For IP Communications, Ubiquity is Dead

Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis

BICS Mobility in Action, Bruges, Oct 29th 2013

dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com @disruptivedean

About Disruptive Analysis

London-based analyst house & strategic consulting firm

Cross-silo, contrarian, visionary, independent

Advisor to telcos, vendors, regulators & investors

Covering VoIP since 1997 & 3G/4G mVoIP since 2007

Critic of RCS since 2008

Published report on “Telco-OTT Strategies”, Feb 2012

New report on WebRTC, Feb 2013

Workshops on Future of Voice & TelcoOTT

Twitter @disruptivedean Blog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.com

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 October 2013

Neuroscience explains reluctance to change

Predictable irrationality

Endowment effect

Optimism bias

Confirmation bias

Defence of belief systems

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Voice & messaging are fragmenting

Convergence

& standards

Fragmentation & differentiation

Telephony & SMS will continue to exist, but there will be NO

more standard, interoperable services

Comforting myths

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QoS is critical

Interoperability is essential

Minutes / messages = value

“Voice” = ubiquitous phone calls

Uncomfortable reality

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QoS is only sometimes critical

Interoperability is essential

for basic lowest-common

denominator services only

Intention & outcomes = value

Phone calls are

becoming less useful

In the beginning – “Proxi-phone”

Near voice

Contextual

Managed interruptions

Background +/-

Sync + Async

Not “session” based

Etiquette, not regulation

Varying importance

Natural

Old distant voice [Tele-phone]

Strictly session-based

Limited context

Background negative

One-size fits all

Unnatural etiquette

Heavily regulated

... but eventually ubiquitous

>100 years ago

Pretty good for the 19th century...

“Hegemony

of the

caller”

... but really not good enough for 21st century

Voice ≠ Telephony

• Now: 2G & 3G • Future: Smartphones & LTE

Voice

Telephony

Voice

Telephony

Video, context, sense Video

Gaming, CEBP,

surveillance, social

voice, TV voice etc

Voicemail

Conferencing

PTT

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Comms moving “in-context”

Fragmentation of communications models

Standalone calls

Non-call comms

Embedded app/web

calls

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Circuit IP

Good to have “lowest

common denominator”

Ubiquity no/negative

benefit

Maybe ubiquitous

in a niche

Intent & context....

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Why do people make

phone calls (or send

messages, share media

or use video), anyway?

Intention & purpose

Exchange information

Sell to a customer

Flirt

Manage staff

Gossip

Tell a story

Show off

Feel connected

Lie or pretend

Self-expression

Context

On the sofa

In a meeting

While online

Using an app

On the street

On public transport

In a bar

Multi-tasking

Duty

Concentrating

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1 OR 2 “UBIQUITOUS” SERVICES

CANNOT FULFILL ALL THESE

PURPOSES WELL

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Tools are cheap/free. So we pick the right ones

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SMS

So how important is quality?

Must have

Nice to have

Meh. I want free

I'll call back

% calls

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 October 2013

Beyond “the minute” as a metric & model

We don’t pay for movies or flights by the minute

Short calls often more valuable than long

Minutes = easy to count

Align pricing – and charging – with value

Needs creativity, on top of standards

Locks telecom industry to obsolete business model

Flat-rate at retail is popular, but wholesale?

Analytics? Cloud processing? Perceived importance?

Regulator mindset needs to shift too

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Service

Product

Feature

Function

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Design & software simpler via the Web

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For telcos WebRTC is really a magnifier/catalyst

Now

With WebRTC

Bigger opportunities

Worse threats

Faster speed Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 October 2013

Ubiquity is dead. And that’s a good thing.

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 October 2013

We’re getting closer to

communications services

& applications meeting

our real human needs

We’ll still need lowest-

common denominator phone

calls & maybe SMS & email.

But that’s it for ubiquity.

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 October 2013

For WebRTC report & quarterly update

details email information@disruptive-

analysis.com

www.disruptive-analysis.com

disruptivewireless.blogspot.com

@disruptivedean

information@disruptive-analysis.com

Skype:disruptiveanalysis

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