Evolution of M&E from TDA/SAP to Current Country Strategies: A Science and Policy

Perspective

Laurence Mee

The challenge is how to determine whether or not our actions will bring about sustainable improvements in the state of the environment … and how cost-effective they are.

Contents of this talk

• Delivering the ecosystem approach: adaptive management and the TDA/SAP process

• Scientific challenges and uncertainties for nutrient reduction

• From outputs to outcomes, how do we measure success?

1. Delivering the ecosystem approach: adaptive management

and the TDA/SAP process

The ecosystem approach (a.k.a. Ecosystem Based Management)

The comprehensive integrated management of human activities based on best available scientific knowledge about the ecosystem and its dynamics, in order to take action on influences which are critical to the health of marine ecosystems, thereby achieving sustainable use of ecosystem goods and services and maintenance of ecosystem integrity

[EU-Marine Strategy, 2005]

Key social and ecological system properties

• Boundaries (defined in space and time – may be variable)

• Complexity, non-linearity and uncertainty• Resilience (the amount of change that a system can

undergo and still retain the same controls on function and structure, its capability for self organisation and its capacity for learning and adaptation)

• Discontinuities and thresholds• Interconnectedness

Adaptive Management

Periodic assessment (TDA)• System boundaries (space and time)• Scoping of environmental & social impacts• Research on causality• Review of institutions, laws, policies,

economic instruments

Robust, quantitative, Environmental state indicators to measure levels of impact

Studies of initial conditions

Regulations and complianceStatus and trendsF

ast

feed

bac

k lo

op

Short-term targets

(Typically valid 5 yrs)

EcoQOs(typically valid for 1

decade)

Regular monitoring (all indicators)

Stress reduction and process indicators to measure socio-economic drivers, pressures and project performance

Slo

w

feed

bac

k lo

op Eco/WR QOs

(Typically valid for 1 decade)

PRESSUREMeans by which at least one Driver causes or contributes

to a change in State.

DRIVERActivity or process

intended to enhance human welfare.

IMPACTA change in human

welfare attributable to a change in State.

STATEAttribute(s) of the

natural environment that reflect its

integrity as regards a specified issue.

External Variability

RESPONSEAn initiative intended to reduce at least one

Impact.

HUMAN DOMAIN ECOSYSTEMS

A Systems Approach

The Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis (TDA)

• Is recommended for most OP8 and OP9 projects

• Is a scientific and technical fact-finding analysis

• It should be an objective assessment and not a negotiated document

• It acts as a diagnostic tool for measuring the effectiveness of SAP implementation

Strategic Action Programme (SAP)

• A SAP is a negotiated policy document

• It establishes clear priorities for action to resolve the priority transboundary waters problems

• It identifies policy, legal and institutional reforms and investments needed to address the priority transboundary waters problems

• The preparation of a SAP is a cooperative process among key stakeholders in the countries of the region.

How long to achieve environmental outcomes?

2. Scientific challenges and

uncertainties for nutrient reduction

Nutrients are transferred by complex processes

Nitrogen pathways, Wade et al., 2002

Forsman et al., 2003

Runoff depends on multiple factors including:

Fixed:

•Morphology

•Soil type

•Aquifer hydrology

•River length and flow

Variable: (unmanageable)

•Rainfall

Variable (manageable)

•Fertiliser application rate

•Crop (and/or grazing) type

•Farm management

•Waste disposal

•River and wetland alterations

•Non-agricultural sources

•Urbanisation

Garnier et al., 2002

e.g. RIVER STRAHLER, Billen & Garnier, 2000

Several alternative models for nutrient transfer

Processes and nutrient budgets on the Black Sea shelf

Strength and diversity of trophic linkages related to ‘value’ and ‘status

Consequences to the Black Sea

Application of indicators: Eutrophication

System indicators

• Benthic mass mortality

• Pelagic/demersal fish catch

• Benthic hypoxia

• Trophic Transfer efficiency

• Fodder/non-fodder zooplankton

• Diatoms/non-diatoms

• Chlorophyll (satellite)

• Ratio of new/regenerated nutrients

• Winter nutrient stock

• Land-based discharge loads

Complexity

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Our ability to measure success depends on being able to measure

change

0

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BB BP BS DS GF GR KA

Sub-basin of Baltic Sea

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C riverine & coast

P riverine & coast

C atmospheric

P atmospheric

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1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

dep

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(m

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Baltic Proper

south-western Baltic

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1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Bio

mas

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Baltic Sea (average)

Bothnian Bay

Bothnian Sea

Baltic Proper

Pristine (P) and Contemporary (C) Phosphate levels

Eelgrass

Zoobenthos

Source: ELME 2005

Huge uncertainties in historical nutrient data in the Danube-Black Sea

3. From outputs to outcomes, how do

we measure success?

Outcomes of economic collapse in the Danube - Black Sea

1979 2002

Shading of Zernov’s Phyllophora field

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1989

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49DN, 15m

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1989

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1989

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Year class

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1989

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45ZB, 25m

Decreasing mussel mortality = recovery

Data from Shurova (unpublished)

Areas where change influencing eutrophication will be expected

Change Influence Depends on…

1. Diffuse nutrient supply

Particularly on the supply of nitrogen (but also phosphorus)

Agricultural development pattern. Implementation of the CFP. Biofuels

2. Point sources of nutrients

Supply of phosphorus (also nitrogen)

Sewerage and waste water treatment. Intensive livestock

3. Fishing pressure Trophic cascading. Overfishing will not allow system recovery

Development of effective fisheries convention and marine protected areas

1. & 2. Nutrient ratios

Blooms of undesirable species

Sensible balance between policies

Specific targets for eutrophicationSpecific targets for eutrophication

Long term objective (EcoQO)

“to take measures to reduce the loads of nutrients and hazardous substances discharged to such levels necessary to permit Black Sea ecosystems to recover to conditions similar to those observed in the 1960s”

First operational target

“urgent measures should be taken in the wider Black Sea Basin in order to avoid that the loads of nutrients and hazardous substances discharged into the Seas exceed those that existed in the mid 1990s (these discharges are only incompletely known)”

Memorandum of Understanding between the International Commission for the Protection of the Black Sea (ICPBS) and the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) on common strategic goals. Signed in Brussels, 26 November 2001.

Environmental Quality as a concept reflects human values

Target values related to freshwater quality that meets with the definition under class I (sustaining the ecological function) of UN/ECE

Our country's environmental problems can be solved without any international agreements

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0

TOTAL

Bulgaria [1997]

Romania [1998]

Russian Federation [1995]

Turkey [1996]

Ukraine [1996]

%

Strongly disagree

Disagree

Agree

Strongly agree

Peoples values matter…

Source of data: World Survey of Values, 2006

The Achilles Heel of Adaptive Management

Periodic assessment (TDA)• System boundaries (space and time)• Scoping of environmental & social impacts• Research on causality• Review of institutions, laws, policies,

economic instruments

Robust, quantitative, Environmental state indicators to measure levels of impact

Studies of initial conditions

Regulations and complianceStatus and trendsF

ast

feed

bac

k lo

op

Short-term targets

(Typically valid 5 yrs)

EcoQOs(typically valid for 1

decade)

Regular monitoring (all indicators)

Stress reduction and process indicators to measure socio-economic drivers, pressures and project performance

Slo

w

feed

bac

k lo

op Eco/WR QOs

(Typically valid for 1 decade)

How do we know when we reach institutional sustainability?

Two tests for project success

1. The regular and fully transparent provision of relevant, quality assured, monitoring data

Data gap Commitment gap

Institutional sustainability

Reasons given for not implementing monitoring

Legitimate (GEF can help with foundational support)•Lack of planning and networking•Insufficient training•Inadequate capital equipment

Non-legitimate•Institutional fragmentation•Information = Power (?)•Long term commitment to monitoring is politically unattractive•Disputed data property rights•Culture of secrecy

Test 2. How much reduction of nutrients can be achieved per unit cost?

•Complex issue requiring trade-offs and genuine international cooperation.

•Best practice solutions may not be replicable from country to country.

•Achieving sustainability is not the same as dividing investment financing equally between countries