Post on 01-Aug-2020
Energy in a Changing World
Roger Taylor
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Major DOE National Laboratories
Brookhaven
Pacific Northwest
Lawrence Berkeley
Lawrence Livermore
INEL
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Los Alamos
Sandia
Argonne
Oak Ridge
Defense Program Labs Office of Science Labs Energy Efficiency and
Renewable Energy Lab Environmental Management Lab Fossil Energy Lab
NETL
Major NREL Technology ThrustsSupply Side
Wind Energy
Solar Photovoltaics
Concentrating Solar
Power
Solar Buildings
Biomass Power
Biofuels
Geothermal Energy
Hydrogen
Superconductivity
Distributed Power
Demand SideHybrid VehiclesFuels UtilizationBuildings Energy
Technology
Federal EnergyManagement
Advanced Industrial Technologies
Cross CuttingBasic Energy ScienceAnalytical StudiesInternational ProgramsTribal Energy Program
Energy(Heat, Electricity & Fuel)
Environment(Air & Water)
Agriculture(Food)
HumanNeeds
We Live in a Changing World
Where Carbon Reduction is a Requirement
2005 Warmest Year on Record
Source: J. Hansen, Goddard
Warming of 0.2°C/decade over last 30 years
Where U.S. Energy Consumption Continues to Grow
1850-2000
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990
Qua
drill
ion
BTU
s
Source: 1850-1949, Energy Perspectives: A Presentation of Major Energy and Energy-Related Data, U.S. Department of the Interior, 1975; 1950-2000, Annual Energy Review 2000, Table 1.3.
Coal
Crude Oil
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Non-hydro Renewables
WoodImports
Coal
Where the global economy is very complex
After: Charles Hall, SUNY Syracuse, ASPO 2005
Resource ProcessingExploitationRaw Materials Manufacturing Consumption
And it’s largely dependent on cheap oil.
Waste Heat
Increasingly volatile, increasingly upward
~$60/bbl
10/17/06
~$77/bbl
~$95/bbl
After a decade of low prices, natural gas prices are now more volatile at a higher level.
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
$9
Jan-76Jan-78
Jan-80Jan-82
Jan-84Jan-86
Jan-88Jan-90
Jan-92Jan-94
Jan-96Jan-98
Jan-00Jan-02
Jan-04
Price
($/M
MBtu
)
Monthly price (real 2003 dollars)
Monthly price (nominal dollars) Futures strip (from Nov. 5, 2003)
~$15MMBTUHenryHub
~$8.00MMBTU
2/7/06
US Lower 48 Oil Discovery & ProductionUS Lower 48: annual oil "mean" discovery &
production with Hubbert discovery model
0
1
2
3
4
5
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
year
discovery smooth 5 yrmodel Hubbert disc.productionHubbert disc. shift 35 yr
deepwater
Jean Laherrère Jan. 2003
depression
oil price
proration
20081930 2050
10000 kb/d
0 kb/d
5000 kb/d
Lower 48 Alaska Deepwater
U.S. Oil Production
Big, New Discoveries &
New ‘Technology’
...only shift the curve
Lower 48
AK
DW
Source: Tom Petrie at Denver World Oil Conference
Total U.S.Oil Production
1930
1970 2000 2050
2008
The Age of Oil
Peak Oil Graph from: ASPO.com - Colin Campbell 2004
21001930 1970 2000 2050
Our Generation20
80
The Age of Oil
Our Parents
Our Children
Our Grand Children
Our Great Grand Children
Our Grand Parents
7 Generations SpanOur Great Grand Parents
Source: The Oil Drum
$113
Earth Policy Institute from USDA & DOE data
~75% Petroleum (assuming electric Irrigation)
Center for Sustainable Systems, University of Michigan, 2000
~10% of Total U.S. Energy
Pineapples to Des Moines
By sea from Costa Rica0.3 gallons
By air from Hawaii2.8 gallons
Iowa State University, Sierra
Three Great Challenges of the 21st Century
Energy, Climate, Food
The Perfect Storm
SS Global Economy
It’s time to change direction
Renewable Resource Options
Geothermal
Biomass
Solar
Hydro
Wind
Power
Direct Use
PV - Remote Homes
Direct Use
Process Heat Buildings
Stock Watering
Big Wind
Small Wind
Small Hydro
Small Modular Power
Diesel HybridsPower
Direct Use
PV - Remote Homes
Direct Use
Process Heat Buildings
Stock Watering
Renewable Technology Options
Building Design
Energy Efficiency
Wind Turbine Sizes and Applications
Small (≤10 kW)HomesFarmsRemote Applications
(e.g. water pumping, telecom sites, icemaking)
Intermediate(10-250 kW)Village PowerHybrid SystemsDistributed Power
Large (250 kW – 2+ MW)Central Station Wind FarmsDistributed Power
Icepag
Biomass & Bioenergy Flows
Process Residuesblack liquor
sawdustbark
Bioenergystalks & strawsharvest residuesforest slashforest harvest for energyplantations
EnergyServices
heatCHPelectricity
Biomass
pulppaperlumberplywoodcotton
Materials
ConsumersMSW clean fractionyard trimmingsconstr. & demolitionwoodnon-recyclable
organics
Crops, Animals
Process Residuesdung
bagasse
charcoalbiogasethanolBiofuels
Food
Fiber
Solar Options
Geothermal Options
Small Hydro Power
http://hydropower.inl.gov/prospector/
$/MBTU
50
40
30
20
10
0Propane
27 ~ $2/gal
75 ~ $5.50/gal
#2 Oil
20 ~ $2.50/gal
65 ~ $8.00/gal
NG
7
30
Resistance
Electric
25 ~ $0.07/kWh
150 ~ $0.50/kWh
7
40HeatPump
Energy Price Comparison
Renewables
20
7
Some Challenging Questions:
•Where have we come from, and where are we going?•What can we learn from the past?•How do we shift from individualism to partnerships?•How do we improve communication and coordination?•How do we shift from modernism (new, bigger, faster) to community?•How do we reduce consumption and produce locally?•Civilizations are built on surplus. How do we shift from surplus to enough?•A goal of communities is to provide and protect.
•How do we move to more local production?•How do we shorten the supply chains?•How do we move from fuel to food?
•How do we develop our local sources of energy?•Heat, power, liquid fuels at a community scale, vs. commercial scale•What are our local opportunities for energy efficiency and renewables?
•How do we plan for contraction and avoid collapse?
Tribal Energy Security & Sovereignty Through Local Self-Sufficiency
EconomicDependence
Oil ImportsFuel at the Pump
National GridCoal-based PowerWater Transport
Foreign ManufacturingAgro-Industry
“He who has the gold, makes the rules.”
CommunityIndependence
Self sufficiencyFood
Energy Water
Skill RebuildingLocal Production
Regional Sourcing
Sufficiency & EnoughnessHuman Satisfaction
“Community of Cooperation”
Legal Tribal Council
Community Champio
nOr Team
Financing Power Markets
Community Energy Use & Growth
Sovereignty,Codes &
Standards,Contracts, Legal
Authority
On-Site Energy Displacement,
Merchant Power Sales,“Green Tag” Sales
Residential, Commercial, Industrial Loads
Local Resources,Federal Grants,
“Green Tag” SalesPartnerships
Strategic Plan
Projects
Environment
Earth, Air, Water, Parks, Open
Space, Wildlife & Plants
Energy Resources,Technology Options
Technology
The Community Energy Development ChallengeGeneral Council