Post on 03-Jul-2020
θωερτψυιοπασδφγηϕκλζξχϖβνµθωερτψυιοπασδφγηϕκλζξχϖβνµθωερτψυιοπασδφγηϕκλζξχϖβνµθωερτψυιοπασδφγηϕκλζξχϖβνµθωερτψυιοπασδφγηϕκλζξχϖβνµθωερτψυιοπασδφγηϕκλζξχϖβνµθωερτψυιοπασδφγηϕκτψυιοπασδφγηϕκλζξχϖβνµθωερτψυιοπασδφγηϕκλζξχϖβνµθωερτψυιοπασδφγηϕκλζξχϖβνµθωερτψυιοπασδφγη
ϕκλζξχϖβνµθωερτψυιοπασδφγηϕκλζξχϖβνµθωερτψυιοπασδφγηϕκλζξχϖβνµθωερτψυιοπασδφγηϕκλζξχϖβνµθωερτψυιοπασδφγηϕκλζξχϖβνµθωερτψυιοπασδφγηϕκλζξχϖβνµθωερτψυιοπασδφγηϕκλζξχϖβνµρτψυιοπασδφγηϕκλζξχϖβνµθωερτψυιοπασδφγηϕκλζξχϖβνµθωερτψυιοπασδφγηϕκλζξχϖβνµθωερτψυιοπασδφγηϕκλζξχϖβνµθωερτψυιοπασδφγηϕκλζξχϖβνµθωερτψυιοπασδφγηϕκλζξχϖβνµθωερτψυιοπασδφγηϕκλζξχϖβνµθωερτψυιοπασδφγηϕκλζξχϖβνµθωερτψυιοπασδφγηϕκ
BostonScientificFinancialAnalysis
TableofContents
Company,IndustryandCompetitionOverview............................................................1 Exhibit1:MedicalDeviceIndustryComparison, ........................................................................................2
GrowthStrategy ..........................................................................................................2
PotentialRisks .............................................................................................................3
HistoricalAnalysis........................................................................................................4 CommonStockMarketPrice.................................................................................................................................4 Exhibit2:MarketValueof$10,000InvestmentinBSXCommonStock ...........................................4
RevenueandNetEarnings ...........................................................................................5 Exhibit3&4:Revenue&NetEarningsComparisons2002‐2006 ......................................................5 Exhibit5:BostonScientificNetEarningsLast5years..............................................................................5 Management’sGuidance.........................................................................................................................................6
RatioAnalysis ..............................................................................................................6 Exhibit6:EarningsRatios......................................................................................................................................6 Exhibit7:LiquidityRatios......................................................................................................................................7 Exhibit8:AssetManagementRatios .................................................................................................................8 Exhibit9:DebtManagementRatios ..................................................................................................................9 Exhibit10:ProfitabilityRatios.............................................................................................................................9 Exhibit11:MarketValueRatios ....................................................................................................................... 10
SustainableGrowthRate ...........................................................................................11 Exhibit12:BSXSustainableGrowthRate=2.23%.................................................................................. 11
CapitalAssetPricingModel........................................................................................12 Exhibit13:BetaversusCAPM ........................................................................................................................... 12
WeightedAverageCostofCapital ..............................................................................12 Exhibit14:WACCcomparison .......................................................................................................................... 12
UpdatedStockPrice...................................................................................................13 Exhibit15:BSXCommonStockPerformance12/31/07thru4/21/08......................................... 13
RecentNewsEvents...................................................................................................14
EstimatedSalesGrowth .............................................................................................14 Exhibit16:ThreeYearSalesGrowth ............................................................................................................. 15
ExpectedStockPrice ..................................................................................................15 ExpectedDividendsModel ................................................................................................................................. 15 FreeCashFlowApproach ................................................................................................................................... 15
ScenarioAnalysis .......................................................................................................16 Exhibit17:Probabilityofstockpricechangingin2008........................................................................ 16
CashConversionCycle ...............................................................................................17 Exhibit18:3‐YearCashConversionComparison..................................................................................... 17
Conclusion .................................................................................................................17
Recommendation ......................................................................................................17 Acquisitiontargets ................................................................................................................................................. 18 ProfitabilitySuggestions...................................................................................................................................... 18
Appendix .....................................................................................................................1 Chapter3Calculations.............................................................................................................................................1 LiquidityRatios...........................................................................................................................................................2 AssetManagementRatios ......................................................................................................................................3 DebtManagementRatios .......................................................................................................................................4 ProfitabilityRatios ....................................................................................................................................................5 MarketValueRatios..................................................................................................................................................6 SustainableGrowthRateCalculation................................................................................................................8 CAPMCalculation.......................................................................................................................................................9 WACCCalculation ......................................................................................................................................................9 CashConversionCycleCalculation ................................................................................................................. 11
1
Company,IndustryandCompetitionOverview
Boston Scientific (BSX), located in Natick, MA, is a “worldwide developer,manufacturer and marketer of less‐invasive medical devices.” The products areused inavarietyofmedical specialties. The companyoffers itsproducts in threecategories:cardiovascular,endosurgeryandneuromodulation.1
“Thecompanybeganinthelate1960’swhenthecompany’sco‐founderJohnAbele,acquired an equity interest in Medi‐tech, a development company. Their initialproductswereafamilyofsteerablecathetersusedinsomeofthefirstless‐invasiveprocedures performed, and versions of these catheters are still sold today. Thisacquisitionbeganaperiodofactive, focusedmarketing,newproductdevelopmentandorganizationalgrowth.Sincethen,thecompany‘snetsaleshaveincreasedfrom$1.8 million in 1979”2 to almost $2.8 billion as of the third quarter of 2007.3However,overthepastfewyears,thecompanyhasstagnatedinitsgrowth.
Theindustryitselfconsistsofasmallnumberofverylargecompanies;therestarequite small (generally notmore than 100 employees). There are a total of 3,391medicaldevicecompaniesworldwide4andwhencombined,theyproduceover$75billion of revenue per year (Andrews). The industry focuses on a wide range ofmedicaldevicesusedinpracticallyeveryarenaofmedicine.
BostonScientifics’keycompetitorsareMedtronicInc,St. Jude, Johnson&Johnson,and Abbot Laboratories.1 It should be noted that the revenues and number ofemployeesatJohnson&JohnsonandAbbottLaboratoriesaresplitbetweenmedicaldevices, biotechnology, pharmaceuticals and consumer products, and the exactamounts from the medical devices business are unknown. Minneapolis basedMedtronic(MDT)isthemostsuccessfulandconsideredthe largest“pure”medicaldevice company in the world, and Boston Scientific is considered the secondlargest.1
Exhibit #1, shown below, lists the top firms in the industrywith a breakdown ofrevenueandnumberofemployees.Asonecanseefromtheexhibit,Medtronichas10,000 more employees than Boston Scientific. They also brought in over fourbilliondollarsmorein2006.
1Reuters2BostonScientific200110‐k3BostonScientific200610‐k4GoogleAnswers
2
Exhibit1:MedicalDeviceIndustryComparison5,6
Company Employees Revenue Boston Scientific 28,600 $8.27B Medtronic Inc. 38,000 $12.58B Abbott Laboratories 65,000 $25.914B Johnson & Johnson 122,200 $58.82B St. Jude Medical 11,000 $3.62B
GrowthStrategy
The acquisition of Guidant Corporation in 2006 was a major event for BostonScientific.ByacquiringGuidant,amarketleaderinthetreatmentofcardiacdisease,Boston Scientific was able to enhance their position in the Cardiac RhythmManagement(CRM)market.ThisacquisitionwillenableBostonScientifictoexpandtheirproductofferingsandsupplythemwithalong‐termgrowthengine.
The Boston Scientificmanagement team is focusing their growth strategy aroundthefollowinginitiatives7:
ImprovingQualityBostonScientificcontinuesto focusontheirqualitysystems,trainingallemployeestoadheretothehigheststandardsofquality.
RegainingCardiacRhythmManagement(CRM)marketshareBostonScientificwill focus their efforts on producing remote patient management and next‐generationdefibrillatorplatforms.BostonScientific’splanneddefibrillatorproductlaunches includeVITALITYNXT,TELIGEN, andCOGNIS. Boston Scientific expectsTELIGEN and COGNIS to be the company’s flagship heart failure and tachycardiasolutionsinthefuture.
Maintaining DrugEluting Stent (DES) market leadership The DES marketcontractedin2006duetoconcernsaboutproductsleadingtoarareclotformationcausedbystent implantations.BostonScientificwasabletomaintaintheirmarketleadershippositionthroughtheDESmarketdownturn,witha54%marketshareatthecloseof2006.NewproductlaunchesincludePROMUSandTAXUS.
Controlling Costs associated with Guidant acquisition Boston Scientific willfocus on achieving their operating income and cash flow goals in 2007, whilereducing debt and managing the increased costs resulting from the Guidantacquisition.
5finance.yahoo.com6www.wikipedia.org7BostonScientific2006AnnualReport
3
Streamlining theBostonScientificoperatingmodel through leanprinciples BostonScientificwill focusonallocatingresourcestothemostimportantbusinesspriorities.
We feel that of the above strategies, the most crucial for the next few years iscontrollingcostsandreducingdebtsassociatedwiththeGuidantacquisition. Thiscouldeitherbringthecompanyupordragitdown,dependingonwhichdirectionitgoes.Assuch,thereisnomorecrucialactivityatthistimeforthecompany’slongtermfinancialhealth.Ourrecommendationsformanagementarenotedattheendofthispaper.
PotentialRisks
Boston Scientific’s diversified portfolio of product offerings opens them up toseveralpotentialmarkets,butalsoexposesthemtomanyrisks.Amongthelargestriskfactorsaretherecoveringcardiacrhythm(CRM)anddrugelutingstents(DES)markets,which experienced a decrease in demand in 2006 due to product safetyconcerns. Within these critical markets there is also a risk associated with newproductlaunches,whichrelyontimelyregulatoryapprovals.OtherriskstoBostonScientific include an inability to grow revenue in foreign markets, generatingenoughcashflowtofundoperationsandcapitalexpenditures,andmanagingcostsassociatedwiththeGuidantacquisition.3
Themedicaldeviceindustryasawholeissusceptibletoavarietyofotherrisks.Keyindustry risksoverall include the failureof theFDAorother regulatorybodies toapprove new devices, approved devices being pulled from the market for safetyreasons, and the eroding market share, which can arise in countries that fail toenforce intellectual property rights. Additionally, expired patents and potentiallawsuitsarealsothreatstotheindustry.
4
HistoricalAnalysis
CommonStockMarketPriceThe following graph illustrates the market value of a hypothetical $10,000investmentinBostonScientificcommonstockoverfiveyears,beginninginJanuary2003.Also,asimilarinvestmentinbothMedtronicandtheStandard&Poor’s500Indexisshownforcomparison.
Exhibit2:MarketValueof$10,000InvestmentinBSXCommonStock
Source:www.msn.com
Asshownabove,BostonScientific’sstockquicklydoubledinprice,hittingahighofalmost $45 per share in April 2004. Since then, it has been in a slow declining,worth roughly half of the original investment by of 2007. While net earnings in2006werenegatively impactedby theacquisitionofGuidant, it canbenoted thatWallStreethadalreadybeendownonBostonScientificforyears.Medtronic’sstockprice has beenmuchmore consistentwith the S&P, but has underperformed theindex.Neitherofthesestocksappearstohavebeenagoodinvestmentfrom2003‐2007.ThefouryearperiodwaschosenforExhibit2toincludetheupwardtrendof2003,andthenthesubsequentdeclinefrom‘04‐’07,incontrasttotherelativelyflatperformanceofMedtronicandmodestgainsoftheS&P500.
5
RevenueandNetEarnings
The following two graphs show the revenue and net earnings results for bothBostonScientificandMedtronicfromfiscalyears2002‐2006,inmillionsofdollars.
Exhibit3&4:Revenue&NetEarningsComparisons2002‐2006
Sources:www.bostonscientific.com,www.medtronic.com
As shown in Exhibit 3, both companies have increased their revenues every yearsince 2002. Boston Scientific has actually shownmore of an increase, averagingapproximately29%growthtoMedtronic’s’13%.LookingatnetearningsinExhibit4, however, both companies have been inconsistent. Boston Scientific peaked in2004andthenfellfortwoconsecutiveyears,whileMedtronichasgenerallytrendedupward except for a slight dip in 2004. 2006 was especially poor for BostonScientific as earnings were negative, which again was largely due to the Guidantacquisition.
Addingthepurchasedresearchanddevelopmentexpensefromeachyear’searningsbackintonetincomethatwouldreversetheeffectoftheone‐timeexpensesduetotheacquisition.
Exhibit5:BostonScientificNetEarningsLast5years
As you can see from Exhibit 5, 2006earnings are positive after theadjustment, although still significantlybelow2005earnings.
Source:www.bostonscientific.com
6
Management’sGuidanceBostonScientificappearstobeverystraightforwardindetailingtherisksassociatedwiththeoperationsoftheirbusiness.Theystatethattheirlong‐standingapproachto growth is by strategic acquisitions of, investments in, or alliances with othercompanies and businesses.3 Management states that while they will continue tofocus selectively on excellent opportunities, theymay not always be successful ingeneratinggrowththroughthismethod.3
Anothersignofmanagement’sopennessisthedetailtheyprovideonthesubstantialpatentandintellectualpropertyrightslitigationtheyarefacing.Whilemanagementopiniondoesnotbelieveany legalproceedingswillhaveamaterialeffectontheirfinancial condition, operations, or cash flows, the risk is present as they competewith other players with very similar medical products. For example, any legalproceedings in the heart stent market as Boston Scientific protects and defendstheir productmay impact them financially through increased legal costs, financialsettlements,orresultinlostmarketsharefrompullingtheproductfromthemarket.
Lastly,BostonScientifics’salesprojectionsarenaturallytiedtonewproductsbeingapproved by the FDA, European, and other international regulatory agencies. Inreviewing10‐kreports fromprioryears forestimatesofregulatoryapprovalsandglobal product launches, the accuracy of their forecasting ofwhen theseproductswouldimpacttherevenuesviaentranceintothemarkethasshowntobeaccurate.
RatioAnalysis
Exhibit6:EarningsRatios8
2006 2005 2004 NOWC BSX $1,801,000 $868,000 $1,420,000 MDT $3,559,000 $4,828,000 $2,991,000 TNOC BSX $3,527,000 $1,879,000 $2,290,000 MDT $5,621,000 $6,709,000 $4,850,000 NOPaT BSX ($2,201,000) $692,000 $1,108,000 MDT $2,770,000 $2,327,000 $1,845,000 FCF BSX ($3,849,000) $1,103,000 $461,000 MDT $3,858,000 $468,000 $1,484,000 ROIC BSX (62.40%) 36.83% 48.38% MDT 49.28% 34.68% 38.04% EVA BSX ($2,554,000) $504,000 $879,000
8FullcalculationscanbefoundinAppendix
7
MDT $2,208,000 $1,656,000 $1,360,000 MVA BSX $15,857,000 $19,646,000 $27,031,000 MDT $47,186,000 $48,727,000 $51,962,000
AsshowninExhibit6,almostallofBostonScientific’sratiosthat involveearningswereunimpressive for2006,primarilydue to acquisitionand restructuring costs.BostonScientific’s freecash flow(FCF)plummeted from2005‐06,whichdoesnotspeakwell to their short‐term strength. Also,while not a direct result of the netearnings figure, themarket value added (MVA) decreased due to a decline in thestockprice,whichlikelywasinfluencedbythenegativeearnings.TheonlyfiguresthathaveincreasedweretheNOWCandTNOCfigures,andagreatdealofthiswasduetothecashbalance.
While it can be argued that having more cash is better than no cash, having anunnecessarily large amount of cash means those assets are not being used togeneraterevenue.Thiscashcouldbeusedtopurchaseoneofthesmallcompaniesnotedintherecommendationssection;itcouldbeusedtopurchasenewdevices;orit couldbeused topaydowndebtquicker.This isparticularly importantbecausethey are a potential takeover target for Johnson & Johnson (Medical ProductOutsourcing,July/August2007,“1.Johnson&Johnson).Themorecashacompanyhas,themoreattractivetheyaretolargercompanies.
In general, Medtronic’s ratios have all been trending upward since 2005. Themarket value added (MVA) has shown a slight decline, but not as significant asBostonScientific. Medtronic’s freecash flow(FCF)hasshowngreat improvementfrompreviousyears. WhencomparedtoBostonScientific,Medtronicprovestobethemorevaluablecompany.
Exhibit7:LiquidityRatios8
2006 2005 2004 CR BSX 1.86 1.78 1.26 MDT 3.09 2.36 2.20 QR BSX 1.58 1.50 1.12 MDT 2.62 2.09 1.91
Forthetwoliquidityratiosnotedabove,bothcompanieshaveincreasedeachratioeveryyearsince2004/05.Bothcompanieshavemostrecentquickratiosofatleast1.5, so they should not have issues meeting short‐term obligations. Medtronic’sratios are almost double that of Boston Scientific, but both companies are wellbelowtheindustryaverageofapproximately4.Thedifferenceinbothcurrentandquick ratios, indicate that Medtronic is more liquid and financially stronger thanBostonScientific.
8
Exhibit8:AssetManagementRatios8 2006 2005 2004 ITR BSX 10.44x 15.03x 15.62x MDT 10.12x 9.59x 10.76x DSO BSX 93.67 days 62.97 days 74.05 days MDT 93.25 days 84.88 days 97.23 days FA T0 BSX 4.53x 6.21x 6.46x MDT 5.96x 6.00x 5.68x TA T0 BSX 0.25x 0.77x 0.69x MDT 0.63x 0.57x 0.64x
As noted above, the inventory turnover rate (ITR) atMedtronicwas substantiallylower than atBoston Scientific during all 3 years. Inventory turnedover a 3‐yearaverageofevery28daysatBostonScientific,whereastheinventoryturnedovera3‐yearaverageofevery36daysatMedtronic.ThislikelydemonstratesthatBostonScientific was more efficient at turning over inventory than Medtronic and as aresulttheypresumablyhadmorecashonhandtoinvestbackintothebusiness.
Boston Scientifics’ days sales outstanding (DSO) ratio was impressive whencompared to the industry average of 77 days. During this same time period,Medtronicaveragedabout20dayslongersalesoutstandingthanBostonScientific.This ishighlyundesirablebecause itdeprivedMedtronicof funds that couldhavebeen used to invest in additional assets. Ultimately, they still pulled in farmorerevenue than Boston Scientific, but receiving those funds faster may havepotentially created even more revenue. Boston Scientific could have also haveaccomplishedthisiftheywereabletobeattheindustryaveragein2006.
The fixed asset turnover ratio (FA TO) is another ratio that demonstrated anadvantage that BSX had overMDT. While the ratios are not drastically differentbetween the two companies, Boston Scientific with the exception of 2006 (whentheirattentionhadturnedtotheGuidantacquisition)seemedtousetheirproperty,plantandequipmentabitmoreefficientlythanMedtronicgiventheirlowerFATO.Inspiteofthis,MedtronicbroughtinmorerevenuethanBostonScientific.Itisstillimportanthowevertousethecompanies’fixedassetsasefficientlyaspossible. Inthisregard,BostonScientificprovedmoresuccessfulduringthelasttwoyears.
Finally, with the exception of 2006/07, Boston Scientific had a higher total assetturnoverratio(TATO)thanMedtronic.In2006BostonScientificreturnedfarlesssalesrevenueoneverydollarinvestedbecausealargevolumeofcapitalwentintothepurchaseofGuidant.Thenexttwoyearshowevertheyearnedmorerevenueonevery dollar thanMedtronic did. Thiswould indicate thatMedtronic should haveeithersoldsomeassetsorincreasedsales.
9
Exhibit9:DebtManagementRatios8
2006 2005 2004 DR BSX 50.80% 47.76% 50.73% MDT 43.74% 52.29% 37.12% TIE BSX (7.13)x 10.90x 24.34x MDT 16.42x 28.25x 47.16x EC BSX (4.35)x 10.90x 24.34x MDT 13.05x 19.07x 23.42x
Exhibit9demonstratesthatoverthe last threeyearsBostonScientific’sdebtratiohasstayedcloseto50%,despitethefactthattheirassetsincreasedby3.79timesin2006. Medtronic experienced more volatility with their debt ratio, even thoughtheir asset levels have held relatively constant. Boston Scientific’s times interestearnedratiowasnegativein2006duetotheGuidantacquisition.Thismeansthattheyarecoveringtheir interestchargesbya lowmarginofsafety. Overthe last3years, Medtronic has been in a better position to cover interest payments andservice debt as indicated by the times interest earned (TIE) andEBITA coverage(EC)ratios.
Exhibit10:ProfitabilityRatios8
2006 2005 2004 PM BSX (45.74%) 10.00% 18.88% MDT 22.78% 22.55% 17.94% BEP BSX (9.97%) 11.97% 19.07% MDT 19.18% 16.67% 15.64% ROA BSX (11.50%) 7.66% 13.00% MDT 14.36% 12.95% 10.86% ROE BSX (23.38%) 14.67% 26.39% MDT 25.53% 27.14% 17.26%
BostonScientific’sprofitabilityin2006wasdrasticallyimpactedbytheiracquisitionofGuidantCorporation.DuetothisacquisitionBostonScientifichadanetincomeofnegative $3.57billion,which in turnnegatively impacted theirprofitability ratios.Despitethe fact thatBostonScientifichadpositivenet incomepriorto2006, theirkeyprofitabilityratiostrailedthoseofindustrycompetitorMedtronic.
Asnotedabove,BostonScientifichadaprofitmarginof‐45.74%in2006duetotheGuidantacquisition,significantlydownfromtheirprofitmarginsof10.0%in2005and18.88%in2004.BostonScientificneedstobettercontroltheirexpensesinthe
10
upcomingyearinordertocompetewithMedtronic,whichpostedaprofitmarginof22.78%in2007.9
BostonScientific’sbasic earningpower (BEP) ratiowasalsodownsignificantly in2006 to ‐9.97%, compared to ratios of 11.97% in 2005 and19.07% in 2004. Thebasic earning power ratiomeasures the earnings power of assets without takingintoaccounttaxesandleverageprovingwhynegativeearningsin2006significantlydecreased Boston Scientific’s basic earning power ratio. Alternatively,Medtroniccontinues to utilize their assets efficiently with a BEP ratio of 19.18% in 2007.Boston Scientific could gain a competitive advantage if they improve this ratio byincreasinginventoryturnover.
As was the case with the other profitability ratios, Boston Scientific’s return onequity(ROE)andreturnonassets(ROA)weresignificantlyimpactedbytheGuidantacquisition. In 2004, Boston Scientific was effectively utilizing their assets andequity,postingareturnonassetsof13.0%andareturnonequity26.39%.BostonScientific must now focus on getting their ROA and ROE ratios back to historiclevels,withtotalassetsincreasingby279%andequityincreasingby257%in2006.
Exhibit11:MarketValueRatios8
2006 2005 2004 EPS BSX (2.416)x 0.764x 1.266x MDT 2.412x 2.092x 1.492x P/E BSX (8.62)x 39.27x 38.74x MDT 20.77x 24.25x 32.98x CF per share BSX (1.899)x 1.147x 1.594x MDT 2.914x 2.539x 1.875x P/CF BSX (11.03)x 26.18x 30.77x MDT 17.20x 19.98x 26.24x BVPS BSX 10.334x 5.212x 4.799x MDT 9.448x 7.708x 8.643x M/B BSX 2.02x 5.76x 10.22x MDT 5.30x 6.58x 5.69x
Giventheirmarketvalueratiosin2006,BostonScientificisgenerallyviewedpoorlyby investors. Boston Scientific increased their Shares Outstanding by 44.5% to1.48Bsharesin2006tohelpraisecapital,butthemarketdidnotreactfavorably.InfacttheBostonScientificpriceslidfromanaverageof$49.05in2004toanaverage9YearsareslightlyskewedbecauseMedtronic’sfiscalyearbeginsinAprilwhileBostonScientific’sfiscalyearbeginsinJanuary.
11
of$20.34 in2006. Medtronic’spriceper sharehasbeensteadilyhoveringat$50pershareforthelastthreeyears,whileBostonScientifichassteadilydeclined.
Asshownabove,BostonScientific’spriceearning(P/E)ratiowasaboveMedtronicby14.9% in2004/05andby38.2% in2005/06. BostonScientific’spriceearningslidecanbeattributedtoadeclineinnetincomeduetotheacquisitionofGuidant,whichraisednon‐recurringexpensesfrom$1,056Bin2005to$4,119Bin2006.
Medtronic’s cash flowper share (CF/S) consistently increases from2004 to2006,while Boston Scientific’s cash flow per share ratio is also dragged down by netincome in 2005. Boston Scientific’s cash flow per share was only 45.2% ofMedtronic’sin2005;aresultoftheirnetincomeplusdepreciationbeingon$942McomparedtoMedtronic’s$3B.
Bookvaluepershare(BVPS)showsalargeincreasefrom5.21in2005to10.33in2006 due to the $15.79B figure in Capital Surplus under Stockholder’s Equity.Investorswere confident in Boston Scientific in 2004with amarket/book (M/B)ratioof10.22but in2006 itwasdown to amultipleof2.02. This coincideswithBoston Scientific’s stock price decline. While Medtronic’s book value per shareshowsgeneralincreasesfrom2005to2006,theirmarkettobookisstableoverthelast three years, averaging 5.86. This is inline with Boston Scientific’s 3‐yearaverageof6.0despitethedropfrom2004to2006.
SustainableGrowthRate
Exhibit12:BSXSustainableGrowthRate=2.23%
Revenue (Millions)
Actual Growth Rate
2008E $8,023 -4.0%
2007 $8,357 6.9%
2006 $7,821 24.5%
2005 $6,283 11.7%
2004 $5,624 61.8%
2003 $3,476 19.1%
2002 $2,919
As the table above depicts Boston Scientific is expected to have negative salesgrowth in fiscal 2008. When a company‘s actual growth rate falls below thesustainablegrowththecompanymustfindaplacetoinvestexcessprofits;however,
12
in the case of Boston Scientific they had a loss in 2006 and 2007. Assuming thatBoston Scientific can become profitable again they should consider using excessprofits to invest in new markets, develop new product lines, issue dividends,repurchaseshares,oracquireanothercompany.
CapitalAssetPricingModel8
Exhibit13:BetaandCAPM Beta CAPM
BSX 1.14 10.89% MDT 0.19 4.71%
Although, Boston Scientific and Medtronic are competitors within the medicaldevice industry theirexposure tomarket riskdifferssignificantlyas illustratedbytheirbetascores.BostonScientificwithabetaof1.14tendstoberiskier thanthebroadmarket,whileMedtronicwithabeta0.19tendstobemuchlessriskythanthemarket.TheCAPMcalculationsfurtherillustratethatBostonScientificistheriskierinvestmentwitharequiredreturnof10.89%comparedtoMedtronic’s4.71%.
WeightedAverageCostofCapital
Exhibit14:WACCcomparison WACC
BSX 7.86% MDT10 7.65%
TheWACC calculation is ameasureof a firm’s cost of financing throughdebt andequity.WACCisusedtodeterminetherequiredrateonreturnforfinancinggrowth.11 Management uses WACC to determine if potential growth strategies justifyfinancing.BostonScientificandMedtronicbothhaveWACCnumbersbetween7.6%and 7.8%; thus, the firms’ financing costs are very similar. Boston Scientific iscurrentlyfinanced67.8%byequityand32.2%bydebt.
10UniversityofConnecticutSchoolofBusiness,April26,2008.http://investing.business.uconn.edu/Current_Managers/UG_Portfolio/MDT.pdf11Investopedia.com,April26,2008.www.investopedia.com/terms/w/wacc.asp
13
UpdatedStockPrice
Exhibit15:BSXCommonStockPerformance12/31/07thru4/21/08
Source:www.msn.com
Exhibit 13 illustrates the performance of Boston Scientific’s common stock since12/31/2007,as compared tobothMedtronicand theS&P500 Index (seeoriginalgraph,Exhibit2).Asindicated,BostonScientifichasdonemuchbetterrecentlythanthe2004‐2007period, increasingapproximately12.0%,whilebothMedtronicandtheoverallmarkethavedeclined(‐1.4%and‐5.5%respectively).
According to Standard& Poor’s, the 12month target price for BSX is $14,whichwouldbe a gainof approximately7.4%over the4/21/08 closingpriceof $13.03.The stock is classified as being “high‐risk” due to the competitive industry, itsdependence ondevelopingnewproducts for growth, and a potential reduction inMedicare reimbursement rates for expensivemedical devices. Sales for 2008 areforecastedtobe$8billion,a4%declinefrom2007.EPSisprojectedtobe$0.60for2008.12
OneissuethatcouldpotentiallyaffectBostonScientificinthenearfutureistheFoodand Drug Administration’s possible regulation of the stent industry, which hasalready been hurt recently due to safety concerns after some patients developedblood clots.13 Boston Scientific has already received a letter ofwarning from theFDA in January 2006, after multiple incidents, such as shipping devices that hadfailed inspection. Until the FDA considers the warning resolved BSX may have
12StandardandPoor’sStockReport,March28,2008.www.netadvantage.standardandpoors.com 13 USFDAProposesGuidelinesforStentManufactures,March8,2008.www.reuters.com
14
trouble getting approval for new stent products.14 Since they are dependant ondeveloping new products for revenue growth as mentioned above, BostonScientifics’ future earnings could be negatively affected if they are unable to getapprovaltobringtheirnewproductstomarket.
RecentNewsEvents15
On March 3, 2008 Boston Scientific Corporation announced the approval of itsACUITY(R) Spiral left ventricular lead for use with cardiac resynchronizationtherapydefibrillatorsandcardiacresynchronizationtherapypacemakers.
OnFebruary25,2008BostonScientificCorporationannouncedU.S.FoodandDrugAdministration (FDA) approval for three products in its Cardiac RhythmManagementbusiness.
On February 14, 2008 Boston Scientific Corporation announced that it hascompleted the sales of its Fluid Management and Venous Access businesses toAvistaCapitalPartnersfor$425millionincash.
OnFebruary4,2008BostonScientificCorporationannouncedfinancialresults forthefourthquarterandfullyearendedDecember31,2007,aswellasguidancefornetsalesandearningspershare(EPS)forthefirstquarterof2008.
OnJanuary8,2008BostonScientificcompletesthesaleoftheirCardiacSurgeryandVascularSurgerybusinessestoGetingeGroupfor$750Mcash.
EstimatedSalesGrowth
AccordingtoStandard&Poor’sandillustratedbelow,BostonScientific’s2008salesareexpectedtodecline4%from2007levelsto$8billion.16Thisweaksalesestimateisbasedonpersistingdifficultconditionsinthedefibrillatoranddrugcoatedstentmarkets. Standard & Poor’s expects increasing competition and decreasing unitprices in the stent market, as well as slowing growth rates in the defibrillatormarket.
Sabrient Investment Research also has a negative outlook on Boston Scientific’sgrowth potential. Sabrient gave Boston Scientific a growth score of 32.3, 46.9%
14FDAIssuesBostonScientificQuality‐ControlWarning.TheBostonGlobe,January28,2006.15InvestorRelations,March30,2008.www.BostonScientific.com16StandardandPoor’sStockReport,March28,2008.www.netadvantage.standardandpoors.com
15
lower than the average growth score of 60.8 for their industry group.17Furthermore, inOctober2007,BostonScientificmanagementannouncedthattheywould take steps to increase shareholder’s value in response to slowing salesgrowthrates.ThesestepsincludereducingR&Dspendingby$500millionandSG&Aby$575millionforthetwoyearperiodstartingin2008.TheBoardofDirectorsalsoapprovedtheeliminationof2,300positionsworldwidein2009.
Weexpectamarginalamountofpositivesalesgrowthin2009and2010basedonmodestimprovementsinthedefibrillatoranddrugcoatedstentmarketconditions.
Exhibit16:ThreeYearSalesGrowth
3 Years Sales Growth
2008 (4%) 2009 1% 2010 3%
ExpectedStockPrice8
ExpectedDividendsModelBostonScientificdoesnotcurrentlyissuebondsandthereisnoindicationthattheyhaveplans todosoatanypoint in thenear future. Assuming theprojectedsalesgrowthnotedaboveisaccurate,wedonotthinkitislikelythattheywillissuebondsinthenextthreeyears.
FreeCashFlowApproachBostonScientifichadafreecashflowof$1.2Bin2005,$2.2Bin2006and$1.3Bin2007.Theycurrentlydonotpaydividends.Medtronichadafreecashflowof$3.3Bin2005,$2.6Bin2006and$3.5Bin2007.Theyalsopaiddividendswhichrangedfrom$405,000in2005to$505,000in2007.BostonScientifichadanincreasingandthendecreasing freecash flow from2005to2007. Medtronic,on theotherhand,hadadecreasingandthenincreasingcashflow.
17SabrientStockReport,March30,2008.www.Sabrient.com
16
ScenarioAnalysis
Exhibit17:Probabilityofstockpricechangingin2008
Probability of BSX stock price in 2008 moving: Higher 19% Same 21% Lower 60%
(Source:NationalVentureCapitalAssociation,NVCAannualsurvey,12/17/07)
BasedontheS&Ptargetofan11%increaseinstockpriceduring2008,aswellasthepredictedEPSof11.32%,wepredict that if thestockpricemoves in thesamedirectionasanticipated, itwill increasebyarangeof11‐13%.Thisassumption isbasedonthegeneralaccuracyofS&Ptargetprices.
Ifthestockpriceistomovehigherthananticipatedin2008dueto:a)therelativesafetyofthisindustryduringarecessionb)economicconditionsimprovingandthesubsequent lack of a recession, or the existence of only a short recession, c) thecurrentcostcuttingeffortsbymanagementhavinganimpactinashorteramountoftimethaniscurrentlyanticipated,and/ord)thedefibrillatoranddrugcoatedstentmarketsimprovingmorethananticipated,wepredictthatitwillincreasebyarangeof13‐15%.Thisassumptionisbasedonthelikelihoodthatevenifthestockpricemoves higher than anticipated, it will likely to move only modestly more thanexpected.18
If the stockprice is tomove lower than expected in 2008due to: a) a drawnoutrecession,b)difficulties in thedefibrillator anddrug coated stentmarkets gettingworse than anticipated, and/or c) a lack of impact by the cost cutting measuresduring2008,weanticipatethatitwillincreaseby7‐9%.Thisassumptionisbasedon the fact that the S&P target price is assumed to have already taken thesepossibilities intoconsiderationwhensettingthecurrenttargetprice.Therefore, ifthetargetpriceisoff,itisnotanticipatedtobeoffbyasignificantmargin.
18 The Boston Globe 'As recession fears grow, Massachusetts industries hunkerdownforatough'08,'RobertWeisman,January23,2008
17
CashConversionCycle
Exhibit18:3‐YearCashConversionComparison8 2007 2006 2005 CCC BSX -247 days -282 days 24 days MDT -107 days -132 days -300 days
As one can see, themajority of the conversion cycles for each year are negative,meaning the respective company took much longer to pay for materials than itactuallysoldandcollectedpaymentforthegoodsproducedwiththesematerials.Amain reason for these figures being negative is the extraordinarily large payablebalancesthatBostonScientificandMedtronicbothcarryontheirbalancesheetsinrelation to their annual cost of goods sold; in some cases, the payable balance islarger than the costof goods sold. Also, due to thenatureof themedicaldevicesindustry, both companies have low cost of goods sold as a percentage of revenue(generallyaround25%)andhighresearch&developmentandselling,general,andadministrativecosts,ascomparedtoothermanufacturingcompanies.AcontrastingexamplewouldbeToyota,whohasapercentageofCOGSaround80%.
ConclusionThe 2006 acquisition of Guidant Corporation greatly changed the structure ofBostonScientific.BostonScientificsawitstotalassetsandequityincreasebymorethan 3.5 times, completely changing the financial makeup of the company. ForBostonScientifictoprosperinthefuturetheywillneedtoleveragethisacquisitiontobecomeamarketleaderinthemedicaldeviceindustry.
The acquisition has supplied Boston Scientific with an instant presence in theCardiacRhythmManagement (CRM)market, but theymust continue to introducenew products to maintain their market share. Boston Scientific has many newinnovative products in the pipeline that could help the company regain theirfinancialfootingandpropelthecompany’sstockpricetonewheights;however,todo this Boston Scientificwill need to control costs, grow foreignmarket revenue,andcontinuetogettimelyregulatoryapprovals.
RecommendationBostonScientifics’paltrygrowthratewastheimpetusforthemergerwithGuidant,whichseverelyaffected2006’sNetIncome.Managementchosetosellmoreequityandtakeonmorelong‐termdebttofinancegrowthviathismerger.Theyhavealsodecidedtosellafewsubunitsfor$425M,whichshouldbeappliedtoreducinglong‐term liabilities to improve financial leverage. The leadership team needs tocontinue to ride out the Guidant merger with hopes to return to a positive NetIncomeinthenextyear.BSXshouldcontinuetolookforopportunitiestosellmore
18
non‐profiting subunits and reduce its liabilities. Finally, once it regains sustainedprofitabilityitshouldrewardinvestorsbyintroducingdividends.
AcquisitiontargetsPotentialacquisitiontargetsthatmanagementmayconsiderinthefutureareInnerPulse, an implantable defibrillator device company; OlympusMedical Systems, anendoscopy device company; Arthrocare Corporation, a urological/gynecologicaldevicecompanyandConmed,abronchoscopydevicecompany.Theproductlinesatthesecompanies couldbolster thealreadystrongportfolio thecompanycurrentlyhasinthesetherapeuticareas.
Atsomepointinthefuture,BostonScientificshouldconsiderpayingdividends.Upuntilnowthecompanyhasusedexcesscashtopaydowndebts.Thishasbeenwise.Itisaparticularlyimportantfacetinthecompany’scurrentplantopayoffthedebtthatresultedfromtheGuidantacquisitionby2011.Werecommendthattheyholdoff a couple years after paying down the $9B debt to accumulate cash but thatshortlyafter2013theybegintopaydividends.Dividendpaymentsareoftenseenasa signal of financial health to the investment community and as such itwould bewise to provide this signal, especially after several years of poor financialperformance.
ProfitabilitySuggestions1. SticktothecurrentplantopaydowntheGuidantacquisitiondebtsby2011.
It is crucial to have this debt off the books as soon as possible in order togrowshareholdervalue.
2. Increase theR&Dbudgetbyapproximately10%eachyear. Theadditionalrevenue expected from the Guidant acquisition should be more thansufficient to cover those costs while simultaneously increasing the chancethattheirownengineerswilldesignfuturedevices.
3. Aggressively grow the medication coated cardiac stent and cardioverterdefibrillatorsales. Thesoonertheseproducts increasesalesthesoonertheinvestmentcommunitywillagreethatacquiringGuidantwasawisedecision.
4. Findmoresmallcompaniestopurchasesuchasthoselistedabove.ThiswillallowthecompanytoincreasefuturerevenuewhilesimultaneouslyavoidingsignificantincreasesinR&Dexpenses.
5. Findmoredevicestopurchasefromothercompanies.
6. Continuetocutexpenses. AccordingtoYahooFinance,the layoffs lastyearare already beginning to pay off as of Q1 2008. Having wisely removedemployeesfromthepayroll thecompanyshouldcontinuetoseekoutotherwaystocutcosts.Increasingthenumberofoutsourcedclinicaltrialsisonewayofcuttingcostswhileutilizingasmallerworkforce.
Appendix
Chapter3Calculations1920Net Operating Working Capital (NWOC) = Operating CA – Operating CL
BSX 2006= ($1,668,000+749,000+2,007,000) - ($2,480,000+143,000) = $1,801,000
2005= ($689,000+418,000+1,084,000) - ($1,246,000+77,000) = $868,000
2004= ($1,296,000+360,000+1,141,000) - ($1,265,000+112,000) = $1,420,000
2003= ($671,000+281,000+787,000) - ($760,000+80,000) = $899,000
MDT 2007= ($1,256,000+1,215,000+3,142,000) - ($2,054,000+0) = $3,559,000
2006= ($2,994,000+1,177,000+2,626,000) - ($1,969,000+0) = $4,828,000
2005= ($2,232,000+981,000+2,678,000) - ($2,901,000+0) = $2,991,000
2004= ($1,594,000+878,000+2,192,000) - ($1,882,000+0) = $2,781,000
Total Net Operating Capital (TNOC) = NOWC + Net Fixed Assets
BSX 2006= $1,801,000 + $1,726,000 = $3,527,000
2005= $868,000 + $1,011,000 = $1,879,000
2004= $1,420,000 + $870,000 = $2,290,000
2003= $899,000 + $744,000 = $1,643,000
MDT 2007= $3,559,000 + $2,062,000 = $5,621,000
2006= $4,828,000 + $1,881,000 = $6,709,000
2005= $2,991,000 + $1,859,000 = $4,850,000
2004= $2,781,000 + $1,708,000 = $4,489,000
19BSXfiscalyearendsonDec31st.MDTfiscalyearendsonApril27th.AllratiocomparisonsarebetweenBSXFY06/05/04andMDTFY07/06/05.20DatafromYahooFinanceunlessnoted.
2
Net Operating Profit after Taxes (NOPaT) = EBIT (1 – Tax Rate)
BSX 2006= ($3,100,000) * (1 – 29%) = ($2,201,000)
2005= $981,000 * (1 – 29%) = $692,000
2004= $1,558,000 * (1 – 29%) = $1,108,000
MDT 2007= $3,743,000 * (1 – 26%) = $2,770,000
2006= $3,277,000 * (1 – 29%) = $2,327,000
2005= $2,599,000 * (1 – 29%) = $1,845,000
Free Cash Flow (FCF) = NOPaT – Net Investment in Operating Capital
BSX 2006= ($2,201,000) - ($3,527,000-1,879,000) = ($3,849,000)
2005= $692,000 - ($1,879,000-2,290,000) = $1,103,000
2004= $1,108,000 - ($2,290,000-1,643,000) = $461,000
MDT 2007= $2,770,000 - ($5,621,000-6,709,000) = $3,858,000
2006= $2,327,000 - ($6,709,000-4,850,000) = $468,000
2005= $1,845,000 - ($4,850,000-4,489,000) = $1,484,000
LiquidityRatiosCurrent Ratio (CR) = Current Assets / Current Liabilities
BSX 2006= $4,901,000 / $2,630,000 = 1.86
2005= $2,631,000 / $1,479,000 = 1.78
2004= $3,289,000 / $2,605,000 = 1.26
MDT 2007= $7,918,000 / $2,563,000 = 3.09
2006= $10,377,000 / $4,406,000 = 2.36
2005= $7,422,000 / $3,380,000 = 2.20
3
Quick Ratio (QR) = (Current Assets – Inventory) / Current Liabilities
BSX 2006= ($4,901,000-749,000) / $2,630,000 = 1.58
2005= ($2,631,000-418,000) / $1,479,000 = 1.50
2004= ($3,289,000-360,000) / $2,605,000 = 1.12
MDT 2007= ($7,918,000-1,215,000) / $2,563,000 = 2.62
2006= ($10,377,000-1,177,000) / $4,406,000 = 2.09
2005= ($7,422,000-981,000) / $3,380,000 = 1.91
AssetManagementRatiosInventory Turnover ratio (ITR) = Sales/Inventory
BSX 2006= $7,821,000 / 749,000 = 10.44x
2005= $6,283,000 / 418,000 = 15.03x
2004= $5,624,000 / 360,000 = 15.62x
MDT 2007= 12,299,000 / 1,215,000 = 10.12x
2006= $11,292,000 / 1,176,900 = 9.59x
2005= $10,555,000 / 981,400 = 10.76x
Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) = Receivables/Average/Sales per day
BSX 2006= $2,007,000 / $7,821,000/365=$21,427 = 93.67 days
2005= $1,084,000 / $6,283,000/365=$17,214 = 62.97 days
2004= $1,141,000 / $5,624,000/365=$15,408 = 74.05 days
MDT 2007= $3,142,000 $12,299,000/365=$33,696 = 93.25 days
2006= $2,625,800 / $11,292,000/365= $30,937 = 84.88 days
4
2005= $2,678,300 / $10,054,600/365=$27,547
= 97.23 days
Fixed Asset Turnover Ration (FA T0) = Sales/Net Fixed Assets
BSX 2006= $7,821,000 / $1,726,000 = 4.53x
2005= $6,283,000 / $1,011,000 = 6.21x
2004= $5,624,000 / $870,000 = 6.46x
MDT 2007= $12,299,000 / $2,062,000 = 5.96x
2006= $11,292,000 / $1,881,100 = 6.00x
2005= $10,555,000 / $1,859,300 = 5.68x
Total Asset Turnover Ratio = (FA T0) = Sales/Total Assets
BSX 2006= $7,821,000 / $31,096,000 = 0.25x
2005= $6,283,000 / $8,196,000 = 0.77x
2004= $5,624,000 / $8,170,000 = 0.69x
MDT 2007= $12,299,000 / $19,512,000 = 0.63x
2006= $11,292,000 / $19,664,800 = 0.57x
2005= $10,555,000 / $16,617,400 = 0.64x
DebtManagementRatios
Debt Ratio= Total Liabilities/ Total Assets
BSX 2006= $15,798,000 / $31,096,000 = 50.8% 2005= $3,914,000 / $8,196,000 = 47.8% 2004= $4,145,000 / $8,170,000 = 50.7% Times Interest Earned Ration (TIE) = EBIT/ Interest Expense
5
BSX 2006= ($3,100,000) / $435,000 = (7.1) x 2005= $981,000 / $90,000 = 10.9 x 2004= $1,558,000 / $64,000 = 24.3 x
EBITDA Coverage Ratio (EC)=
(EBIT +Depr & Amort + Lease pmts) /
(interest expense + lease pmts+ Loan pmts)
$341,000 + $63,000 /
BSX 2006= ($3,100,000) + $275,000 + $50,000 / $435,000 + $80,000 + 0 = (4.35) x
2005= $981,000 + $583,000 + $112,000 / $90,000 + $63,000 + 0 = 9.05 x
2004= $1,558,000 + $543,600 + $89,000 / $64,000 + $50,000 + 0 = 16.52 x
MDT 2007= $3,743,000 + $463,300 + $79,000 / $228,000 + $112,000 + 0 = 13.05 x
2006= $3,277,300 + $543,600 + $89,000 / $116,000 + $89,000 + 0 = 19.07 x
2005= $2,598,600 + $463,300 + $79,000 / $55,100 + $79,000 + 0 = 23.42 x
ProfitabilityRatiosProfit Margin on Sales (PM) = Net Income/ Sales
BSX 2006= ($3,577,000) / $7,821,000 = (45.74%)
2005= $628,000 / $6,283,000 = 10.00%
2004= $1,062,000 / $5,624,000 = 18.88%
MDT 2007= $2,802,000 / $12,299,000 = 22.78%
2006= $2,546,700 / $11,292,000 = 22.55%
2005= $1,803,900 / $10,054,600 = 17.94%
Basic Earnings Power (BEP) = EBIT/ Total Assets
BSX 2006= ($3,100,000) / $31,096,000 = (9.97%)
2005= $981,000 / $8,196,000 = 11.97%
2004= $1,558,000 / $8,170,000 = 19.07%
6
MDT 2007= $3,743,000 / $19,512,000 = 19.18%
2006= $3,277,300 / $19,664,800 = 16.67%
2005= $2,598,600 / $16,617,400 = 15.64%
Return on Assets (ROA) = Net Income/ Total Assets
BSX 2006= ($3,577,000) / $31,096,000 = (11.50%)
2005= $628,000 / $8,196,000 = 7.66%
2004= $1,062,000 / $8,170,000 = 13.00%
MDT 2007= $2,802,000 / $19,512,000 = 14.36%
2006= $2,546,700 / $19,664,800 = 12.95%
2005= $1,803,900 / $16,617,400 = 10.86%
Return on Equity (ROE) = Net Income/ Common Equity
BSX 2006= ($3,577,000) / $15,298,000 = (23.38%)
2005= $628,000 / $4,282,000 = 14.67%
2004= $1,062,000 / $4,025,000 = 26.39%
MDT 2007= $2,802,000 / $10,977,000 = 25.53%
2006= $2,546,700 / $9,382,500 = 27.14%
2005= $1,803,900 / $10,449,500 = 17.26%
MarketValueRatiosMarket Value Ratios
Earnings Per Share (EPS) = Net Income21 / Shares outstanding
21NetIncomecalculationusesNetReceivables
7
BSX 2006= ($3,577,000) / 1,480,340 = (2.416)x
2005= $628,000 / 821,567 = 0.764x
2004= $1,062,000 / 838,757 = 1.266x
MDT 2007= $2,802,000 / 1,161,800 = 2.412x
2006= $2,546,700 / 1,217,300 = 2.092x
2005= $1,803,900 / 1,209,000 = 1.492x
Price/Earnings (P/E) = Mkt. Price Per Share22 / EPS
BSX 2006= 20.335 / (2.416) = (8.62)x
2005= 30.020 / 0.764 = 39.27x
2004= 49.05 / 1.266 = 38.74x
MDT 2007= 50.1 / 2.412 = 20.77x
2006= 50.730 / 2.092 = 24.25x
2005= 49.22 / 1.492 = 32.98x
CF per share = (Net Income1+Depr.) / Shares Outstanding
BSX 2006= ($2,796,000) / 1,480,340 = (1.889)x
2005= $942,000 / 821,567 = 1.147x
2004= $1,337,000 / 838,757 = 1.594x
MDT 2007= $3,385,000 / 1,161,800 = 2.914x
2006= $3,090,300 / 1,217,300 = 2.539x
2005= $2,267,200 / 1,209,000 = 1.875x
Price/Cash Flow (P/CF) = Mkt. Price Per Price2 / CF per Share
22Mkt.PriceperSharecalculatedbyusingaverageoftheclosingpricesonfirst&lastdayofthefiscalcycle
8
BSX 2006= 20.335 / (1.899) = (11.03)x
2005= 30.020 / 1.147 = 26.18x
2004= 49.045 / 1.594 = 30.77x
MDT 2007= 50.1 / 2.914 = 17.20x
2006= 50.730 / 2.539 = 19.98x
2005= 49.215 / 1.875 = 26.24x
Book Value Per Share (BVPS) = Com. Equity / Shares Outstanding
BSX 2006= $15,298,000 / 1,480,340 = 10.334x
2005= $4,282,000 / 821,567 = 5.212x
2004= $4,025,000 / 838,757 = 4.799x
MDT 2007= $10,977,000 / 1,161,800 = 9.448x
2006= $9,382,500 / 1,217,300 = 7.708x
2005= $10,449,500 / 1,209,000 = 8.643x
SustainableGrowthRateCalculationBSX2006PayoutRatio=RetentionRate&PayoutRatio=DividendsPaid/NetIncome
=50423/84524=0.5964or465/845=0.5503
BSX2006RetentionRate=0.4036
1.ROE
ROE2006=84524/15,298=0.0552
g*=RxROE2006
=0.4036x0.0552=0.0223=2.23%
2.ROA
ROA2006=84524/31,096=0.0272
23BSX does not pay Dividends. BSX’s ’06 diluted Normalized EPS was 0.43. Their main competitor, MDT, had a Dividend per Share of 0.44 on 1,143.41 shares outstanding in ‘07. 24 Since BSX’s Net Income was -3,577 in ’06, I will use an average of their Net Income in ’05 - $628M and ’04 - $1,062M.
9
BSX2006EquityMultiplier=31,096/15,298=2.0327
g*=Rx(EquityMultiplier)xROA
=0.4036x2.0327x0.0272=0.0223=2.23%
CAPMCalculationCAPM=rf+β(rm–rf)
where, rf=theriskfreerate
rm=thereturnonthemarket
(rm–rf)=isthemarketriskpremium
β=isameasureofmarketrisk
rf=3.48%(10yearnote)25
Beta26=BSX1.14,MDT0.19
(rm–rf)=6.5%27
BSXCAPM=3.48%+(1.14)(6.5%)
BSXCAPM=10.89%
MDTCAPM=3.48%+(0.19)(6.5%)
MDTCAPM=4.715%
WACCCalculationWACC=wdrd(1‐T)+wpsrps+wcers
rd=costofdebt
S&P,Fitch,&Moody’sRating=BB+/Ba1(non‐investmentgrade)
rd=7.5878%28
25Current10‐yearTreasurybondpriceavailableviahttp://finance.google.com26BSXbetavalueonhttp://finance.google.com27Highestvalueinthe5%‐6.5%rangebecauseofcurrentinvestorsriskaversion28 Comparable Ba1/BB+ bond listed at https://www.bonddesk.com with couponrateof7.25,maturity03/15/2018,price960.25
10
.075878(1–T)=.075878(1‐.2929)=5.39%
rps=preferredstock
nopreferredstock
rs=commonequity
CAPM
rs=rRF+(RPM)bi=3.48%30+(6.5%31)1.1432=10.89%
DCF
rs=D1/P0+g=0.4433/12.60+2.15%34=0.0564=5.64%
BondYield+RP
rs=rd+RP=7.5878%+3%35=10.5878%
Vce=$12.60(1.49B)=$18.774B
Vps=0
Vd=$8.902B36
Total=$27.6760B
Wce=18.774/27.6760=0.6783
Wd=8.902/27.6760=0.3217
WACC=wdrd(1‐T)+wcers
WACC=0.3217(0.0539)+0.6783(0.090393)=7.865%29Taxrateisanaverageoftwopriorpositivenet‐incomesyearssince2006hadnegativenet‐incomethusaratherlowtax‐rateof1.2%30Current10‐yearTreasurybondpriceavailableviahttp://finance.google.com31Highestvalueinthe5%‐6.5%rangebecauseofcurrentinvestorsriskaversion32BSXbetavalueonhttp://finance.google.com33BSXdoesnotpayDividends.BSX’s’06dilutedNormalizedEPSwas0.43.Theirmaincompetitor,MDT,hadaDividendperShareof0.44on1,143.41sharesoutstandingin‘07.34EPS(MRQ)vsQtr.1Yr.Agogrowthratefromhttp://stocks.us.reuters.com/stocks/ratios.asp?rpc=66&symbol=BSX35Lowervalueofthe3%‐5%rangeduetocurrentmarketconditions36BSXTotalDebtasof12‐31‐2006fromhttp://finance.google.com/finance?fstype=bi&q=NYSE:BSX
Method Estimate CAPM 10.89% DCF 5.64% Bond Yield + RP 10.5878% Average rs = 9.0393%
11
ThompsonOneWACC=8.45%
ExpectedStockPriceCalculation
EPSExpectedlongtermEPSgrowthis11.32%,providingastockpriceof$14.04bytheendof2008perYahooFinance.
FCFThe expected stock price by the end of 2008 as valued by Free Cash Flow is$14.14perthefollowingequation:
FCF=Cashfromoperations–capitalexpenditures(Dec2007)perYahooFinance
=$934M‐($363M)=$934M+$363M=$1,297M
V=FCF(1+g)=$1,297M(1+(.04))=$1,297M(.96)=$1245M=
$31,125M
WACC‐g .07865‐(.04).04 .04
$31,125M‐($256M(debt)+$0preferredstock)=$30869 1449M(outstandingshares)=$21.30
MM Market multiples: P/E ratio. The current stock price is $12.64(4/23/08)/11.32 (EPS) = 1.12, 1.12 x $12.64 = $14.16
Theexpectedstockpricebytheendof2008asvaluedbymarketmultiplesis$14.16.
CashConversionCycleCalculationInventoryConversionPeriod=Inventory /(Sales/Days)
ICPBSX2005=418,000/6,283,000/365=18.2566
ICPBSX2006=749,000/7,821,000/365=34.9552
ICPBSX2007=1,824,000/8,357,000/ 365=79.6650
ICPMDT2005=981,400/10,054,600/ 365=35.6266
ICPMDT2006=1,176,900/11,292,000/365=38.0418
ICPMDT2007=1,215,000/12,299,000/365=36.0578
ReceivablesCollectionPeriod =Receivables/(Sales/Days)
12
RCPBSX2005=1,084,000/6,283,000/365=62.9731
RCPBSX2006=2,007,000/7,821,000/365=93.6651
RCPBSX2007=2,181,000/8,357,000/365=95.2573
RCPMDT2005=2,678,300/ 10,054,600/365=97.2271
RCPMDT2006=2,625,800/ 11,292,000/365=84.8758
RCPMDT2007=3,142,000/ 12,299,000/365=93.2458
PayablesDeferralPeriod=Payables/(Purchases /Days)
PDPBSX2005=1,246,000/1,386,000 /365=328.1313
PDPBSX2006=2,480,000/2,207,000 /365=410.1495
PDPBSX2007=969,000/2,342,000/365=151.0184
PDPMDT2005=2,901,400/2,446,400 /365=432.8855
PDPMDT2006=1,969,000/2,815,300 /365=255.2783
PDPMDT2007=2,054,000/3,168,000 /365=236.6509
CashConversionCycle=ICP +RCP‐PDP
CCCBSX2005=18.2566+62.9731‐328.1313= (246.90)
CCCBSX2006=34.9552+93.6651‐410.1495= (281.53)
CCCBSX2007=79.6650+95.2573‐151.0184= 23.90
CCCMDT2005=35.6266+97.2271‐432.8855=(300.03)
CCCMDT2006=38.0418+84.8758‐255.2783=(132.36)
13
CCCMDT2007=36.0578+93.2458‐236.6509=(107.35)