Post on 20-Dec-2015
Opening Policy Windows
➲ Problem stream● Defining existing condition as a problem● Getting policy makers to accept definition
➲ Policy Stream● Develop consensus around policies
necessary to solve problem➲ Politics stream
● National mood; leading politicians accept gravity of problem and willing to implement necessary policies
➲ What does your project focus on?
Problem Stream
➲ What is the conventional and alternative problem definition for:
● VCAT● Alternatives to development in Ecuador● CASSE● Salmon restoration
➲ How do we get policy makers to accept these definitions?
Policy Stream: Tools
➲ Prescription➲ Payments➲ Penalties➲ Property rights➲ Persuasion➲ Power
➲ Concrete examples from each of your projects?
Policy and property rights
➲ Excludability and property rights➲ Property rights as a bundle➲ Changing conditions and the need for
changing property rights● Externalities in a full world● types of property rights
• Property rule
• Privilege
• Inalienability
Every independent policy goal must have an independent
policy instrument➲ What should our policy goals be?
● Sustainable scale● Just distribution● Efficient allocation● Others?
➲ Example of scale policy detrimental to distribution?
➲ Examples of policies that meet several goals?
Attain necessary degree of macro control with minimum sacrifice of
micro-level freedom and variability● Incentives (payments, penalties) vs.
prescription● Examples for scale?● Market mechanisms in theory allow
individuals to set MC=MB● Constant incentive to innovate
Attain necessary degree of macro control with minimum sacrifice of
micro-level freedom and variability
Marginal
abatement
costs
Firm 1 Firm 2 Firm 3
First 20% $50,000 $10,000 $25,000
2nd 20% $200,000 $25,000 $50,000
3rd 20% $400,000 $50,000 $100,000
4th 20% $800,000 $100,000 $175,000
Final 20% $1600,000 $500,000 $200,000
Leave a Margin of Error When Dealing with the Biophysical Environment
➲ Uncertainty and Irreversibility➲ Precautionary principle➲ Is democracy appropriate when we live
close to the edge?➲ Examples from projects?
● Europe vs. US● WTO● New chemicals?● 4Ps: Polluter Pays Precautionary Principle
(financial assurance bonds)
Start from historical conditions➲ Market system➲ Existing property rights
● CAT● PES● Pollution
➲ Public property rights➲ Government regulation➲ Role of courts in restricting property
rights● Lake Tahoe
➲ Sovereignty and international policies
Adaptive management
➲ Uncertainty➲ Evolution (ecological and technological)➲ Need to change our policies as we learn
more and as conditions change● Treat policies as scientific experiments
➲ e.g. Montreal Protocol, Kyoto?➲ How can this be built into your projects?
Institutions at the scale of the problem (subsidiarity)
➲ Spatial distribution of ecosystem services
➲ Decentralized decision making for decentralized problems
● The market is a decentralized decision making process for activities that affect only individuals
➲ Globalization➲ Examples from projects?
Policy sequence
➲ Scale● determines how much there is to be
distributed➲ Distribution
● Pareto optimal outcome possible from any initial distribution
● Must be decided before allocation➲ Allocation
Changing Complex Systems
➲ Leverage points● Where can we have the most impact?
➲ See Meadows, Donella. 1997. “Places to Intervene in a System,” Whole Earth, winter issue.
Leverage Point 9➲ Changing Numbers (subsidies, taxes,
standards, interest rates, etc.).● Standard economists stuff● Can still be powerful
➲ Command and control regulations● Create no incentives to exceed standards
➲ Pigouvian taxes● Scale is price determined● Constant incentive to innovate● Can't be used internationally
➲ Subsidies (perverse and otherwise)
Leverage Point 8➲ Changing material stocks and flows
● Built capital: Hawken, Lovins, Atkisson’s solution of replacing everything
● Natural capital: Maintaining buffering capacity can be an important leverage point
➲ Quotas● Scale is price determined● Constant incentive to innovate
➲ Relevance to projects?
Leverage Point 7
➲ Regulating Negative Feedback Loops● Feedback has to be proportional to problem● Too long or too short can be problematic
➲ Numbers (#9) more effective when they achieve this
● e.g. Pollution taxes➲ Route exhaust pipes through car?➲ Financial Assurance Bonds➲ Producer responsibility for disposal
# 6
➲ Controlling Positive Feedback Loops● non-equilibrium
➲ Population● Tradable baby permits
➲ Speculative bubbles ● Tobin tax
➲ Economic growth● Wealth tax
➲ Erosion rates● Penalties for poor land use practices
#5
➲ Information flows● Creating new feedback loops
➲ Educating the public➲ Related to persuasion➲ Electric meters➲ Most polluting industries➲ Toxic waste sites
#4
➲ Changing the rules (incentives, punishments, constraints)
● Changing property rights, privilege, constitutions
● The commons (democracy over plutocracy)● WTO● Free speech● Banning campaign contributions, lobbying,
etc.
Private property rights: Conversion of Private property rights: Conversion of Mangrove Ecosystems to Shrimp Mangrove Ecosystems to Shrimp AquacultureAquaculture
#3➲ Power of self organization
● Complexity theory and diversity➲ How do we maintain diversity?
● Endangered species act● Anti-trust legislation● University tenure
#2
➲ The Goals of the system➲ Changing the desirable ends
● Economic growth, or ecological sustainability, just distribution, emphasis on other capitals?
● “Ask not what America can do for you, but what you can do for America” vs. “Get the government off our backs”
➲ Can objective science achieve this?
#1
➲ Change the paradigm!➲ What is biophysically possible?➲ From neoclassical economics to
ecological economics
Politics Stream
➲ Focusing events➲ National mood➲ Changing administrations➲ Getting politicians to accept gravity of
problem, implement necessary policies➲ Examples from your projects?
State of the Political Stream➲ “Obama Urgent on Warming, Public
Cool” NYT➲ Belief that climate change is human
caused has decreased (Rasmussen poll)● “44% Say Global Warming Due To Planetary
Trends, Not People”➲ 95-0 non-binding resolution that we won’t
sign any climate change treaties in which poor countries don’t participate
● At the time, America emitted nearly 10x per capita as China, and nearly 20x as India
Why are we failing on the political stream?
➲ Strong media coverage of climate change skeptics?
● NYT headline today: “Use Energy, Get Rich and Save the Planet”
● “Dissenter on Warming Expands His Campaign” http://climatedepot.com/
➲ Media emphasis on unknown rather than known?
➲ Poor communication skills by scientist?➲ Lack of advocacy by scientists?
● Journal article title: Dragnet Ecology--"Just the Facts, Ma'am": The Privilege of Science in a Postmodern World
➲ Lack of a focusing event?● “the political system’s inability to address
long-term challenges without a thunderous precipitating event “
Insights from Behavioral Economics
➲ Why do we need to understand behavior?
● Environmental problems are caused by humans
● Understand what is desirable● Understand what is possible● Learn how to change behavior
People respond to immediate threats
"Dumbo, caught obsessing about higher planetary CO2, did not leave any descendants"
How do we make decisions?
➲ Rational analysis of scientific and technical information?
➲ Personal experience, affect and emotion, trust, values, worldviews?
➲ Personal experience and time lags?➲ Affect and word choice
● Taxes vs. offsets● Negative thoughts first or positive
➲ Parallel and interacting
World Views
➲ Hierarchist: bureacuracy
➲ Egalitarian: hunter-gatherer
➲ Individualist: market➲ Fatalist:
prisoner/slave
Group vs. Individual behavior
➲ Groups more patient (lower discount rates)
➲ Groups do a better job assessing relevant info
➲ Easy to make people act as groups● “blue star team”
What influences preferences?
➲ Framing● 80% survival rate vs. 20% mortality
➲ Default choices● Organ donors
➲ Group or individual decisions➲ Starting points
● WTP or WTA?➲ What we think about first
Nudges: Libertarian Paternalism
➲ Strategic choice of words (strategic interpretation of scientific data, story telling)
➲ Order options (defaults)➲ Create group effects➲ How libertarian?
Presentations➲ Grading criteria
● 25 pts. Clearly and accurately describe the problem you chose to address from the perspective of ecological economics. Relate to course content.
● 20 pts. Clearly and accurately explain how your research helps address the problem
● 15 pts. Explain what future groups will need to to do continue/implement your research
● 20 pts Creativity in presentation● 20 pts Ability to respond to any questions from
audience