Post on 11-Jan-2016
description
Estimated Smoldering Potential (ESP) : a decision support tool for smoldering in organic soils
Jim Reardon, RMRS Fire Science Lab, Missoula, MT
Gary Curcio, IPA Fire Environment Consultants, LaGrange, NC
Smoldering Limits of OrganicMaterials
The curve expresses the estimated probability of sustained smoldering in muck soil in relation to moisture content. Open circles represent unburned samples and filled circles
represent burned samples Increasing probability (0 to 1) represents an increased likelihood of sustained smoldering in muck soil.
0 100 200 300 4000.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Est
. Pro
babi
lity
of S
mol
deri
ng
Moisture Content(%)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0
200
400
600
800
Pro
bab
ilit
yK
BD
I
Root Mat15 cm30 cm
Figure 11. Pocosin Lakes NWR 2005 - 2007 , KBDI values (a) and root mat and 30 cmsoil depth estimated smoldering probabilities (b)
a
b
Aug/2004
Dec/2004
Apr/2005
Aug/2005
Dec/2005
Apr/2006
Aug/2006
Dec/2006
Apr/2007
Aug/2007
Dec/2007
Apr/2008
Aug/2008
Dec/2008
Apr/2009
Aug/2009
DATE
0
100
200
300
400
500
Aug/2004
Dec/2004
Apr/2005
Aug/2005
Dec/2005
Apr/2006
Aug/2006
Dec/2006
Apr/2007
Aug/2007
Dec/2007
Apr/2008
Aug/2008
Dec/2008
Apr/2009
Aug/2009
DATE
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Soil Depth 0-6
Soil Depth 0-12
So
il M
ois
ture
(%
)Es
timate
d Sm
older
ing P
otent
ial
Soil Moisture 0-6
Soil Moisture 0-12
DATE
270
320
370
420
470
-30
-24
-18
-12
-6
0
DATE
0
10
20
30
40
50
60