Post on 24-Jul-2020
DUBAI MARKET UPDATE Monday 14 December 2015, Capital Club Dubai
Matthew Green, Head of Research & Consultancy
OFFICE MARKET
3
DUBAI OFFICE MARKET (2007 VS. 2015)
Pre-leasing Consolidation
Flight to Quality New Development
2015 2007
Limited Vacancy
Strata
Ris
ing
Ren
tals
1-year Leases
Sin
gle
Ow
ned
L
on
g L
eases
Landlord’s
Market
4
OFFICE STOCK GROWTH (2007 – Q4 2015)
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8.5 MILLION m2
3.0
Q4 2015 2007
MILLION m2
EXISTING STOCK
5
PRIME CBD OFFICE RENTAL RATES
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0% YEAR-ON-YEAR
PRIME CBD LOCATIONS
RE
NT
S
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015
An
nu
al
Ch
an
ge
(%
)
Pri
me
Ren
ts (
AE
D/s
qm
/an
nu
m)
6
SECONDARY OFFICE RENTAL RATES
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-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015
An
nu
al C
ha
nge
(%
)
Se
co
nd
ary
Ren
ts (
AE
D/s
qm
/an
nu
m)
0% YEAR-ON-YEAR
SECONDARY CBD LOCATIONS
RE
NT
S
7
FUTURE OFFICE SUPPLY (2016 – 2018)
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1.1 MILLION m2
2016 - 2018
0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000
2016
2017
2018
RESIDENTIAL MARKET
9
RESIDENTIAL MARKET (2007 VS. 2015)
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open Smaller Pipeline
Maturing Market
Affordable
Housing
Flight to
Affordability
2015 2007
Rising Values
Significant
Supply
Ris
ing
Valu
es
New Masterplans
Landlord’s
Market
Cu
rren
cie
s
10
RENTAL RATES
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Secondary
vs. Prime
APARTMENTS
0% YEAR-ON-YEAR 1% QTR-ON-QTR
VILLAS
-4% YEAR-ON-YEAR
-1% QTR-ON-QTR
11
RESIDENTIAL SALES MARKET
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UNIT TRANSACTIONS
33% YEAR-ON-YEAR* 2015* UNIT SALES OF AED18.45B
2014* UNIT SALES OF AED32.54B
UNIT SALES
12
SALES RATES
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APARTMENTS
-16% YEAR-ON-YEAR
VILLAS
-14% YEAR-ON-YEAR
Mortgages
-3% QTR-ON-QTR
-5% QTR-ON-QTR
13
FUTURE RESIDENTIAL SUPPLY (2016 – 2018)
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48,000 UNITS 2016 - 2018
FUTURE SUPPLY
HOSPITALITY MARKET
15
HOSPITALITY / TOURISM MARKET (2007 VS. 2015)
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open Theme Parks
Mergers
Expo Effect
3-Star / 4-Star
2015 2007
New Source
Markets
5-Star
Ris
ing
ADR’s
Retail Tourism
High Occupancy
Declin
ing
ADR’s
16
HOTEL ROOM SUPPLY
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1 Star 7% 2 Star
8%
3 Star 14%
4 Star 30%
5 Star 41%
35,000 keys
75,000 keys
17
HOTEL ROOM SUPPLY BY LOCATION
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0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Nu
mb
er o
f R
oo
ms
& F
lats
18
DUBAI HOTEL OCCUPANCY (2014 VS. 2015 YTD)
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10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Occu
pan
cy %
2015 2014
2015 YTD – 77%
2014 YTD – 78%
19
DUBAI HOTEL ADR’S (2014 VS. 2015 YTD)
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0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
AD
R (
AE
D/r
oo
m/n
igh
t)
2015 2014
2015 YTD – AED784
2014 YTD – AED844
20
FUTURE HOSPITALITY SUPPLY
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FUTURE SUPPLY
22,000 ROOMS
2015 - 2017
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2016 2017 2018
Fu
ture
Su
pp
ly (
Ho
tel
Ro
om
s/F
lats
) Keys Flats Total
RETAIL MARKET
22
RETAIL MARKET(2007 VS. 2015)
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Food &
Beverage
Expansion
New Brands
Community Malls
2015 2007
Cannibalisation
Destination
Malls
Ris
ing
Ren
ts
Luxury Brands
High Occupancy
23
RETAIL STOCK GROWTH
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0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reta
il S
up
ply
(sq
m/G
LA
)
Stock New Supply Low Supply
24
FUTURE RETAIL SUPPLY (2016 – 2018)
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FUTURE SUPPLY
556,000m2
2016 - 2018
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000
2016
2017
2018
25
“DEFLATIONARY PRESSURES”
OUTLOOK
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Affordable
Housing
Currencies
New Sources
Theme Parks
Exp
o 2
02
0 Interest Rates
Supply
“FRAGMENTED MARKETPLACE”
“MATURING MARKET”
T +971 4 437 7200
Matthew.green@cbre.com
For more information regarding this presentation please contact: Matthew Green Head of Research & Consultancy