Post on 22-Dec-2015
FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004
La modélisation de la La modélisation de la demande de transport:demande de transport:
méthodes avancées appliquées méthodes avancées appliquées aux chaînes d’activités.aux chaînes d’activités.
Cinzia CirilloCinzia CirilloFacultes Universitaires Notre Dame de la Paix – FUNDPFacultes Universitaires Notre Dame de la Paix – FUNDP
Transportation Research Group – GRTTransportation Research Group – GRT
Namur BELGIUMNamur BELGIUM
ccir@math.fundp.ac.beccir@math.fundp.ac.be
FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004
The activity based approachThe activity based approach
The analysis of transport demand in Belgium The analysis of transport demand in Belgium (MOBEL)(MOBEL)
FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004
Modeling frameworkModeling framework
The scheduling model system for workersThe scheduling model system for workers Pattern, tour and stop models.Pattern, tour and stop models. The Mode choice modelThe Mode choice model Value of Time (VOT) study.Value of Time (VOT) study. The destination choice modelThe destination choice model Combining temporal and spatial aspects in the Combining temporal and spatial aspects in the
mobility analysis.mobility analysis. Advanced models to measure travel behaviorAdvanced models to measure travel behavior
Mixed Logit & AMLET.Mixed Logit & AMLET.
FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004
An econometric simulator An econometric simulator for daily activity travel patternsfor daily activity travel patterns
Individual &Household
Demographics(forecast year)
SyntheticPopulationGenerator
AggregateDemographics(forecast year)
Transportationsystem
Characteristics(forecast year)
Activity-Environment
Characteristics(forecast year)
Activity-travelsimulator
Modelparameters
Modelparameters
Medium-termChoice
Simulator
IndividualMedium-term
Decision(forecast year)
IndividualActivity-travel
Patterns(forecast year)
FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004
Daily pattern simulation for Daily pattern simulation for each individual of the householdeach individual of the household
fo r each in d ivid u a l in th e H H
S top -leve lm od e l sys tem
w orkers
Tou r-leve lm od e l sys tem
w orkers
P a tte rn -leve lm od e l sys tem
w orkers
S top -leve lm od e l sys temn on -w orkers
Tou r-leve lm od e l sys temn on -w orkers
P a tte rn -leve lm od e l sys temn on -w orkers
G en era tion -a lloca tionm od e l sys tem in th e H H
A c tivit ies an d ca rs
FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004
The scheduling model system The scheduling model system
Tou r-leve l su b -sys tem
H om e-S tay D u ra tionb e fo re tou r
Tou r D u ra tion
L ocationD es tin a tion ch o ice
M od e
A c tivity typ e
S top -leve l su b -sys tem
A c tivity s top d u ra tionan d trave l t im e
N u m b er an d typ eS econ d ary ac tivity
P atte rn -leve l su b -sys tem
D ep artu re T im e
N u m b er an d sch ed u lin gP rin c ip a l d a ily ac tivity
FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004
Scheduling model system for workersScheduling model system for workersPattern model system alternativesPattern model system alternatives
11
22
33
44
55
66
77
88
99
WW
BWBW
WMWM
WPWP
BWMBWM
WMPWMP
BWPBWP
BWMPBWMP
> 4> 4
only work tour only work tour
before work pattern and work tours before work pattern and work tours
work pattern and midday tours work pattern and midday tours
work pattern and post-work tours work pattern and post-work tours
before, work and midday tours before, work and midday tours
work, midday and post-work tours work, midday and post-work tours
before, work and post-work tours before, work and post-work tours
before, work midday and post-work tours before, work midday and post-work tours
more than 4 toursmore than 4 tours
FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004
AASCSC
11
22
33
44
55
Work scheduling varsWork scheduling vars
66
77
88
99
1010
HHLD variablesHHLD variables
1111
1212
IND variablesIND variables
1313
1414
1515
1616
1717
1818
Inertia variablesInertia variables
1919
2020
2121
W (as base)W (as base)
BWBW
WMWM
WPWP
BWPBWP
MWPMWP
WPWP
BWBW
BWP-MWPBWP-MWP
WP-BWP-MWPWP-BWP-MWP
Only WOnly W
WP-BWP-MWPWP-BWP-MWP
BW-WPBW-WP
only Wonly W
WP-BWP-MWPWP-BWP-MWP
MWMW
BWBW
BWBW
only Wonly W
oonly Wnly W
BW-MW-WPBW-MW-WP
BWP-MWPBWP-MWP
Parameters Parameters
Work tourWork tour
Before and Work toursBefore and Work tours
Work and Midday toursWork and Midday tours
Work and Post toursWork and Post tours
Before, Work and Post toursBefore, Work and Post tours
Midday, Work and Post toursMidday, Work and Post tours
Arrival at work before 9:00 a.m.Arrival at work before 9:00 a.m.
Arrival at work betArrival at work betww 9/10:00 a.m. 9/10:00 a.m.
Dep from work betw 4/6:00 p.m.Dep from work betw 4/6:00 p.m.
Dep from work after 6:00 p.m.Dep from work after 6:00 p.m.
Arrival at work betArrival at work betww 9/10:00 a.m. 9/10:00 a.m.
Household incomeHousehold income
NN.. of children between 12 and 18 of children between 12 and 18
Age 26-35Age 26-35
Age over 60Age over 60
Not marriedNot married
Married with child/renMarried with child/ren
Female and part TimeFemale and part Time
NN.. of working hours per week of working hours per week
act ch =act ch = pre choice = work onlypre choice = work only
acactt ch = ch = pre choice = 1 extra actpre choice = 1 extra act
act ch =act ch = previous choice = previous choice =
2 extra activiti2 extra activititiesties
EstimEstim..
-3.769-3.769
-3.333-3.333
-0.932-0.932
-4.291-4.291
-2.863-2.863
1.3441.344
0.8970.897
0.9700.970
-1.889-1.889
-1.438-1.438
0.0730.073
0.2190.219
0.4220.422
-2.165-2.165
1.3491.349
1.3431.343
0.5880.588
0.0160.016
0.8680.868
-0.168-0.168
0.7060.706
s.e.s.e.
0.2950.295
0.2610.261
0.2070.207
0.3150.315
0.2080.208
0.1170.117
0.3050.305
0.2630.263
0.2080.208
0.1780.178
0.0200.020
0.0820.082
0.2080.208
0.5280.528
0.2410.241
0.2830.283
0.2920.292
0.0030.003
0.1530.153
0.0800.080
0.1210.121
t-statst-stats
-12.8-12.8
-12.8-12.8
-4.5-4.5
-13.6-13.6
-13.7-13.7
11.411.4
2.92.9
3.73.7
-9.1-9.1
-8.1-8.1
3.63.6
2.72.7
2.02.0
-4.1-4.1
5.65.6
4.84.8
2.02.0
6.06.0
5.75.7
-2.1-2.1
5.85.8
FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004
Scheduling model system for workersScheduling model system for workersTour model system alternativesTour model system alternatives
11
22
33
44
55
66
MM
LL
OO
MLML
MOMO
LOLO
Maintenance Maintenance
LeisureLeisure
OtherOther
Maintenance and leisureMaintenance and leisure
Maintenance and othersMaintenance and others
Leisure and othersLeisure and others
FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004
AASCSC
11
22
33
44
55
66
Work actWork activity varsivity vars
77
88
99
1010
1111
1212
HHHLD HLD varsvars
1313
1414
1515
1616
IINDND vars vars
1177
1188
1919
2200
2211
Inertia variablesInertia variables
2222
2233
2244
AltAltss
WorkWork
MM
LL
OO
MLML
MOMO
LOLO
1 act.1 act.
2 act.2 act.
LL
MM
OO
LOLO
11 act. act.
2 act.2 act.
1 act.1 act.
2 act.2 act.
1act. & 2act.1act. & 2act.
1act. & 2act.1act. & 2act.
1act. & 2act.1act. & 2act.
1act. & 2act.1act. & 2act.
1act. & 2act.1act. & 2act.
0 act.0 act.
1act.1act.
2act.2act.
Parameters Parameters
(as base)(as base)
MaintenanceMaintenance
LeisureLeisure
OtherOther
MaintMaint.. and Leisure and Leisure
Maint and OtherMaint and Other
Leisure and OtherLeisure and Other
NN of stop of stop inin the commute pattern the commute pattern
NN of stop in the commute pattern of stop in the commute pattern
Distance to work locationDistance to work location
DurDur. . of work activity (min/100)of work activity (min/100)
DurDur.. of work activity (min/100) of work activity (min/100)
DurDur.. of work activity (min/100) of work activity (min/100)
Number of children under 12Number of children under 12
Number of children under 12Number of children under 12
NN.. of children between 12 and 18 of children between 12 and 18
N.N. of children between 12 and 18 of children between 12 and 18
Female and part-time jobFemale and part-time job
Age between 25-50Age between 25-50
Age over 50Age over 50
Married with childrenMarried with children
Not marriedNot married
Inertia no extra actInertia no extra act
Inertia 1 activityInertia 1 activity
Inertia 2 activitiesInertia 2 activities
EstimEstim
-1.459-1.459
-0.260-0.260
-0.464-0.464
-3.606-3.606
-3.887-3.887
-1.704-1.704
0.0630.063
0.0160.016
-0.110-0.110
-0.149-0.149
-0.092-0.092
-0.221-0.221
0.2510.251
0.3090.309
0.5680.568
0.9790.979
0.6570.657
-0.459-0.459
-0.885-0.885
-0.525-0.525
-0.475-0.475
0.4610.461
0.6250.625
0.2060.206
s.e.s.e.
0.2910.291
0.2040.204
0.2270.227
0.2770.277
0.2960.296
0.3360.336
0.0530.053
0.0900.090
0.0170.017
0.0640.064
0.0390.039
0.0760.076
0.0880.088
0.1550.155
0.0950.095
0.1410.141
0.1300.130
0.1500.150
0.1770.177
0.1650.165
0.1510.151
0.0990.099
0.2330.233
0.1220.122
t-stat-statt
-5.0-5.0
-1.3-1.3
-2.0-2.0
-13.0-13.0
-13.1-13.1
-5.1-5.1
1.21.2
0.20.2
-6.3-6.3
-2.3-2.3
-2.3-2.3
-2.9-2.9
2.82.8
2.02.0
6.06.0
6.96.9
5.05.0
-3.1-3.1
-5.0-5.0
-3.2-3.2
-3.1-3.1
4.74.7
2.72.7
1.71.7
FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004
Scheduling model system for workersScheduling model system for workersStop model system alternativesStop model system alternatives
11
22
33
44
55
66
nonenone
1 stop TW1 stop TW
2 stop TW2 stop TW
1 stop FW1 stop FW
2 stop FW2 stop FW
TWFWTWFW
no stopno stop
1 stop on the way to work1 stop on the way to work
2 stops on the way to work2 stops on the way to work
1 stop on the way back home from work1 stop on the way back home from work
2 stops on the way back home from work2 stops on the way back home from work
one or more stop(s) on the way to work andone or more stop(s) on the way to work and
one or more stop(s)on the way back home one or more stop(s)on the way back home from workfrom work
FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004
AASCSC
11
22
33
44
55
LOS variablesLOS variables
66
77
Household variablesHousehold variables
88
99
1010
1111
1212
Individual variablesIndividual variables
1313
1414
1515
1616
1717
1818
1919
2020
Inertia variablesInertia variables
2121
2222
2233
2424
AAlternativeslternatives
1 stop TW1 stop TW
2 stop TW2 stop TW
1 stop FW1 stop FW
2 stop FW2 stop FW
TWFWTWFW
NoneNone
NoneNone
2 stop TW2 stop TW--2 stop FW2 stop FW NoneNone
NoneNone
stop TWFWstop TWFW
1 stop FW1 stop FW
1 stop FW1 stop FW
2 stop FW2 stop FW
1 stop TW1 stop TW
2 stop TW2 stop TW
NoneNone
2 stop TW2 stop TW-2-2 stop FW stop FW
stop TWFWstop TWFW
stop TWFWstop TWFW
nonenone
1 stop TW1 stop TW-2-2 stop TW stop TW
1 stop FW1 stop FW--2 stop FW2 stop FW
stop TWFWstop TWFW
none (as base)none (as base)
1 stop to work1 stop to work
2 stop to work2 stop to work
1 stop from work1 stop from work
2 stop from work2 stop from work
1 stop to work1 stop to work 1 stop from work1 stop from work
To work in vehicle timeTo work in vehicle time
To work out of vehicle timeTo work out of vehicle time
Number of vehiclesNumber of vehicles
Number of adultsNumber of adults
Urban Household locationUrban Household location
Suburban Household locationSuburban Household location
Suburban Household locationSuburban Household location
MaleMale
MaleMale
Female and part-timeFemale and part-time
Female and part-timeFemale and part-time
Not MarriedNot Married
Age25-35Age25-35
Age35-50Age35-50
Age over 65Age over 65
Inertia no stopInertia no stop
Iner to stop on the way to workIner to stop on the way to work
Iner to stop on theIner to stop on the way from workway from work
Inertia to stop bothInertia to stop both ways ways
EEstimstim..
-2.657-2.657
-5.149-5.149
-1.811-1.811
-3.571-3.571
-6.350-6.350
-0.019-0.019
-0.028-0.028
0.6070.607
0.1810.181
-0.831-0.831
1.9631.963
0.7690.769
-0.724-0.724
-0.346-0.346
1.0161.016
1.0431.043
0.7620.762
0.6620.662
1.9611.961
1.2281.228
0.4960.496
0.4940.494
0.2060.206
2.1152.115
s.e.s.e.
0.2780.278
0.4110.411
0.3390.339
0.4020.402
0.8140.814
0.0060.006
0.0070.007
0.1200.120
0.0710.071
0.2110.211
0.6390.639
0.2320.232
0.1370.137
0.1820.182
0.2190.219
0.4300.430
0.1130.113
0.2810.281
0.5450.545
0.5910.591
0.1480.148
0.1210.121
0.0560.056
0.3790.379
t-t-ststatat
-9.6-9.6
-12.5-12.5
-5.3-5.3
-8.9-8.9
-7.8-7.8
-3.1-3.1
-3.9-3.9
5.15.1
2.52.5
-3.9-3.9
3.13.1
3.33.3
-5.3-5.3
-1.9-1.9
4.64.6
2.42.4
6.76.7
2.42.4
3.63.6
2.12.1
3.33.3
4.14.1
3.73.7
5.65.6
FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004
Mode choice model: Mode choice model: MobidriveMobidrive data data
Type of tourType of tour
Main Main modemode
Walking Walking CyclingCycling
VehicleVehicle
driverdriver
VehicleVehicle
PassengerPassenger
Public Public
transporttransport
TotalTotal
AllAll
modesmodes
% shares% shares
Non-workersNon-workers
Morning tourMorning tour
Principal tourPrincipal tour
Evening tourEvening tour
WorkerWorker
Morning tourMorning tour
Midday tourMidday tour
Work tourWork tour
Evening tourEvening tour
All tour typesAll tour types
(Share in %)(Share in %)
286286
250250
5151
99
2020
213213
112112
941 941
16.3%16.3%
328328
203203
3131
1010
5353
474474
144144
12431243
21.4%21.4%
638638
541541
8989
3131
3333
561561
181181
20742074
35.8%35.8%
182182
264264
2525
11
33
7676
170170
721721
12.4%12.4%
138138
207207
2525
44
2424
379379
3939
816816
14.1%14.1%
1572 1572
14651465
221 221
55 55
133 133
1703 1703
646 646
5795 5795
27.1%27.1%
25.3%25.3%
3.8%3.8%
0.9%0.9%
2.3%2.3%
29.4%29.4%
11.2%11.2%
100.0%100.0%
FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004
Mode choice model: Mode choice model: variablesvariablesLevelLevel
HouseholdHousehold
IndividualIndividual
PatternPattern
LOSLOS
VariablesVariables
House hold locationHouse hold location
Age Age
Marital statusMarital status
Professional StatusProfessional Status
Use of carUse of car
Use of Public TransportUse of Public Transport
Time budget [min/100]Time budget [min/100]
Sum of travel time [min]Sum of travel time [min]
Tour Duration [min Tour Duration [min
Number of stops Number of stops
Time [min]Time [min]
Cost [DM]Cost [DM]
CategoriesCategories
UrbanUrban
SuburbanSuburban
Age 18-25Age 18-25
Age 26-35Age 26-35
Age 51-65Age 51-65
Married with childrenMarried with children
Full Time workerFull Time worker
Female and employed part-time Female and employed part-time
Main car userMain car user
Total annual mileage by carTotal annual mileage by car
Number of season ticketsNumber of season tickets
24 hours – time spent on previous activities 24 hours – time spent on previous activities (home stay included) and previous travel(home stay included) and previous travel
Sum of time spent travelingSum of time spent traveling
Sum of tour travel time and activity duration. Sum of tour travel time and activity duration.
Number of secondary activities observed within Number of secondary activities observed within each toureach tour
Including any parking feesIncluding any parking fees
FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004
Goodness of fitGoodness of fit
n. of obs.n. of obs.
LL (0) (0)
LL (C) (C)
LL ( (ββ))
KK
ρρ22 adjusted adjusted
MultinomialMultinomial
Logit (MNL)Logit (MNL)
57955795
- 8179.88- 8179.88
- 7503.82- 7503.82
- 6465.11- 6465.11
2121
0.20700.2070
MNL with interactions MNL with interactions with socio-economic with socio-economic parametersparameters
57955795
- 8179.88- 8179.88
- 7503.82- 7503.82
- 6559.23- 6559.23
2121
0.19550.1955
Mixed LogitMixed Logit
57955795
- 8179.88- 8179.88
- 7503.82- 7503.82
- 6446.88- 6446.88
2626
0.20860.2086
Mixed logit Mixed logit on panel on panel data (day)data (day)
57955795
- 8179.88- 8179.88
- 7503.82- 7503.82
- 6039.21- 6039.21
2626
0.25850.2585
FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004
VOT: Value Of Time studyVOT: Value Of Time study
Confidence interval Confidence interval (Armstrong et al., 2001)(Armstrong et al., 2001)
22
c
22c
22t
2ct
2
t
c
c
t22
c
2ct
t
c
c
tI,S
tt
ttttttt
t
t
tt
ttt
t
tV
VariableVariable
Upper limitUpper limit
Lower limitLower limit
VTTS point VTTS point estimateestimate
rhorho
tt
Number of Number of observationsobservations
All All purposespurposes
14.4714.47
8.608.60
11.0611.06
0.0930.093
- 4.76- 4.76
57955795
Work or Work or educationeducation
13.5713.57
4.504.50
8.238.23
0.0610.061
- 4.65- 4.65
18661866
ShoppingShopping
757.09757.09
13.0213.02
26.9926.99
0.0770.077
- 6.03- 6.03
12521252
LeisureLeisure
80.6180.61
7.077.07
15.3015.30
0.090.09
- 3.24- 3.24
13841384
OtherOther
50.7450.74
9.099.09
17.9417.94
0.0570.057
- 6.78- 6.78
12931293
FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004
VOT by socio-economic characteristicsVOT by socio-economic characteristicsParameterParameter
ASC Car passengerASC Car passenger
ASC Public TransportASC Public Transport
ASC WalkASC Walk
ASC BikeASC Bike
Annual mileage by carAnnual mileage by car
Time BudgetTime Budget
Tour DurationTour Duration
Sum of Travel TimeSum of Travel Time
TimeTime
CostCost
Interaction variablesInteraction variables
Time * urban household locationTime * urban household location
Time * Age18-25Time * Age18-25
Time * Age26-50Time * Age26-50
Time * Age51-65Time * Age51-65
Time * Full-time workerTime * Full-time worker
Time * Female part-timeTime * Female part-time
Time * Married with childrenTime * Married with children
Time * Number of stopsTime * Number of stops
Time * Season TicketTime * Season Ticket
Time * Main Car userTime * Main Car user
AlternativeAlternative
CPCP
PTPT
WW
BB
CDCD
CD, CPCD, CP
PTPT
BB
AllAll
AllAll
AllAll
AllAll
AllAll
AllAll
AllAll
AllAll
AllAll
AllAll
AllAll
AllAll
ββ
-1.379-1.379
-1.495-1.495
0.2390.239
-0.491-0.491
0.0460.046
-0.043-0.043
0.0030.003
-0.005-0.005
-0.023-0.023
-0.113-0.113
0.0180.018
0.0210.021
-0.001-0.001
0.0030.003
-0.001-0.001
-0.032-0.032
-0.027-0.027
0.0150.015
0.0020.002
-0.006-0.006
t-stat.t-stat.
-22.6-22.6
-11.6-11.6
1.71.7
-3.8-3.8
12.512.5
-2.9-2.9
17.217.2
-2.8-2.8
-9.4-9.4
-10.5-10.5
8.08.0
5.75.7
-0.1-0.1
1.31.3
-0.2-0.2
-8.4-8.4
-9.2-9.2
6.36.3
0.90.9
-2.5-2.5
VOTVOT
12.0412.04
2.352.35
0.820.82
12.4812.48
10.3510.35
12.3112.31
29.1929.19
26.5226.52
4.194.19
10.7910.79
14.9814.98
FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004
VOT per tour tipeVOT per tour tipe
VOT distribution for non-workers per tour typeVOT distribution for non-workers per tour type
VOT distribution for workers per tour typeVOT distribution for workers per tour type
9595thth percentile VTTS [DM] percentile VTTS [DM]
7575thth percentile VTTS [DM] percentile VTTS [DM]
Average VTTS [DM] Average VTTS [DM]
Share of % negative Share of % negative VTTS VTTS
Morning Morning patternpattern
32.232.2
18.818.8
13.513.5
6%6%
Principal Principal patternpattern
55.2555.25
28.428.4
15.415.4
25%25%
Evening Evening patternpattern
14.614.6
8.28.2
5.45.4
14%14%
9595thth percentile VTTS [DM] percentile VTTS [DM]
7575thth percentile VTTS [DM] percentile VTTS [DM]
Average VTTS [DM] Average VTTS [DM]
Share of % negative Share of % negative VTTS VTTS
Morning Morning patternpattern
n.a.n.a.
n.a.n.a.
n.a.n.a.
n.a.n.a.
Commute Commute patternpattern
15.315.3
9.39.3
7.67.6
0%0%
Evening Evening patternpattern
64.764.7
35.035.0
21.421.4
19%19%
FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004
Travel timeTravel time
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
-0.060 -0.050 -0.040 -0.030 -0.020 -0.010 0.000 0.010 0.020 0.030
Parameter value: travel time
Cu
mu
lati
ve p
rob
abil
ity
FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004
Travel costTravel cost
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
-0.200 -0.180 -0.160 -0.140 -0.120 -0.100 -0.080 -0.060 -0.040 -0.020 0.000
Parameter value: travel cost
Cu
mu
lati
ve p
rob
abil
ity
FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004
VOTVOT
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Value of time (GM)
Cu
mu
lati
ve
pro
ba
bili
ty
FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004
TT: BPATT: BPA
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
-0.070 -0.060 -0.050 -0.040 -0.030 -0.020 -0.010 0.000 0.010 0.020 0.030
Parameter value: travel time Before Principal Activity - non-workers
Cu
mu
lati
ve p
rob
abil
ity
FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004
TT: Principal pattern NWTT: Principal pattern NW
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
-0.150 -0.100 -0.050 0.000 0.050 0.100 0.150
Parameter value: travel time Principal pattern - non-workers
Cu
mu
lati
ve p
rob
abil
ity
FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004
TT: Evening pattern NWTT: Evening pattern NW
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
-0.035 -0.030 -0.025 -0.020 -0.015 -0.010 -0.005 0.000 0.005 0.010 0.015 0.020
Parameter value: travel time Evening pattern - non-workers
Cu
mu
lati
ve p
rob
abil
ity
FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004
TT: commute pattern WTT: commute pattern W
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
-0.030 -0.025 -0.020 -0.015 -0.010 -0.005 0.000
Parameter value: travel time Commute pattern - workers
Cu
mu
lati
ve p
rob
abil
ity
FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004
TT: Evening pattern WTT: Evening pattern W
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
-0.150 -0.100 -0.050 0.000 0.050 0.100
Parameter value: travel time Evening pattern - workers
Cu
mu
lati
ve p
rob
abil
ity
FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004
Destination choice model.Destination choice model.
Discrete choice methods to model out-of-Discrete choice methods to model out-of-home and out-of-work activity location home and out-of-work activity location choicechoice
Alternative sizeAlternative size :: Statistical Sector Statistical Sector
Sampling of alternatives : Sampling of alternatives : Action Space Action Space **
(*) Dijst and Vidakovic (1997)(*) Dijst and Vidakovic (1997)
FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004
DataData
Data sources:Data sources:
MOBELMOBEL, the Belgian National Mobility , the Belgian National Mobility Survey (1999)Survey (1999)
1484 geocoded daily activity chains 1484 geocoded daily activity chains achieved in the Flemish Region achieved in the Flemish Region
1950 out-of-home and out-of-work 1950 out-of-home and out-of-work activitiesactivities
FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004
Alternatives generation Alternatives generation processprocess
Action space theoryAction space theory
FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004
Action Space EquationAction Space Equation
(*)(*)
where, where, T : time-budget;T : time-budget; V : travel speed;V : travel speed; L : distance between bases (home-work);L : distance between bases (home-work);
ττ : travel time ratio ;: travel time ratio ;
x, y : coordinates of points belonging to the action-space.x, y : coordinates of points belonging to the action-space.
(*) Dijst and Vidakovic (1997)(*) Dijst and Vidakovic (1997)
staytravel
travel
TT
T
FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004
Worker’s daily activity chainWorker’s daily activity chain Morning commuteMorning commute Midday tourMidday tour Evening commuteEvening commute After tourAfter tour
Non worker’s daily activity chainNon worker’s daily activity chain Before tourBefore tour Main tour (main activity)Main tour (main activity) After tourAfter tour
FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004
Worker’s action spacesWorker’s action spaces
Non worker’s action spacesNon worker’s action spaces
S
H W
S
W H
S S
W
SS
H
1 stop 2 stops 1 stop 2 stops
s sH H
ss
2 stops main activity (ma) + 2 stops 2 stops
ma s
H s
FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004
For each tour and commute, building an action For each tour and commute, building an action spacespace
For each observed stop, creating a set of max For each observed stop, creating a set of max 19 alternatives:19 alternatives:
nine randomly selected destinationsnine randomly selected destinations++
actual destination chosen by the individualactual destination chosen by the individual++
the other destination chosen in the activity chainthe other destination chosen in the activity chain
all in action spaceall in action space
FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004
Group I: Group I: HomeHome Work (workers)Work (workers) Principal activity stop (non-workers) Principal activity stop (non-workers) Group IIGroup IIMain stop in the morning tourMain stop in the morning tourMain stop in the evening tourMain stop in the evening tour Group IIIGroup III 1 Secondary stop in the morning tour1 Secondary stop in the morning tour 1 Secondary stop in the evening tour2 Secondary stops 1 Secondary stop in the evening tour2 Secondary stops
in principal tourin principal tour
FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004
Before main tour action spaceBefore main tour action space
FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004
Morning commute action spaceMorning commute action space
FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004
Variables descriptionVariables description
FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004
LOS variablesLOS variables
Impedance variables:Impedance variables: in-vehicle travel time;in-vehicle travel time; costcost; ;
Impedance Impedance = IVTT += IVTT + COSTCOST
(VOT = value of time = 7 Euro/hour)*(VOT = value of time = 7 Euro/hour)** Recent model developped for the Walloon Region* Recent model developped for the Walloon Region
VOT
1
FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004
Land use variablesLand use variables Statistical sector area (total geographical area of the sector [m²]) ;Statistical sector area (total geographical area of the sector [m²]) ;
densely-built housing ;densely-built housing ; built-up housing ;built-up housing ; housing and other developments ;housing and other developments ;
industrial / commercial / port area ;industrial / commercial / port area ;
agriculture and meadowland (agriculture and open space, meadowland and agriculture and meadowland (agriculture and open space, meadowland and orchards). orchards).
green / nature area (broad-leaved, coniferous and/or mixed forests, green / nature area (broad-leaved, coniferous and/or mixed forests, municipal parks, heath land and moors, dunes and beaches, water);municipal parks, heath land and moors, dunes and beaches, water);
infrastructure (highways, district roads, airport and/or railway infrastructure infrastructure (highways, district roads, airport and/or railway infrastructure and so on);and so on);
FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004
Activity variablesActivity variables
shopping variable;shopping variable; financial variable (banks);financial variable (banks); hotel / restaurant / café;hotel / restaurant / café; cinemas;cinemas; sport activities;sport activities; cultural, recreational and leisure activities cultural, recreational and leisure activities
(museum, library, school of music, zoo, nature (museum, library, school of music, zoo, nature reserve, theatres, casino and so on);reserve, theatres, casino and so on);
car retail;car retail; personal service (beauty center and so on).personal service (beauty center and so on).
FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004
Random utilityRandom utility Utility functionUtility function
yyz z : land use zone-specific variables,: land use zone-specific variables, λλ :: coefficients fixed across all zones; coefficients fixed across all zones;
: size measure of alternative : size measure of alternative z, z,
MMzkzk : : kkth size variable for zone th size variable for zone zz, , ββkk : corresponding coefficient, : corresponding coefficient, μμ : positive scale parameter;: positive scale parameter;
xxizjizj : exogenous accessibility variables for individual : exogenous accessibility variables for individual ii in zone in zone z ,z , γγ : vector of random parameters;: vector of random parameters; εεiziz : error terms: error terms independently and identically Gumbel distributed.independently and identically Gumbel distributed.
zk
s
kz MeM k
1
izizzzT
iz xMyU lnln
FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004
Model resultsModel results
FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004
VariableVariable Multinomial Multinomial logitlogit
EstimateEstimate T-statT-stat
Mixed logitMixed logit
EstimateEstimate T-statT-stat
LOS VariableLOS Variable
Impedance (Mean)Impedance (Mean)
Impedance (s.d.)Impedance (s.d.)
ImpedanceImpedance
Socio-demografic interaction Socio-demografic interaction with impedancewith impedance
FemaleFemale
Number of HHLD actives = 1 Number of HHLD actives = 1
Number of HHLD actives = 2Number of HHLD actives = 2
Age 18-25Age 18-25
Age 25-55Age 25-55
Age > 55Age > 55
Number of cars 0-1Number of cars 0-1
Number of cars =2Number of cars =2
-0.0307-0.0307
0.00820.0082
-0.0172-0.0172
-0.0182-0.0182
-0.0199-0.0199
-0.0182-0.0182
-0.0103-0.0103
0.01520.0152
0.02510.0251
-3.1-3.1
2.62.6
-3.4-3.4
-3.5-3.5
-3.0-3.0
-2.2-2.2
-2.1-2.1
2.12.1
2.72.7
-0.1157-0.1157
-0.0671-0.0671
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
-5.4-5.4
-4.8-4.8
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
Land use variablesLand use variables
Ln (population)Ln (population)
Ln (agricultural area) Ln (agricultural area)
Ln (infrastructure)Ln (infrastructure)
Ln (housing)Ln (housing)
Ln (built area)Ln (built area)
Ln (densely built area)Ln (densely built area)
Ln (surface) Ln (surface)
-0.4951-0.4951
-0.2817-0.2817
0.06450.0645
0.11170.1117
0.06910.0691
0.14920.1492
0.68840.6884
-9.7-9.7
-8.3-8.3
2.12.1
2.82.8
3.53.5
3.83.8
14.814.8
-0.3567-0.3567
-0.3933-0.3933
-0.0514-0.0514
0.16690.1669
0.11640.1164
0.20030.2003
1.07401.0740
-5.9-5.9
-6.8-6.8
1.01.0
2.42.4
3.53.5
2.82.8
12.412.4
FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004
Size variablesSize variables
Industry/Shopping areaIndustry/Shopping area
RecreationRecreation
SpectaclesSpectacles
RestaurantsRestaurants
ShoppingShopping
SportsSports
11
7.0777.077
5.2055.205
4.4934.493
4.5194.519
--
--
9.79.7
5.65.6
5.25.2
9.09.0
--
11
4.0354.035
--
1.7531.753
1.9121.912
2.8512.851
--
5.35.3
--
2.22.2
5.85.8
2.92.9
Error componentsError components
Evening Main + Stop EveningEvening Main + Stop Evening
Morning Prin. + Stop1 Prin.Morning Prin. + Stop1 Prin.
Evening Main + Stop1 Prin. Evening Main + Stop1 Prin.
+ Stop2 Prin.+ Stop2 Prin.
--
--
--
--
--
--
-0.4072-0.4072
0.25590.2559
0.40160.4016
-3.4-3.4
3.63.6
3.93.9
Number of observationsNumber of observations
Log-likelihood at zeroLog-likelihood at zero
Log-likelihood at convergenceLog-likelihood at convergence
Degrees of FreedomDegrees of Freedom
Adjusted ρAdjusted ρ
15821582
-3424.85-3424.85
-2961.68-2961.68
2121
0.1290.129
15821582
-3424.85-3424.85
-2676.33-2676.33
1616
0.2140.214
FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004
Estimation of mixed logitEstimation of mixed logit
Probability choiceProbability choice
where,where,
: normally distributed random vector;: normally distributed random vector;
θθ : means and standard deviation of ; : means and standard deviation of ;
LLiziz : logit formula.: logit formula.
dfLdPLLEP izizizPiz ,,,
FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004
Maximizing the log-likelihood functionMaximizing the log-likelihood function
Monte-Carlo SimulationMonte-Carlo Simulation
where where RR is the number of random draws is the number of random draws δδrr, taken , taken from the distribution function of from the distribution function of δδ..
I
1iiizPln
I
1maxLLmax
R
rriz
Riziz
iii L
RSP)(P
1
,1
FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004
Computing Computing θθ as the solution of the as the solution of the simulated log-likelihood problem:simulated log-likelihood problem:
I
1i
Riin
R SPlnI
1maxSLLmax
FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004FUNDP Namur 19 Avril 2004
Software to estimate mixed logitSoftware to estimate mixed logit
Gauss (special routine written by K. Train)Gauss (special routine written by K. Train) Biogeme (M. Bierlaire)Biogeme (M. Bierlaire) Alogit (A. Daly)Alogit (A. Daly) LIMDEP (W. Greene)LIMDEP (W. Greene) AMLET (F. Bastin)AMLET (F. Bastin)