Post on 13-Feb-2017
Global Passenger Car Powertrain and
Electric Vehicle Market: 2015 Outlook
Pietro Boggia, Principal Consultant
16th June 2015
2
Our Industry Coverage
Aerospace and Defense Infrastructure Information and
Communication Technologies
Healthcare Environment and Building
Technologies
Energy and Power
Systems
Chemicals, Materials
and Food
Electronics and
Security
Industrial Automation
and Process Control
Automotive
Transportation and Logistics
Consumer
Technologies
Minerals and Mining
3
Our Automotive & Transportation Industry Coverage Includes
Personal and Freight Mobility
3
Mega Trends
Impacting Mobility
Mobility Integration
New Mobility
business models
like car sharing
Corporate Mobility
New mobility
products and
services
Connectivity
Powertrain
Chassis
Safety & ADAS
Electric Vehicles
Aftermarket &
Distribution
Vehicle Interior
systems for
passenger,
commercial &
off-road vehicles
Rolling Stock
(Light Rail, Metro,
MainLine, High
Speed Rail)
Infrastructure
(signaling, track,
station)
Bus & BRT
solutions
Advanced
technologies
Urban Logistics
Intermodal
New Business
Models
High Speed
Logistics
Courier, Express
and Parcel
3PL & 4PL
Connected
Logistics
Intelligent
Transport System
(V2X, traffic mgt,
congestion
charging, tolling,
parking, etc.)
IT Integration
Rail Infrastructure
Road
Infrastructure
Sea Ports
Mobility Automotive Rail & Public
Transport
Logistics &
Supply Chain Infrastructure
4
Presentation Agenda F
utu
re T
ren
ds
in
Pa
ss
en
ge
r C
ar
Po
we
rtra
in –
Wh
at
are
th
e
imp
lic
ati
on
s?
Global Passenger Car Powertrain Outlook
1. Global Powertrain Fuel Mix
2. Analysis: Diesel vs Gasoline Focus on India, Europe
3. Impact of Air Quality Concerns on Powertrain
4. Powertrain Report China, India and Brazil
Selected Powertrain Technology Market Estimations- Snapshot
1. Gasoline Diesel Injection (GDI) Roadmap and Market Analysis
2. Gasoline Particulate Filter (GPF) Roadmap and Market Analysis
3. Global Diesel After-treatment System Adoption Hot Spots
4. Market for High Speed Transmissions
Global Passenger Car Electric Vehicle Outlook
1. Roadmap of Powertrain Electrification
2. Review of 2014 Global Sales of Electric Vehicles and Highlights
3. Fuel Cell Vehicles Overview
4. EV Infrastructure EU status update and issues
5
73.0–76.0%
16.0–18.0%
4.5-5.5%
Powertrain Market: Expected Light Vehicle* Unit Shipment by Region and Powertrain Mix, Global, 2015
~72.1 Million
2015
Key: Light vehicles include personal vehicles (PVs) and light commercial vehicles (LCVs). The powertrain mix in China and Japan consider only PVs. The mild
and full hybrids in Japan are shown under the “full hybrid” legend. Mild and full hybrids are shown as a part of gasoline and diesel in China, India, South
America, and Korea. Total for 2015 represents the sum of regions shown. *Others in 2015 goalpost include mild hybrids, full hybrids and EVs.
Others*
3.0–4.0%
97.8- 98.2%
69.5– 71.5% 45-46%
44–46%
91.5–93%
33.5–34.5% 73.0–76.0%
1.2–2.0%
0.7–1.1% 50-51%
50.5– 52.5%
3.0-4%
9.5–10.5%
18.0–21.0%
3.5-4.5%
2.0–2.5%
0.2–0.5%
56.5–58.5%
4.0–6.0%
0.5–0.9%
0.9–1.4%
26.5-28.%
1.0–1.5%
2.5–3.5%
0.2–0.4%
1.0–1.5%
0.2–0.3%
0.5–0.7%
0.5–1%
~0.03%
0.1–0.2%
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
China Japan India Europe NorthAmerica
SouthAmerica
South Korea
Gasoline Diesel Alt. Fuels Mild Hybrids Full Hybrids EVs
Un
its
(M
illio
n)
Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2014. Source: LMC Automotive; Frost & Sullivan
Global Powertrain Mix—Unit Shipment by Region Snapshot European powertrains will be seen receding from diesels, while developing markets like India will continue to
witness increasing diesel engine uptake to meet higher fuel economy requirements.
6
European Powertrain Market—Unit Shipment, Diesel vs. Gasoline Trend Higher degree penalization for diesel cars and LEZ strategies by major markets led to a marginal decline of
diesel share in 2014; this trend is expected to continue through 2015.
(0.4%) 1.7% (3.0%) 0.5% 1.1% 2.3% (0.5)% (2.2%) (0.5%)
33.8 34.6
61.2 59.5
29.7 33.0 51.0 51.3
30.8 28.9
63.5 64.2
31.1 31.6 33.2 35.2 48.8 49.3
64.8 64.0
37.3 39.0
67.0 64.0 47.4 47.9
53.9 55.0
24.8 27.1
67.1 66.5 61.5 59.3 49.8 49.2
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014
Gasoline Diesel
YoY
Diesel %
Change
(‘13–14)
Gaso
lin
e a
nd
Die
sel S
hare
(%
)
Powertrain Market: Passenger Vehicle Sales by Country–Gasoline vs. Diesel Share, Europe, 2013–2014
Belgium* Finland France Germany Italy NL Spain* Sweden UK
Note: All figures are rounded. Source: Respective national automotive agencies; Frost & Sullivan *Frost Estimate based on latest data available
37.4
37.6
37.7
52.1
51.7
51.3
2013
2014
2015
Gasoline
Diesel
0.4%
2013
2014
2015
5.7M diesel cars sold
5.5M diesel cars sold
`5.7M diesel cars(projected) 1.0%
0.4% 3.6%
Powertrain Market: Passenger Vehicle–Gasoline vs. Diesel Share& Diesel Sales, Europe, 2013–2015*
7
Air Quality Concerns and Risk - Europe, 2020 Outlook Higher pollution levels in UK, France and Germany and the tougher targets to be met will essentially result in
tougher targets for Automakers too; calling for increased power train optimization and alternative propulsion.
United Kingdom: Central London
to have highest NOx levels by 2020.
40% of EURO VI compliant vehicles
in central London will be targeted by
2020
France: France has to bring down its
GHG emissions by 14% till 2020(over
2005 levels). road measures.
Sweden: NOx levels to
decline at over 2.5% every
year to meet 2020 targets.
Germany: Increasing
emissions from power sector
will put additional load on
transportation . Auto makers
need to cut down emissions
by 27% by 2020.
Italy: 3% annual decrease in NOx levels is
required to meet 2020 targets.
Czech republic/
Slovakia: Road
transport contributing
close to 40% of overall
NOx emissions.
No Risk
High
Risk
Air
Quality-
Good
Air
Quality-
Moderate
Source: Government portals for Air quality, Country Pollution Fact sheets, Frost & Sullivan Analysis
Netherlands: The current
network of 13 LEZ will expand
covering larger area, as about
30% cut down in NOx levels will
be required by 2020, from current
levels.
8
Key Powertrain Highlights of 2014 - India, China & Brazil Light vehicle sales went up in China and Japan, while it declined in Turkey. India witnessed major technology
advantages like engine downsizing, GDI and twin scroll turbochargers in the C/D segments.
Sales Outlook:
Sales of passenger cars reached close to 19.7 million units in 2014 clocking 9.9% growth over 2013 levels.
Chinese car manufacturers increased their sales by 4.1% over previous years.
Technology Outlook: The share of direct injected engines was about 14-15% among gasoline vehicles.
About 16-18% of gasoline engines were boosted.
The production of 8 speed transmissions got a boost as result of increased adoption from European OEMs;
Dual clutch transmissions continued on their growth track with growth rate over 25%, from 2013 levels.
China sold close to 74,800 New Energy Vehicles(NEV); more than three fold the sales in 2013.
.
Sales Outlook: The combined sales of passenger cars, utility vehicles and
vans are expected to reach about 2.6 million as the financial year closes in
India. Gasoline will have powered about 45-46% of vehicles, while diesel,
about 52-53%.
Technology Outlook:
• Directed injected gasoline engines came fitted in the B/C segments cars
like, VW POLO TSI and VENTO TSI.
• These also feature dual scroll turbocharger for gasoline engines,
capable of giving 40% higher output than the naturally aspirated, port
injected counterparts. TAT also introduced gasoline turbocharging in it’s
‘ZEST’ , with a Revotron engine.
• Engine downsizing also gained focus , with FORD’s 1L Ecoboost, VW’s
1.5L engines and Hyundai’s 1.1L 3 cylinder CRDi engines gaining
popularity.
• Popular models like VW POLO, FORD Ecosport and Fiesta also introduced
DCT versions targeting city drivers, primarily.
China
India
Powertrain Market: Highlights from Key Regions- India, China, Japan and Turkey, 2014
Source: Respective Country/Regional Automotive Associations, Frost & Sullivan
Sales Outlook:
In the backdrop of weak economy and poor exports
vehicle sales totaled about 3.5 Million, declining by
7.1% over 2013 levels.
Technology Outlook:
40% of cars sold had displacement below 1L, over
59% were between 1 and 2L, while engines above
2.0L displacement constituted 0.7%.
Diesel and gasoline cars had 5-6% each market
share, while flex fuel cars remained the majority
with 88% penetration.
Electric Vehicle sales reached close to 900 units. In
2013, the figure was less than 500 units.
LATAM Region
-Brazil
9
Presentation Agenda F
utu
re T
ren
ds
in
Pa
ss
en
ge
r C
ar
Po
we
rtra
in –
Wh
at
are
th
e
imp
lic
ati
on
s?
Global Passenger Car Powertrain Outlook
1. Global Powertrain Fuel Mix
2. Analysis: Diesel vs Gasoline Focus on India, Europe
3. Impact of Air Quality Concerns on Powertrain
4. Powertrain Report China, India and Brazil
Selected Powertrain Technology Market Estimations- Snapshot
1. Gasoline Diesel Injection (GDI) Roadmap and Market Analysis
2. Gasoline Particulate Filter (GPF) Roadmap and Market Analysis
3. Global Diesel After-treatment System Adoption Hot Spots
4. Market for High Speed Transmissions
Global Passenger Car Electric Vehicle Outlook
1. Roadmap of Powertrain Electrification
2. Review of 2014 Global Sales of Electric Vehicles and Highlights
3. Fuel Cell Vehicles Overview
4. EV Infrastructure EU status update and issues
10
2014
14.8 – 15.0
million
Powertrain Market: GDI Unit Production Forecast by Region, Global, 2014 and 2015
Key: The centre graph represents data for 2015 for select OEMs. The goalpost charts represent data for the entire global market, not only for the OEMs in the centre graph.
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Asia Pacific Europe North America South America
Un
its
(Mill
ion
)
BMW Daimler Fiat Chrysler Ford GM Hyundai PSA Renault Nissan VW
4.8–5.0
5.2-5.5
4.0–4.3
0.08–0.1
2015
17.8–18.0
million
1. Europe will see 10-11% increase in the number of GDI engines produced primarily to move closer to EURO VI targets, in the
context of declining diesel uptake.
2. NA & APAC: Gasoline dominated markets like NA and APAC will see significant advancement in DI technology, and hence
will be a principal element in all almost OEMs’ strategies. NA and APAC both to witness 15-17% growth in GDI engines over
2014 levels.
OEM
Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2014. Source: LMC, Frost & Sullivan
GDI Unit Production Forecast by Region OEMs like VW, FORD and Renault Nissan are expected to embrace GDI technology at an accelerated rate,
in the backdrop of EURO VI implementation and tightening CAFÉ/EPA targets
11
Gasoline Direct Injection Production vs Gasoline Particulate Filter Simulated Scenario Forecast, 2014
and 2020
Trend in Gasoline Engines - Market for GDI Engines and GPF Gasoline Particulate filters will be reach penetration of around 65% in Western Europe.
Gasoline Particulate Filter: OEM Market Share Analysis,
Europe and North America, 2020
.
Note: The Market share analysis has been based on the Gasoline Particulate Filter production
volumes of each OEM. Others include Hyundai, Toyota, Honda, Geely, Fiat-Chrysler and Mazda.
Volkswagen 26%
Daimler 13%
BMW 13%
Ford 13%
GM 10%
Renault-Nissan
9%
PSA 4%
Tata Group, 3%
Others 9%
Note: The penetration percent of Gasoline Particulate Filter within the Gasoline Direct Injection portfolio is shown. All figures are rounded; the base year is 2014
Gasoline Direct Injection
Production
Gasoline Particulate Filter
Production
Western Europe North America
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2014 2020
Veh
icle
Pro
du
cti
on
(M
illio
n)
50-51
thousand
4.0-4.1
million
5.9-6.1
million
3.7-3.9
million
65%
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2014 2020
4.5-4.6
million
6.8-6.9
million
0.6-0.7
million
11%
Western Europe is expected to be the
biggest market with 65% of the GDI
engines to have fitted with GPF.
VW, Daimler and BMW are leading
adopters and expected to take up 52% of
market share
12
Note: For a list of abbreviations click here.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Global Diesel After-treatment System Adoption Hot Spots SCR technology adoption is high in North America, Europe, and China due to stringent emission norms. Japan,
South Korea, Australia, Latin America, and Russia will show progress if new emission regulations are launched.
High adoption of SCR
Use of only DOC & DPF
Minimal adoption of SCR
Use of EGR
No adoption of SCR
Use of LNT
Total SCR Market: Technology Hot Spots, Global, 2014–2021
North
America
Latin
America
Europe Russia
China
India
Japan and
South Korea
Australia
and
New Zealand
13
High-speed Transmission Market: Unit Shipment Forecast by Region and Technology, Global,
2014 and 2015
2015
~3.3-3.6
Million
22.0-23.0%
71.0-72.0%
5.0-6.0%
0.5%-0.6%
Key: Graph in centre represents data for 2015.
Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2014. Source: Frost & Sullivan
High-speed Transmissions—Unit Shipment Forecast by Region and
Technology Transmissions will continue to speed up this year, with 9-speeds increasing their penetration to about 22-23 %.
64.3%
69.0%
76.3%
58.3%
22.0%
26.5%
19.8%
41.2%
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
Europe North America China Japan
Mil
lio
ns
High Speed DCT 10 speed AT 9 Speed AT 8 Speed AT
13.6%
3.1%
3.9%
0.5%
Millio
ns
1.4%
2014
~2.5–3.0
Million
16.0–
17.0%
81.0–
82.0%
3.0–4.0%
14
Source: Frost & Sullivan
OEM High Speed Transmission Introduction Strategies, 2015-2016 Honda and VW are expected to increase penetration of DCT primarily in to their midsize/sports segments,
while 9/10 speed ATs will penetrate more in to larger segments of Chrysler, FORD and Hyundai.
MP
V/
Pic
k
UP
/Va
n
SU
V
Ex
ec
-
Lu
xu
ry
Me
diu
m
Ba
sic
Sm
all
Sp
ort
s
BMW Daimler Fiat
Chrysler FORD GM Honda Hyundai TATA Toyota VW
Mini
Marquee
, Sub 1-
Series
X1, X2
8 – Speed AT
Coupe
Models,
CLA
class
M-Class,
GLK, GL
Class
Compact
CUV, 100,
Dart,
Compass
Durango
Cherokee,
Journey
MKS,
Taurus
RWD
Sedan
Mustang
MKC,
Focus,
C-Max,
Fusion,
Mondeo
Expedition
Navigator
Sierra,
Silverado
Compact
CUV,
Encore,
Cruze,
Malibu
Impala,
LaCrosse
LTS
Accord,
TLX
Acura
Premium
Coupe
Pilot
i40, iX35,
C’eed
Equus,
Genesis,
K9
Mohave,
Kia SUV
Sub XF
Freelander
/ Evoque
Camry,
GS Series
Land-
cruiser,
Highlande
r
A6, A8
A4
Q5, Q7
9 – Speed AT 10 – Speed AT DCT
Powertrain Market: Expected Transmission Type Introductions in Key Segments, 2015 & 2016
15
Presentation Agenda F
utu
re T
ren
ds
in
Pa
ss
en
ge
r C
ar
Po
we
rtra
in –
Wh
at
are
th
e
imp
lic
ati
on
s?
Global Passenger Car Powertrain Outlook
1. Global Powertrain Fuel Mix
2. Analysis: Diesel vs Gasoline Focus on India, Europe
3. Impact of Air Quality Concerns on Powertrain
4. Powertrain Report China, India and Brazil
Selected Powertrain Technology Market Estimations- Snapshot
1. Gasoline Diesel Injection (GDI) Roadmap and Market Analysis
2. Gasoline Particulate Filter (GPF) Roadmap and Market Analysis
3. Global Diesel After-treatment System Adoption Hot Spots
4. Market for High Speed Transmissions
Global Passenger Car Electric Vehicle Outlook
1. Roadmap of Powertrain Electrification
2. Review of 2014 Global Sales of Electric Vehicles and Highlights
3. Fuel Cell Vehicles Overview
4. EV Infrastructure EU status update and issues
16
Total EVs are likely to reach 10 million units by 2020. Fuel cell vehicle
success depends on Toyota, Hyundai and Honda
70,000
75,000
80,000
85,000
90,000
95,000
100,000
105,000
110,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Tho
usa
nd
s
ICE HEV PHEV BEV FCEV
FCEV (0.1%)
HEV (5.6%)
ICE (91.4%)
PHEV (1.6%)
BEV (1.3%) New Energy
Vehicle policy
showing results
Shift from full
hybrids to
PHEVs in the
West
Beginning of
48V HEVs?
Witness EVs growth
increase and HEV
growth shrink
Total EV Market: Sales Forecasts for ICE, HEV, PHEV, BEV, and FCEV, Global, 2013–2020
Uptake of hybrid
electric vehicles
globally
17
Global Power train Split by Propulsion Type- Unit Shipments 2013-2015 The need for increased fuel economy and the emergence of clean diesel technologies are propelling the
growth of diesels in North America and India, at small rates. Hybrids continue to grow globally.
88.5 88.2 87.5-88.5
6.2 6.2 6.3-6.6
5.3 5.5 5.4-5.8
0.01 0.03 0.04
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
2013 2014 2015
Gasoline Diesel Flex Fuel EV
Powertrain Market: Unit Shipments Split by Propulsion Type, Regional, 2013–2015
Brazil China
99.6 99.4
98.9-99.3
0.3
0.3
0.3-0.5
0.1 0.3
0.6-0.8
98.0
98.2
98.4
98.6
98.8
99.0
99.2
99.4
99.6
99.8
100.0
2013 2014 2015
Gasoline Diesel EV/HEV
93.5% 92.5-93.5 91.6
2..5%
2.6-3.5 3..5-3.8
3.6% 3.8-4.2 3.8-4.2
0.4% 0.5-0.6 0.7-0.9
86.0
88.0
90.0
92.0
94.0
96.0
98.0
100.0
2013 2014 2015
Gasoline Diesel CNG/LPGHybrid EV
71.3% 69-69.5% 69-69.5%
27.0% 28-28.5% 28-28.5%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
2013 2014 2015
Gasoline Diesel Hybrids EVs
0.7% 1.2-1.4% 1.2-1.4%
46.4% 45-46% 45.6%
2% ~2% 3-4%
51.7% 52-53% 51.5-52.5%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015
Gasoline Diesel Alternative Propulsion
North America
Japan India
Vehicle type with maximum growth in 2014 Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2014.. Data are based on Frost and Sullivan estimates where
unavailable. Source: Respective national automotive agencies; Frost & Sullivan
18
Nissan Leaf
BMW i3
Renault
Zoe Nissan Leaf Tesla
Model S
Mitsubishi
Outlander
BMW i3
Mitsubishi
Outlander Nissan
Leaf
Nissan
Leaf
Kandi EV
Nissan
Leaf
Kia Ray
Total EV Market: Percent Sales Breakdown by Region,
Global, 2014
Total EV Market: Percent Sales Breakdown by EV Type,
Global, 2014
Total EV Market - Sales by Country, Global, 2014
Over 480,000 electric vehicles to be sold globally in 2015 with North
America accounting for 36% of the market
Note : Numbers have been extrapolated for November and December; Source: Frost & Sullivan
19
Country AC DC Key Operators
Austria 1,500 18
Austrian Mobile Power,
Spar
Belgium 1,530 20
Siemens, Park & Charge,
Rittal
Denmark 1,190 56 EON, Clever
France 6,050 110
EDF, Park & Charge, Vinci
Autoroutes
Germany 4,340 53 RWE, Bosch
Netherlands 8,580 80 Epyon, Alfen, ABB
Norway 5,720 96 Transnova, City of Oslo
Switzerland 1,020 30 Park & Charge, Alpiq
United
Kingdom 3,780 110 Podpoint, Elektromotive,
Chargemaster
3,780
5,720
6.050
8,580
1.020
4.340
1,190
Total EV Market: Charging Station Installation Base, Europe, 2014
EV Charging Infrastructure in Europe France and the Netherlands lead the way in establishing EV charging infrastructure; however, the United
Kingdom has the maximum DC charging stations at 110 stations.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
20
For Additional Information
Pietro Boggia
Principal Consultant
Automotive and Transportation
+44 20 7915 7890
pietro.boggia@frost.com