Post on 13-Jan-2016
description
Futuring the changing world for Industrial Technologies
Augusta Maria PaciMaria Stella Chiacchio
ITIA-CNR
Third International Seville Conference onFuture-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA):
Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making
16th- 17th October 2008
Futuring the changing world for Industrial Technologies
Rationale
1. FTA in research and innovation is the relevant process for planning collaborative development of future industrial technologies.
2. New approach to technology foresight – coupled with the roadmapping and impact assessment for implementation.
3. The Rolling programme method to bring R&I forward processing multiple inputs from multiple stakeholders to produce a unique common direction for multiple stakeholders serving as a new input for action.
Futuring the changing world for Industrial Technologies
Rolling Programme: FRIM cycle
F R
IM
VISION
Foresight: demand driven process for future technologies with attractiveness and feasibility analysis.
Roadmapping: open process for screening and planning of the RTD prioritization of next generation technologies with feasibility and traceability of industrial expected impacts by time horizons.
Implementation: the process towards consistency of efforts for stakeholders interventions. Plans of priorities to minimizing threats, maximizing opportunities and reducing risks for new HAV products/services, processes and business models.
Monitoring: the assessment and evaluation process towards innovation knowledge capture and CBA.
Futuring the changing world for Industrial Technologies
Rolling Programme visibility
Rolling Programme ensures through Knowledge Management for Innovation effectiveness, efficiency and consistency to futuring-oriented technologies for production systems emerging paradigms.
The goal is to track and make the end to end visibility of the advancements towards turning knowledge into innovation.
EPPLab, 2008
Futuring the changing world for Industrial Technologies
The empirical study: Impact assessment
The autonomous study “Transectoral technologies’ impact on sectors”, carried on by EPPLab in the FP6 SSA Leadership project, deals with:
• RTD pre-competitive areas analyzing the industrial expected impact at European level;
• Industrial targets of innovation of 25 manufacturing sectors that are analyzed with regard to the futuring expected impact of 49 RTD areas;
• the synthetic Impact view that is in the “Initial Impact Matrix” consistent with the ManuFuture reference model.
Leadership Information Base
• 25 manufacturing sectors and Sectoral roadmaps;
•147 industrial targets from the industrial survey of 120 KOLs;
• 49 RTD macro areas published in the Overall ManuFuture Roadmap;
• 491 technology fact sheets produced by the Leadership Roadmapping.
The Background: Leadership SSA project
Futuring the changing world for Industrial Technologies
www.leadership-ssa.org Empirical study: Initial Impact Matrix
Main results:
• the cross-referenced demand driven prioritization of RTD areas
• 100 top topics for Call Topics for the Stakeholders and for the European Commission multi-annual planning in the FP7 Programme 4.3 “New Production”.
6 ManuFuture SRA Pillars Interested Sectors
temporal distribution of sectors’ innovation
Futuring the changing world for Industrial Technologies
Application of demand driven Futuring Model
Demand driven
FRIM cycle
Futuring the changing world for Industrial Technologies
Empirical study: Operative method flow
INFORMATION ANALYSISof sectoral Roadmaps
Focus on:• sectors HVA targets;• Time horizon;• multi-sectoral perspective;• multi-technological perspective.
EXTRACTION Sectors’ targets
CATCHING
RELATIONSHIP
Sectors’ targets content and time horizon
Macro areas and sectors, giving:• Traceability of transectoral macro areas by the multiple sectors demand;• Visibility of time horizon;• Prioritization of macro areas.
Hierarchy of precompetitive innovation needs:1. A transectoral technology need2. A multisectoral need3. A sector need
• Initial Impact matrix• Twofold view matrix
SCOPESCOPE RESULTSRESULTS
Futuring the changing world for Industrial Technologies
Development of FTA in research and innovation
RESEARCH
(RTD Macro area)
INNOVATION
(Sector)
Focus Technological driver Innovation driver
Relation 1 macro area: n sectors 1 sector: n macro areas
RESULTS
Assess Multi-sectoral impact of RTD areas
Impact of transectoral technologies at sector level
Trace Transectoral feature R&D direction of sector innovation
Identify time distribution Time distribution of macroareas Time distribution of sector innovation
Prioritize Macro areas
(Common and advanced)
Transectoral technologies at sector level
Show the perspective Multi-sectoral Multi-technological
Empirical Study: twofold view
Futuring the changing world for Industrial Technologies
FTA in research: example of RTD Macro Area view
Demand: 25 Sectors
Offer: RTD Macro area
Direct element:Time horizonContinuous need
Indirect element:TraceabilityExpected impact (grey color)
Indirect element:TraceabilityNo expected impact (white color)
Futuring the changing world for Industrial Technologies
FTA in research and innovation for policy and decision making
The empirical study:
• supports European stakeholders, researchers, Industries and Policy Bodies at multilevel for competitiveness and sustainability to develop new capabilities to generate anticipatory initiatives that require impact assessment analysis to understand the entire transformation process.
• contributes to the direct involvement of stakeholders on planning and coordinating future actions in terms of R&D programmes, competitive calls and funded projects.
• responds to the need of “Sound Intelligence support” already envisaged by CREST Multilevel Policies Report, 2007.
Futuring the changing world for Industrial Technologies
Conclusions: a new futuring context
• to build an open environment networking industrial research and innovation communities;
• to develop new foresight method - from a linear to a complex approach - to respond to the increasingly complex, interdependent and uncertain realms of today’s business and policy strategy in the Knowledge economy;
• to create a value upstream through availability of existing competences and of sound directions;
• to support FTA for Industrial Research with the rolling programme.
A new futuring context for research and innovation requires:
This is the new futuring context of research and industry stakeholders to operate more effectively and to proceed faster toward the common goal.
Futuring the changing world for Industrial Technologies
Acknowledgments
The authors are pleased to acknowledge Mr. Andrea Gentili, Coordinator for the European Commission of the ManuFuture Platform, and Mr. Jyrki Suominen, Scientific Officer of European Commission and Project Officer of Leadership project, for their precious collaboration and suggestions.
Acknowledgements are also due to ManuFuture European Technology Platform, to ManuFuture National Technological Platforms and to the Leadership Consortium.
A particular appreciation is to industrial key opinion leaders of about 120 companies and to roadmappers of research organizations involved in the roadmapping activity of the Leadership project.
Futuring the changing world for Industrial Technologies
Augusta Maria Paci
EPPLab Responsible
Maria Stella Chiacchio
doctoral student in Economic and Management Engineering
at “Tor Vergata” University in Rome
EPPLab of ITIA-CNR (Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche)
Via dei Taurini, 19
00185 Rome, Italy
+39 06 4993 7870
maria.chiacchio@itia.cnr.it