FORWARD STUDIES UNITFORWARD STUDIES UNITto the Latviato the Latvian Union of Scientists n Union of Scientists

June 2003

KS Information Seri es I:

Foresight for an Enlarged Europe

Rethinking and Foresighting Knowledge and Society

Presentation by Dr. Arturs Puga,

Head of Un it

apfstudies@netscape.net

The societal value of Foresight The societal value of Foresight is both in is both in the processthe process

and and the productsthe products generated. generated.

Science Governance Society Governance Society Science Society Science Governance

FORWARD STUDIES UNITFORWARD STUDIES UNIT

to the Latviato the Latvian Union of n Union of ScientistsScientists

System in the making:

researchers and practitioners, partners involved in future

studies and foresight.

Founded in February 2003, Riga

FORWARD STUDIES UNITFORWARD STUDIES UNIT

to to the Latvian Union ofthe Latvian Union of Scientists Scientists

Functions are related to activities

at organizational, national and European levels aimed at:

creating of learning space coordination of foresight activities

information production monitoring

dissemination

Address:Address: AkadAkadeemijas laukums 1- 611a, mijas laukums 1- 611a, RRiiga, LV-1524, Latviaga, LV-1524, Latvia

Latvian Union of Scientists (LUS)

Dr.hab. Janis Strauchmanis, Chairman

Tel (371) 9486283

Dr.Arturs Puga, Head of Forward Studies Unit

Tel / fax (371) 7589623, apfstudies@netscape.net

FORESIGHT IN

THE EUROPEAN UNION

11 April 2023

THE FORESIGHT DIMENSION OF THE FORESIGHT DIMENSION OF THE EUROPEAN RESEARCH AREATHE EUROPEAN RESEARCH AREA

During the past Community Framework Programmes, many collaborative actions have been initiated at European level, but now is the time to bring our endeavours together, and to build a space for research and innovation equivalent of the ‘common market’ for goods and services.

...our policy proposal for the European Research Area, when we made it early 2000, had itself some of the key features of an exercise in foresight;

Mr. Philippe Busquin, European Commissioner

for Research. 'The role of foresight in the selection of research policy priorities'

Foresighting Europe,Foresighting Europe, Issue 1Issue 1 , March 2003, March 2003 Newsletter of Newsletter of he Science and Technology Foresight Unithe Science and Technology Foresight Unit,, Directorate Directorate

K , K ,

DG Research , European CommissionDG Research , European Commission

there are specific European policies (the Lisbon Strategy, the development of the ERA, the reform of European Governance) that call for a greater and more co-ordinated attention to Foresight thinking

http://www.cordis.lu/foresight/home.html

http://www.cordis.lu/foresight/reports.htm

http://www.cordis.lu/foresight/newsletter.htm

ForesightForesight contributes positively to strategic intelligence:contributes positively to strategic intelligence:

Aimed at producing orientations rather than predictions.It provides scenarios to decision makers thus opening their readiness for change;

Includes multiple perspectives, multiple actors and multiple disciplines;

Focused on opportunities and risks alike; Emphasizes the interrelations between the technological,

economic, social and cultural sectors of society.

Why Foresight ?Why Foresight ?

Due to accelerated social and technological change, a new culture of future-oriented thinking in society is needed. Decision makers need to acquire new skills in the face of declining role of traditional value systems and the erosion of traditional interest groups combined with calls for more accountability and accelareted technological change.

Thinking, debating and shapingThinking, debating and shaping the the future:future:Foresight for EuropeForesight for Europe Report by HLEG for the European Commission, Report by HLEG for the European Commission, 25 April, 200225 April, 2002

This new culture should focus on producing a strategic framework for better-informed policies, based upon transparent, participatory and flexible decision-making in face of complex challenges.

Foresight has an impact on all policy Foresight has an impact on all policy fieldsfields

Starting from a science & technology perspective, and then integrating horizontal ‘science-society’ questions, Foresight activities contribute to the development of European knowledge-base and propose visions for the future of European society. They thus offer a framework for policy development, allowing a coherent development of these policies in all fields.

HLEG on ‘Developing foresight to strengthen HLEG on ‘Developing foresight to strengthen the strategic basis of the ERA’ the strategic basis of the ERA’

Chair,Chair, Prof. Luk Van LangenhoveProf. Luk Van Langenhove ftp://ftp.cordis.lu/pub/foresight/docs/for_hleg_final_report_en.pdfftp://ftp.cordis.lu/pub/foresight/docs/for_hleg_final_report_en.pdf

Science and technology foresight in Europe: A prospective view...The role of foresight in the selection of research policy priorities'

Towards 2010Towards 2010

EC, Employment and Social Affairs DG, Knowledge Society

http://europa.eu.int/comm/employment_social/index_en.htm

11 April 2023

Rise of Knowledge SocietyRise of Knowledge Society

“Knowledge Society is a post-industrial society based on production and dissemination of information that increases individuals and companies’ knowledge”.

Foresight for the deveoplment of higher education/research relations in the perspective of the European Research Area (ERA). By Prof. Etienne Bourgeois, Rapporteur. EC, DG Research, Unit RTD-K.2. October 2002. p. 10

Governing in time: long-termism and the role of futuresthinking in the UK Government ( Conference The role of foresight ...)By Prof. Geoff Mulgan, Director Prime Minister’s Strategy Unit(UK Prime Minister’s Office)

European Knowledge Society Foresight – a Handbook of Methodology

European Knowledge European Knowledge SocietySociety Foresight Foresight- a Handbook of - a Handbook of

MethodologyMethodology

European Knowledge European Knowledge SocietySociety Foresight Foresight- a Handbook of - a Handbook of

MethodologyMethodology

November 2002

PREST and FFRC

for the European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions

Foresight as a ProcessForesight as a Process

Renewal

Pre-Foresight

RecruitmentGeneration

Action

Experts

PanelsIntelligence Gathering

Knowledge FusingVisioning

Targeting

Synthesis

Dissemination

Implementation

Stakeholders

Scoping

Foresight as a Process: Foresight as a Process: methodsmethods

Renewal

PreForesight

RecruitmentGeneration

Action

Monitoring

Management

Evaluation

Foresight

Informing and legitimising action,

establishing preparedness

Sharing visions. Exchanging knowledge, mutual understanding...

Identifying indicators and determining goals, evaluation processes

and mechanisms

Foresight’s triple base

Strategic action plansStrategic action plans

Planning tools and techniques, priority setting,

etc.

Futures reports, scenarios, forecasts and visions

Futures reports, scenarios, forecasts and visions

Futures methods,

forecasting techniques, modelling & visionary

approaches, etc.

Broadening participation, establishing and reinforcing

networksNetworking tools and techniques,

groupwork and facilitation, survey approaches, etc.

Fore-

sight FuturesPlan-ning

Network-ing

HANDBOOK OF KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY FORESIGHT

http://les.man.ac.uk/PREST/euforia/handbook.htm http://les.man.ac.uk/PREST/euforia/documents/EFL_Handbook_April_2003.pdf

http://www.wbcsd.ch/DocRoot/LUWbCOQ8l1DFtZv5WB0U/20021118_sdmap.pdf SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

(a wiring diagram of the global challenges)

11 April 2023

FORESIGHT FORESIGHT SYSTEM SYSTEM

‘Foresight constitutes a systematic attempt to observe the long-term future of science, technology, society, the economy and their mutual interactions in order to generate knowledge with which to effect social, economic and environmental improvements based on well founded projections.

11 April 2023

FORESIGHT FORESIGHT SYSTEMSYSTEM

However, it is not enough to establish a clear and efficient technology to conduct foresight. It is also vitally important to ensure that foresight outcomes are taken into consideration in policy debates and decision making. Only in this way can its maximum benefits be obtained.’

Ramon Marimon. Spanish Secretary of State for

Science and Technology. Conference ‘The role of foresight in the selection of research policy priorities’.

Prospective and Foresight: Prospective and Foresight: towards a convergence ?towards a convergence ?

Fabienne GOUX-BAUDIMENT

proGective / euroProspective

Francehttp://foren.jrc.es/docs/conference/session 4/presentation goux baudiment.ppt

A B

C

Sometimes the shortest way from A to B is not the direct one

The Japanese “Vision” will be C, even 9 x C ! The long road from technology to society The shortest one from territory to society…

The Easiest Way to Face The The Easiest Way to Face The ConfrontationConfrontation

““Vision” as Origin of ForesightVision” as Origin of Foresight

1963, the Japanese “Vision” :– A public administration technology for

shaping the future– The future to be shaped brings together

expected, possible and preferred futures– A concrete blueprint in a close interaction with

general [industrial] policy– Policy implementation in which contributors

to the Vision are given broad participation.

““Vision” as Origin of ForesightVision” as Origin of Foresight

1960’s-1980’s, the key factors of success :– Formulated from a total comprehensive system

perspective– Given further consideration by experts of related fields– Are joint products between government and

representatives from a broad spectrum– Prompt policy reaction implemented in response– Contributors can participate in consortia and conduct

what they proposed (here: R&D)

““Vision” as Origin of ForesightVision” as Origin of Foresight 1990’s, a Turning Point and a new “Vision”:

– Government and industry no longer shared the same expectations and preferences: dissensus

– Immediate result shows: a real quality of listening to each other (change of strategy,

from creation to consolidation) the need of an integrated and interdisciplinary approach,

with interministerial implementation, to face crisis and complex issues

the implementation of large discussions (single forum for advisory councils, Competitiveness Council of Ministers and Chairmen of leading firms)

A strong top-down initiative by the Prime Minister, challenging the autonomy of the “Visions” concept.

The Heritage of “Visions”The Heritage of “Visions”

Comprehensive Concrete Consensus Commitment Credibility

Communication Concentration Coordination Consortia

First Convergence…First Convergence…

The Japanese Vision is anchored into the R&D in the S&T field in conjunction with economy; v. technological forecast: normative process, interdisciplinary and integrated approach, broad participation, open future

Foresight is the process involved in systematically attempting to look into the LT future of T S,, the economy and society to identify the areas of strategic research and the emerging generic technologies likely to yield the greatest economic and social benefits. Benjamin R. MARTIN, 1995

Foresight: The Long RoadForesight: The Long Road

a comparison between German and Japanese approach for technology foresight shows the impacts of the cultural factors (1994)

The point of the world paradigm shift (1990’s) is human being (society & values)

Foresight is moving from technology to society (Australia, UK)

Foresight pushes the boundaries of perception forward by assessing the implications of present actions, detecting and avoiding problems before they occur, considering the present implications of possible future events, and envisioning aspects of desired futures. Richard A. SLAUGHTER, 1996.

The Short Road: The Short Road: The French ProspectiveThe French Prospective

From the Government (1970’s): prospective as a tool for planning (CGP & DATAR)

To Regions (1980’s): regional prospective as a strategic tool

To sub-regions (counties, cities, metropolitan area) (1990’s): territorial prospective as a tool for planning and local governance

A long tradition : 85 exercises of regional and territorial prospective identified from 1988 to 2000

Key Words For Territorial Key Words For Territorial ProspectiveProspective

Human being as the centre of any meaning

Future to be built Problem-solving, concrete Interdisciplinary Long term view Systemic thinking

Responsibility: involve relevant actors (stakeholders)

Project based on a shared vision

Large participation Introduce and

accompany change Rigorous methodology

Territorial Prospective:Territorial Prospective:Still A Step ForwardStill A Step ForwardS&T / economy

Government / firmsMT: 10 years

Immediate response S&T / economy / societyGovernment / experts

MT: 10 years?

territory / economy / societyLocal actors / stakeholders

LT: 15-20 yearsSelf-made project / planning

MT

LTactions programmes general framework

Differences Differences foresight/prospectiveforesight/prospective

The bottom/up – top/down process

government

Regions, Cities…

foresight prospective

Autonomy of Territories

Differences Differences foresight/prospectiveforesight/prospectivesectoral – comprehensive field

foresight

prospective

S & T

society economy

territory

Differences Differences foresight/prospectiveforesight/prospective

A future to anticipate or a future to build?

foresight

territorialprospective

exploratory

classicalmethodology

normative

advancedmethodology

Differences Differences foresight/prospectiveforesight/prospective

A future to anticipate or a future to build?

foresight

prospective

exploratory

process results

normative

Spaces For ConvergenceSpaces For Convergence

Participation:– Who: authorities, experts, stakeholders,

population ? Collective intelligence– How: consultation, “concertation”, ongoing

process ? Knowledge base– Outcomes: consortia, networks, projects,

planning ? (from bottom-up to top-down ?)– Why? As a tool for governance

(cf. the French law Voynet)

Spaces For ConvergenceSpaces For Convergence

Sustainability issues– No global solution without local drastic change– The principle of subsidiarity – The new legitimacy: the initiative of action– Quality of life and environment as a new competitive

advantage in the territorial competition– S&T, economy, society and environment as a

comprehensive challenge for tomorrow morning

11 April 2023

FORESIGHT FORESIGHT PHILOSOPHY PHILOSOPHY

Prof. Ortwinn RennEU-Conference ‘Foresight: Challenges for Europe’s Regions’

Future ir product of human activities and random events.Foresight explores the space for human activities and interventions to shape the future (contingencies).Foresight provides options rather than predictions.Foresight provides guidance to all actors and reduces uncertainty and ambiquity.

http://medlab.cs.uoi.gr/conf2003/background.htm

“FORESIGHT IN THE ENLARGED EUROPEAN RESEARCH AND

INNOVATION AREA”IOANNINA, Greece, 15 – 16 May, 2003

Ioannina Conference Manifesto Ioannina Conference Manifesto for Foresight Cooperation in an Enlarged European for Foresight Cooperation in an Enlarged European

Research and Innovation AreResearch and Innovation Areaa

Foresight refers to the 'basis' and its success depends on the 'basis'. The overall aim of foresight cooperation should be outlined in a single phrase: "increase democracy in governance and in building a more powerful Europe".

Foresight cooperation, nevertheless, should not be a

goal in itself. It should serve the need for national/regional

systems to open up and allow for coordination and

collaboration, and should also serve the aim to inform, sensitise, encourage and support people in getting

actively involved in shaping the future they desire in the world

they live in.

LATVIA TOWARDS

KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY

Current issues and Current issues and challengeschallenges

Visions from Forward Studies UnitVisions from Forward Studies Unit A.Puga, J.Štrauhmanis. Latvijas Zinātnieku

savienībā. Aicinājums uz diskusiju par nākotnes studijām Latvijā. ( A Call for the discussion on the development of future studies in Latvia, by Forward Studies Unit to the Latvian Union of Scientists).

Zinātnes Vēstnesis ( Science Herald), # 7 (257), 14. 04. 2003. (in Latvian)

http://www.lza.lv/zv/zv030700.htm#4

Current issues and Current issues and challengeschallenges

Visions from Forward Studies UnitVisions from Forward Studies Unit

A.Puga. Nākotnes studijas Eiropā ( Future studies and foresight in Europe ) .

Zinātnes Vēstnesis (Science Herald),

# 10 (260), 26. 05. 2003.  (in Latvian)

http://www.lza.lv/zv/zv031000.htm#7

Current issues and Current issues and challengeschallenges

Visions from Forward Studies UnitVisions from Forward Studies Unit Epistemology and man

Knowledge and science is the assimilation of the message of freedom placed by Christ in the heart of man

Science and the Future of Mankind: Science for Man and Man for Science.The proceedings of the Preparatory Session 12-14 November 1999 and the Jubilee Plenary Session 10-13 November 2000, Pontificia Academia Scientiarym. p.14

Current issues and Current issues and challengeschallenges

Dr. Luk Van Langenhove Rethinking the social sciences: initiatives from multilateral organizations

First, there is a need to re-invent the infrastuctural needs. Living in a globalised world means that national infrastructures will have to be framed into international structures.

... the ITC revolution is changing the way

in which the social sciences research is performed and communicated.

Unity and diversity: the contribution of the social sciences and the humanities to the European Research Area. Proceedings of the Belgian EU Presidency research conference, 29-30 October, 2001, Bruges. p. 22 - 27

Current issues and Current issues and challengeschallenges

Secondly, the public legitimisation of

the social sciences need to be reinvented

...legitimisation depends upon the

claim of making the world more inteligeble and upon the contribution to the problem-solving and policy-making in society.

Current issues and Current issues and challengeschallenges

Dealing with complexity is possible the most challenging task before us.

It means that the social sciences will have to be able to investigate the complex social reality at its different temporal, spatial and aggregation levels.

Current issues and Current issues and challengeschallenges

Dr. Luk Van Langenhove Rethinking the social sciences:

initiatives from multilateral organizations

Fourthly, a re-invention of the disciplinary structures seems a pressing task. While most research is still done from the vantage point of single disciplines, social problems are multidisciplinary.

Together these four challenges can be

interpreted as a plea for change.

Current issues and Current issues and challengeschallenges

Visions from Forward Studies UnitVisions from Forward Studies Unit

Rethinking Talcott Parsonsfor methodology and constructive approach

globalization system of modern

societies theory of

action

Forward Studies Unit Forward Studies Unit Research orientationResearch orientation

Future Latvia in European knowledge society

European scenarios

 System theory and comparative research

on post-communist capitalism in Europe ( system aspects, driving forces, trends,

challenges, interrelations, options)

Forward Studies Unit Forward Studies Unit Research orientationResearch orientation

Transnational foresight collaboration in

the development of the ERA

 Social foresight

Foresight information dissemination

A European approach implies that A European approach implies that the foresight topics to be chosen the foresight topics to be chosen

should fulfil criteria such as:should fulfil criteria such as:

a.Targetedb.Particularly complexc.Concerning a ‘missing’ fieldd.Right timinge.Effect on European dimension

or in need of European dimension

(Foresight for Europe...)

STRENGTHENING THE DIMENSION OFSTRENGTHENING THE DIMENSION OF

FFORESIGHT IN THE EUROPEAN RESEARCH AREA,ORESIGHT IN THE EUROPEAN RESEARCH AREA, An outline Guide to opportunities offered by the 6th European Community Research Framework

Programmefor supporting co-operation in the field of foresight in

Europe, EC, DG Research, Unit RTD-K.2. 2002

FP 6. Find a partnerhttp://www.cordis.lu/fp6/partners.htm

 FP 6. Citizens and Governance in knowledge-based society

Find a partner/ project www.cordis.lu/citizens/home.html

Forward Studies Unit Forward Studies Unit in Rigain Riga

would highly appreciate all comments, improvements and proposals in the context of the development of future

studies and foresight in Latvia returning Europe.

apfstudies@netscape.net

The end of presentation