3

Taxa de sucesso prevista:102%

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Sprint risk forecasting in action

Ref: TBD - http://macaubas.com/

Taxa de sucesso prevista Nível de risco

maior ou igual a 95% Baixo

entre 95% e 80% Médio

entre 80% e 70% Alto

menor que 70% Fujam para as colinas!

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Sprint risk forecasting‣ Massa de dados:

‣ Coleta em 2 times por 18 sprints (G1 e Ego)

‣ Coleta em 3 times por 9 sprints, e contando (Webmedia)

‣ Slideshare: http://slidesha.re/Q7KjVy

Ref: TBD - http://macaubas.com/32Thursday, November 1, 12

globo.com

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