Post on 08-Jul-2020
Emerging Markets
Weekly Economic
Briefing
India’s growth outlook at risk from capital outflows
Underlying weaknesses in many emerging markets were highlighted in May when the US
Federal Reserve hinted at scaling back its quantitative easing programme. The Indian and
Brazilian currencies depreciated particularly sharply, and foreign capital flowed out. While
most emerging economies were affected to some extent, India was hit hard and is still
vulnerable to external shocks. A simulation run on the Oxford Economics’ Global
Economic Model suggests that another, substantial, negative confidence shock in India
would have a significant adverse impact on the economy. Even though net trade would
benefit from the resulting currency depreciation, overall GDP growth would slow to just
3.2% in 2014, with the level of GDP remaining more than 1% below the baseline even in
2016.
Investors reassess emerging market potential as era of cheap money draws to an end
In common with many other emerging markets, India has enjoyed rapid economic expansion over
much of the last decade. Its GDP grew by 8.7% a year on average between 2005 and 2010,
supported partly by strong capital inflows. Foreign investment inflows more than trebled from
around US$20bn in 2005 to over US$60bn by 2010. This was accompanied by an increase in
share prices of almost 150%. Other emerging markets experienced similar surges. But these
strong trends masked a number of underlying economic weaknesses, not least the growing
current account deficits. This became apparent when the US Federal Reserve hinted at the
possibility of scaling back its quantitative easing (QE) programme in May this year. Investors
scrambled to switch out of risky emerging market assets (where this was possible) to safer US
ones. Most emerging markets were affected, some more noticeably than others. India and Brazil
saw their exchange rates depreciate by 20-25% against the US dollar between May and August,
and the Turkish lira fell 12%.
1 November 2013
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Jan11 May11 Sep11 Jan12 May12 Sep12 Jan13 May13 Sep13
Emergers: Exchange rate vs US$Index (Jan 3, 2011 = 100)
Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
India
Brazil
Turkey
Fed
meeting
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Jan11 May11 Sep11 Jan12 May12 Sep12 Jan13 May13 Sep13
Emergers: Share pricesIndex (Jan 3, 2011 = 100)
Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
India
Brazil
Turkey
Fed
meeting
1 November 2013
Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing
The Indian currency fell to a historic low, and growing risk aversion was also reflected in a jump
in the three-month interbank rate of more than 300 basis points (bp) to nearly 11.6% in August.
India saw net capital outflows of US$10bn between June and August, versus net inflows of
US$15bn in the previous three months, representing a swing of US$25bn or 1.4% of GDP.
India is still vulnerable to external shocks…
While financial markets have stabilised somewhat over the past month or so, India is still not out
of the woods. It has a gaping current account deficit of around 5% of GDP, and annual GDP
growth has halved to around 4.5% compared with the period before the global financial crisis.
The economy remains vulnerable to capital outflows and therefore to events such as the start of
QE tapering or an increase in commodity prices. Even domestic factors such as weaker growth
than expected in Q3 could trigger another bout of capital outflows, which would have negative
knock-on effects for the rest of the economy.
We have used our Global Economic Model to quantify the effect of capital outflows on the Indian
economy resulting from a substantial negative confidence shock. To calibrate the scale of the
shock, we looked at previous episodes of capital outflows in various countries. We first
considered the impact of capital outflows in India, Brazil and Turkey after the Fed announced in
May that QE would be scaled back (without saying when the tapering would start). In all three
countries, there was an initial significant depreciation in the exchange rate and fall in share
prices. The Brazilian and Indian central banks both began to tighten monetary policy, despite
slowing growth, to contain inflationary pressures which were exacerbated by the currency
depreciation. We used this experience as a mild version of the scale of the shock that we wanted
to calibrate.
We also drew on the experience of the Thai economy following capital outflows during the Asian
currency crisis in 1997-98. Foreign investment in Thailand fell by around 70% between1997 and
2000, accompanied by a fall of around 45% in share prices. The exchange rate, which had
previously been pegged to the US$, depreciated by around 70%, and the central bank increased
the policy interest rate from 8% to 17%. Given that India has a floating exchange rate and has
7
8
9
10
11
12
Jan11 May11 Sep11 Jan12 May12 Sep12 Jan13 May13 Sep13
India: 3-month interbank rate%
Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
Fed
meeting
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
India: Current account balance % of GDP
Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
1 November 2013
Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing
built up some foreign reserves, we concluded that the scale of the shock in India would be less
severe.
Taking the middle ground between these two episodes, we simulated a confidence shock in India
at the beginning of 2014. Given the country’s underlying economic weaknesses, we assumed
that confidence would not return to pre-shock levels until mid-2017. The effects would be most
negative in the first quarter, reflecting the tendency of financial markets to react particularly
strongly at first, before gradually becoming less negative over subsequent quarters.
The fall in confidence causes investors to withdraw assets from India. Our scenario suggests that
foreign investment falls by 20%, accompanied by a similar decline in share prices. A sell-off in
financial markets causes the currency to depreciate by 15% against the US$. This raises the
price of imported goods such as oil and other commodities, pushing CPI inflation above 11%
(compared to 7-8% in our baseline forecast). To curb inflation, the central bank raises the policy
rate by up to 300bp above the baseline. The combination of higher interest rates, high inflation
and a fall in confidence causes both households and businesses to scale back spending.
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
India: Exchange rateINR/US$
Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
Baseline
Scenario
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
India: Consumer price index
% year
Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
Baseline
Scenario
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
India: Share prices
2010=100
Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
Scenario
Baseline
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
India: 10-year government bond yield
%
Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
Baseline
Scenario
1 November 2013
Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing
Consumer spending falls by 3% relative to the baseline, while investment falls by more than 6%.
Although the weaker currency leads to a decline in imports and increase in exports, this is not
enough to prevent a fall in overall GDP relative to the baseline. Growth slows to 3.2% in 2014
(from our baseline forecast of 4.5%) and GDP remains around 1% below the baseline even by
the end of 2016.
…highlighting the urgent need for timely reform
This scenario highlights India’s vulnerability to a high inflation/low growth spiral and the need for
effective policy action to avoid it. We do not think that short-term reforms will be enough to secure
completely India’s economic environment, but there is scope to minimise the negative impact of a
confidence shock in the near future.
The new central bank governor has already taken some encouraging steps in this regard. He has
introduced measures to encourage the repatriation of funds by non-resident Indians. He also
raised the repo rate by 50bp over the past two months while lowering the Marginal Standing
Facility (MSF) rate by 150bp, with the aim of curbing inflation as well as bringing the monetary
policy stance back to “normal”, after the extraordinary measures taken in July.
While these measures are a step in the right direction, they need to be supplemented by
government action to reduce food and fuel subsidies, to develop infrastructure, improve the
business environment and make India more attractive for foreign investors. We do not expect any
significant progress in this direction in the coming months, especially in light of the upcoming
general elections in May 2014, ahead of which the government is eager to steer clear of
unpalatable economic reforms.
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
India: Central bank policy rate
%
Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
Baseline
Scenario
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
India: GDP
% year
Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
Baseline
Scenario
1 November 2013
Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing
Latest data
Recent Data Releases
Previous month
Latest Comment
China – Official Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
– HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
51.1
50.2
51.4
50.9
The official PMI rose to its highest level since March 2012. New export orders have now risen for three successive months, prompting manufacturers to increase output.
Brazil – Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
49.9
50.2
The PMI expanded for the first time in four months but export orders are still down, falling at the fastest pace since July.
India – HSBC Manufacturing PMI
(Oct)
49.6 49.6 The manufacturing sector remains very weak, with no immediate prospect of relief in sight.
Korea – Exports (Oct)
– Imports (Oct)
– Trade balance (12m total)
– Industrial Output (Sep)
– Wholesale & Retail Trade (Sep)
– HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
-1.5% y/y
-3.6% y/y
$41.0bn (Sep)
1.6% m/m
3.6% y/y
0.5% y/y
49.7
7.3% y/y
5.1% y/y
$42.2bn (Oct)
-2.1% m/m
0.2% y/y
-1.9% y/y
50.2
The export recovery in Korea remains patchy, but imports rose again in October (they had declined for six consecutive quarters until Q3). This suggests that domestic demand may be starting to build momentum. Wholesale and retail trade volumes fell by 0.7% y/y in Q3 though, so the recovery is still fragile. The manufacturing PMI expanded for the first month in five on stronger export orders.
Mexico – Exports (Sep)
– Imports (Sep)
– Trade balance (12m total)
5.9% y/y
4.0% y/y
-$5.4bn (Aug)
4.3% y/y
2.7% y/y
-$4.9bn (Sep)
Export growth accelerated from 1.8% y/y in Q2 to 4.5% y/y in Q3 on stronger demand from the US, particularly for cars.
Russia – Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 49.4 51.8 New orders rose at the fastest pace for eight months, but export orders continued to fall.
Turkey – Exports (Sep) (s.adj)
– Trade balance (12m total)
- Business Confidence (Oct)
- Capacity Utilisation (Oct)
0.2% m/m
-8.6% y/y
-$95.3bn
108.6
75.0
2.7% m/m
1.3% y/y
-$95.1bn
111.9
75.8
The central bank business confidence measure and the HSBC PMI continued to improve. Exports picked up in Q3 but imports fell by 7.4% q/q, the biggest drop since Q1 2009. A continuation of this trend would help rein in the trade deficit.
South Africa - Exports (Sep)
- Trade balance (12m total, Sep)
-5.5% y/y
-$17.0bn
-2.7% y/y
-$17.2bn
Exports remain very weak but higher commodity prices boosted mineral exports.
Taiwan – GDP (Q3) (s.adj)
– HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
0.6% q/q
2.4% y/y
52.0
0.1% q/q
1.8% y/y
53.0
Investment fell sharply in Q3 and export volumes remained modest, cancelling out the improvement in private spending. The PMI rose at the fastest pace since March 2012.
Thailand – Industrial Output (Sep)
(s.adj)
Private Spending (Sep, s.adj)
Private Investment (Sep, s.adj)
1.3% m/m
-1.9% y/y
0.7% y/y
-3.4% y/y
-2.6% m/m
-3.4% y/y
-6.1% y/y
-3.3% y/y
Industrial output fell for a fifth successive quarter in Q3, reflecting subdued export demand and the temporary impact of flooding. Private spending and investment remain weak.
Singapore – Industrial Output ex
biomed (Sep, s.adj)
-0.9% m/m
5.3% y/y
5.7% m/m
12.0% y/y
Electronics output grew by 9.7% y/y in Q3, the fastest pace since Q1 2011.
1 November 2013
Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing
Events
Monetary policy meetings in past week
Key rate (now) Outcome Comment
Oct 25th – Mexico 3.5% (Target rate) Down 25bp The central bank cut the interest rate unexpectedly
for the third time this year to boost economic activity. But the bank acknowledged that there were signs that growth was beginning to improve, adding that ‘additional cuts to the reference interest rate target would not be advisable in the foreseeable future’.
Oct 29th – India 7.75% (Repo rate) Up 25bp As expected, the Reserve bank increased the repo
rate for a second successive month. The increase will be partly offset by a 150bp decline in the MSF rate over the last two months and a fall in the interbank rate since early September. Nevertheless the structure of interest rates is now significantly higher than in early July. The policy dilemma between tackling inflation and currency volatility on the one hand, and stimulating growth on the other, is difficult to balance.
Oct 29th – Hungary 3.4% (Base rate) Down 20bp The National Bank of Hungary cut the interest rate
for the 14th time since August 2012, bringing it down from 7% to a record low of 3.4%. We expect interest rates to be cut to 3.25% this year with risks skewed to further easing, provided investor sentiment remains favourable.
For more information contact Clare Howarth (chowarth@oxfordeconomics.com) or Sarah Fowler (sfowler@oxfordeconomics.com)
1 November 2013
Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing
Asia
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
US$bn (seasonally adjusted)
Source: Korea Customs Service / Oxford Economics
Korea: Exports
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
% year
Korea
(Wholesale/Retail)
Source: Haver Analytics
Emerging Asia: Retail sales & consumption
Volumes (3 month
moving average)
China
Thailand
35
40
45
50
55
60
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
50 = expansion / contraction line
Source: China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing / Markit
China: Manufacturing PMI
Official PMI
HSBC PMI
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
2005=100 (seasonally adjusted)
Taiwan
Source: Haver Analytics / Oxford Economics
Korea, Taiwan & Thailand: Industrial output
Thailand
Korea
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
% year (3 month average)
Thailand
Source: Haver Analytics
Emerging Asia: Monthly investment indicators
Korea
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
27
30
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
US$bn (seasonally adjusted)
Source: Haver Analytics
Emerging Asia: Exports by destination
China & HK
US
Leading EU
Japan
Exports of Korea, Thailand
and Taiwan
1 November 2013
Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing
Asia
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13
Index (Dec 30, 2010 = 100)
China
Source: Haver Analytics
Emergers: Exchange rates v US$
India
Indonesia
Korea
appreciation
-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
45
60
75
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
% year (3 month average)
Source: Biro Pusat Statistik
Indonesia: Exports & imports (US$)
Imports
Exports
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
%
Policy interest rate
Source: Bank Indonesia
Indonesia: Interest rates & CPI inflation
CPI inflation
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
% year
Repo rate
Source: Oxford Economics
India: Interest rates and wholesale prices
Mumbai 3-month
offered rate
Wholesale prices
(WPI) inflation
40
45
50
55
60
65
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
50 = expansion/contraction breakeven point
Source: Markit
India: HSBC Manufacturing PMI
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
% year (3 month average)
Source: Oxford Economics
India: Manufacturing & electricity output
Manufacturing
Electricity
1 November 2013
Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing
Latin America
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
US$ bn
Source: Haver Analytics
Brazil: Investment inflows & current account
12 month total
FDI inflows
Portfolio inflowsCurrent account
deficit
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
% year
Exports
Imports
Source: Haver Analytics
Mexico: Exports & imports
3 month moving average (US$)
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
% year (3 month moving average)
Source: Haver Analytics
Argentina: GDP proxy & industrial output
GDP proxy
Industrial output
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
% year
Source: Haver Analytics
Brazil: Bank lending
Industry & commerce sectors
Total private
sector
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
%
Chile
Source: Haver Analytics
Latin America: Short-term interest rates
Mexico
Brazil
Colombia
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13
Index (Dec 30,2010 = 100)
Chile
Source: Haver Analytics
Emergers: Exchange rates v US$
Brazil
depreciation
ArgentinaMexico
1 November 2013
Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing
Emerging Europe
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
% balance
Source: Haver Analytics
Central & East. Europe: Industrial confidence
Poland
Czech
Hungary
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
% year
Russia
Source: Haver Analytics
Central & Eastern Europe: Bank lending
Poland
Czech
Hungary
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
2010=100 (seasonally adjusted)
Slovak
Source: Haver Analytics
Central Europe: Merchandise exports in EUR
Czech
Hungary
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
% balance
Source: Haver Analytics
Central & East. Europe: Consumer confidence
Poland
Czech
Hungary
0
4
8
12
16
20
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
%
Czech
Source: Haver Analytics
Central & Eastern Europe: Interest rates
Poland
Hungary
Romania
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
% year
Poland
Source: Haver Analytics
Central & Eastern Europe: Consumer prices
Czech
Russia
Hungary
1 November 2013
Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing
Rest of the world & financial developments
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
US$bn (seasonally adjusted)
Exports
Source: Haver Analytics
Turkey: Merchandise trade
Imports
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
50 = expansion / contraction line
Source: Haver Analytics
South Africa: PMI
60
63
66
69
72
75
78
81
84
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
% (seasonally adjusted)
Source: Haver Analytics
Turkey: Manufacturing capacity utilisation
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13
Index (Dec 30, 2010 = 100)
Source: Haver Analytics
Emergers: Exchange rates
Turkey (v Euro)
depreciation
S. Africa (v US$)
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13
%
Poland
Source: Haver Analytics
Emergers: 10 year government bond yields
Brazil
South Africa
Turkey
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
2007=100 (rebased)
Source: Haver Analytics
World: Commodity prices
Oil
CRB
foodstuffs
CRB raw
industrial
materials
Copper
1 November 2013
Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing
China Brazil Korea India Mexico Russia Turkey Taiwan Poland
2012
Sep 9.2 -0.6 -1.8 -0.7 2.9 2.0 3.6 5.2 -1.6
Oct 9.6 1.2 -0.7 8.4 1.0 1.8 1.0 2.4 0.7
Nov 10.1 -0.9 2.2 -1.0 2.5 1.9 3.9 5.8 -1.7
Dec 10.3 -1.6 4.1 -0.6 0.2 1.4 -1.2 4.3 -4.5
2013
Jan 9.9 3.3 0.6 2.5 -0.4 -0.8 2.1 1.4 -2.3
Feb 9.9 -0.6 -1.6 0.6 0.3 -2.1 3.9 5.3 -2.3
Mar 8.9 1.4 -1.4 3.5 0.3 2.6 1.2 -1.7 0.8
Apr 9.3 3.7 -1.4 1.5 -1.6 2.3 3.1 -1.8 -0.4
May 9.2 2.0 -2.8 -2.5 -1.3 -1.4 0.5 -1.0 -0.9
Jun 8.9 4.2 -1.0 -1.8 -1.6 0.1 4.0 1.5 4.6
Jul 9.7 0.7 -0.5 2.8 -1.3 -0.7 4.4 0.6 2.7
Aug 10.4 -0.7 3.6 0.6 -0.4 0.1 0.5 0.3 2.7
Sep 10.2 - 0.2 - - 0.3 - 0.1 5.0
Industrial Production
Percentage changes on a year earlier unless otherwise stated
China Brazil Korea India Mexico Russia Turkey Taiwan Poland
2012
Oct 1.7 5.4 2.1 9.8 4.6 6.5 7.8 2.3 3.4
Nov 2.0 5.5 1.6 9.9 4.2 6.5 6.4 1.6 2.8
Dec 2.5 5.8 1.4 10.6 3.6 6.6 6.2 1.6 2.4
2013
Jan 2.0 6.2 1.5 10.8 3.3 7.1 7.3 1.1 1.7
Feb 3.2 6.3 1.4 10.9 3.6 7.3 7.0 3.0 1.3
Mar 2.1 6.6 1.3 10.4 4.3 7.0 7.3 1.4 1.0
Apr 2.4 6.5 1.2 9.4 4.6 7.2 6.1 1.0 0.8
May 2.1 6.5 1.0 9.3 4.6 7.4 6.5 0.7 0.5
Jun 2.7 6.7 1.0 9.9 4.1 6.9 8.3 0.6 0.2
Jul 2.7 6.3 1.4 9.6 3.5 6.5 8.9 0.0 1.1
Aug 2.6 6.1 1.3 9.5 3.5 6.5 8.2 -0.8 1.1
Sep 3.1 5.9 0.8 9.8 3.4 6.1 7.9 0.8 1.0
Oct - - 0.7 - - - - - -
Consumer prices
Percentage changes on a year earlier unless otherwise stated
1 November 2013
Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing
China Brazil Korea India Mexico Russia Turkey Taiwan Poland
2012
Oct 11.6 -1.7 1.0 1.7 5.2 2.9 19.8 -1.9 12.7
Nov 2.9 -6.0 3.9 -0.1 5.3 -2.5 13.2 0.8 5.2
Dec 14.0 -10.8 -6.0 0.6 4.2 -4.0 4.9 8.9 -1.7
2013
Jan 25.0 -1.1 10.9 1.2 -0.7 -1.6 7.4 21.6 9.4
Feb 21.7 -13.8 -8.6 2.3 -0.9 -6.9 7.8 -15.8 5.4
Mar 10.0 -7.6 0.0 5.9 1.7 -4.8 2.3 3.2 -2.9
Apr 14.7 5.4 0.2 1.9 -0.7 -1.0 -3.5 -1.9 9.9
May 1.0 -6.0 3.1 -0.7 1.7 -9.8 0.7 0.7 1.8
Jun -3.1 9.2 -1.0 -4.9 4.4 2.6 -3.4 8.7 10.7
Jul 5.1 -0.9 2.6 10.4 3.4 5.5 -1.5 1.6 12.3
Aug 7.2 -4.3 7.7 13.2 5.9 2.3 -8.6 3.6 9.7
Sep -0.3 5.0 -1.5 11.2 4.3 - 1.3 -7.0 -
Oct - - 7.3 - - - - - -
Exports (US dollars)
Percentage changes on a year earlier unless otherwise stated
China Brazil Korea India Mexico Russia Turkey Taiwan Poland
2012
Oct 2.3 1.7 1.6 8.5 6.5 12.0 -2.1 -1.8 4.0
Nov 0.0 -2.5 0.9 5.7 8.7 2.8 1.0 0.1 0.8
Dec 6.1 -4.5 -5.3 8.3 2.3 6.3 0.4 1.5 -1.4
2013
Jan 29.0 14.7 4.0 6.3 6.6 13.2 8.4 22.2 4.0
Feb -15.2 3.1 -10.4 2.8 2.7 7.5 14.5 -8.5 -5.2
Mar 14.0 1.4 -2.3 -3.4 4.8 1.2 3.2 0.2 -3.1
Apr 16.8 15.7 -0.5 10.2 0.3 12.9 15.3 -8.2 0.6
May -0.3 4.0 -4.6 6.0 4.2 -6.2 7.3 -8.0 -4.7
Jun -0.7 1.5 -3.0 -0.8 5.3 5.0 5.9 6.8 3.0
Jul 10.9 25.2 3.2 -6.4 5.8 1.5 7.1 -7.7 7.5
Aug 7.1 5.4 1.0 -1.6 4.0 -5.3 0.7 -1.2 6.7
Sep 7.4 8.0 -3.6 -18.1 2.7 - -0.2 -0.7 -
Oct - - 5.1 - - - - - -
Imports (US dollars)
Percentage changes on a year earlier unless otherwise stated