Post on 23-Jan-2017
GEOGRAPHICAL PROFILING OF VOLUME CRIMETESTING THE ASSUMPTIONS AND THE HEURISTIC POTENTIALERIC HALFORD MSC
Origin of Thesis
Austerity MeasuresNeed for value for moneyA necessity to embrace the three E's, Efficiency, Economy, EffectivenessHow do you apply science to policing?
The Literatureo Criminology, Psychology, Policing
o Problem Orientated Policing
o Intelligence Led Policing
o Absence of literature on methods to predict crime
o Crime Linkage – How do we predict two or more crimes are linked?
o Geographical Profiling – How do we profile these crimes to predict the offender?
o Heuristics – Greatest value for money if accuracy is comparable
o A lack of operational empirical literature across Policing academia
The Crime Linkage Thesis
Can crime be reliably linked using behavioural and physical characteristics?Can regression and ROC analysis provide decision making thresholds?Can it be done heuristically?Is heuristic accuracy comparable?
The Geo Profiling Thesis
Can 'volume' crime be profiled?Do the commonly held assumptions hold true?Can it be done heuristically?Is predictive accuracy comparable?
Combined Thesis
Can the two theories be drawn together?Will they continue to be accurate?Can they be combined heuristically?Can the heuristic approach remain competitive?
Geographical ProfilingIdentified as the area with least academic researchNo practical studiesMajority of research on major crime i.e. MurderAll research was historic i.e. post conviction
DEFINITION
“An investigative technique used to
determine the most likely location of a
criminal’s residence based upon the
geographic location of crime sites”
(Prof. David L. Wiesenthal, 2012)
The History
Dr Kim Rossmo - Father of geo profilingDr Brent Snook - First to test heuristically'All' research retrospectiveVery little regarding volume crime
The Assumptions
Serious crime only5 or more crimesComplexity equates to accuracy i.e. more crimes and GISMarauders not commuters
The StepsOffencesCrime linkage – currently reliant on tangible linkage i.e. forensicsGeographical profilingTraditional policing techniques – subsequent use of resources to target the profiled area and suspects.
The Ultimate Goal
Volume crime - cradle to grave – crime linkage to geographic profile
Heuristic vs complexity - accuracy
Theory into practicality - operational effectiveness
Increase in the three Es and a reduction in crime
How Will it be Tested?Crime Linkage - Regression and ROC analysisCase study heuristic testing
Linkage – Profiling –Training – Repeat - Combined
ComparisonTrainingAction research
Literature Contribution
Re-contextualisation of existing theories within a new context.Corroboration and elaboration on existing theoretical models.Collaboration of multiple existing theories to produce new insights.Conclusion of the theories feasibility and utilityImplementation of a theoretical framework
The End ProductBest practice frameworkEmpirically testedRejuvenate two fields - GP and Policing AcademiaIncrease detections and convictionsDecrease crime
The Future
Can further predictive theories be incorporated?Optimal Forager theoryCould this produce a completely scientific framework to predicting crime?
Optimal Forager + Crime Linkage + Geographical Profiling
SIMPLE'S!ANY QUESTIONS?