LET’S WAKE UP THE SLEEPING GIANT

THAT IS IMPEDING GLOBAL

DISASTER RESILIENCE

RIP VAN WINKLE

RIP VAN WINKLE,

THE SLEEPING GIANT,

IS YOU

(AND ME), AND OUR COMMUNITY

ASLEEP--WE FAIL

AWAKE—WE CAN

CHANGE OUR PARADIGMS

IF WE CAN WAKE UP THE

SLEEPING GIANT

- - - WE WILL OVERCOME THE GLOBAL

RIP VAN WINKLE EFFECT

THAT WILL ALLOW

THE 21ST CENTURY

TO BECOME THE CENTURY OF NEAR

RECORD DISASTERS

IT IS PAST TIME FOR A

“GLOBAL WAKE UP CALL”

UNDER-

STAND

IDENT-

IFY

HEAR

PERSON-

ALIZEACT

1990-2014

PERIOD OF

INTEGRATION NOW WINDOW OF

OPPORTUNITY

21ST

CENTURYPERIOD OF

IMPLEMEN-

TATION

A DISASTER is ---

--- the set of failures that occur when

three continuums: 1) people, 2)

community (i.e., a set of habitats,

livelihoods, and social constructs),

and 3) recurring events (e.g., floods,

earthquakes, ...,) intersect at a point in

space and time, when and where the

people and community are not ready.

WHEN AN INTERSECTION OCCURS, A

DISASTER OCCURS - - -

- - - IF THE PEOPLE AND THE COMMUNITY

ARE ASLEEP; NOT READY FOR WHAT HAPPENS

PEOPLE COMMUNITY

RECURRING

EVENTS

P

T

S

O

CP

A RIP VAN WINKLE IS NOT PREPARED TO

BE A CHAMPION OF DISASTER

RESILIENCE IN THE 21ST CENTURY

--- He slept

through the most

important 20

years of his life --

- the IDNDR

(1990-1999) AND

ISDR (2000-2014)

HE IS UNPREPARED AFTER MISSING

20 YEARS OF INNOVATION

• --- VULNERABILITY REDUCTION

• --- RISK REDUCTION

• --- PREVENTION

• --- PROVENTION

• --- MITIGATION

• --- DISASTER REDUCTION

• --- DISASTER RISK REDUCTION

• --- DISASTER RESILIENCE

BY MISSING 10,000+

OPPORTUNITIES TO LEARN

FROM THE NOTABLE EVENTS

AND DISASTERS THAT

HAPPENED DURING THE PERIOD

1990—2014,

HE IS UNPREPARED.

ARIZONA: JUNE 8, 2011

VOLCANO PUYEHUE’S ASH

CLOUD: JUNE 4, 2011

MISSISSIPPI RIVER BARGE

TRAFFIC HALTED: MAY 6

WESTERN TANZANIA: INUNDATION;

MAY 6

NEW SOUTH WALES,

AUSTRALIA: JANUARY, 2011

NORTH DAKOTA LEVEE

BREACHED:JUNE 23, 2011

TUSCALOOSA, AL: APRIL 27, 2011

SENDAI, JAPAN”BEFORE

MARCH 12TH

AFTER MARCH 12th

NOTABLE EVENTS AND DISASTERS

OF 2014

ATLANTIC BASIN

TROPICAL STORMS AND

HURRICANES

HURRICANE ARTHUR

November 30th marked the official

end of a quiet 2014 Atlantic Basin

hurricane season. There were

eight named storms, six of which

were hurricanes, with only two

(Edouard and Gonzalo) becoming

major storms; NOT SO IN THE

EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN

El Niño (cyclical surges of

warm water at the equator) • In general, meteorologists believe that

El Niño conditions suppress hurricane

activity in the Atlantic and increase it in

the Pacific.

• A new study suggests that there may

be a delayed reaction, with peak

hurricane activity in the northeastern

Pacific happening two or three years

after an El Niño peak.

PACIFIC BASIN TROPICAL

STORMS AND TYPHOONS

The 2014 season ran throughout the

entire year, although most storms

developed between May and October

2014’s STORM TRACKS

Total Storms: 22

Typhoons: 11

Super Typhoons: 8

Fatalities: 481

Damage: $8.29 billion

TYPHOON VONGFONG: 2014’S

6TH SUPER TYPHOON

CYCLONES

CYCLONE HUDHUD ARRIVED:

OCT. 12

2014: EARTHQUAKE/TSUNAMI

DISASTER OF THE YEAR

THE DISASTER OF THE YEAR

OCCURRED IN

IQUIQUE, CHILE

WHERE THE NAZCA PLATE IS

SUBDUCTING BENEATH CHILE-PERU

IQUIQUE, CHILE

EARTHQUAKE (April 1, 2014)

IQUIQUE, CHILE: FLOODING

FROM TSUNAMI WAVE RUN UP

MOUNT ONTAKE

ERUPTS AFTER 35 YEARS

OF DORMANCY

ONTAKE, ONE OF 100 ACTIVE

VOLCANOES IN JAPAN, ERUPTED A

LITTLE BEFORE NOON ON

SEPTEMBER 27, 2014

MOUNT ONTAKE: SATURDAY,

SEPTEMBER 27, 2014

LAVA FLOW—A SILENT

VOLCANIC HAZARD IN HAWAII

Thursday, October 30, 2014

Monday, November 10, 2014

LAVA FLOW MOVING AT 5 M PER

HOUR TOWARDS PAHOA

LAVA FLOW ARRIVES AND SETS FIRE

TO FIRST HOUSE

FLOOD-INDUCED

MUDSLIDE IN WASHINGTON

STATE, USA

SATURDAY, MARCH 22, 2014

LOCATION MAP

THE 2014 MUDSLIDE

• The slide, which occurred on

Saturday morning, was

triggered by heavy rainfall and

reported to be about 25 m (80

feet) deep in some parts.

THE MUDSLIDE

The 15 million cubic foot

mudslide destroyed about

50 homes

176 MISSING

14 DEAD

AS OF TUESDAY, MARCH

25

2015: IT IS PAST TIME FOR A

“GLOBAL WAKE UP CALL”

UNDER-

STAND

IDENT-

IFY

HEAR

PERSON-

ALIZEACT

1990-2014

PERIOD OF

INTEGRATION NOW WINDOW OF

OPPORTUNITY

21ST

CENTURYPERIOD OF

IMPLEMEN-

TATION

EXAMPLE OF A 21ST CENTURY’S WINDOW

OF OPPORTUNITY

• WE HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY AFTER EACH

RECORD OR NEAR-RECORD DISASTER OF

THE 21ST CENTURY TO ACCELERATE THE

RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION

PROCESS, ONE OF THE FIVE PILLARS OF

GLOBAL DISASTER RESILIENCE

STRATEGY: TAKE ADVANTAGE OF

RECOVERY/RECONSTRUCTION

• THE POLITICAL AND MEDIA SPOTLIGHT

IS ON ALL DECISIONS AND ACTIVITIES

• POLITICAL PRIORITY: RESTORATION TO

NORMAL (OR BETTER) AS QUICKLY AS

POSSIBLE

• INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE,

INSURANCE PAYOUTS, AND DONORS:

ALWAYS AVAILABLE

TYPICAL TOP PRIORTIES

1) RESTORATION OF TRANSPORTATION

INFRASTRUCTURE

2) RESTORATION OF ESSENTIAL

FACILITIES-- SCHOOLS

“VAN WINKLE BARRIERS” TO ACHIEVING

GLOBAL DISASTER RESILIENCE

• MYTH– there is a “general

public,” so one glove fits all.

• REALITY--there are many

different sectors of the public

having different motivations and

needs that require sector-

specific knowledge.

“VAN WINKLE BARRIERS” TO ACHIEVING

GLOBAL DISASTER RESILIENCE

• MYTH– people will do what they

say they will do

• REALITY—the coefficient of

correlation between what people

say and what they actually do is

VERY LOW; only legal man-

dates ensure compliance.

“VAN WINKLE BARRIERS” TO ACHIEVING

GLOBAL DISASTER RESILIENCE

• MYTH– mailing OR e-mailing a report

is communication

• REALITY—communication is an

active 2-way process involving: A

SOURCE and A RECEIVER, A

MESSAGE, and A CHANNEL

(or multiple channels) to develop

programmes with a long time line.

RECOVERY/RECON-

STRUCTION AFTER

A DISASTER

“DISASTER

RESILIENCE”

ACADEMIA

FUNCTIONAL

NETWORKING

CHANNELS

INFORMATION

NETWORKING

CHANNELS

ORGANIZATION

NETWORKING

CHANNELS

COMMUNI-

CATION

COMMUNITY STAKEHOLDERS

Stratec Consulting

“VAN WINKLE BARRIERS” TO ACHIEVING

GLOBAL DISASTER RESILIENCE

• MYTH– mailing a report or sending

an e-mail will transfer ownership of

knowledge and trigger policy

adoption

• REALITY—transfer of ownership of

knowledge is a long process:

HEARING, UNDERSTANDING, and

PERSON-ALIZING FOR ACTION.

WHAT IS THE PAYOFF OF

GLOBAL DISASTER

RESILIENCE

FAILURE: WE WILL HAVE DISASTERS

DURING THE 21ST CENTURY THAT COULD

MAKE 1990—2014’S DISASTERS LOOK

LIKE “A WALK IN THE PARK.”

SUCCESS: EVERYONE WINS