Post on 29-Jan-2016
Forecasting NOAA’s
Future
Forecasting NOAA’s
Future
Brigadier General John J. Kelly Jr., (USAF, Ret.)Deputy Under Secretary for Oceans & AtmosphereAMS Corporate ForumMarch 9, 2006
Brigadier General John J. Kelly Jr., (USAF, Ret.)Deputy Under Secretary for Oceans & AtmosphereAMS Corporate ForumMarch 9, 2006
DRAFT: Forecasting NOAA’s Future – AMS Corporate Forum
2
Menu
Who Cares about Earth Observations?
GEOSS Update Near Term Opportunities IOOS Status of NOAA Satellite Systems
NOAA Budget Outlook
Partnerships
DRAFT: Forecasting NOAA’s Future – AMS Corporate Forum
3
Who cares about Earth Observation
Data?We Must Promote Societal Benefits of Integrated Observations
courtesy Environmental AgencyAugust 31, 2005 provided by NOAA
Levee breakLevee break
DRAFT: Forecasting NOAA’s Future – AMS Corporate Forum
4
Important to NOAA’s Mission
Max Mayfield
DRAFT: Forecasting NOAA’s Future – AMS Corporate Forum
5
GEOSS & US GEOIntegrated Observations &
Data ManagementGEOSS
A director of the GEO Secretariat has been hired
We have a 2006 work plan at the international level
GEO-Netcast The U.S. agreed to move a
geostationary satellite to provide better environmental satellite coverage over South America.
US GEO
Plans are being developed for the six following areas for completion in early 2006
Air Quality Disasters NIDIS Sea Level Change Land Observations Architecture & Data Management
DRAFT: Forecasting NOAA’s Future – AMS Corporate Forum
6
The VisionProvide the right information, in the
right format, at the right time, to the right people,
to make the right decisions.
DRAFT: Forecasting NOAA’s Future – AMS Corporate Forum
7
The Vision Must Be Followed By The
VentureGEOSS will provide scientific basis for sound policy decisions in every sector of our society
Increase our capability to address natural disasters
Coordination presents challenges but is necessary for our efforts to be effective
We are moving forward Moving GOES Satellite GEO NetCast
DRAFT: Forecasting NOAA’s Future – AMS Corporate Forum
8
Near Term Opportunity
Air QualityThis plan identifies need for:
Integrated Observation-Model Air Quality Fields
Systems for Utilizing Observations to Improve AQ Forecasts
Assessments of Key Air Quality Processes
Improved Emissions Inventories
Improved International Transport Assessments
DRAFT: Forecasting NOAA’s Future – AMS Corporate Forum
9
Near Term Opportunity
National Integrated Drought
Information System (NIDIS) Identifies critical gaps in the nation’s infrastructure, which inhibit our ability to most effectively reduce the impact of drought
Early opportunities to address gaps include: Improvements in the frequency, timeliness, and density of key
observations Creation of an Internet portal to provide a drought early warning system Establishment of a NIDIS operations office to ensure optimization of
existing Federal, state, local and private sector observations and information delivery
Tracks to GEOSS and IEOS benefit areas Water Resource Management Disasters Sustainable Agriculture Climate Variability and Change
DRAFT: Forecasting NOAA’s Future – AMS Corporate Forum
10
Near Term
Opportunity Sea Level Change
Near Term Opportunity – Sea Level
Identifies needs for direct ocean observations, coastal observations, ice sheet measurements and associated observations, and reference frames
DRAFT: Forecasting NOAA’s Future – AMS Corporate Forum
11
Near Term Opportunity Land Observing
Identifies three enhancements that would be the basis of a functional GLOS:
Mid-decadal global data set of high resolution (30m) satellite imagery in 2006
Global land data base at high resolution (30m) and the seasonal collection of such data (i.e., continuity of Landsat-type observations)
Extension of a network (Global Integrated Trends Analysis Network) that combines ground data and earth observations from aircraft and space to evaluate land cover trends
Tracks to GEOSS and IEOS benefit areas: Terrestrial Ecosystems Climate Variability and Change Disasters Biodiversity Sustainable Agriculture/Combating Desertification
DRAFT: Forecasting NOAA’s Future – AMS Corporate Forum
12
Near Term Opportunity
NOAA Target ArchitectureTarget Architecture Principles:
Utility Interoperability Flexibility Sustainability Affordability
Coordinated with allappropriate partners
(international & national)
DRAFT: Forecasting NOAA’s Future – AMS Corporate Forum
13
Near Term Opportunity
Disasters-Tsunami Warning System
USGEO Near-Term Opportunity
Improved tsunami and coastal inundation forecast and warning capability
GEO Near-Term Effort Working Group on Tsunami
Activities continuing to provide integration observation requirements to the Indian Ocean Tsunami Early Warning System effort
DRAFT: Forecasting NOAA’s Future – AMS Corporate Forum
14
Integrated Ocean Observing System
(IOOS)
Tide Gauges
Argo Floats
Tsunami Buoys
Hurricane Buoys
AVHRR
DRAFT: Forecasting NOAA’s Future – AMS Corporate Forum
15
NOAA Satellite Program Status
National Polar Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System
(NPOESS)Technical Challenges and Cost Overruns to the Program
Independent Program Assessment Team provided analysis of options for the program
Options being evaluating by cost analysis experts
Proposed changes to structure of Integrated Program Office Program Executive structure under review
Nunn-McCurdy notification to Congress in January Currently working with Air Force to recertify the program
Dedicated to finding appropriate solution
FY07 President’s Request – $337.89M for NOAA, up $20.3M Matching request in the Air Force budget
DRAFT: Forecasting NOAA’s Future – AMS Corporate Forum
16
NOAA Satellite Program Status
Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R Program
(GOES-R)The Secretary of Commerce approved next phase of program development—System Program Definition and Risk Reduction (PDRR). Three industry teams awarded – Boeing Space Systems, Lockheed Martin, and Northrop Grumman
FY06 Budget President’s Request—$241M; Enacted—$219M
FY07 President’s Request—$335.8M, up $113.4M
GOES-R System Acquisition and Operations projected for 2007
RFP release planned for end of Calendar Year 2006
DRAFT: Forecasting NOAA’s Future – AMS Corporate Forum
17
$3.7$3.6$3.3$3.2
$2.4
$2.8$3.1
$3.4
$3.9$3.9$3.7
$3.3$3.3$3.1
$2.4
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
FY 2000 FY 2001 FY 2002 FY 2003 FY 2004 FY 2005 FY 2006 FY 2007
President’s Budget Enacted
NOAA Budget
($ in Billions)
DRAFT: Forecasting NOAA’s Future – AMS Corporate Forum
18
Current Environment
Appropriations Reorganization a Surprise
NOAA will now be considered by both the Senate and House subcommittees with:
=$16.5B FY ‘06 budget request
=$5.6B FY ’06 budget request
=$3.6B FY ’06 budget request
Although budget allocations should cover all of the requests, it is ultimately up to the Subcommittees to divvy up the money
DRAFT: Forecasting NOAA’s Future – AMS Corporate Forum
19
Intersection of Public Sector &
Private Sector NeedsHow do we get the “biggest bang for the buck”?
Prioritize needs based on benefits
Target resources to highest priorities
Leverage existing activities and investments
Build GEOSS/IEOS principles into planning of future systems
Questions?
Questions?
Background SlidesBackground Slides
DRAFT: Forecasting NOAA’s Future – AMS Corporate Forum
22
Near Term Opportunity
NOAA Target ArchitectureNOAA approved new Target Architecture
Observation System features and functions Expressed in terms of relationships, interfaces, processes
(including business) and constraints
Includes Three Components: The baseline architecture describes the current features and
functions of NOAA’s Observation System. The target architecture describes the desired features and
functions of NOAA’s future Observation System. An iterative process is used to move from the baseline architecture
to the target architecture.
DRAFT: Forecasting NOAA’s Future – AMS Corporate Forum
23
Data ManagementOngoing NOAA Efforts
NOAA’s Integrated Global Observation & Data Management Plan—2005 Update
Refined and updated observing system baseline architecture
Performing gap analysis between observing requirements and observing capabilities
Started investment analysis to determine efficient mix of observing systems to achieve requirements
Established NOAA-wide data standards group Implementing Comprehensive Large Array-data Stewardship System (CLASS) web-based data
archive and distribution system for NOAA’s environmental data
DRAFT: Forecasting NOAA’s Future – AMS Corporate Forum
24
ResearchTechnology and NOAA in the 21st
CenturySensors—Rugged and low cost
Platforms—Mobile, unmanned aerial and autonomous undersea vehicles
Information technology—Higher computer processing speed ; better data management and analysis tools
Telecommunications—Global networks will link modeling centers with service providers and users
These technologies will be exploited in developing an integrated Global Earth Observing System of Systems (GEOSS) and holistic,
high resolution Earth system models
DRAFT: Forecasting NOAA’s Future – AMS Corporate Forum
25
Research NOAA Products and Services in
2025
Dramatic Improvements in
Forecasting Extreme Events
Highly Skillful
Seasonal to Decadal Climate
Predictions
Improved Understanding of
Physical, Chemical,
Biological, and Societal
Interactions
National Suite of Air Quality Services
Ocean Exploration for
Humankind
DRAFT: Forecasting NOAA’s Future – AMS Corporate Forum
26
Summary by Line Office
$ in millions
Line OfficeFY 06
Enacted
FY 07 Current
Program
Net Program Increase
FY 07 President’s
Budget
Percent Change (over Current
Program)
NOS $590.5 $369.1 $44.1 $413.1 11.9%
NMFS $811.5 $656.6 $81.1 $737.7 12.4%
OAR $379.6 $310.4 $38.2 $348.7 12.3%
NWS $848.2 $838.4 $43.5 $881.9 5.2%
NESDIS $952.2 $916.4 $117.4 $1,033.9 12.8%
PS/Other $491.0 $385.1 $21.0 $406.1 5.5%
Total $3,911.5 $3,338.8 $345.4 $3,684.1 10.3%
*Total includes financing adjustments
DRAFT: Forecasting NOAA’s Future – AMS Corporate Forum
27
PartnershipsNOAA Partnership Policy
“recognizes cooperation, not competition, with private sector and academic and research entities best serves the public interest.”