Post on 19-May-2015
description
Food Security in the 21st Century: Actions for Better Governance, Market
Functioning, and Investment in Public Goods
Joachim von BraunDirector General
International Food Policy Research Institute
Chatham House conference
London, October 6-7, 2008
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008
Overview
1. Short- and long-term challenges for
food security
2. Global and national food governance
architecture
3. Food market policy
4. Nutrition and social protection policy
5. Agricultural science policy
6. Priorities for action
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008
The short - and long-term challenges for
food security in the 21st century
1. Poverty and malnutrition
2. Income and population growth
3. Productivity and limited resource base
(land and water)
4. Energy and biofuels
5. Climate change
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008
Looking beneath the $1 a day line (2004)
Poor
($.75 cents – $1)
485 million people
Medial poor
($.50 cents – $.75 cents)
323 million people
Ultra poor
(less than $.50 cents)
162 million people
Source: Ahmed et al. 2007.
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008
The ultra poor concentrated in SSA
People living on
$0.75-$1 a day:
485 million
People living on <$0.50 a day:
162 million
People living on $0.50-$0.75 a day:
323 million
SA
16 2 .9 mln
SSA
9 0 .2 mln
EAP
5 1 mln
LAC
16 .6 mln
MENA
0 .9 mln
ECA 1.1 mlnMENA
0.2 mln
ECA 0.4 mlnLAC
11.5 mln
EAP
8.8 mln
SA
19.7 mln
SSA
121 mln
LAC
19 mln
ECA
3 mlnMENA
3.3 mln
EAP
109.3
mln
SSA
87.0
mln
SA
263.6
mln
Source: Ahmed et al. 2007.
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008
1990
Most
recent*
Proportion of undernourished (%) 18.4 17.0
Underweight in children (%) 28.4 22.5
Under-five mortality rate (%) 9.2 7.1
Slow progress in hunger reduction
Sources: FAO 2006 and 2008, UNICEF 2006, WHO 2008.
*Undernourishment: 2007
Underweight: most recent year in 2001-2006
Mortality: 2006
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008
Performance in hunger index and income
Trends in the GHI and GNI per capita (1981, 1992, 1997, 2003)
0
10
20
30
40
50
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000
GNI per capita
GH
I
Ethiopia
India
Ghana
ChinaBrazil
Source: Wiesmann, IFPRI.
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008
Increasing agricultural demand
• Income growth (2005-07 per annum)
- 9% in Asia, 6% in Africa
- 2% in industrialized countries
- slowed down in 2008
• Grains use in ethanol tripled from 2004 to 2008
• Since 2000, global grain use for:
Food 5%, feed 8%
Industrial purposes 38%
Sources: IMF 2008; IGC 2008; FAO 2008.
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008
Increasing competition for land
In the past 12 months land prices in:
• Brazil 16%
• Poland 31%
• UK 47%
• Midwest USA 15%
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008
Increasing water scarcity
• 1.1 billion people do not have access to safe
water
• Large growth in water demand for agriculture
expected in coming decades
• Persistent water shortages in arid and semi-
arid regions
• 10% of world’s diseases could be prevented
with improved water supply, sanitation,
hygiene, resource management
Sources: World Bank 2008, Prüss-Üstün et al. 2008.
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003
Avera
ge a
nnual gro
wth
rate
(%
)
maize
rice
wheat
Source: World Development Report 2008.
Declining productivity growth
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008
Agricultural productivity growth in
developing countries
%
East Asia 2.7
South Asia 1.0
East Africa 0.4
West Africa 1.6
Southern Africa 1.3
Latin America 2.7
NAWA 1.4
AVERAGE 2.1
Annual total factor productivity growth, 1992-2003
Source: von Braun et al. 2008.
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008
Further threats from climate change
Source: Cline 2007.
Climate change impact on agric. production, factoring in
carbon fertilization (%)
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008
Biofuels: Fundamental change in world
food price determination
Energy prices now strongly affect not just
agric. input prices, but also output prices
via grain and oil seed based biofuel
competition
Elastic energy demand creates price bands
for agricultural commodities
Increased biofuel demand in 2000-07
contributed to 30% of weighted average
increase of global grain prices
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008
Overview
1. Short- and long-term challenges for
food security
2. Global and national food governance
architecture
3. Food market policy
4. Nutrition and social protection policy
5. Agricultural science policy
6. Priorities for action
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008
Government effectiveness 2007 &
food protests
Source: Kaufmann, Kraay, and Mastruzzi 2008.
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008
Number of food protests
by type and gov. effectiveness [As of Aug. 2008]
Source: Protests – news reports;
Gov. effectiveness classification – Kaufmann et al. 2008.
From low to high
8 8 911
8 9
32
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
0 -25th 25-50th 50-75th 75-100th
Violent
Non-violent
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008
Food security policy tradeoffs
+ Mass protests in almost 60 countries
+ Inflation and macro-economic imbalances
+ Environmental sustainability consequences
Political security
risks
Energy security
risks
Food security
risks
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008
Food-related global public goods that must
be addressed by governance architecture
• Global food emergency responses
• Trade and standards
• Competition policy
• International agricultural research
• Food safety and agriculture – health links
• Climate change adaptation and mitigation
• Cross-boundary water
• Natural resources (soils, genetic resources, etc.)
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008
Options for the new global governance
system design
1. Improve existing institutions + umbrella
structure for food and agriculture
2. Form an innovative government - to -
government network
3. Expand current system to explicitly
engage new players
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008
Overview
1. Short- and long-term challenges for
food security
2. Global and national food governance
architecture
3. Food market policy
4. Nutrition and social protection policy
5. Agricultural science policy
6. Priorities for action
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008
Ad hoc trade measures add up to policy
failures
• Export bans/restrictions:
- Reduce global market size, increase volatility,
and harm import-dependent trading partners
• Categories of speculators: - Governments, farmers, households, small traders
- Commercial traders
- Non-commercial traders
In Q1 of 2008 futures & options up by 32%
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008
Distrust of markets leads to overseas
investment in agriculture to secure supply
Recent investments:
• China in Kenya, Nigeria, Philippines, Russia,
Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda
• Egypt in Sudan
• Libya in Ukraine
• Saudi Arabia in Thailand; in talks with Sudan,
Egypt, Ukraine, Pakistan, and Turkey
• UAE in Sudan; in talks with Pakistan
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008
Virtual grain reserve policies needed
1. Independent emergency reserve
• Supplied by major producing countries,
funded by G8+5, managed by WFP
2. Virtual global reserve
• Promissory resources by each participant
• Guided by high-level technical commission
• Intervention through futures markets
Source: von Braun and Torero 2008.
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008
Overview
1. Short- and long-term challenges for
food security
2. Global and national food governance
architecture
3. Food market policy
4. Nutrition and social protection policy
5. Agricultural science policy
6. Priorities for action
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008
Impacts of high food prices
Impacts driven by initial conditions and
adjustments in labor, finance, and goods markets
• A 50% increase in food prices in Bangladesh
= 25% more prevalence of iron deficiency in
women and children (Bouis 2008)
•Other malign effects: withdrawal of girls from
school, distress sale of productive assets, etc.
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008
Nutrition policies
Priority areas:
• Conditional cash transfers
• Early childhood nutrition
• School feeding
• Employment-based food security programs
Children’s nutrition is crucial for their
productivity and earnings as adults
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008
Overview
1. Short- and long-term challenges for
food security
2. Global and national food governance
architecture
3. Food market policy
4. Nutrition and social protection policy
5. Agricultural science policy
6. Priorities for action
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008
Underinvestment in agricultural R&D
Expenditure by the CGIAR
Source: CGIAR.
Not enough resources to work at the frontiers of
science (nanotech, biotech, etc.)
0
50
100
150
200
250
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
2005 c
on
sta
nt
US
D,
milli
on
SSA Asia Latin America WANA
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008
Doubling agricultural R&D*
Allocation for
poverty
reduction
Allocation for
maximum
output
SSA 2.8 1.1
S Asia 2.4 1.8
TOTAL (incl. other
regions) 1.1 1.6
Poverty
reduction (Mil.) 282 204
*CGIAR investment rises from US$0.5 to US$1.0 billion
Source: von Braun et al. 2008.
Agricultural output growth, 2008-2020 (% pts.)
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008
“Best Bets” for Research Investments
I. Food for People
Goal Approach Cost(Mil. US$)
Beneficiaries
1Increasing
Productivity of
Crop and
Livestock
Systems
Revitalizing yield growth
in intensive cereal
systems of Asia
150 More than 3
billion people
Ensuring productive and
resilient small-scale
fisheries
73.5 32 million people2
3
Reducing
Vulnerability to
Biotic and
Abiotic Stresses
Controlling wheat rust 37.5 2.9 billion people
Developing vaccine for
East Coast Fever in cattle
10.5 32 million people 4
5 Developing drought-
tolerant maize for Africa
100 320 million
people
6 Improving the
Nutritional
Quality of Food
Scaling up
biofortification
125 672 million
people
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008
“Best Bets” for Research Investments
II. Environment for People
Goal Approach Cost(Mil. US$)
Beneficiaries
7 Addressing
Climate
Change
Increasing carbon
sequestration and
improving livelihoods of
forest people
45 48 million people
8 Increasing the
Resilience of
Agro-
ecosystems
Conducting climate
change and adaptation
research
127.5 1.2 billion people
9 Improving
Soil Fertility
Combining organic and
inorganic nutrients for
increased crop
productivity
55 400 million
people
10 Increasing the
Efficiency of
Water Use
Promoting sustainable
groundwater use
24 261 million
people
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008
“Best Bets” for Research Investments
III. Innovation for People
Goal Approach Cost(Mil. US$)
Beneficiaries
11 Improving Genetic
Resource
Management
Enhancing
germplasm exchange
15 Global impact
12 Undertaking
Institutional
Innovation to
Improve Market
Access
Improving market
information and
value chains
10.5 45 million people
13 Ensuring That
Agricultural
Production
Benefits the Poor,
Especially Women
Including women in
extension and
innovation
30 200 million
people
14 Exploiting
agriculture-health
links to benefit the
poor
75 Global impact
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008
Overview
1. Short- and long-term challenges for
food security
2. Global and national food governance
architecture
3. Food market policy
4. Nutrition and social protection policy
5. Agricultural science policy
6. Priorities for action
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008
Overcoming the information and action gaps
Objectives Activities
1. Information
strengthening and
monitoring
• Internet-based portal
• Capacity-strengthening toolbox
• Facilitation of fast data collection and
estimations
2. Advisory services
for policy actions
• Assessment of impacts of high and
volatile food prices in countries
• Identification of risks and vulnerabilities
• and related actions
3. Closing important
information gaps
• Studies to strengthen actions and
implementation in countries
Source: Benson et al. IFPRI 2008.
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008
Policies for emergency response
and for resilience
1. Nutrition: Expand emergency assistance and
invest in social protection
2. Productivity: Undertake 1) key fast-impact
production programs and 2) scale up agric.
investment and innovation
3. Trade: Re-build trust in regional and global
trade, market-oriented regulation of speculation,
virtual reserves
4. Energy: Change biofuel policies; invest in
innovations that are pro-food and pro-climate
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008
High costs with high payoffs
Annual incremental public agric. investment
required to achieve MDG1 by 2015:
• Developing countries = $14 billion
• SSA = $4.8 billion (if countries fulfill
commitment to invest 10% of budgets to
agriculture)
Source: Fan and Rosegrant 2008.
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008
Implementation of actions must be sound
• Country-driven and -owned programs – with
prioritization and sequencing
• Accountability at international and national
levels: independent monitoring and
assessment
• New global governance architecture of
agriculture, food, and nutrition needed