Post on 12-Oct-2020
Global Climate Impacts
in Agriculture and Coasts
Juan-Carlos Ciscar, Miles Perry, Jon Pycroft, Jan Abrell 7th Annual Meeting IAMC, University of Maryland
November 18, 2014
2013 European Commission Adaptation Communication, Action 4: Bridge the knowledge gap
§ “In particular, the Commission will promote EU-wide vulnerability assessments, notably by supporting the Joint Research Centre in its work on estimating the economic implications of climate change, and will undertake a comprehensive review of what global climate change will mean for the EU”
Research Question
Approach
EU and RoW perspective: economic transmission channels (general equilibrium model) • Trade effects (EU main trade partners)
• Terms-of-trade (effects on relative prices, e.g. ag prices)
• Factor mobility (across sectors and regions; migration) Review of global climate impacts • Agriculture, coasts (from FP7 ClimateCost project)
• Possible additional impact areas (2015)
RoW climate impacts
Outline
1. The CGE model: CAGE
2. Agriculture impacts
3. Coast impacts
4. On-going and planned work
2. 1. The CGE model: CAGE
CGE Economic modelling (CAGE)
• Multi-sector (19), multi-country (25) Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, based on GTAP data • Idealised setup without market imperfections or rigidities • Market equilibria in long term • Ignores short-term adjustment costs
• CGE as an accounting framework: direct and indirect effects; includes cross-sectoral and cross-country effects
• Comparative static framework: impact of future climate change (2080s) on today’s economy
• Possibility of using maximum entropy to simulate impact on future economy
2. 2. Agriculture impacts
Agriculture model
DSSAT Yield changes for A1B (baseline) and E1 (2C) average runs Farm-level adaptation (e.g. change in crops) Assuming there is not constraint on water irrigation or fertilizers use Shocks interpreted in the CGE model as productivity changes in the agriculture sector
Yield % change
A1B E1 China 11 1 Japan -‐13 -‐5 Korea -‐10 -‐2 Indonesia -‐14 -‐6 Russia 7 3 India -‐18 -‐6 USA -‐9 -‐3 Brazil 1 -‐4 UK & Ireland 6 11 Northern Europe 24 15 Central Europe (North) -‐2 0 Southern Europe -‐20 -‐4 Rest of South Asia -‐21 -‐4 Rest of South-‐east Asia -‐21 -‐8 Rest of South America 0 0 WORLD -‐5 -‐2
Agriculture results, % GDP
A1B E1 China 0.99 0.08 Japan -‐0.28 -‐0.10 Korea -‐0.33 -‐0.05 Indonesia -‐1.50 -‐0.67 Russia 0.42 0.19 India -‐2.63 -‐0.88 USA -‐0.07 -‐0.02 Brazil -‐0.01 -‐0.18 UK & Ireland -‐0.01 0.06 Northern Europe 0.26 0.19 Central Europe (North) -‐0.11 -‐0.03 Southern Europe -‐0.59 -‐0.11 Rest of South Asia -‐2.64 -‐0.48 Rest of South-‐east Asia -‐1.65 -‐0.53 Rest of South America 0.02 0.01 WORLD -‐0.23 -‐0.08
4. 3. Coast impacts
DIVA model
Global estimates of sea and river flood damages, land loss, salinization damages and forced migration costs Three SLR scenarios by 2080s (including very rapid SLR): 0.47m, 1.12m, 1.75m Public adaptation is not considered Shocks interpreted in the CGE model (all damage components; not just land loss) as either capital loss or additional obliged consumption
SLR shock (total 2080s direct damage, bn$)
Floods+Salinstn+LandLoss Migra@on A1B RAHM HIGH A1B RAHM HIGH
(0.47m) (1.12m) (1.75m) (0.47m) (1.12m) (1.75m) China 64.2 95.8 118.4 5.7 4.5 4.5 Japan 4.8 11.3 15.2 0 6.9 4.6 Korea 11.5 20.4 23.6 0 3.8 1 Indonesia 3.2 6.8 9.8 0.1 0.6 0.5 Russia 1.6 2.3 2.8 0.4 0.3 0.2 India 24.2 30.5 36 0.7 0.5 0.6 USA 10.3 18.4 25.2 0.4 17.2 17.2 Brazil 0.9 2.3 3.8 0 0.6 0.6 UK & Ireland 4 7 9.1 0.3 9.1 8.2 Northern Europe 1.6 4.3 6.4 0 3.5 3.5 Central Europe (North) 14.8 23.4 31.4 0.1 7.2 10.9 Southern Europe 1.5 3 4.5 0.3 3.3 3 Rest of South Asia 16.3 23.2 30.8 0.4 0.8 1.2 Rest of South-‐east Asia 41.8 82 101.5 1.2 6.6 2.4 Rest of South America 20.3 24.2 28.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 WORLD 242 385 486 11 75 64
SLR shock (% of capital loss)
A1B RAHM HIGH (0.47m) (1.12m) (1.75m)
China 0.08 0.18 0.27 Japan 0.49 1.21 1.73 Korea 0.42 1.08 1.42 Indonesia 0.12 0.47 0.82 Russia 0.04 0.06 0.09 India 0.05 0.12 0.18 USA 0.28 0.57 0.9 Brazil 0.03 0.13 0.25 UK & Ireland 0.31 0.62 0.95 Northern Europe 0.34 1.09 1.86 Central Europe (North) 1.26 2.12 3.41 Southern Europe 0.18 0.36 0.6 Rest of South Asia 0.13 0.39 0.71 Rest of South-‐east Asia 0.56 1.69 2.43 Rest of South America 0.18 0.48 0.84
Coast results, % GDP
A1B RAHM HIGH (0.47m) (1.12m) (1.75m)
China -‐0.1 -‐0.21 -‐0.3 Japan -‐0.21 -‐0.53 -‐0.75 Korea -‐0.22 -‐0.57 -‐0.74 Indonesia -‐0.08 -‐0.32 -‐0.55 Russia -‐0.03 -‐0.04 -‐0.06 India -‐0.04 -‐0.09 -‐0.13 USA -‐0.08 -‐0.17 -‐0.27 Brazil -‐0.02 -‐0.07 -‐0.13 UK & Ireland -‐0.15 -‐0.35 -‐0.49 Northern Europe -‐0.18 -‐0.61 -‐1 Central Europe (North) -‐0.61 -‐1.07 -‐1.72 Southern Europe -‐0.1 -‐0.21 -‐0.34 Rest of South Asia -‐0.09 -‐0.28 -‐0.52 Rest of South-‐east Asia -‐0.37 -‐1.12 -‐1.57 Rest of South America -‐0.1 -‐0.28 -‐0.48 WORLD -‐0.15 -‐0.33 -‐0.5
Coast results, % Welfare
A1B RAHM HIGH (0.47m) (1.12m) (1.75m)
China -‐2.18 -‐4.14 -‐5.63 Japan -‐0.56 -‐1.7 -‐2.16 Korea -‐1.28 -‐3.96 -‐4.22 Indonesia -‐0.54 -‐2.2 -‐3.44 Russia -‐0.17 -‐0.21 -‐0.23 India -‐0.77 -‐1.52 -‐2.22 USA -‐0.18 -‐0.58 -‐0.79 Brazil -‐0.08 -‐0.4 -‐0.66 UK & Ireland -‐0.37 -‐1.29 -‐1.58 Northern Europe -‐0.57 -‐2.56 -‐3.68 Central Europe (North) -‐1.38 -‐2.71 -‐4.24 Southern Europe -‐0.23 -‐0.61 -‐0.88 Rest of South Asia -‐0.98 -‐3 -‐5.2 Rest of South-‐east Asia -‐3.3 -‐10.42 -‐12.91 Rest of South America -‐0.46 -‐1.31 -‐2.14 WORLD -‐0.54 -‐1.4 -‐1.91
1.75m SLR, % Welfare
4. 4. On-going and planned work
Possible extensions
Energy River floods Human health Exploratory work on human migration
Rigidities in CGE model (ECONADAPT project)
Elasticities of substitution Adjustment costs in good and factor markets Factors mobility Other structural features
FP7 HELIX Project
High-End cLimate Impacts and eXtremes (HELIX), 4 years, 16 partners, coordinated by MetOffice, UK
• What do 4ºC and 6ºC worlds look like compared to 2ºC? • What are the consequences of different adaptation
choices?
Impacts and adaptation at 2ºC, 4ºC, 6ºC • Global • Europe, Sub-Saharan Africa and the South Asia Impacts covered: River floods, Water availability, Agriculture,
Ecosystems, Coastal flooding, Energy, Transport, Human health (additionally: Food security and Migration)
Thanks for your attention! juan-carlos.ciscar@ec.europa.eu