Post on 22-Mar-2020
EMPLOYMENT FORECASTNOVEMBER 2012 EDITION
MYCAREER EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
MYCAREER EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
CONTENTS
02 Introduction
03 Australia
04 NewSouthWales
05 Victoria
06 Queensland
07 WesternAustralia
08 SouthAustralia
09 FullTime&PartTimeJobs
10 AustraliaProfessional/Managers
11 NSWProfessional/Managers
12 VICProfessional/Managers
13 QLDProfessional/Managers
14 WAProfessional/Managers
15 SAProfessional/Managers
16 Engineering
17 Mining
18 Information&CommunicationTechnology
19 Retail
20 Tourism&Hospitality
21 Media&Marketing
22 HumanResources&Recruitment
23 Health&CommunityServices
24 Education
25 Government
26 FinancialServices
27 Property&BusinessServices
28 Construction&Property
29 Transport&Storage
30 Manufacturing
31 GenX,Y,Boomers,TwilightCareers
32 Summary
34 CandidateEnvironmentIndex
36 AustralianSalaryReview
37 Retrospective
38 Glossary
39 Methodology
40 Disclaimer
02
MYCAREER EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
INTRODUCTIONThe MyCareer Employment Forecast has provided an accurate picture of the current and future Australian employment market since 2003. The report is produced every six months by EMDA, an Australian based Economic and Market Development Consultancy, and sponsored by Fairfax Media.
ThereportcoverstheAustralian,mainlandstates,professionalandmanagerialmarketsaswellaskeyindustries.TheNovember2012editionfindsthatthenumberofjobscontinuestogrow,butthatthegrowthisveryweakbyhistoricalstandardsandalsoveryuneven.TheMiningsectorremainsastandoutwhereasthePublicSector,alongwithothers,isdeclining.
Thereportalsofindsthegrowthinjobshasnotbeenevenamongstthegenerationalsegments,withTwilightCareersremainingthefastestgrowing.Itsnumbershavereachedrecordlevels.But,forGenerationY,thejobsmarkethasslowed.
TheoverallmarketfortheProfessional/ManagerssectorinAustraliahasreturnedtogrowthafteraweak2011.Atthestatelevel,WAcontinuestobeastandoutintermsofjobsgrowth,whileSAisinthedoldrums.
Thiseditionalsofindsthatanumberofindicatorspointtoanoverallfairlyflatjobmarket.Totalhoursworkedhaseasedandvacancylevelshavedropped,althoughtheyarestillquitehigh.Unemploymentalsoremainsquitelowbyhistoricalstandards.Usuallyduringtimesofuncertainty,unemploymentcanrisequiterapidly,butthathasnotbeenthecaseforAustraliainthislatestglobalslowdown.
Turningtotheoutlook,thisreportfindstherearemorepositivesignsgoingforward.TheEuropeandebtsituationisstabilisingandtheUSFederalReservehasannouncedfurthermonetarymeasures,basicallytolowerinterestratesfurther.InAustralia,bothbusinessandconsumerconfidenceisalittlebetterandinterestrateshavefallen,whichshouldstimulatethemarket.Ontheotherhand,theweakerChineseeconomicgrowthhasslightlydampenedtheMiningoutlook,althoughthissectorstillremainsstrong.
Businessemploymentintentionsremainpositive,althoughsubduedintheyeartoJune2012.Theforwardindicatorsthereforearepointingtoamorepositiveoutlookwithgrowthpickingupthroughthenewyear.
IntheyeartoAugust2013,137,000jobsareforecasttobeaddedtotheAustralianjobmarket.ThisisanimprovementontheyeartoAugust2012whenjust58,000newpositionswereadded,lowbyhistoricalstandards.Eventhisimprovedgrowthissoft.Asacontrast,inearly2011,over300,000jobswerebeingaddedtotheeconomy.
03
MYCAREER EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
AUSTRALIAAstheglobalsituationimproves,areturntoslowjobsgrowthisforecast.
DRIVER SUMMARY
PrivateConsumption
CapitalExpenditure
GDP
NABJobIntentions
Composite Index
Source: ABS/EMDA Model 2012
FORECAST TOTAL JOBS(‘000)
ANNUAL GROWTH IN JOBS
(‘000)
ANNUAL GROWTH(%)
QUARTERLY GROWTH IN JOBS
(‘000)
QUARTERLY GROWTH (%)
Nov12 11,491 55 0.5 19 0.2
Feb13 11,519 79 0.7 28 0.2
May13 11,556 98 0.9 37 0.3
Aug13 11,609 137 1.2 53 0.5
AlthoughtheAustralianeconomycontinuestogrow,up3.7%intheyeartoJune2012,thepacehasslowed.This,combinedwithageneralnervousnessacrossthenation,hasresultedinthejobmarketflatlininginAustralia.Businessandconsumerconfidenceindicatorshavebeenimpactedbytheglobaluncertainty,chieflytheEuropeandebtsituation,althoughbothlevelsareimprovingslowly.IntheyeartoAugust2012,just58,000newpositionswereadded,whichislowbyhistoricalstandards.Bywayofcontrast,inearly2011,morethan300,000jobswerebeingaddedtotheeconomy.
Althoughtheeconomyhasslowed,unemploymentatjustover5%(629,100people)stillremainsrelativelylowcomparedtootherOECDcountries.Thishighlightsthelikelihoodthatwhentheglobaleconomygathersmomentum,abroaderlabourshortagewillappearinAustraliaoncemore.
Totalhoursworkedisanotherindicatorofthestateofthejob
marketandthishassoftenedby0.7%(August2012comparedwithAugust2011).Highlightingtheflatlinenatureofthemarket,hoursworkedamongstpartandfulltimeworkersarebothdownslightly.
Therearemorepositivesignsgoingforward.TheEuropeandebtsituationisstabilisingandtheUSFederalReservehasannouncedfurthermonetarymeasures,basicallytolowerinterestratesfurther.InAustralia,businessandconsumerconfidenceisalittlebetterandinterestrateshavefallen,whichshouldstimulatethemarket.Ontheotherhand,theweakerChineseeconomicgrowthhasslightlydampenedtheMiningoutlook,althoughthissectorstillremainsstrong.
Withemploymentintentionsremainingpositive(+4.4toJune2012),thejobsoutlookispositive,withgrowthpickingupthroughthenewyear.IntheyeartoAugust2013,137,000jobsareforecasttobeadded.
ACTUAL (Aug 12)TOTALJOBS:11,472(‘000)
58 (‘000)additionaljobsinthelast
12mths
0.5% growthinthelast12mths
14 (‘000)additional
jobssincelastquarter
0.1% growthsincethe
lastquarter
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Feb
08
Aug
08
Feb
09
Aug
09
Feb
10
Aug
10
Feb
11
Aug
11
Feb
12
Aug
12
Feb
13
Aug
13
Aug
03
Feb
04
Aug
04
Feb
05
Aug
05
Feb
06
Aug
06
Feb
07
Aug
07
F
AUS ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. AUS QUARTERLY GROWTH %
04
MYCAREER EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
0.1% growthsincethe
lastquarter
3(‘000)additional
jobssincelastquarter
NEW SOUTH WALESEmploymentintentionsstillremainpositiveinNSW.
DRIVER SUMMARY
NSWConsumption
NSWGSP
NABJobIntentions
Composite Index
Source: ABS/EMDA Model 2012
FORECAST TOTAL JOBS(‘000)
ANNUAL GROWTH IN JOBS
(‘000)
ANNUAL GROWTH(%)
QUARTERLY GROWTH IN JOBS
(‘000)
QUARTERLY GROWTH (%)
Nov12 3,609 7 0.2 6 0.2
Feb13 3,617 21 0.6 8 0.2
May13 3,628 28 0.8 11 0.3
Aug13 3,644 41 1.1 16 0.4
AfterafairlysoftstarttotheyearintheNewSouthWalesjobmarket,therearesignsthatthesituationisimproving,withverymodestjobsgrowthrecordedinthelasttwoquarters.Overall,theNSWeconomyisalsoshowinganimprovement,withtheeconomygrowingat3.0%intheyeartoJune2012.Thisisanimprovementfromthetroughof1.5%inSeptember2011.Havingsaidthat,thejobmarketisstillsoftcomparedtohistoricalstandards.
Onanannualbasis,just6,200fulltimejobshavebeenaddedtotheeconomy.Incontrast,byearly2011justover80,000fulltimejobshadbeenadded.Thesituationissimilarwithparttimeemployment.Inearly2011,about25,000parttimejobswereadded,butbytheyearendedAugust2012,thishadfallentojustbelowzerowithanetlossof800jobs.
WagesinNSWhavesoftenedaswell,growingat2.9%,whichisjustabovethecurrentpaceofinflationandwellbelowthepeakrateof7.5%intheyeartoNovember2005.TheaveragesalaryforaprofessionalnowinNSWisjustshyof$100Kbutgrewstronglyover2012by7.3%.Managerialsalariesonaveragearejustover$110Kbuthavebeengrowingmoremoderatelyat3.5%,reflectingthemoredifficulttradingenvironmentandthereductioninbonuses.
Businessemploymentintentionsarestillpositive(+3.2inJune2012),whichisaboutthesameasthenationallevel.This,combinedwithanimprovementintheeconomy,meanstheoutlookisbetter,withjobsforecasttobegrowingby1.1%onanannualbasisbyAugust2013.
ACTUAL (Aug 12)TOTALJOBS:3,603(‘000)
5 (‘000)additionaljobsinthelast
12mths
0.1% growthinthelast12mths
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5A
ug 1
3
Aug
03
Feb
04
Aug
04
Feb
05
Aug
05
Feb
06
Aug
06
Feb
07
Aug
07
Feb
08
Aug
08
Feb
09
Aug
09
Feb
10
Aug
10
Feb
11
Aug
11
Feb
12
Feb
13
Aug
12
F
NSW ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. NSW QUARTERLY GROWTH %
05
MYCAREER EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
VICTORIAAfteraflat2012,2013islookingbetterinVictoria.
DRIVER SUMMARY
VICConsumption
VICGSP
VICJobIntentions
Composite Index
Source: ABS/EMDA Model 2012
FORECAST TOTAL JOBS(‘000)
ANNUAL GROWTH IN JOBS
(‘000)
ANNUAL GROWTH (%)
QUARTERLY GROWTH IN JOBS
(‘000)
QUARTERLY GROWTH(%)
Nov12 2,879 0 0.0 2 0.1
Feb13 2,887 12 0.4 8 0.3
May13 2,897 21 0.7 10 0.3
Aug13 2,909 32 1.1 12 0.4
ThestateofplayinVictoriacanbecharacterisedasaneconomyinaholdingpattern,althoughinJune2012economicgrowthedgedupanotchto2.3%from2.1%sinceJune2011.Thisinsipideconomicgrowthhastranslatedintothejobmarket,withoveralljobfiguresduring2012stayingbasicallyflat.However,thereisasignificantdifferencebetweenfulltimejobsandparttimejobs.OvertheyeartoAugust2012,thenumberoffulltimejobshasfallen17,400,whereasayearago79,500wereadded.Ontheotherhand,21,700parttimepositionshavebeenadded.Theshiftingoffulltimejobstoparttimejobsisatypicalresponsetosofteconomicconditionsasbusinessesadjusttheircosts.
TheunemploymentrateinVictoriahasalsoedgedup,fromalowof4.8%earlyin2011to5.5%byAugust2012.Thisrate,however,hasremainedatthislevelsincethebeginningoftheyear,indicatingthejobmarketisstaticratherthandeclining.Thenumberofhours
workedalsopointstothefairlyflatjobmarket,withhoursworkedsofteningby1.4%intheyeartoAugust2012.
Thissofteningingrowthhasalsoresultedinasimilarsofteninginwagesgrowth.WagesinVictoriacontinuetogrow,butthegrowthhasslowedto4.4%perannumintheMay2012quarter,whereasayearearliertheyrosebymorethan8%.
TheoutlookstillremainspositiveandwellupfromthenegativetroughsattheheightoftheGFC.Employmentintentionsarestillpositive(0.2)butonlyjust.TheEMDAmodelisforecastinganotherflatquarterforVictoria,followedbyareturntogrowthastheeconomypicksup,thankstoimprovedconfidenceandlowerinterestrates.
ACTUAL (Aug 12)TOTALJOBS:2,877(‘000)
4 (‘000)additionaljobsinthelast
12mths
0.1% growthinthelast12mths
1 (‘000)additional
jobssincelastquarter
0.0% growthsincethe
lastquarter
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5A
ug 1
3
Aug
03
Feb
04
Aug
04
Feb
05
Aug
05
Feb
06
Aug
06
Feb
07
Aug
07
Feb
08
Aug
08
Feb
09
Aug
09
Feb
10
Aug
10
Feb
11
Aug
11
Feb
12
Feb
13
Aug
12
F
VIC ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. VIC QUARTERLY GROWTH %
06
MYCAREER EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
0.0% growthsincethe
lastquarter
-1(‘000)jobssince
lastquarter
QUEENSLANDAfteraflat2012,fasterjobsgrowthisforecasttoreturnin2013.
DRIVER SUMMARY
QLDConsumption
QLDGSP
QLDJobIntentions
Composite Index
Source: ABS/EMDA Model 2012
FORECAST TOTAL JOBS(‘000)
ANNUAL GROWTH IN JOBS
(‘000)
ANNUAL GROWTH(%)
QUARTERLY GROWTHIN JOBS
(‘000)
QUARTERLY GROWTH(%)
Nov12 2,344 8 0.3 2 0.1
Feb13 2,348 8 0.3 4 0.2
May13 2,355 12 0.5 7 0.3
Aug13 2,370 28 1.2 15 0.6
TheQueenslandeconomyhasreboundedstronglyfromearly2011,growingat6.9%intheyeartoJune2012,althoughthishasslowedfromthe9.8%achievedinDecember2011.Despitethisgrowth,themoodofcautionthathascharacterisedtheemploymentmarketsincethebeginningoftheyearhasremained.IntheyeartoAugust2012,just11,000jobswereadded.PriortotheGFC,theQueenslandeconomywasregularlyaddingbetween80,000and100,000jobsperannum.Inanunusualsituation,parttimeworkisactuallyfalling,withpositionsdown5,400intheyeartoAugust.Ontheotherhand,fulltimejobsaregrowingandhaveincreasedby16,500overtheyear.This,however,iswelldownfromthepeakof2007whennearly100,000fulltimejobswerebeingaddedperannum.
Inanothersignthatthejobmarketissoft,hoursworkedhavefallenby2.7%intheyeartoAugust2012.WagesgrowthhasalsobeensubduedinQueensland,growingjust2.4%inMay2012.The
unemploymentratehasalsoedgedupinthestate,reaching5.8%,whereaspriortotheGFCitbottomedat3.6%.
Intheshortterm,employmentgrowthinQueenslandisforecasttobemodest,withtheresilientlyhighAustraliandollarandglobaleconomicuncertaintycontinuingtoweighonbusinesssentimentandconsumerconfidence,althoughthishasimprovedslightlyoflate.ThejobcutsannouncedbytheQueenslandGovernment(14,000workers)willalsohaveanegativeimpactongrowthintheshortterm.Despiteallthis,growthisexpectedtopickupbythemiddleofnextyear,asbetterglobalconditionsandinterestratecutshaveapositiveimpactandbusinessemploymentintentionsremainpositive(7.9).ByAugust2013,jobsareforecasttobegrowingby1.2%perannum.
ACTUAL (Aug 12)TOTALJOBS:2,342(‘000)
11 (‘000)additionaljobsinthelast
12mths
0.5% growthinthelast12mths
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0A
ug 1
3
Aug
03
Feb
04
Aug
04
Feb
05
Aug
05
Feb
06
Aug
06
Feb
07
Aug
07
Feb
08
Aug
08
Feb
09
Aug
09
Feb
10
Aug
10
Feb
11
Aug
11
Feb
12
Feb
13
Aug
12
F
QLD ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. QLD QUARTERLY GROWTH %
07
MYCAREER EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
WESTERN AUSTRALIASofteningcommoditypriceswon’tderailjobsgrowthinWA.
DRIVER SUMMARY
WAConsumption
WAGSP
WAJobIntentions
Composite Index
Source: ABS/EMDA Model 2012
FORECAST TOTAL JOBS(‘000)
ANNUAL GROWTHIN JOBS
(‘000)
ANNUAL GROWTH(%)
QUARTERLY GROWTHIN JOBS
(‘000)
QUARTERLY GROWTH(%)
Nov12 1,276 43 3.5 10 0.8
Feb13 1,284 42 3.4 8 0.6
May13 1,291 37 3.0 7 0.5
Aug13 1,298 32 2.5 7 0.5
TheWesternAustralianeconomyachievedstrongeconomicgrowthof12.7%intheJune2012year,slowingslightlyfromDecember2011,whenitreachedaheady13.4%.Withsuchrobustgrowth,itisperhapsnotsurprisingthatthejobmarkethasbeenbuoyant.IntheyeartoAugust2012,36,700jobswereadded(3.0%p.a.).
Asafurthersignofthestrengthofitseconomy,WAadded33,900fulltimejobsovertheyear,therateofgrowthaccelerating.Hoursworkedalsoincreased,up4.2%overtheyear,WAbeingtheonlystateorterritorytoachievethis.Alsoatoddswiththenationaltrend,unemploymentisactuallyfallinginWA,withtheratenowdownto3.7%,consideredasfullemployment.Alsoreflectingthestronggrowth,wagesgrowthiseasilyoutpacingAustraliaoverall,withwagesrising5.0%inWAcomparedwith4.1%nationally.
BusinessemploymentintentionsinWAremainthehighestofanystate(13.6).However,notevenWAhasbeenimmunefromtheglobalfinancialuncertaintyandtherecentsofteningincommodityprices.ThesecombinedtodampenconfidencesinceJune12,butnottosquashit.
Withbusinessemploymentintentionssolid,theoutlookisstillpositiveinWAthankstotheMiningsector,butnottotheextentthatitwas.ByAugust2013,jobsareforecasttobegrowingat2.5%perannum,althoughthisisslightlylowerthanwhatiscurrentlybeingachievedandlowerthanthelong-termaverage.
ACTUAL (Aug 12)TOTALJOBS:1,266(‘000)
37 (‘000)additionaljobsinthelast
12mths
3.0% growthinthelast12mths
12 (‘000)additional
jobssincelastquarter
1.0% growthsincethe
lastquarter
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
Feb
08
Aug
08
Feb
09
Aug
09
Feb
10
Aug
10
Feb
11
Aug
11
Feb
12
Aug
12
Feb
13
Aug
13
Aug
03
Feb
04
Aug
04
Feb
05
Aug
05
Feb
06
Aug
06
Feb
07
Aug
07
F
WA ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. WA QUARTERLY GROWTH %
08
MYCAREER EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
-0.4% growthsincethe
lastquarter
-3(‘000)jobssince
lastquarter
SOUTH AUSTRALIASAhasbeeninthedoldrumsbutgrowthisexpectedbymidnextyear.
DRIVER SUMMARY
SAConsumption
SAGSP
SAJobIntentions
Composite Index
Source: ABS/EMDA Model 2012
FORECAST TOTAL JOBS(‘000)
ANNUAL GROWTH IN JOBS
(‘000)
ANNUAL GROWTH(%)
QUARTERLY GROWTHIN JOBS
(‘000)
QUARTERLY GROWTH(%)
Nov12 816 -4 -0.5 -2 -0.2
Feb13 815 -7 -0.8 -1 -0.1
May13 816 -5 -0.6 1 0.1
Aug13 818 0 0.0 2 0.2
SouthAustraliahassufferedthemostofanystaterecently.Althougheconomicgrowthhaspickedupagainto2.7%intheyeartoJune2012,thisissoftcomparedtootherstates.Inresponsetotheweakeconomy,theSAjobmarketshrunkintheyeartoAugust2012.Fulltimejobsarenowfallingby2.6%annually,alossof14,300positions.Thisisonaparwiththejoblossesexperiencedinthe1991recession.Unliketheexperienceatthattime,parttimejobsarestillgrowingquitestrongly,with13,800positionsaddedintheyeartoAugust2012.Butreflectingtherelativelysubduedjobmarket,thenumberofhoursworkedhasfallen2.6%overtheyear.
InablowtotheSAeconomy,BHPBillitonannounceditwouldnotproceedwiththeexpansionoftheOlympicDamMine.Thiswastobeamulti-billiondollarinvestmentandwouldhaveprovidedasignificantstimulustothestate’seconomy.Atthesametime,theSAGovernmentannouncedjobreductiontargetsforthePublic
Sectorof5,100jobsoverseveralyears.Partofthereasonforthecuts,otherthanhelpingtobalancethebooks,istoreversethestronggrowthinthePublicSector.OnJune1lastyear,therewere84,882fulltimePublicSectoremployees,makingup12.6percentofthestate’sworkforce.Thenumbersdippedaslowas66,933in2002.
Onabrighternote,lowerinterestratescombinedwithslightlybetterbusinessandconsumerconfidenceshouldleadtoanimprovementinthejobmarketbynextyear.AlthoughbusinessemploymentintentionshavesoftenedinSA,theystillremainpositive,albeitjust.Thewash-upisthatalthoughthenexttwoquartersareexpectedtoremainsoft,jobsareforecasttogrowby0.2%inthequartertoAugust2013.
ACTUAL (Aug 12)TOTALJOBS:818(‘000)
-1 (‘000)jobsinthe
last12mths
-0.1% growthinthelast12mths
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
Feb
08
Aug
08
Feb
09
Aug
09
Feb
10
Aug
10
Feb
11
Aug
11
Feb
12
Aug
12
Feb
13
Aug
13
Aug
03
Feb
04
Aug
04
Feb
05
Aug
05
Feb
06
Aug
06
Feb
07
Aug
07
F
SA ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. SA QUARTERLY GROWTH %
09
MYCAREER EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
FULL TIME & PART TIME JOBSFulltimejobsarestillgrowingbutonlyjust.
DRIVER SUMMARY
PrivateConsumption
CapitalExpenditure
GDP
NABJobIntentions
Composite Index
Source: ABS/EMDA Model 2012
FORECAST TOTAL FULL TIME JOBS (‘000)
ANNUAL GROWTH IN FULL TIME JOBS (%)
TOTAL PART TIME JOBS (‘000)
ANNUAL GROWTH IN PART TIME JOBS
(%)
Nov12 8,065 0.2 3,426 1.1
Feb13 8,080 0.4 3,439 1.5
May13 8,110 0.7 3,447 1.4
Aug13 8,136 0.9 3,472 1.8
ThecontinuedeconomicuncertaintyputadampeneronboththefulltimeandparttimejobsgrowthintheyeartoAugust2012.Theslowdowninthegrowthofparttimejobsisunusualintimesofeconomicuncertainty.
Fulltimeemploymentcontinuedtogrowover2012,with24,000fulltimejobsadded.However,thisiswellbelowthe250,000fulltimejobsaddedinthepreviousyear.Notsurprisingly,theMiningsectorhasbeenthestandoutintermsofgrowth,withfulltimejobsrising22.1%.Healthcarecontinuesitsrunofgrowth,withjobsup5.4%,whilePropertyandBusinessServicesisalsogrowingjobs(+3.6%).Telecommunications(3.8%),Utilities(3.7%),FinancialandInsuranceServices(2.7%)andGovernment(1.4%)arealsogrowingjobs.Ontheotherhand,Education(-0.2%),WholesaleTrade(-0.2%),RetailTrade(-1.7%),Manufacturing(-2.7%),Tourism(-3.4%)Construction(-4.4%)andTransportandStorage(-4.5%)arealllosingjobs.Tohave
thismanysectorslosingfulltimejobsisunusualandhighlightsthesoftnessintheeconomyinsomesectors.
Parttimeemploymenthascontinuedtogrow,asithasdoneforyears,butthegrowthissubdued.IntheyeartoAugust2012,34,200parttimejobswereaddedtotheeconomy.Intermsofgrowth,theMiningsectorwasthestandoutwithpositionsup22.1%intheyeartoAugust2012.Intermsoftotaljobs,theretailsectoristhelargestwith585,000parttimepositions.However,positionsfell2.8%.TheHealthsectorisalsoanotherlargeemployerofparttimepositions,with576,000rolesgrowingat2.1%.
Withtheeconomyexpectedtopickupsteamagain,nowthattheglobaleconomicsituationlooksbetter,fulltimejobsareforecasttogrow(+0.9%)bymid-2013.Parttimejobsarealsoforecasttogrow,withemployeesvaluingtheflexibility.Increasingnumbersofpeoplepreferaparttimeroletosuittheirwork/lifestylebalance.
ACTUAL (Aug 12)
0.3% growthinFT
jobsinthelast12mths
3,412 (‘000)totalPTjobs
inthelast12mths
1.0% growthinthePTjobsinthelast
12mths
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
Aug
13
Aug
03
Feb
04
Aug
04
Feb
05
Aug
05
Feb
06
Aug
06
Feb
07
Aug
07
Feb
08
Aug
08
Feb
09
Aug
09
Feb
10
Aug
10
Feb
11
Aug
11
Feb
12
Feb
13
Aug
12
F
PART TIME % p.a. FULL TIME % p.a.
8,060 (‘000)totalFTjobsinthelast
12mths
10
MYCAREER EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
FORECAST TOTAL JOBS(‘000)
ANNUAL GROWTH IN
JOBS (%)
QUARTERLY GROWTH IN
JOBS (%)
Nov12 4,024 2.5 0.7
Feb13 4,058 2.9 0.8
May13 4,096 3.0 0.9
AUSTRALIA PROFESSIONAL/ MANAGERSThiscategoryhasreturnedtogrowthandmoreistocome.
DRIVER SUMMARY
BusinessCap.Ex
AUSGDP
Composite Index
Source: ABS/EMDA Model 2012
TheProfessional/Managersemploymentmarkethasimprovedsincemid-2011butissubduedwhencomparedtohistoricalstandards.IntheyeartoAugust2012,jobsincreasedby2.1%.
Managerialpositionsfellinthesecondhalfof2011asrenewedconcernsabouttheglobaldebtemerged.Atthestartof2012,positionsstartedtogrowagainandarenowgainingatareasonable1.9%perannum.However,thisisafarcryfromthe5.9%growthrateofmid-2010.Positionsforspecialistmanagershavegrown,withjobsup3.7%intheyeartoAugust2012.Demandremainsstrongforengineeringmanagers.Oneweaksectorisinthehospitalityarea,wherepositionsaredown.
Professionalpositionscontinuetogrow(0.5%yeartoAugust2012)butthisissubduedforthissector.Innormaltimes,jobsgrowatabout2%to3%perannum.Humanresourcepositionsarenow
growingagain,whiledemandforaccountantsremainsquitegoodaswellasfinanceprofessionals.Thereisalsoimproveddemandforsalesandmarketingstaffasorganisationsstarttorepositionforgrowth.Similarly,thereisstrongdemandforbusinessanalysts.
Remunerationinthiscategorycontinuestooutpaceinflation.Managerialandprofessionalsalariesarenowgrowingatsimilarlevels,withprofessionalsalariesincreasingby3.7%andmanagerialsalariesby3.0%intheyeartoJune2012.
Withtheeconomycontinuingtogrowandpickuppace,jobsforprofessionalsandmanagersarealsoforecasttocontinuetogrow.Thepaceofgrowthisalsoforecasttopickup,increasingto3.0%bytheendofMay2013.
ACTUAL (Aug 12)TOTALJOBS:3,995(‘000)
2.1% growthinthelast12mths
0.5% growthsincethe
lastquarter
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0M
ay 1
3
Nov
02
May
02
Nov
03
May
03
Nov
04
May
04
Nov
05
May
05
Nov
06
May
06
Nov
07
May
07
Nov
08
May
08
Nov
09
May
09
Nov
10
May
10
Nov
11
May
11
May
12
Nov
12
F
AUS ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. AUS QUARTERLY GROWTH %
11
MYCAREER EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
NSW PROFESSIONAL/ MANAGERSAfteraflatAugust2012quarter,areturntogrowthisforecast.
WiththeNewSouthWaleseconomygrowingatasluggishrate,jobsgrowthforProfessional/Managersintotalcontinuedtobattlealongintheslowlane,risingjust1.0%intheyeartoAugust2012.TheAugust2012quarterwasflat.Interestingly,thejobsgrowthratebetweenprofessionalsandmanagershasbeenquitedifferent.Managerialpositionsremainvirtuallystatic,whileprofessionalpositionscontinuetogrow.
Managerialjobsaredownjust0.1%,mainlyduetoasofteninginfarmmanagementpositions.Demandforspecialistmanagershasbeenstrongwithjobsgrowingby4.4%.Financeandhumanresourcepositionshavealsobeenstrong,however,positionsforhospitalitymanagershavebeenweaker.Salarygrowthhasbeensubdued,fallingto3.5%intheyeartoJune2012,althoughtheaveragemanagerialsalaryinNSWhastopped$110K.OnlyinWAaresalarieshigher,at$120K.
Professionalpositionscontinuetogrow,althougheventhissub-sectorhasnotbeenimmunefromtheslowdown.Jobsaregrowingnowat1.6%,whereaspre-GFCtheyweregrowingattriplethatrate.Thedemandforbusinessprofessionalshasbeenstronger,withpositionsup0.8%.Accountancyandhumanresourcepositionsaregrowingagain.Reflectingtheweaknessintheconstructionindustry,professionalpositionsinthatsectorareweaker.Positionsforhealthprofessionalscontinuetogrow.Salariesforprofessionalscontinuetogrowstrongly,withincomesup7.3%intheyeartoJune2012.
WiththeNSWeconomygatheringmomentumduringthefirsthalfof2013,theoutlookfortheProfessional/Managerialsectorisquitegood,positionsforecasttogrowby1.8%p.a.byMay2013.
ACTUAL (Aug 12)TOTALJOBS:1,305(‘000)
1.0% growthinthelast12mths
0.0% growthsincethe
lastquarter
FORECAST TOTAL JOBS(‘000)
ANNUAL GROWTH IN
JOBS (%)
QUARTERLY GROWTH IN
JOBS (%)
Nov12 1,310 1.3 0.4
Feb13 1,318 1.5 0.6
May13 1,328 1.8 0.7
DRIVER SUMMARY
NSWBusinessCap.Ex
NSWGSP
Composite Index
Source: ABS/EMDA Model 2012
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0M
ay 1
3
Nov
02
May
02
Nov
03
May
03
Nov
04
May
04
Nov
05
May
05
Nov
06
May
06
Nov
07
May
07
Nov
08
May
08
Nov
09
May
09
Nov
10
May
10
Nov
11
May
11
May
12
Nov
12
F
NSW ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. NSW QUARTERLY GROWTH %
12
MYCAREER EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
VIC PROFESSIONAL/ MANAGERSDespiteoverallweakjobnumbers,thissegmentisgrowingagain.
ThegrowthinProfessional/ManagerspositionsinVictoriahasimprovedsincethelastreportandhasreturnedtogrowthafteraflatmarketsincemid-2010.OvertheyeartoAugust2012,16,000Professional/Managerialpositionshavebeenadded.
Managerialpositionsaregrowingagain(4.1%)afterdecliningsincethemiddleoflastyear.Positionsforspecialistmanagershaverebounded,withjobsrisingby7.3%afterfallingformorethanayear.Managementpositionsinthehospitalityareacontinuetobesoft,withjobsdown3.3%.Reflectingthemorechallengingeconomictimes,salarieshavehardlygrownovertheyear,risingjust0.4%intheyeartoJune2012.
Professionalpositionsareflat,followingverystronggrowthinearly2011.Positionsforbusiness,humanresourceandmarketingaregrowingat5.5%.Positionsfordesignandengineeringrolesarealsogrowing2.0%.PositionsforICTprofessionalsaresimilarlygrowingagain(2.4%).Rolesforeducationprofessionalsarealittleweaker,down2%.Salarieshaveactuallyfallenslightlyduetotheweakereconomicconditions.
Withtheeconomyexpectedtogathermomentumafteraflatyear,managerialandprofessionalpositionsareforecasttocontinuetogrow,withjobsup2.7%byMay13.
ACTUAL (Aug 12)TOTALJOBS:1,038(‘000)
1.5% growthinthelast12mths
0.8% growthsincethe
lastquarter
FORECAST TOTAL JOBS(‘000)
ANNUAL GROWTH IN
JOBS (%)
QUARTERLY GROWTH IN
JOBS (%)
Nov12 1,044 2.1 0.5
Feb13 1,050 2.6 0.6
May13 1,058 2.7 0.7
DRIVER SUMMARY
VICBusinessCap.Ex
VICGSP
Composite Index
Source: ABS/EMDA Model 2012
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0M
ay 1
3
Nov
02
May
02
Nov
03
May
03
Nov
04
May
04
Nov
05
May
05
Nov
06
May
06
Nov
07
May
07
Nov
08
May
08
Nov
09
May
09
Nov
10
May
10
Nov
11
May
11
May
12
Nov
12
F
VIC ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. VIC QUARTERLY GROWTH %
13
MYCAREER EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
QLD PROFESSIONAL/ MANAGERSAcontinuedpick-upindemandisforecastover2013.
WiththeQueenslandeconomystillgrowing,positionsintheProfessional/Managerssectorareimprovingstronglyaswell,upasolid3.5%perannum.Unlikeotherstates,jobsforbothprofessionalsandmanagersaregrowingatsimilarratesintheSunshineState.
Thegrowthinmanagerialpositionscontinuedtorecoverafterafairlydismal2011.Managerialpositionsarenowgrowingat3.5%p.a.(yeartoAugust2012).Demandforspecialistmanagementpositionswassteady.Positionsatthegeneralmanagementlevelcontinuetogrowstrongly,aswellasfarmmanagementroles.Hospitalitymanagementisstillsoftduetothesubduedtourismsector.
Thedemandforprofessionalscontinuestobestrong.Professionalpositionsaregrowingat3.4%p.a.(yearendedAugust2012).Business,humanresourceandsales/marketingrolesareallgrowing
morethantheoveralljobmarket(3.2%).Design,engineeringandscienceprofessionalsareslightlysofter,reflectingtheweaknessintheconstructionsector.Jobsforeducationprofessionalsareweaker,while,asalways,opportunitiesforhealthprofessionalscontinuetogrow.PositionsforICTprofessionalsarealsoincreasingstrongly.
Withthestrongerdemand,salarieshavestartedtoincreaseagain,althoughthereisavariationbetweenthetwostreams.Managerialsalarieshaveincreased1.5%,justkeepingpacewithinflation,whilesalariesforprofessionalsaregrowingat5.7%.
WiththeQueenslandeconomyexpectedtoreturntobettertimesastheglobalsituationimproves,moregrowthisexpectedinthemanagerialandprofessionaljobareas.ByMay2013,jobsareforecasttobegrowingatasolid3.8%onanannualbasis,withquarterlygrowthpickingup.
ACTUAL (Aug 12)TOTALJOBS:758(‘000)
3.5% growthinthelast12mths
0.2% growthsincethe
lastquarter
FORECAST TOTAL JOBS(‘000)
ANNUAL GROWTH IN
JOBS (%)
QUARTERLY GROWTH IN
JOBS (%)
Nov12 766 3.3 1.0
Feb13 775 4.3 1.2
May13 785 3.8 1.3
DRIVER SUMMARY
QLDBusinessCap.Ex
QLDGSP
Composite Index
Source: ABS/EMDA Model 2012
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0M
ay 1
3
Nov
02
May
02
Nov
03
May
03
Nov
04
May
04
Nov
05
May
05
Nov
06
May
06
Nov
07
May
07
Nov
08
May
08
Nov
09
May
09
Nov
10
May
10
Nov
11
May
11
May
12
Nov
12
F
QLD ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. QLD QUARTERLY GROWTH %
14
MYCAREER EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
WA PROFESSIONAL/ MANAGERSThecontinuedgrowthintheMiningsectorgivesthiscategoryinWAaboost.
WiththeWesternAustralianeconomygrowingstrongly,jobsforProfessional/Managershavecontinuedtoincrease,rising4.2%intheyeartoAugust2012,supportedbyaverysolidAugustquarter.Jobsforbothmanagersandprofessionalsareincreasing,althoughprofessionaljobsaregrowingatamuchfasterrate.
Withthebettereconomicgrowth,managerialpositionsareup1.8%.Thisfigureincludesfarmpositions,althoughthesearestillwelldownduetodifficulttradingconditionsintheagriculturalsector.Jobsforhospitalitymanagersarerisingsolidly(5.5%),whilepositionsforspecialistmanagersarealsogrowing0.4%afternearlyayearandahalfofdecline.Salarylevelsaregrowingagain,up6.1%,reflectingthebetteremploymentsituation.
Professionalpositionsaregrowing,withjobsincreasingat5.5%intheyearendedAugust2012.DemandforICTandhealth
professionalsremainsstrong.Positionsforbusinessandmarketingprofessionalshavealsobeenexperiencinggrowthoveranumberofyears.JobsfordesignandengineeringprofessionalsarealsoincreasingduetothestrengthoftheMiningsectorandrelatedinfrastructuredevelopment.Salarylevelsaregrowingagain(5.7%)thankstothestrongeconomy.
WiththeMiningsectorstillforecasttogrow,duenotonlytostillsolidcommoditypricesbutalsosignificantexpansionunderway,theforecastfortheWAProfessional/Managerssectorisforincreasedgrowthwithjobsrisingby1.4%inthequarterendingMay2013.Thishowever,isaslowdowninthepreviousrapidgrowth.Skillsshortageswillcontinuetobeafeatureofthismarket,especiallyinminingandminingsupportrelatedareas.
ACTUAL (Aug 12)TOTALJOBS:407(‘000)
4.2% growthinthelast12mths
2.1% growthsincethe
lastquarter
FORECAST TOTAL JOBS(‘000)
ANNUAL GROWTH IN
JOBS (%)
QUARTERLY GROWTH IN
JOBS (%)
Nov12 413 6.0 1.5
Feb13 419 6.8 1.4
May13 425 6.7 1.4
DRIVER SUMMARY
WABusinessCap.Ex
WAGSP
Composite Index
Source: ABS/EMDA Model 2012
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0M
ay 1
3
Nov
02
May
02
Nov
03
May
03
Nov
04
May
04
Nov
05
May
05
Nov
06
May
06
Nov
07
May
07
Nov
08
May
08
Nov
09
May
09
Nov
10
May
10
Nov
11
May
11
May
12
Nov
12
F
WA ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. WA QUARTERLY GROWTH %
15
MYCAREER EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
SA PROFESSIONAL/ MANAGERSThiscategoryreallyslowedmid2012but2013isexpectedtobealittlebetter.
Withafairlyweakeconomicenvironment,theSouthAustralianProfessional/Managersmarkethasbeensoftoverthelastsixmonthsorso,beingespeciallyweakintheAugust2012quarterwhenjobsfell0.6%.Managerialpositionsarestillgrowing,butatalowerratethanprofessionalpositions,increasingjust1.0%intheyearendedAugust2012.Specialistmanagementpositionshavegrown5.5%,butmanagementrolesintourismandhospitalityaresoft.Despitethismarket,salariesarestillgrowinginthiscategory.
Theprofessionalsmarkethasbeenalittlebetter,withemploymentup1.7%.Positionsforbusiness,humanresourceandmarketing
professionalsoverallareweaker.OnebrightspotisdemandforICTprofessionalsgrowingagainafterafairlydismal2011.Despitetheflatmarket,salariesforprofessionalsarealsogrowing.
TheSAeconomyisforecasttocontinuetogrow,butataslowpace.Asaconsequence,positionsforprofessionalsandmanagersareexpectedtoquietlynudgeahead,withjobsrisingby0.6%intheMay2013quarter.Thiswouldtakeannualgrowthto1.0%bythattime,arelativelysubduedgrowthratebyhistoricalstandards.
ACTUAL (Aug 12)TOTALJOBS:273(‘000)
1.7% growthinthelast12mths
-0.6% growthsincethe
lastquarter
FORECAST TOTAL JOBS(‘000)
ANNUAL GROWTH IN
JOBS (%)
QUARTERLY GROWTH IN
JOBS (%)
Nov12 274 1.1 0.4
Feb13 276 0.5 0.5
May13 277 1.0 0.6
DRIVER SUMMARY
SABusinessCap.Ex
SAGSP
Composite Index
Source: ABS/EMDA Model 2012
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0M
ay 1
3
Nov
02
May
02
Nov
03
May
03
Nov
04
May
04
Nov
05
May
05
Nov
06
May
06
Nov
07
May
07
Nov
08
May
08
Nov
09
May
09
Nov
10
May
10
Nov
11
May
11
May
12
Nov
12
F
SA ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. SA QUARTERLY GROWTH %
16
MYCAREER EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
ENGINEERINGAshortageofskilledengineersisstillevidentinthissector.
ACTUAL (Aug 12)TOTALJOBS:153(‘000)
-0.3% growthinthelast12mths
1.0% growthsincethe
lastquarter
FORECAST TOTAL JOBS(‘000)
ANNUAL GROWTH IN
JOBS (%)
QUARTERLY GROWTH IN
JOBS (%)
Nov12 154 1.0 0.7
Feb13 155 2.7 0.8
May13 156 3.6 1.0
DRIVER SUMMARY
ConstructionCap.Ex
ResidentialBuilding
AUSGDP
Composite Index
Source: ABS/EMDA Model 2012
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
-5.0
-10.0M
ay 1
3
Nov
02
May
02
Nov
03
May
03
Nov
04
May
04
Nov
05
May
05
Nov
06
May
06
Nov
07
May
07
Nov
08
May
08
Nov
09
May
09
Nov
10
May
10
Nov
11
May
11
May
12
Nov
12
F
AUS ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. AUS QUARTERLY GROWTH %
TheEngineeringsectorhadastrongerquarterinAugustthankstoaswagofbigengineeringprojectsunderway.Positionsgrew1.0%intheAugustquarteralone.
Inbuildingrelatedengineering,steadyvacancylevelsexistacrossmostofAustralia.Demandremainsstrongforseniorlevelengineers,particularlyinelectricaldesign.Civilengineersandseniorcivilengineersareinhighdemand.OneareathatisalittleweakeristhePublicSector,duetoatighteningofbudgets.Ontheotherhand,demandforprojectengineersandprojectmanagershasbeenparticularlystrong,ashastheneedforcivilandelectricaldesignstaff.
InWA,hydrologistsandseniorenvironmentaladvisorswithminingprojectexperienceareinstrongdemand.Mechanicalengineers
withexperienceworkingonresourcesprocessingandmaterialshandlingprojects,especiallygoldandironore,arealsobeingsought.Therearerecruitmentdifficultiesreportedforseniorchemicalengineersinspecialistareasincludingwatertreatmentandtheoilandgassector.
Withtheeconomygatheringpace,theMiningsectorremainingsolidandtheConstructionsectorrecovering,thedemandforengineersmustonlygrow.TheEMDAmodelisforecastingthatengineeringpositionswillbegrowingat3.6%p.a.byMay2013.Thisgrowthwillmeanthatskillsshortagesinthiscategorywillworsen.
17
MYCAREER EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
MININGMoregrowthisforecast,buttheratetoslow.
TheMiningsectorcontinuestobeaverystrongperformerforAustralia,withjobsgrowingatanannualrateof22%totheyearendedAugust2012.Thisisequaltotherecordof22%in2006.However,commoditypriceshavestartedtoease,duetoaslowingingrowthinChinaandincreasedproductionfromothercountries.Itisstillthecase,though,thatcommoditypricesarehighbyhistoricalstandards.
Overall,intheMiningsector,thedemandforengineersremainsstrong.DuetothecontinueddemandofmegaprojectssuchasGorgon,WheatstoneandIchythys-aswellasincreasingneedforstaffontheEastCoastcoalseamgasprojects-thereisastrongdemandforengineerswithAustralianoilandgasexperience.Thiswillplacefurtherpressureonsalariesandbenefits.
MininginQueenslandhascontinuedtobounceback,withproductionrampingupafterrecoveryfromthefloodsof2011.
JobsgrowthhasalsobeenstronginNSWandWAandexpansioncontinuesinthosestates.InSA,jobsincreasedintheyeartoAugust2012.
However,commoditypricesgenerallyhavesoftenedandtherehavebeenmajorannouncementsaboutdelaysorshelvingofprojects,BHPBilliton’scallontheOlympicDamMineexpansionbeingoneofthebiggest.Ratherthanabust,aslowdownintherapidexpansionisexpected,asthereisstillverylargeinvestmentinminingandresourcedevelopmentinthepipeline.
Withsofteningcommodityprices,businessconfidenceinthissectorhaseasedandtheoutlookthereforeisforamoderationingrowthtoalevelthat,althoughsomewhatsubdued,willstillbewayaboveanyotherindustry.ByMay2013,jobsareforecasttobegrowingby10.2%p.a.Atthisgrowthrate,skillsshortageswillcontinuetobeanissueforthissector.
ACTUAL (Aug 12)TOTALJOBS:260(‘000)
22.3% growthinthelast12mths
4.5% growthsincethe
lastquarter
FORECAST TOTAL JOBS(‘000)
ANNUAL GROWTH IN
JOBS (%)
QUARTERLY GROWTH IN
JOBS (%)
Nov12 264 18.4 1.5
Feb13 268 14.8 1.8
May13 274 10.2 1.9
DRIVER SUMMARY
EngineeringConstruction
TradeWeightedIndex
MiningConfidence
Composite Index
Source: ABS/EMDA Model 2012
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
-5.0
-10.0M
ay 1
3
Nov
02
May
02
Nov
03
May
03
Nov
04
May
04
Nov
05
May
05
Nov
06
May
06
Nov
07
May
07
Nov
08
May
08
Nov
09
May
09
Nov
10
May
10
Nov
11
May
11
May
12
Nov
12
F
AUS ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. AUS QUARTERLY GROWTH %
STATE ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. (YEAugust2012)
WA 19.9
SA 34.4
QLD 22.4
VIC 23.3
NSW 23.1
18
MYCAREER EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
INFORMATION & COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGYThissectorhasreturnedtogrowthandmoreisexpected.
Despitetheglobaluncertainty,annualemploymentgrowthinthissectorhasincreasedto2.3%(yearendedAugust2012),withICTprofessionscomprising535,000workersinAustralia.
Managementpositionshaverecoveredandcontinuetogrowstrongly(5.6%).Jobsfortrainersarealsogrowingafteradismalfirsthalfof2011,positionsincreasingby12.5%.Positionsarealsogrowingstronglyamongbusinessandsystemsanalysts,andalsoimprovingforsoftwareandapplicationsprogrammers.Projectmanagerswithoutsourceexperiencearebeingsoughtasoutsourcingcontinuestogrow,whilejobsarealsogrowingforcomputernetworkprofessionals.Testengineerandsupportpositionsarealsogrowingagainafteradismal2011.Datawarehousingspecialistsareindemandasorganisationsbecomemoresophisticatedintheiruseofdataandinformation.
Atthestatelevel,thesectorisgrowingsolidlyinresource-richWA.Althoughgrowthhasslowedthererecently,itismoreasaresultofthechallengeoffindingsuitablestaff.QueenslandisshowinggrowthaswellasNSW,butpositionshavefalleninthetwostatesthathaveexperiencedasofteningineconomicgrowth-SAandVictoria.InthecaseofVictoria,therateofdeclinehasslowed.
Overall,theoutlookforthissectorisbrighter.ThereismajorupgradeworkunderwayincorporateAustralia,slightlybetterbusinessconfidenceandtherolloutoftheNationalBroadbandNetwork,allpositivepointers.Theglobaluncertaintyanddeclineinbusinessconfidencewasadampener,butbothhaveimprovedrecently.TheresultistheICTindustryisforecasttocontinuetogrow,withjobsgrowingat3.5%p.a.byyearendedMay2013.
ACTUAL (Aug 12)TOTALJOBS:535(‘000)
2.3% growthinthelast12mths
1.0% growthsincethe
lastquarter
FORECAST TOTAL JOBS(‘000)
ANNUAL GROWTH IN
JOBS (%)
QUARTERLY GROWTH IN
JOBS (%)
Nov12 540 2.6 0.8
Feb13 544 3.9 0.7
May13 549 3.5 0.9
DRIVER SUMMARY
GDP
BusinessCap.Ex
EmploymentIntentions
Composite Index
Source: ABS/EMDA Model 2012
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0M
ay 1
3
Nov
02
May
02
Nov
03
May
03
Nov
04
May
04
Nov
05
May
05
Nov
06
May
06
Nov
07
May
07
Nov
08
May
08
Nov
09
May
09
Nov
10
May
10
Nov
11
May
11
May
12
Nov
12
F
AUS ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. AUS QUARTERLY GROWTH %
STATE ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. (YEAugust2012)
WA 0.6
SA -7.0
QLD 2.9
VIC -0.8
NSW 5.3
19
MYCAREER EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
RETAILThissectorhasbeeninthedoldrumsbuttherearesignsofimprovement.
Jobshavecontinuedtocontractinthissector.Therehavebeenanumberoffactorsthathavenegativelyimpacted,beinghouseholdsrampinguptheirsavingssignificantly,althoughthereareindicatorstherateofsavinghaspeaked.
Anotherfactoristhatconsumersarepayingofftheirdebtathigherratesthantheyusedto.Athirdimpactisconsumerstakinguponlineshoppingwithgusto,thankstotheverystrongAustraliandollaraswellastheconvenience.
Nevertheless,therearesomesignsthemarketisturning,withconsumerconfidencerespondingtothereductionininterestratesandstartingtoimprovenowthattheEurodebtsituationhasstabilisedsomewhat.Asaresult,non-foodretailsalesaregrowingat2.6%perannum(yearendedJuly2012),whereasinthelasthalfof2011theyweregrowingatjust1.1%.Clothingsalesarestillfallingonanannualbasis(-0.5%),buttheyweredroppingat2.8%inlate
2011.Spendingatcafesandrestaurantsisnowincreasing(4.6%)comparedwithlate2011whentheyweregrowingatjust1.1%.Retailbusinessconfidencehasalsoimprovedslightly.Wagesintheretailsectorarealsogrowingagain,up3.1%afteraverysoft2011.
RetailsalesinNSWhaveliftedslightlybutarestillfairlysubduedandthejobmarketremainssoft.InVictoria,salesgrowthisstillsofteningandthereforethejobmarkethasbeensoft.InQueensland,spendingispickingupagainandthiswilltranslateintoabetterjobmarket.WAisstillrecordingdouble-digitsalesgrowth,withthejobmarkettherestrong.InSA,salesaregrowingagainslowly(1.3%)afterfallingin2011,resultinginmodestjobsgrowth.
Withinputsmorepositive,suchasbusinessandconsumerconfidenceandlowerinterestrates,theoutlookhasimproved,theEMDAmodelforecastinggrowthbymidnextyear.ByMay2013,employmentisforecasttobeincreasingby0.6%inthatquarter.
ACTUAL (Aug 12)TOTALJOBS:1,211(‘000)
-2.2% growthinthelast12mths
-0.5% growthsincethe
lastquarter
FORECAST TOTAL JOBS(‘000)
ANNUAL GROWTH IN
JOBS (%)
QUARTERLY GROWTH IN
JOBS (%)
Nov12 1,209 -1.8 -0.2
Feb13 1,211 -0.9 0.2
May13 1,218 0.1 0.6
DRIVER SUMMARY
PrivateConsumption
Imports
RetailConfidence
Composite Index
Source: ABS/EMDA Model 2012
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0M
ay 1
3
Nov
02
May
02
Nov
03
May
03
Nov
04
May
04
Nov
05
May
05
Nov
06
May
06
Nov
07
May
07
Nov
08
May
08
Nov
09
May
09
Nov
10
May
10
Nov
11
May
11
May
12
Nov
12
F
AUS ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. AUS QUARTERLY GROWTH %
STATE ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. (YEAugust2012)
WA 0.6
SA -7.0
QLD 2.9
VIC -0.8
NSW 5.3
STATE ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. (YEAugust2012)
WA 0.2
SA 0.8
QLD -4.0
VIC -4.3
NSW -1.0
20
MYCAREER EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
TOURISM & HOSPITALITYThetourismmarketisshowingsomesignsofimprovement.
Althoughjobsaredecreasinginthissector,TourismandHospitalityisatlastshowingsignsofcomingbacktolife.IntheAugust2012quarter,jobswerevirtuallystatic,anencouragingfigureafterthebigfallsofearly2012.
Thetourismmarketisalittlebetter.TotaldomestictripsbyAustralianresidentsincreasedby7%intheyeartoJune12,whilespendingbyovernightvisitorsroseto$50.8billion,anincreaseof9%.Daytripexpenditurewaswellup,growingto$17.5billionfrom$15.2billion.Asafurthersignofbettertimes,interstatevisitorspendingincreased5.5%.EventheinternationalmarketisalittlebetterfollowingtheslumpcausedbytheGFC.Totalinternationalexpenditureisup2%comparedtolastyearandvisitornumbersareupslightly,by1%.Accommodationrevenuehasstartedtoimproveaswell,revenueup5.8%inMarch2012whencomparedwiththesamequarterlastyear.Thegrowthinspendingwilltranslateintojobsgrowthinthefuture.
Inafurthersignofimprovement,wagesandsalariesinthissectoraregrowing2.5%.Butaveragetotalsalariesarestillhalftheaverageforthepopulationoverall.
Atthestatelevel,NSWisalittleweakerwhiletheotherstatesareeitherflatorgrowingslightly.Victoriaisonethatisexpandingmarginallydespitetheweakhospitalitysector.
AustralianstravellingoutofAustraliacontinuetobeadampeneronthissectorandthatelementisstillgrowingat4.9%inJuly2012comparedwithJuly2011.Butthecontinuedrecoveryinbusinesstravelandamodestlygrowingdomesticmarketwillsupportareturntojobsgrowth.TheEMDAmodelisforecastingquarterlyjobsgrowthof+0.5%inthequarterendedMay2013.
ACTUAL (Aug 12)TOTALJOBS:765(‘000)
-2.7% growthinthelast12mths
-0.1% growthsincethe
lastquarter
FORECAST TOTAL JOBS(‘000)
ANNUAL GROWTH IN
JOBS (%)
QUARTERLY GROWTH IN
JOBS (%)
Nov12 767 -2.3 0.2
Feb13 770 -0.1 0.3
May13 774 1.1 0.5
DRIVER SUMMARY
AUSGDP,PrivateConsumption
OECDEconomicGrowth
ExchangeRate
EmploymentIntentions
Composite Index
Source: ABS/EMDA Model 2012
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
-6.0M
ay 1
3
Nov
02
May
02
Nov
03
May
03
Nov
04
May
04
Nov
05
May
05
Nov
06
May
06
Nov
07
May
07
Nov
08
May
08
Nov
09
May
09
Nov
10
May
10
Nov
11
May
11
May
12
Nov
12
F
AUS ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. AUS QUARTERLY GROWTH %
STATE ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. (YEAugust2012)
WA 0.0
SA 0.4
QLD 0.0
VIC 1.2
NSW -2.0
21
MYCAREER EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
MEDIA & MARKETINGThissectorstalledinmid2012,withaslowrecoveryforecastin2013.
TheMediaandMarketingsectoremployed227,000peopleintheyeartoAugust2012,growinganimpressive5.0%overtheyearafteraterrible2011.Thissectorisonethatismostresponsivetothestateoftheeconomy.Afterastrongrecoveryin2010,themarketreallysoftenedin2011astherenewedconcernabouttheglobaleconomysawfirmsshelvemarketingexpansionplans.Themarketthenrecovered,butassoonasglobalconcernsre-emergedinmid-2012itslowedconsiderablyagain.Onthemediaside,continuedreductioninthenumberofjournalistsintraditionalmediahasbeenadampener.
Atthesub-sectorlevel,positionsforadvertisingandsalesprofessionalshavestartedtogrowagain,increasingby1.9%intheyeartoAugust2012.However,advertisingandsalesmanagerialpositionsaresoftening.Anareaofparticularstrengthcontinuestobeinthepublicrelationsarea,wherejobsaregrowingatdouble-
digitlevelsandshortagesofstaffarereported.Demandisalsostrongforexperiencedmarketingstaffthatcanmanageacrossmedia,digitalandmobileapplications.
Atthestatelevel,positionsinNSWaregrowingagainonanannualbasis(1.7%)afterawoeful2011.Victoriaisexperiencingareturntogrowth(10.9%)afteraveryslow2011aswell.PositionsarealsogrowingagaininQueensland(7.1%),whileinSAconditionsaresoft.WAhasalsobeenstrong,butfindingsuitablecandidateshasbeenanissue.
TheoutlookforMediaandMarketingisbetterastheeconomicuncertaintystartstofade.TheEMDAmodelisforecastingthatthesectorwillcontinuetogrow,withjobsincreasingoverthenextsixmonths.Growthisforecastat0.7%bytheMay2013quarter.
ACTUAL (Aug 12)TOTALJOBS:227(‘000)
5.0% growthinthelast12mths
0.2% growthsincethe
lastquarter
FORECAST TOTAL JOBS(‘000)
ANNUAL GROWTH IN
JOBS (%)
QUARTERLY GROWTH IN
JOBS (%)
Nov12 228 4.8 0.4
Feb13 229 3.6 0.5
May13 231 1.9 0.7
DRIVER SUMMARY
AUSGDP
EmploymentIntentions
Composite Index
Source: ABS/EMDA Model 2012
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
-5.0
-10.0M
ay 1
3
Nov
02
May
02
Nov
03
May
03
Nov
04
May
04
Nov
05
May
05
Nov
06
May
06
Nov
07
May
07
Nov
08
May
08
Nov
09
May
09
Nov
10
May
10
Nov
11
May
11
May
12
Nov
12
F
AUS ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. AUS QUARTERLY GROWTH %
STATE ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. (YEAugust2012)
WA 0.0
SA 0.4
QLD 0.0
VIC 1.2
NSW -2.0
22
MYCAREER EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
HUMAN RESOURCES & RECRUITMENTAfterastrongbeginningto2012,mid2012wassoft.
TheyeartoAugust2012hasbeenagoodoneforthissector,withpositionsrising9.5%.Asthechartshows,however,thiscategorywasheavilyimpactedbytheGFCin2008and2009,whenthenumberofjobsshranksignificantly.Therethenfollowedastrongrecoveryinpositions,untilnervousnessreturnedintheAugust2012quarterduetotheEuropeandebtsituation.Jobsinthissectorfellimmediatelyasrecruitmentstalled.
Havingsaidthat,positionsforhumanresourcemanagershavebeengrowingovertheyear,aswellaspositionsforhumanresourceprofessionalsandtrainers.Thelatterreflectstherenewedemphasisontrainingwithinorganisations.AfterthecutbacksbroughtonbytheworstoftheGFC,organisationsarerenewingeffortstoretainstaff,seekingbetterengagementthroughimprovedtraining.
Atthestatelevel,jobsaregrowingagaininNSW,butinVictoriapositionshavecontractedastheeconomyhassoftened,diminishingthedemandforrecruitmentservices.Inadirectcorrelationwiththestrengthoftheireconomies,positionsarecontinuingtogrowstronglyinQueenslandandinWA,wherethemarkethasbeenbolsteredasinterstateofficesseektoemploylocalhumanresourceprofessionalsandmanagers.InSA,jobshaveimprovedafteradismal2011.
Withtheeconomypickingupsteam,thejobsoutlookisbetterafterapoorAugust2012quarter.Growthisforecasttoremainatasolidlevelof0.9%bytheMay2013quarter,areasonableratebutstillbelowpre-GCFlevels.
ACTUAL (Aug 12)TOTALJOBS:130(‘000)
9.5% growthinthelast12mths
-1.9% growthsincethe
lastquarter
FORECAST TOTAL JOBS(‘000)
ANNUAL GROWTH IN
JOBS (%)
QUARTERLY GROWTH IN
JOBS (%)
Nov12 131 5.9 0.4
Feb13 131 2.1 0.7
May13 133 0.1 0.9
DRIVER SUMMARY
AUSGDP
EmploymentIntentions
Composite Index
Source: ABS/EMDA Model 2012
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
-5.0
-10.0
-15.0M
ay 1
3
Nov
02
May
02
Nov
03
May
03
Nov
04
May
04
Nov
05
May
05
Nov
06
May
06
Nov
07
May
07
Nov
08
May
08
Nov
09
May
09
Nov
10
May
10
Nov
11
May
11
May
12
Nov
12
F
AUS ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. AUS QUARTERLY GROWTH %
23
MYCAREER EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
HEALTH & COMMUNITY SERVICESThissectorcontinuestogrowasithasinthelast10years.
Thissectorcontinuestoexpandasperusual,growingataratewellaheadoftheoverallaverage.Jobsinhospitalscontinuetogrow(3.0%)andreflectingtheageingofthepopulation,jobsintheresidentialcaresectorarealsogrowing(2.5%.Additionally,jobsinthecommunityservicessub-sectorarealsogrowing(3.2%)despitethecontinuedgrowthintheeconomy,highlightingthatforsomesectionsofthepopulation,conditionsarestilltough.
Positionsareincreasingforanumberofspecialists,includingdentists,doctorsandnurses.Therearecontinualshortagesofnursingstaff,especiallyinregional/remotelocations,whilethereisastrongdemandfordoctorsinbothmetropolitanandregional/remoteareas.Inthecommunityservicessub-category,thereisanincreasingdemandforsocialcareworkers.Shortagesarealsoreportedforoccupationaltherapistsinspecialistrolessuchasmentalhealthandpaediatricsaswellasforsometemporaryandparttimepositions.Innursing,recruitmentisprovingdifficultfor
thoseseekingseniorstaffandthoserequiringregisterednurseswhohavespecialistexperience.Therearealsoshortagesreportedforenrollednursesanddentaltechnicians.
Despitetherelativelygoodemploymentmarketinthissector,salariesgrowthhasslowedto2.4%,whereasmidlastyearitwasgrowingatmorethan5%perannum.
Atstatelevel,jobsaregrowingsolidlyinresource-richWAandQueensland.SAandNSWarealsoaddingjobs.OnlyinVictoriaarejobsweak.
Withskillsshortagesstillapparentinsomeareasandareasonablelevelofvacancies,thejoboutlookinthissectorremainsgood.ByMay2013,jobsareexpectedtobegrowingatanannualrateof3.2%withacontinuedshortageofsuitablestaff.
ACTUAL (Aug 12)TOTALJOBS:1,356(‘000)
4.0% growthinthelast12mths
0.8% growthsincethe
lastquarter
FORECAST TOTAL JOBS(‘000)
ANNUAL GROWTH IN
JOBS (%)
QUARTERLY GROWTH IN
JOBS (%)
Nov12 1,366 3.7 0.7
Feb13 1,378 3.7 0.9
May13 1,388 3.2 0.7
DRIVER SUMMARY
GDP
Popn.Aged65+
Unemployment
Composite Index
Source: ABS/EMDA Model 2012
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0M
ay 1
3
Nov
02
May
02
Nov
03
May
03
Nov
04
May
04
Nov
05
May
05
Nov
06
May
06
Nov
07
May
07
Nov
08
May
08
Nov
09
May
09
Nov
10
May
10
Nov
11
May
11
May
12
Nov
12
F
AUS ANNUAL GROWTH % AUS QUARTERLY GROWTH % p.a.
STATE ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. (YEAugust2012)
WA 12.4
SA 4.1
QLD 7.8
VIC -1.0
NSW 2.7
24
MYCAREER EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
EDUCATIONTheEducationsectorhasreturnedtogrowthafterapoor2011.
TheEducationsectorhasshruggedofftheweaknessintheinternationalstudentsub-sectortorecordsomejobsgrowthintheyeartoAugust2012.Overtheyear,jobsgrewat2.0%p.a.
Withinthepreschoolsub-category,jobsaregrowingstrongly,withhighdemandforpreschoolteachersandchildcaremanagers.Partofthedifficultyinfillingtheserolesisbecausesalariesonofferarelowercomparedtoothereducationalsectors.Withintheschoolsector,employmentoverallisflat,butthereisashortageofsecondaryteachersincertaindisciplinessuchasIT,sciences,mathematicsandtechnicalsubjects.Peoplewiththesequalificationscanachievehighersalariesinotherindustries,addingtotheshortagewithineducation.AnotherfactorisAustralia’sageingteachingpopulation,whichmeansthateveryyearmoreteachersareretiring,increasingthedemand.Atthetertiarylevel,jobsaregrowingagain,butinareaswhereskillsaremoreeasily
transferredtotheprivatesectorsuchasinhealth,fillingteachingrolescanbechallenging.
Jobsgrowthinthestatescontinuestobeamixedbag,withWAandNSWsoftening,whileotherstatesareincreasingjobs.InWA,findingsuitablestaffisaresultofaconstraintongrowth.InVictoria,withthecutbacksannouncedtotheTAFEsector,jobsarelikelytosofteninthatstate.
Althoughtheinternationalstudentsub-sectorlooksweakoverthenextfewyears,continuedpopulationgrowthandtheinvestmentinskillsandtrainingprogramsmeansthattheoutlookforthissectorisforquitegoodgrowthoverthenextyear,withjobsgrowthrisingto1.9%annuallybyMay2013.Quarterlygrowthof0.2%isforecastforMay2013.
ACTUAL (Aug 12)TOTALJOBS:879(‘000)
2.0% growthinthelast12mths
1.1% growthsincethe
lastquarter
FORECAST TOTAL JOBS(‘000)
ANNUAL GROWTH IN
JOBS (%)
QUARTERLY GROWTH IN
JOBS (%)
Nov12 883 2.7 0.4
Feb13 885 2.4 0.2
May13 886 1.9 0.2
DRIVER SUMMARY
RealGDP
Popn.Aged14—65
Composite Index
Source: ABS/EMDA Model 2012
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0M
ay 1
3
Nov
02
May
02
Nov
03
May
03
Nov
04
May
04
Nov
05
May
05
Nov
06
May
06
Nov
07
May
07
Nov
08
May
08
Nov
09
May
09
Nov
10
May
10
Nov
11
May
11
May
12
Nov
12
F
AUS ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. AUS QUARTERLY GROWTH %
STATE ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. (YEAugust2012)
WA -1.0
SA 6.5
QLD 4.3
VIC 4.7
NSW -2.5
25
MYCAREER EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
GOVERNMENTPublicSectorcutsaretakingatollonthissector.
ACTUAL (Aug 12)TOTALJOBS:718(‘000)
0.6% growthinthelast12mths
-1.6% growthsincethe
lastquarter
FORECAST TOTAL JOBS(‘000)
ANNUAL GROWTH IN
JOBS (%)
QUARTERLY GROWTH IN
JOBS (%)
Nov12 712 -1.5 -0.7
Feb13 708 -3.3 -0.6
May13 705 -3.4 -0.4
DRIVER SUMMARY
Non-farmGDP
PrivateConsumption
EmploymentIntentions
Composite Index
Source: ABS/EMDA Model 2012
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
-6.0M
ay 1
3
Nov
02
May
02
Nov
03
May
03
Nov
04
May
04
Nov
05
May
05
Nov
06
May
06
Nov
07
May
07
Nov
08
May
08
Nov
09
May
09
Nov
10
May
10
Nov
11
May
11
May
12
Nov
12
F
AUS ANNUAL GROWTH % AUS QUARTERLY GROWTH %
STATE ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. (YEAugust2012)
WA -1.0
SA 6.5
QLD 4.3
VIC 4.7
NSW -2.5
STATE ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. (YEAugust2012)
WA 1.4
SA -0.5
QLD 3.6
VIC -1.8
NSW 2.8
ThemuchtalkedaboutPublicSectorreductionsappeartobegettingsometraction,withjobsdown1.6%intheAugust2012quarter.Inthatquarteralone,thesectorsufferedthebiggestfallinjobsin10years.
AtFederalGovernmentlevel,jobsaregrowingbutonlyby2.2%annually.Despiteatighteningofbudgetsinsomestates,jobsarealsostillgrowingannuallyatStateGovernmentlevel(2.8%)althoughtherateofgrowthhasslowed.LocalGovernmentadministrationisshowinggoodgrowth(7.1%)andtherearestillreportsofthissectorhavingdifficultyrecruitinginspecialisedareas.
InNSW,QueenslandandWA,jobsaregrowing,butinVictoriajobsarefalling.AnumberofstategovernmentshaveannouncedsignificantjobreductionsincludingNSW,Victoria,QueenslandandSA,andthiswillbeadampenerinthosegrowthstates.
SalariesandwagesinthePublicSectoraregrowingat3.4%,whichisslightlybelowtheAustralianaverage.Overall,wagesarestill22.8%higherthantheaverageforallworkers.
Lookingtothefuture,withsomeuncertaintystillintheeconomyandannouncedjobcutsbystateandfederalgovernments,employmentlevelsareforecasttofallintheGovernmentsector.ByMay2013,theannualrateofjobsgrowthisforecasttofallby3.4%.
26
MYCAREER EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
FINANCIAL SERVICESWiththeglobalsituationlookingalittlebetterjobsareforecasttogrowagain.
ACTUAL (AUG 12)TOTALJOBS:426(‘000)
2.7% growthinthelast12mths
-0.6% growthsincethe
lastquarter
FORECAST TOTAL JOBS(‘000)
ANNUAL GROWTH IN
JOBS (%)
QUARTERLY GROWTH IN
JOBS (%)
Nov12 425 0.3 -0.1
Feb13 427 -0.1 0.3
May13 429 0.3 0.7
DRIVER SUMMARY
HousingCap.Ex
Non-residentialBuilding
Construction
FinanceConfidence
Composite Index
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0M
ay 1
3
Nov
02
May
02
Nov
03
May
03
Nov
04
May
04
Nov
05
May
05
Nov
06
May
06
Nov
07
May
07
Nov
08
May
08
Nov
09
May
09
Nov
10
May
10
Nov
11
May
11
May
12
Nov
12
F
AUS ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. AUS QUARTERLY GROWTH %
STATE ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. (YEAugust2012)
WA* 2.7
SA* 3.6
QLD* 7.5
VIC -12.2
NSW 4.4
TheFinancialandInsuranceServicessectorenjoyedasolidyeartoAugust2012withjobsgrowth,up2.7%.Lendingisstartingtoincreaseagain,whileborrowingforbusinesspurposes,whichfellby8.2%duringtheheightoftheGFC,isgrowingat4.9%.Owner-occupierfinanceisgrowingat4.9%andhasbeenstayingstablearoundthisforfourmonths.Personalborrowingisstillfallingat1.5%,butontheotherhanditwasfalling12.4%attheheightoftheGFC.Thegrowthinbusinesslendinghasresultedinincreaseddemandforappropriatelyskilledstaff.
ThelevelofmanagedfundsinAustraliahasreached$1.8trillion,growingby1.5%intheJune2012quarter.Thisgrowthhasalsoresultedindemandforsuperannuationandwealthmanagementstaff.Theinsuranceindustryalsohadamuchbetteryear,withprofitrising41%inthe12monthstoJune2012.Thishasledtoashortageofskilledpeople,especiallyattheseniorlevel,asdemandhaspickedup.Anothertrendintheinsurancesub-sectorisfor
organisationstoincreasetheirtrainingofjuniorstafftoup-skillthem,readyformoreseniorrolesinthefuture.
NSWisthedominantstateinfinancialserviceswith43%ofjobsinthesectorheldinthatstate.Infact,NSWisreturningtogrowthafterquiteaslump.Meanwhile,theFinancialServicessectorinthesmallerstates,intermsofthenumberoffinanceworkers,isalsoimproving.ButreflectingtheweakeconomicgrowthinVictoria,positionshavefallenafterverystronggrowthin2010.
Althoughconfidencehasimprovedinthissector,itisstillwellbelowthe2010levels.Recentuncertainty,especiallyinthesecondhalfoflastyearandthefirsthalfofthisyear,hasbeenadampeneronjobs.Lookingtothefuture,improvedconfidenceandlendinglevelsincreasingmeanstheoutlookisalittlebetter,withjobsforecasttobegrowingby0.7%intheMay2013quarter.
Source: ABS/EMDA Model 2012
*2 year average shown due to sample size
27
MYCAREER EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
STATE ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. (YEAugust2012)
WA* 2.7
SA* 3.6
QLD* 7.5
VIC -12.2
NSW 4.4
FORECAST TOTAL JOBS(‘000)
ANNUAL GROWTH IN
JOBS (%)
QUARTERLY GROWTH IN
JOBS (%)
Nov12 1,112 4.0 0.2
Feb13 1,117 3.8 0.4
May13 1,126 2.6 0.9
DRIVER SUMMARY
Non-farmGDP
PrivateConsumption
FinanceConfidence
Composite Index
Source: ABS/EMDA Model 2012
PROPERTY & BUSINESS SERVICES Thissectorhascomebacktolifeaftertheslumpin2011.
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0M
ay 1
3
Nov
02
May
02
Nov
03
May
03
Nov
04
May
04
Nov
05
May
05
Nov
06
May
06
Nov
07
May
07
Nov
08
May
08
Nov
09
May
09
Nov
10
May
10
Nov
11
May
11
May
12
Nov
12
F
AUS ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. AUS QUARTERLY GROWTH %
STATE ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. (YEAugust2012)
WA 5.7
SA 1.0
QLD 0.3
VIC 4.8
NSW 3.3
ACTUAL (Aug 12)TOTALJOBS:1,110(‘000)
3.7% growthinthelast12mths
1.1% growthsincethe
lastquarter
ThissectoriscontinuingtoexpandaftertheGFC,evengrowingduringthereneweduncertaintyinthesecondhalfof2011andthefirsthalfof2012.Jobsarenowincreasingat3.7%fortheyearendedAugust2012.
Therealestatesub-sectorhasimprovedwithjobsup3.2%.Architectural,engineeringandtechnicalservicesarealsogrowing,up1.4%,buttherateofgrowthhasslowed.Demandonthearchitecturalside,however,issoft(-4.1%)asthepipelineofworkdriedupduringthesecondhalfof2011andinearly2012.Advertisingandsalesmanagerpositionsaregrowingagainafterasoft2011.ThedemandforICTprofessionalshasalsopickedup.
Allstatesareshowingsomegrowthinthissector.InVictoria,positionsaregrowingdespitetherelativelyweakeconomy.ThestrengthoftheWAeconomyisevidentwithjobsgrowingstrongly.
Inthatstate,propertyandbusinessprofessionalsareindemandtosupporttheMiningsectorandrelatedactivities.SAismoreslowandsteady.Queenslandisalittlesoft,reflectingtheweaknessintheConstructionsector.
Withbusinessconfidenceimprovingslightly,jobsgrowthisforecasttocontinuebutataslowerrate(2.6%)bytheyearendedMay2013.AstheeconomicsituationstabilisesandtheConstructionsectorcomesbacktolife,demandforconstructionrelatedprofessionalswillimproveagain.
28
MYCAREER EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
CONSTRUCTION & PROPERTY Thissectorcontinuestoslumpbutmidnextyearshouldseeanimprovement.
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
-6.0M
ay 1
3
Nov
02
May
02
Nov
03
May
03
Nov
04
May
04
Nov
05
May
05
Nov
06
May
06
Nov
07
May
07
Nov
08
May
08
Nov
09
May
09
Nov
10
May
10
Nov
11
May
11
May
12
Nov
12
F
STATE ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. (YEAugust2012)
WA -7.8
SA -8.9
QLD -3.7
VIC -6.9
NSW 3.5
Thissectorhasbeenfeelingtheeffectsofthereneweduncertainty,startingfromthemiddleoflastyear.OvertheyeartoAugust2012,jobsfell3.5%perannum.Confidenceinthissectorhasdroppedandisatalowpoint.Evenso,employersareexperiencingdifficultyrecruitingconstructionprojectmanagersforminingandresourceprojects.Constructioncostestimatorsforlargeprojectsarealsoinshortsupply.
Atthestatelevel,jobsgrowthisquitesubdued,evenintheverystronggrowthstatesofWAandQueensland,duetotheweakerresidentialmarket.JobsarelowerinVictoria,againthankstotheweakereconomy,asisthecasewithSA.NSWisshowingsomegrowthinjobs,thevalueofbuildingapprovalsgrowingstronglyinthatstate.
However,therearesignsofbettertimestocome.ThevalueofapprovalsinAustraliaisstartingtoriseagain,up1.7%toJuly
2012.Latein2011theywerefallingby12%.Thevalueofresidentialapprovalsremainsweak(-2.6%),butthiswasalsostrugglinginlate2011,fallingby15%.Onthenon-residentialside,aftertheslumpof2011whenthevalueofapprovalsfell7.6%,itisnowgrowingby8.1%.Inanothersignofbetterthingstocome,positionsforlanddevelopmentandsitepreparationstaffaregrowingagainafterbigfallsinthesecondhalfof2011.
Eventhoughthevalueofbuildingsapprovedhasimproved,invariablyittakestimetotranslateintoactualjobsgrowth,particularlywhenconfidenceislow.Ontopofthis,confidenceisevenmorecriticalinthissector,duetothelargecapitalcosts,andthatwillbeadampenerforawhile.Bythemiddleofnextyear,thankstoimprovedeconomicconditionsandlowerinterestrates,growthisforecasttoreturntothissector,albeitsubduedbyhistoricalstandards.
ACTUAL (Aug 12)TOTALJOBS:1,005(‘000)
-3.5% growthinthelast12mths
-1.7% growthsincethe
lastquarter
FORECAST TOTAL JOBS(‘000)
ANNUAL GROWTH IN
JOBS (%)
QUARTERLY GROWTH IN
JOBS (%)
Nov12 996 -4.1 -0.9
Feb13 997 -3.9 0.1
May13 1,001 -2.1 0.4
DRIVER SUMMARY
Non-farmGDP
PrivateConsumption
ResidentialInvestment
ConstructionConfidence
Composite Index
Source: ABS/EMDA Model 2012
AUS ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. AUS QUARTERLY GROWTH %
29
MYCAREER EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
TRANSPORT & STORAGEThissectorhasbeenstrugglingsincemidlastyear.
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
-6.0M
ay 1
3
Nov
02
May
02
Nov
03
May
03
Nov
04
May
04
Nov
05
May
05
Nov
06
May
06
Nov
07
May
07
Nov
08
May
08
Nov
09
May
09
Nov
10
May
10
Nov
11
May
11
May
12
Nov
12
F
STATE ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. (YEAugust2012)
WA -7.8
SA -8.9
QLD -3.7
VIC -6.9
NSW 3.5
STATE ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. (YEAugust2012)
WA 2.6
SA 0.7
QLD -1.5
VIC -8.7
NSW -8.7
Althoughtheeconomyisstillgrowing,jobsintheTransportandStoragesectorfellby4.9%intheyeartoAugust2012.Roadtransportpositionsaredownalittle,at1.3%,mainlyduetothecontinuedweaknessintheroadfreighttransport,butpassengertransportbybusisalittlebetter.Railtransportpositionsarealsoweakerandsoarejobsinairtransport.
Despitetheoverallweakjobsperformanceinthesector,therearestillareaswherethereisstrongdemand.OrganisationsthatprovidetransportandlogisticssupportfortheMiningsectorareexperiencingshortagesofsuitablyqualifiedstaff.Asareflectionofthemoreprudenttimes,logisticsmanagersthatcanreducecostsarealsoindemand.Therealsocontinuestobeashortageofsuitablyqualifiedtruckdrivers.
JobsatthestatelevelarealleithersoftordecliningexceptinWA,whereminingisstimulatingdemand.Overall,jobsarewelldowninthetwobiggeststates,NSWandVictoria.
Businessconfidenceinthissectorhasimprovedrecently(postJune2012)astheglobalsituationsettlesalittle,althoughthishasbeentemperedwiththesofteningincommodityprices.TheEMDAmodelisstillshowingsomegrowthbythemiddleofnextyear,butforecastgrowthissubduedbyhistoricalstandards.Theforecastisforanannualrateofdeclineof1.9%intheyeartoMay2013.However,quarterlygrowthisforecasttoincreaseto0.3%bythattimeasconditionsimprove.
FORECAST TOTAL JOBS(‘000)
ANNUAL GROWTH IN
JOBS (%)
QUARTERLY GROWTH IN
JOBS (%)
Nov12 553 -5.6 -1.0
Feb13 553 -3.6 0.1
May13 555 -1.9 0.3
ACTUAL (Aug 12)TOTALJOBS:558(‘000)
-4.9% growthinthelast12mths
-1.4% growthsincethe
lastquarter
DRIVER SUMMARY
BusinessCap.Ex
Exports
TandSConfidence
Composite Index
Source: ABS/EMDA Model 2012
AUS ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. AUS QUARTERLY GROWTH %
30
MYCAREER EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
MANUFACTURING Manufacturingremainsinthedoldrumswithchallengingtimesahead.
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
-4.0
-5.0M
ay 1
3
Nov
02
May
02
Nov
03
May
03
Nov
04
May
04
Nov
05
May
05
Nov
06
May
06
Nov
07
May
07
Nov
08
May
08
Nov
09
May
09
Nov
10
May
10
Nov
11
May
11
May
12
Nov
12
F
STATE ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. (YEAugust2012)
WA 9.2
SA -4.1
QLD -6.2
VIC 0.2
NSW -2.7
TheManufacturingsectorhascontinuedtodeclineinimportancetotheAustralianeconomyovertheyears,yetitstillaccountsfor8%oftheworkforce.UndertheweightofsoftdomesticdemandandthehighAustraliandollarmakingimportscheaper,jobsfell1.9%intheyeartoAugust2012.
Nevertheless,therearesomesuccessstoriesinmanufacturing.High-techmanufacturingandfoodmanufacturingaretwoareaswheretherehavebeensomegoodresults.Amajorchallengeisthatalthoughthereisdemandforworkshopmanagers,supervisorsandsometrades,itishardformanufacturerstocompetewithremunerationpackagesonofferfromtheresourcesandminingsectors.
Withtheweaknessinthissector,itisnotsurprisingthatwageshaverisenonly2.4%intheyeartoJune2012.Highlightingthedifficulty
inkeepingskilledstaffinmanufacturing,incomesareabouthalfthelevelintheMiningsector,sowhereskillscanbetransferred,thelureofahighsalarycanbeveryattractive.
Atthestatelevel,onlyWAisshowinganygrowthbutthisisasmallcomponentoftheManufacturingsector.InVictoria,manufacturingimprovedslightlywhileallotherstatesareshowingadecline.
Astothefuture,businessconfidenceinthissectorhasfallenrecentlyduetoacombinationofthestrongAustraliandollarandthesoftdemandconditions.This,inturn,willimpactonthejobsoutlook.However,confidenceisstillhigherthanduringthedepthsoftheGFC.ThenetresultistheEMDAmodelisshowingcontinuedjoblosses,withpositionsfallingby0.6%byMay2013.
AUS ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. AUS QUARTERLY GROWTH %
ACTUAL (Aug 12)TOTALJOBS:960(‘000)
-1.9% growthinthelast12mths
0.4% growthsincethe
lastquarter
FORECAST TOTAL JOBS(‘000)
ANNUAL GROWTH IN
JOBS (%)
QUARTERLY GROWTH IN
JOBS (%)
Nov12 957 -1.1 -0.3
Feb13 954 -0.7 -0.2
May13 950 -0.6 -0.4
DRIVER SUMMARY
PrivateBusinessCap.Ex
MachineryandEquipment
ExchangeRate
ManufacturingConfidence
Composite Index
Source: ABS/EMDA Model 2012
31
MYCAREER EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
GEN X, Y, BOOMERS, TWILIGHT CAREERSGenYemploymenttakesahitagain.
STATE ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. (YEAugust2012)
WA 9.2
SA -4.1
QLD -6.2
VIC 0.2
NSW -2.7
Withtherenewedconcernsabouttheglobaleconomy,jobsforGenerationYhavefallenagain.Thisisthetypicalpatternintimesofeconomicstress.
ThemarkethasalsocontractedforGeneration Y. Overall,jobsaredown0.9%.Fulltimejobsarefallingby1.2%andevenparttimejobsaredownaswell,at0.3%.Forthebettereducatedandmoreexperienced,however,jobsaregrowing.Managerialpositionsareexpandingat4.4%,whileprofessionalpositionsaregrowingat3.1%.Thelossesareattheunskilledendofthemarket,withpositionsforlabourersdown6.8%.
Generation X: Overall,jobsarestillgrowingforGenerationXat0.8%.Fulltimejobsareup0.5%,whileparttimerolesarerising1.6%.Professionalpositionsaregrowingat3.3%andmanagerialrolesareup1.9%.LiketheirGenYcounterparts,itistheunskilledjobsthatarefalling,down2.4%.
Boomers: Forthissegment,jobsaregrowingby0.3%only,withfulltimejobsup0.2%andparttimerolesup0.5%.Managerialpositionsareup0.6%,whileprofessionalpositionsareonlygrowingat0.3%.Thejobmarketatthelessskilledendissoft.
Thefastestgrowingsegmentcontinuestobe Twilight Careers.Thisgrouphasgrownforyearsandtheynownumber543,000workers,whichisarecord.Infact,overthelastdecade,onein10jobscreatedhasgonetoaTwilightCareerworker.Thesegmentiscurrentlygrowingjobsat8.3%,arateofgrowththathasactuallypickedup.Fulltimepositionsaregrowingat8.1%,with285,000nowemployedfulltime,whileparttimerolesareup8.4%.Managerialpositionsaregrowingatarateof5.6%,whileprofessionalpositionsaregrowingstrongly,up11.2%.Evenlabourerpositionsaregrowing,at3.8%.
JOBS GROWTH % p.a. TWILIGHT CAREERS (63+) BOOMERS (43—63) GEN X (30-42) GEN Y (16-29)
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
Aug
12
Aug
01
Feb
01
Aug
02
Feb
02
Aug
03
Feb
03
Aug
04
Feb
04
Aug
05
Feb
05
Aug
06
Feb
06
Aug
07
Feb
07
Aug
08
Feb
08
Aug
09
Feb
09
Aug
10
Feb
10
Feb
11
Feb
12
Aug
11
32
MYCAREER EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
SUMMARYSubduedjobsgrowthisforecastforthefirsthalfof2013.
SAhasbeeninthedoldrums,butquarterlygrowthof0.2%isforecastbyAugust2013.
ThecontinuedgrowthintheMiningandrelatedsectorsprovidesaboost,althoughsoftercommoditypriceswilldampengrowth.
AUSTRALIA
NEW SOUTH WALES
Astheglobalsituationimproves,areturntoslowjobsgrowthisforecast,withjobsgrowingby0.5%intheAugust2013quarter.
BusinessemploymentintentionsarestillpositiveandtheoutlookisforjobsgrowthtopickupbyAugust2013to0.4%.
VICTORIA Afteraflat2012,2013islookingbetterforVictoria.
QUEENSLAND
Afteraflat2012,fasterjobsgrowthisforecasttoreturnin2013,withjobgrowingby0.6%intheAugust2013quarter.
WESTERN AUSTRALIA
SofteningcommoditypriceswillnotderailjobsgrowthinWA.
SOUTH AUSTRALIA
AUSTRALIA FULL TIME & PART TIME
PROFESSIONAL /MANAGERS, AUSTRALIA
PROFESSIONAL /MANAGERS,
NSW
Fulltimejobsaregrowing,butonlyjust.Bettergrowthisexpected.
Thissectorhasreturnedtogrowthandmoreisexpectedover2013.
AfteraflatAugust2012quarter,areturntogrowthisforecastbytheNovemberquarter.
PROFESSIONAL /MANAGERS,
VIC
PROFESSIONAL /MANAGERS,
QLD
PROFESSIONAL /MANAGERS,
WA
PROFESSIONAL /MANAGERS,
SA
DespiteoverallweakjobnumbersinVictoria,thissegmentisgrowingagain.
Afterasolid2012,acontinuedpick-upindemandisforecastduring2013.
Thissectorreallyslowedmid2012but2013isexpectedtobealittlebetter.
33
MYCAREER EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
SUMMARY
ENGINEERING
MINING
INFORMATION & COMMUNICATION
TECHNOLOGY
RETAIL
TOURISM & HOSPITALITY
MEDIA & MARKETING
HUMAN RESOURCES & RECRUITMENT
Ashortageofengineerscontinues,especiallyinMiningrelatedsectors.
Therecentsofteningincommoditypriceswilldampenbutnotderailjobsgrowth.
TheICTindustryisforecasttocontinuetogrow,withjobsgrowingat0.9%p.a.byMay2013.
Thissectorhasbeeninthedoldrumsbuttherearesignsofimprovement.
Thetourismmarkethasbeenweakbuttherearesignsofimprovement.
Thissectorstalledinmid2012,withaslowrecoveryforecastfor2013.
Afteraverystrongfirsthalfof2012,mid2012wassoftandtheoutlookisareturntogrowth.
HEALTH & COMMUNITY
SERVICES
Thissectorcontinuestogrowasithasdoneinthelast10years.
EDUCATION
GOVERNMENT
FINANCIAL SERVICES
PROPERTY & BUSINESS SERVICES
CONSTRUCTION & PROPERTY
TRANSPORT & STORAGE
MANUFACTURING
THE GENERATIONS
Thissectorhasreturnedtogrowthafterapoor2011,butonlyverymodestgrowthisforecast.
PublicSectorcutsaretakingatollonthissectorandfurtherreductionsareexpected.
Withtheglobalsituationlookingalittlebetter,jobsareforecasttogrowagain.
Thissectorhascomebacktolifeaftertheslumpof2011.
Thissectorcontinuestoslumpbutbymidnextyearshouldseeanimprovement.
Withtherenewedglobaluncertainty,thissectorslowedbutisforecasttocomeoutofthedoldrums.
ThissectorcontinuestostruggleundertheweightofastrongAustraliandollarandmorejoblossesareexpected.Despiteallthis,thesectorstillemploysjustunder1,000,000Australians.
ThejobmarkethasslowedforGenerationY,butjobsforTwilightCareersarerocketingalong.
34
MYCAREER EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
CANDIDATE ENVIRONMENT INDEXTheCEIisflatatthemoment.
Tohelprecruitersbetterunderstandtheemploymentmarket,MyCareerdevelopedtheCandidateEnvironmentIndex(CEI),amathematicalindexoflabourdemandandsupplyforAustraliaandthemainlandstates.TheCEImeasuresthestrengthofthecandidateenvironmentbycombiningemploymentintentions,fulltimejobschangeandjobvacancies.Itgivestherecruitmentindustryaninsightintothestateofthelabourmarketasmeasuredbytheavailabilityofcandidates.
Whentheindexisabovezero,thelabourmarketisclassifiedas“candidateshort”.Inthesecircumstances,recruiterswillexperiencegreaterdifficultyfindingqualifiedcandidates.Whentheindexfallsbelowzerothelabourmarketisclassifiedas“candidaterich”,wherebycandidatesoutnumberjobsandthereversesituationapplies.However,evenatthesetimesthereareoftencertainskillsthatarestillinshortsupply.Anexampleofthisisintheareaofspecialisthealthcarestaff.
TheCEIdemonstratedtheshortageofsuitablyskilledworkersthroughouttheboominAustraliafrom2002/03to2007.ThentheGFChitandtheimmediateimpactcouldbeseen.Veryquicklytherebecameanoversupplyoflabourandtheindexplummeted.EvenatthattimetherewerepocketsofskillsshortagesinareassuchastheHealthsectorandMiningsectorrelatedcategories.AustraliathenemergedveryquicklyfromtheGFCin2010andaskillsshortagewasbecomingalltooapparentagain.Recently,withtherenewedconcernovertheglobaleconomy,amoodofcautionhassweptacrossbusinessesandthishasresultedintheCEIsofteningtoazeroposition.Thisisunusualandhighlightsthestallednatureofthejobmarket,neithergrowingmuchnorshrinkingmucheither.Evenwiththemarketinastalledposition,therecontinuestobeareasofskillsshortages,especiallyintheMining,EducationandHealthandCommunityServicessectors.
Feb
03
Aug
02
Feb
04
Aug
03
Feb
05
Aug
04
Feb
06
Aug
05
Feb
07
Aug
06
Feb
08
Aug
07
Feb
09
Aug
08
Feb
10
Aug
09
Feb
11
Aug
10
Feb
12
Aug
11
Aug
12
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
-10.0
-20.0
-30.0
-40.0
CANDIDATE SHORT (INDEX ABOVE ZERO)
CANDIDATE OVERSUPPLY (INDEX UNDER ZERO)
AUSTRALIA CANDIDATE ENVIRONMENT INDEX
35
MYCAREER EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
CANDIDATE ENVIRONMENT INDEXTheCEIsatthestatelevelaremixed.
TheCandidateEnvironmentIndexesatthestatelevelaremixed.NSWisshowingaslightimprovement.InVictoria,theindexisnegativebutithasstoppedfalling.InQueenslandtheIndexhassoftenedbutisstillpositive.InSAtheIndexisweakandsoftening,indicatinganoversupplyofcandidates.OnlyinWAistheindexstrong,buteveninWAtheindexisbelowthe2010peaks.
NSW CANDIDATE ENVIRONMENT INDEX
VIC CANDIDATE ENVIRONMENT INDEX
QLD CANDIDATE ENVIRONMENT INDEX
WA CANDIDATE ENVIRONMENT INDEX
SA CANDIDATE ENVIRONMENT INDEX
80.0
30.0
-20.0
-70.0
Nov
02
May
04
Aug
03
Nov
05
Feb
05
May
07
Aug
06
Nov
08
Feb
08
May
10
Aug
09
Nov
11
Feb
11
Aug
12
CANDIDATE SHORT
CANDIDATE OVERSUPPLY
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
-20.0
-40.0
Nov
02
May
04
Aug
03
Nov
05
Feb
05
May
07
Aug
06
Nov
08
Feb
08
May
10
Aug
09
Nov
11
Feb
11
Aug
12
CANDIDATE SHORT
CANDIDATE OVERSUPPLY
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
-20.0
-40.0
-60.0
Nov
02
May
04
Aug
03
Nov
05
Feb
05
May
07
Aug
06
Nov
08
Feb
08
May
10
Aug
09
Nov
11
Feb
11
Aug
12
CANDIDATE SHORT
CANDIDATE OVERSUPPLY
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
-20.0
-40.0
Nov
02
May
04
Aug
03
Nov
05
Feb
05
May
07
Aug
06
Nov
08
Feb
08
May
10
Aug
09
Nov
11
Feb
11
Aug
12
CANDIDATE SHORT
CANDIDATE OVERSUPPLY
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
-20.0
-40.0
-60.0
Aug
12
Aug
03
Nov
02
Feb
05
May
04
Aug
06
Nov
05
Feb
08
May
07
Aug
09
Nov
08
Feb
11
May
10
Nov
11
CANDIDATE SHORT
CANDIDATE OVERSUPPLY
36
MYCAREER EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
AUSTRALIAN SALARY REVIEWWagesgrowthisforecasttooutpaceinflationoverthenextyear.
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0A
ug 1
3
Feb
04
Aug
03
Feb
05
Aug
04
Feb
06
Aug
05
Feb
07
Aug
06
Feb
08
Aug
07
Feb
09
Aug
08
Feb
10
Aug
09
Feb
11
Aug
10
Feb
12
Aug
11
Aug
12
Feb
13
F
AUS ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. AUS QUARTERLY GROWTH %
Realwages–thatis,afterallowingforinflation-havecontinuedtogrowinAustralia,althoughtherateofgrowthhasslowedduetoreneweduncertainty.IntheyeartoMay2012,totalwagesgrewbyahealthy4.1%,withgrowthevenhigheramongstfulltimeearnersat4.6%.
Salarylevelscontinuetovaryandgrowatdifferentlevelsacrossarangeofindustriesandoccupations.Forexample,fulltimeworkersintheTourismsectorhavethelowestaveragepay,at$50,500perannum,whereasthoseintheMiningsectorearnwelloverdoublethat,at$119,100perannum.Withtheslowdownincommodityprices,growthinsalariesamongsttheMiningsectoreasedbackfrom7.7%inmid2010to5.8%byMay2012.Reflectingslightly
betterconditionsintheRetailsector,wagesgrowthhasimprovedto3.0%,whereaslastyearwagesgrowthinthissectorwasfallingbehindinflation.Salariesamongstprofessionalsaregrowingat3.7%,butamongstmanagerssalariesgrowthislowerat3.0%.Ontheotherhand,amongsttheunskilled,wageshavefallen0.3%intheyeartoJune2012.
Withemploymentintentionsremainingpositive(+4.4June2012)andtheeconomycontinuingtoexpand,thewagesoutlookisoneofgrowth.Theannualrateofwagesgrowthreached4.1%byAugust2013,consistentwiththelong-termaverageforAustralia.
ACTUAL (May 12)AVERAGEWEEKLYWAGES:$1,042
4.1% growthinthelast12mths
0.9% growthsincethe
lastquarter
FORECAST AVERAGE WEEKLY WAGES
($)
ANNUAL GROWTH
IN WAGES (%)
QUARTERLY GROWTH IN WAGES (%)
Aug12 1,050 3.8 0.8
Nov12 1,060 3.8 0.9
Feb13 1,071 3.7 1.0
May13 1,083 3.9 1.1
Aug13 1,093 4.1 0.9
DRIVER SUMMARY
GDP
NABJobIntentions
Composite Index
Source: ABS/EMDA Model 2012
37
MYCAREER EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
RETROSPECTIVE
ABS DEFN. (12Monthmovingaveragein1,000s)*
FEB 12 ACTUAL
AUG 12 ACTUAL
AUG 12 FORECAST*
% VARIANCE FROM ACTUAL
AUSTRALIA 11,440 11,472 11,467 0.0
NEWSOUTHWALES 3,597 3,603 3,602 0.0
VICTORIA 2,875 2,877 2,876 0.0
QUEENSLAND 2,340 2,342 2,352 -0.4
WESTERNAUSTRALIA 1,242 1,266 1,255 0.9
SOUTHAUSTRALIA 821 818 824 -0.7
AUSTRALIAFULLTIME 8,051 8,086 8,060 0.3
AUSTRALIAPARTTIME 3,389 3,412 3,390 0.6
PROFESSIONAL/MANAGERS—AUS 3,944 3,995 3,982 0.3
PROFESSIONAL/MANAGERS—NSW 1,299 1,305 1,314 -0.7
PROFESSIONAL/MANAGERS—VIC 1,024 1,038 1,029 0.9
PROFESSIONAL/MANAGERS—QLD 743 758 751 0.9
PROFESSIONAL/MANAGERS—WA 392 407 397 2.5
PROFESSIONAL/MANAGERS—SA 274 273 276 -1.1
ENGINEERING 151 153 155* -1.3
INFORMATION&COMMUNICATIONTECHNOLOGY
523 535 524* 2.1
RETAIL 1,223 1,211 1,219 -0.7
PROPERTY&BUSINESSSERVICES 1,076 1,110 1,084 2.4
MANUFACTURING 962 960 952 0.8
HEALTH&COMMUNITYSERVICES 1,330 1,356 1,348 0.6
CONSTRUCTION&PROPERTY 1,037 1,005 1,046 -3.9
EDUCATION 864 879 871 0.9
TRANSPORT&STORAGE 574 558 573 -2.6
FINANCIALSERVICES 427 426 431 -1.2
MINING 234 260 252 3.2
GOVERNMENT 732 718 745 -3.6
TOURISM&HOSPITALITY 771 765 768 -0.4
MEDIA&MARKETING 221 227 231* -1.7
HUMANRESOURCES&RECRUITMENT
129 130 135 -3.7
AUS.WAGES $1,032 $1,042 $1,039 0.3*ABS revised the historical series, forecasts reweighted to account for the change
38
MYCAREER EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
FULL TIME Peoplewhoworkatleast35hoursperweek.
PART TIME Peoplewhoworklessthan35hoursperweek.
OECD ECONOMIC GROWTH OrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment’seconomicgrowthforecast.
GDP (AUSTRALIA) ValueofgoodsandservicesproducedbytheAustralianeconomy.
NON-FARM GDPValueofgoodsandservicesproducedbytheAustralianeconomybutexcludingagriculture.
GSP (STATES) Valueofgoodsandservicesproducedatthestatelevel.
UNEMPLOYMENT Peoplelookingforeitherfulltimeorparttimework.
PRIVATE CONSUMPTION Valueofservicesandproductsboughtbyconsumers.
CAPITAL EXPENDITURE Valueofinvestmentincapitalitemssuchasbuildings,machinery,etc.
CONSTRUCTION CAP. EX. Valueofinvestmentinsuchitemsasroads,buildings,etc.
BUSINESS CAP. EX.Valueofinvestmentbybusinessincapitalitemssuchasplantandequipment.
HOUSING CAP. EX.Valueofinvestmentinhousing.
MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT Valueofinvestmentinmachineryandequipment.
RESIDENTIAL BUILDING Valueofinvestmentinresidentialbuildings,includingrenovations.
NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING Valueofinvestmentinbuildings,excludingresidential.
ENGINEERING CONSTRUCTION Valueofinvestmentinitemssuchasmines,roads,bridges,etc.
TRADE WEIGHTED INDEXAnindexoftheaveragevalueofthe$AUDcomparedwiththecurrenciesofAustralia’smajortradingpartners.
IMPORTS ValueofoverseasgoodsandservicesboughtbyAustralians.
EXPORTSValueofgoodsandservicessoldoverseasbyAustralia.
NAB JOB INTENTIONS MeasurebyNABofbusinesses’intentionstoemploy.
NAB BUSINESS CONFIDENCE MeasurebyNABofbusinessconfidence.
GLOSSARY OF TERMS
39
MYCAREER EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
METHODOLGYByanalysingthekeydriverscontributingtooverallstateandsectoremploymentchanges,theMyCareerEmploymentForecastprovidesemployersandrecruiterswiththebestgaugeofemploymentprospects.
EMDAemploysafour-stepprocess(seediagram),usingEMDAproprietarymethodstobuildemploymentforecastsforAustraliaandStates.ForecastsarealsobuiltforkeyindustriesasdefinedbytheAustralianBureauofStatistics.TheMyCareerEmploymentForecastisdifferentfromothermarketsentimentforecastsbecauseitforecaststheactualjobmarketintermsoftotaljobs.Ratherthanprovidinganindexunrelatedtotheactuallevelofjobs,ourforecastsgivetheindustryarealgaugeoffuturebusinessintentionsexpressedintermsofactualpersonsemployed.
HOW IT WORKSFirst,asystematicanalysisisundertakenatthenationallevelforeachindustrysectorandthemarketoverall.Thisanalysisidentifiesthemacro-factorsthatcontributetotheindustryandtotalemployment—thesearetermed“industrydrivers”.
Thesedriversincludemacro-economicvariablesandbusinessconfidenceinputssuchas:-
•PrivateConsumption
•GrossDomesticProduct
•BusinessConfidencebysector
•Populationforecasts
INDUSTRY DRIVERSUsingEMDA’sproprietarymethod,theexpectedemploymentismathematicallyderivedfromacombinationofindustrydrivers.Thisinvolvesthedevelopmentofacompositeindexofrelevantmacro-economicdriversandrealbusinessinputs.Inthiswayourforecastscombinethepowerofmacro-economicforecastingwithrealbusinessinputs.
•Australia•States•Industries•Expectations•EconomicForecasts
Identifyusingeconometricmethodsandmathematical“drivers”foreachindustryandtotaloverall.
DeriveNational,StateandIndustryforecasts.
FullreportavailableviaMyCareer.com.au
STEP 1DataAssembly
STEP 2DriverAnalysis
STEP 3IndustryForecasts
STEP 4Copy
40
MYCAREER EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
DISCLAIMER
MYCAREER EMPLOYMENT FORECASTPublishedbytheMarketingDepartmentofMyCareer,TheAgeandTheSydneyMorningHerald.
Allrightsreserved.NopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedorstoredinaretrievalsystemwithoutthepriorpermissionofFairfaxMedia.
Whileeveryefforthasbeenmadetoensureaccuracyofthedatainthisreport,FairfaxMediahasnotauditedthedatasourcesandthereforedoesnotacceptanyresponsibilityinrelationtofinancialand/orbusinessdecisionsbasedonthisinformation.
©EMDAThisreportiscopyright.Apartfromfairdealingforthepurposesofprivatestudy,researchorreview,aspermittedunderthecopyrightact,nopartmaybereproducedbyanyprocesswithoutwrittenpermission.InquiriesshouldbemadetoEMDA.
OwnershipofEMDA’sintellectualproperty(includingEMDAConsumerPositioningMaps,EMDAEconomicModellingMethods)remainswithEMDA.Whileeveryefforthasbeenmadetoensureaccuracyofthedatainthisreport,EMDAhasnotauditedthedatasourcesandthereforedoesnotacceptanyresponsibilityinrelationtofinancialand/orbusinessdecisionsbasedonthisinformation.
©EMDA2012
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSResearchandforecastsbyMichaelEmerson,EconomicandMarketDevelopmentAdvisers.
Projectmanagement,designandproductionbytheMarketingDepartmentofMyCareer.
MYCAREER EMPLOYMENT FORECAST