Post on 22-Feb-2016
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From Cold War to Hot War: From Cold War to Hot War: Climate Change and Climate Change and
Conflict in the 21Conflict in the 21stst Century Century
Jim LeeJim LeeAmerican UniversityAmerican University
March 2007March 2007
Climate Change Will do More than Climate Change Will do More than Raise the TemperatureRaise the Temperature
I.I. The Environmental CenturyThe Environmental CenturyA.A. The Linkages between Climate The Linkages between Climate Change and Conflict Change and Conflict B.B. Forecasts of Climate in the Forecasts of Climate in the 21st Century21st CenturyC.C. Trends in ConflictTrends in Conflict
Linkages: The Problem of Climate Linkages: The Problem of Climate Change and ConflictChange and Conflict
Displacement: Large scale migrations Displacement: Large scale migrations Abundance: New resources become Abundance: New resources become
availableavailable Scarcity: Greater Demands and Scarcity: Greater Demands and
Declining YieldsDeclining Yields Sovereignty: New lands and seawaysSovereignty: New lands and seaways
Climate Change in History and Climate Change in History and ConflictConflict
The End of the Ice Age (30-40,000 BC) The End of the Ice Age (30-40,000 BC) Neanderthal Wars and Growing DesertsNeanderthal Wars and Growing Deserts
The Medieval Climate Optimum (500-1000 The Medieval Climate Optimum (500-1000 AD) Recovering from the Dark Ages and AD) Recovering from the Dark Ages and the New Worldthe New World
The Little Ice Age (1300-1850) Retreat and The Little Ice Age (1300-1850) Retreat and Advance, Extreme EventsAdvance, Extreme Events
The Modern Warming (1900-today)The Modern Warming (1900-today)
IPCC ForecastsIPCC Forecasts
The research will rely on forecasts to The research will rely on forecasts to create a climate baseline scenario for the create a climate baseline scenario for the 21st century. The scenario will primarily 21st century. The scenario will primarily use the Intergovernmental Panel on use the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) forecasts.Climate Change (IPCC) forecasts.http://www.ipcc.ch/http://www.ipcc.ch/
Forecasts for Conflict IndicatorsForecasts for Conflict Indicators These forecasts center on two These forecasts center on two
dimensions. First, there is the dimensions. First, there is the geography of the forecast. Second, geography of the forecast. Second, there are the impacts. The impacts there are the impacts. The impacts focus on four types: focus on four types:
(1) precipitation and temperature, (1) precipitation and temperature, (2) arable land, (2) arable land, (3) forests, and (3) forests, and (4) fresh water.(4) fresh water.
Trends in Conflict BehaviorTrends in Conflict Behavior Growth in Destructiveness of Growth in Destructiveness of
WeaponsWeapons More Ability to Use Environment as a More Ability to Use Environment as a
WeaponWeapon Livelihood ConflictsLivelihood Conflicts A Focus on Civilian Casualties and A Focus on Civilian Casualties and
Environment DestructionEnvironment Destruction More Civil than International WarsMore Civil than International Wars
Thinking About Conflict and Thinking About Conflict and EnvironmentEnvironment
II.II. Climate Change and Conflict in Climate Change and Conflict in HistoryHistory
A. The Equatorial Tension BeltA. The Equatorial Tension BeltB. Historical Cases of Climate Change B. Historical Cases of Climate Change
and Conflictand Conflict1.1. Temperature: The Vikings and North Temperature: The Vikings and North
AmericaAmerica2.2. Arable Land: The Shifting Sahel Arable Land: The Shifting Sahel3. Forests: The Cedars of Lebanon3. Forests: The Cedars of Lebanon4.4. Water: Controlling the Nile in Water: Controlling the Nile in
AntiquityAntiquity
The Path is Partially DeterminedThe Path is Partially Determined III.III. Future Climate Changes and Possible Future Climate Changes and Possible
Conflict OutcomesConflict Outcomes A.A. The Polar Tension BeltThe Polar Tension Belt B.B. Future Cases of Climate Change and Future Cases of Climate Change and
ConflictConflict 1.1. Temperature: The Dispute over Canada’s Temperature: The Dispute over Canada’s
Northwest PassageNorthwest Passage 2.2. Arable Land: The Long-Term Drought in Arable Land: The Long-Term Drought in
Southern Africa Southern Africa 3.3. Forests: The Decline in the Northern Forests: The Decline in the Northern
Amazon Amazon 4.4. Water: Critical Shortages in Central AsiaWater: Critical Shortages in Central Asia
Problem and Solution Types Problem and Solution Types A A preventative approachpreventative approach would attempt to would attempt to
curtail the structural roots for the conflict curtail the structural roots for the conflict before they erupt.before they erupt.
A A mitigating approachmitigating approach would attempt to would attempt to contain or reduce violence that has broken contain or reduce violence that has broken out. out.
An An uncoupling approach uncoupling approach would have a would have a greater focus on the trigger for conflict that greater focus on the trigger for conflict that lets loose accumulated stress built on lets loose accumulated stress built on structural forces. structural forces.
The Path ForwardThe Path Forward
IV.IV. These Conflicts are Not InevitableThese Conflicts are Not Inevitable A.A. Temperature: Controlling Temperature: Controlling
Greenhouse GasesGreenhouse Gases B.B. Arable Land: Rethinking Arable Land: Rethinking
AgricultureAgriculture C.C. Forests: National and Global ParksForests: National and Global Parks D.D. Water: Project Desalinization Water: Project Desalinization