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Foresight and strategy workat Tekes
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at Tekes
Examples of Foresight Methodology 30.3.2012
Pirjo Kyläkoski
02-2012Dm # 919038
Maailman teollisuustuotannon jakauma 1750-2100
40
50
60
70%
Itä-Aasia
Pohjois-Amerikka
Eurooppa
Copyright © Tekes 4Lähteet: Bairoch (1982), ETLA.
0
10
20
30
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
Itä-Aasia = Kiina, Japani, IntiaPohjois-Amerikka = Yhdysvallat, KanadaEurooppa = Saksa, Iso-Britannia, Ranska, Italia, Espanja, Ruotsi, Belgia, Sveitsi
Tuottavuuskasvun pääajurien pitkä historia
Pajarinen–Rouvinen–Ylä-Anttila: Missä arvo syntyy? Suomi globaalissa kilpailussa. Taloustieto (ETLA B 247). Sivu 22.
Value added
Does the value network still smile?
R&d&i
Design
Branding
Service, maintain
Pre production Production After production
Intangible phase Tangible Intangible phase
Proto, pilot
Start ofproduction
Mass production
Distribution
Selling
Marketing High cost countries
Low cost countries
Source: ETLA
Some challenges for approaches and practises
Network agility
ComplexityUncertainty
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Spontaneity
Creativity
Wisdom
Unexpectedness
Interdependancy
04-2010DM
Utilization of foresight
ForesightForesight--> Insight > Insight --> Strategy > Strategy --> Actions> Actions
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ForesightForesight--> Insight > Insight --> Strategy > Strategy --> Actions> Actions
Tekes – Foresight and strategy work
Strategy Focus areas
Year 3
Strategy processTrends and drivers
Implementation through customers- Programs- SHOKs- Projects
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Year1
Year 2
Strategy processTrends and drivers
Strategy processTrends and drivers
- Projects
Foresight
Benchmark-information
Foresight -Insight –Strategy
FuturePast Decision making
Development of Innovation ecosystem
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Evaluation Implementation
FuturePast Decision making
Operations and their implications
Levels in drivers of change
Megatrends
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Changes in Innovation ecosystem
Signals
03-2010DM
Analysis of Innovation Environment
Economy andBusiness environment
Demography
Socio-culturalvalues and attitudes
approaches and practises
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Innovation
ecosystem
Political
legal
Globalenvironmental(sustainability)
Scientific
technological
How to monitor early discontinuities?
Signal strength
Zone of
diminishing
returns
signal
Threshold ofmainstream
awareness
Wisdom
of
crowds
Filter
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Brian Coffman (1997): Growth of signal in a noisy channel
Zone of highest opportunityand greatest risks
Signal strength
returns
noise
Time
Filter
Theory
Starting point in search of renewal
Disruptive
Wide committment
Combiningdifferent
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Renewal
Disruptivepaths different
needs
02-2012DM
Foresight metodology
� Megatrends, trends, signals
� Analysis of business environment
� Crowd-sourcing – commitment
� Workshops, “sudden collisions” – multidiciplinarity
� Visioning – scenarios, future windows, future pictures, narratives,
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� Visioning – scenarios, future windows, future pictures, narratives, future telling
� Sense-making sessions – signals, international expertise, crowd sourcing
� Delfoi-techniques, social media
� Disruptive paths, paradigm changes, black swans, extreme events
� White spots
� Context maps – to show integrated complex content
� Benchmarking
� Road-maps 02-2012DM
� Strategic themes� Multidisciplinary competences
needed for themes
The interface of Tekes’ strategy
Trends anddrivers
Globalmegatrends and weak signals
Tekes vision, strategy and resources
Global foresight� EU, USA, China
Japan and othercountries
Global business environment andglobal players
FinNodenetwork
MoJ MoD
MSAHMoEMTC
MEE
MAF
MoI
MEnv
MoF
PM’s OfficeMFA
Ministries
MFAEmbassy Network
MFAEmbassy
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needed for themes
� Potential areas for new businessfrom cooperation or paradigm changes of clusters
Society’s values and goals
e.g. ETLAand SitraRegional
strategies and visions
Academy ofFinland
Customer relationships,programmes,project fundingstrategy discussions
SCSTIs
Finpro
DM 36940703-2008 Copyright © Tekes
SCSTIs
Industryorganisations andtheir strategies
Finnvera
Researchorganisations,universities
Enterprises
Embassy Network
Growth and wellbeing from renewalTekes funds leading edge research, development and innovation projects.
Tekes strategy in a nutshell
How?Means
What?Services
What willchange?
Focusareas
For whom?Customers
Why?Objectives
• Balanced portfolio of reactive and proactive funding programmes
• Priority to growth-seeking, innovative SME’s
• Increased focus on forerunners and strategic
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change?areasObjectives
Challenges in the innovation environment
Mission statement and values
• Increased focus on forerunners and strategic innovations
• Customer success in global value networks
• Services and non-technical contents asimportant as industry and technologies
• Tekes will play a more essential role in the innovation services cooperation network
• A more customer-oriented and flexible approachStrategic research areas
determined by the Strategic Centres for Science,
Technology andInnovation
Value creation based on service solutions and intangible assets
Business in global value networks
Renewing services and production by digital means
Naturalresources and
sustainableeconomy
Intelligentenvironments
Vitalityof people
Value creation based on service
Business in global value networks Natural
resources andsustainable
economy
Focus areas
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Strategic research areasdetermined by the Strategic
Centres for Science, Technology and
Innovation
Value creation based on service solutions and intangible assets
Renewing services and production by digital means
Intelligentenvironments
Vitalityof people
Foresight work with Tekes’ committment
� Background:• The Future is in knowledge and competence,Technology strategy – a review of
choices, 2002
• Building on Innovation – Priorities for the Future, 2005
• FinnSight 2015, 2006
• NISTEP- Tekes -Foresight cooperation 2008-2009
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• NISTEP- Tekes -Foresight cooperation 2008-2009
• People, Environment, Economy – Building blocks for the Future, 2008
• National Innovation strategy, 2008 (MEE)
• International Evaluation of Finnish Innovation System, 2009 (MEE)
• Playing Fields of the Future – Four Global Scenarios, 2009 (Business Forum Finland + Tekes)
• Tekes four scenarios, 2010
• Research and Innovation Policy Guidelines for 2011-2015 ( The Research and Innovation Council of Finland, 2011
• Tekes strategy – Growth and wellbeing from renewal, 2011
• Government Foresight work, 2012-201311-2009DM
Government foresight: the target of the project
• The target is to crystallize the insight of the government of Finland in 2030 and to define those actions to secure sustainable growth and well-being of citizens. The implementation of the policy is also promoted
The foresight result can be widely utilized • The foresight result can be widely utilized among different actors of the Finnish society in their strategy and policy work
• The project is a pilot for national foresight model to create a Finnish competitive advantage and an element for pioneering
• The approach is interactive and co-operative
The societal impact of the government foresight
The healthy and well-being society
Sustainableenvironment
Responsible and productive economy
People
Governmental foresight – The model of sustainable growth
The most efficient utilization of
various background information and
coordination of projects and reports Policy
d
Foresightthemes
Foresightwork
Governmentalpolicy
definition
Global benchmark
defi
Nnition
Conclusions
� Finland – as forerunner – needs strong and advanced foresight work and “strategic intelligence” for fast decision making
� We need active constructive discussion on future alternative paths and multidiscipline discussion forums
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� We need those who catalyze discussions and bring disruptive ideas –challegers
� Foresight has crucial role in complexity management
� Systems architecture needs multidimensional foresight and understanding of interdependances
� We aim to make the future instead of reacting on issues that we face
03-2012DM