Future Submarine Through-life Support Cost Modelling in the Concept Phase

Nira Chamberlain CMath FIMA CSciModelling and Simulation Capability Lead.

LSC is a Consultancy and Systems Integration services

company

LSC is a Consultancy and Systems Integration services

company

LSC Group

We work closely with clients to enhance their decision-

making capabilities

We work closely with clients to enhance their decision-

making capabilities

200 people across 4 key locations and numerous

customer sites

200 people across 4 key locations and numerous

customer sites

Defence market focus across Maritime, Air, Land & MoD

centre

Defence market focus across Maritime, Air, Land & MoD

centre

Our mission is to make complex decision-making

informed, precise and collaborative …..

Our mission is to make complex decision-making

informed, precise and collaborative …..

…enabling better decisions throughout the asset life

cycle

…enabling better decisions throughout the asset life

cycle

Modelling and Simulation roles

• LSC Groups Modelling and Simulation Lead

• Future Submarine Design for Minimum Cost Manager

• Concept phase investment appraisal through life cost studies for systems selection.

The Problem

• Most of the problems within the concept phase of a project are messy and complex, often entailing considerable uncertainty

The Challenge

• Because of the nature of the project the cost team were being asked Demonstration Phase style questions within the concept phase.

• It was widely believed that there is a relatively small window in which significant whole life cost savings can be engineered into the boat.

Window of Opportunity

• This is due to the well known fact that 75-80% of the cost of a product is determined during the design phase.

Concept Assessment Demonstration Manufacture In Service

Cumulative Life Cycle Cost

Committed CostsIncurred Costs

Traditional Approach

• “Wet finger in the air”

• Cost estimates based on physical characteristics.

Issues with traditional approach

• In terms of “Wet finger in the air”

• The assumptions become the solution.

• A guess will always be replaced with a guess.

Issues with traditional approach

• In terms of cost estimating based on physical characteristics; finding significant cost deltas between the options proved to be problematic.

The Approach

• Recognise that we are being asked different questions

• Instead of bending the client to fit the model, we have to develop the model(s) to fit the client.

Modelling Philosophy

• A “guess will always be replaced by a guess but a logical argument evolves”

Guess Guess Guess Guess

Concept DesignConcept Concept Design

Logical Argument

Logical Argument

Logical Argument

Logical Argument

Addressing the Challenge:

Addressing the Challenge:

What are the cost consequences of the design characteristics?

Logical Argument Based Model

• LABM uses advanced quantitative methods, modelling, problem structuring, analytical techniques to examine assumptions, facilitate an in -depth understanding and from this develop a practical solution which is transparent and challengeable.

Addressing the Challenge:

Another challenge

• What happens when the client ask about maintenance cost of a system that never existed on the previous platform?

Modelling Philosophy

• A “guess will always be replaced by a guess but a logical argument evolves”

Addressing the Challenge:

Addressing the Challenge:

Addressing the Challenge:

The challenge

• How can we relate cost to performance and requirement?

Case Study Demonstration:

Other Bespoken Cost Models

1. The Dynamical Probability Analysis Tool.

– Rapid fire but robust Monte-Carlo Simulation Tool.

2. The Spend to Save Model– Measure the effectiveness of cost reduction

strategies.

3. Heuristic Engineering Analysis Tool– Captures the Engineering Impact of costed

solutions.

Integrating models into a suite of tools

LABM

DPAT

CPTO

MM

Simulation

HEAT

Conclusion

• In the concept phase if the client ask you Through Life demonstration phase style of questions; it is better to adapt your model(s) to the client than trying to adapt the client to the models.

• A guess will always be replaced by a guess but a logical argument will always evolve.

References

Planning

Implementation

Management

Requirements

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