Post on 24-Aug-2020
Drought, Fire, and Flood:
Connecting the Hazards and
Planning for the Triple ThreatASFPM Conference Kansas City, MO
3 May 2017
Coming to a community near you!
THE TRIPLE THREAT!!!
DROUGHT! FIRE! FLOOD!
Are you prepared?
Connecting the Hazards
Colorado: A Case Study
Overcoming Planning Challenges
Outline
Drought
Wildfire
Flood
How are they connected?
• High temperatures• Low precipitation• Soils dry out
harden• Dying vegetation
• Low humidity +• High temperatures +• Dead vegetation =
FUEL• Compounds inability
to absorb rainfall
• Rapid runoff• Increased erosion• Higher risk of
mudslides• Added debris• Water pollution• Sediment buildup
Drought of 2012
• Snow accumulation below normal
• Snowpack melted early
• Above normal temperatures
• Spring precipitation below normal
• By June state 100% in drought
• Combination led to dead/brown vegetation
• Evapotranspiration rates highest observed in 20 years of data
Colorado 2012-2013
Stuck Weather Pattern
H
Colorado Drought Monitor
Wildfires of 2012• 4,167 wildfires reported• 384,803 acres burned• 34,500 residents evacuated• Estimated record $450 million
insured losses• 6 fatalities
Two largest Colorado wildfires that year• High Park Fire
87,250 acres259 homes destroyed
• Waldo Canyon Fire18,247 acres32,000 people evacuated from
Colorado Springs350 homes destroyed Most destructive to date
Tinder-box ready to ignite!
Drought persisted through August 2013
• Record temperatures in June and July
• Below normal precipitation
• Dry conditions
Conditions Persisted
More wildfires ignited:
• 1,176 wildfires
• 195,145 acres burned
• 2 fatalities
Black Forest Fire
• 511 homes destroyed
• 14,280 acres burned
• Surpassed 2012 Waldo Canyon Fire as most destructive
2013 Wildfires
Drought gripped the State for years
Wildfire and water shortages were primary concerns
September - Weather Pattern Shifts!
By September 11, 2013 ingredients for very heavy rains were in place
In September, storm system brought heavy rain over the front range• Boulder County 9.08 inches on the 12th
Previous record for that day was 1.24 inches (2008)
Record broken by nearly 800 percent
Previous all-time single-day record 4.80 inches
(July 31,1919)
• 17 inches fell in one week in Boulder County Average total rainfall for the year = 20.7 inches
• Boulder Creek crested at 7.78 feetHighest water level observed since 1894
One extreme to another…
A changing climate is leading to severe climate -
Pendulum swings…
More frequent, intense heat waves
Diminished cold snaps
Droughts to become more intense
• Leading to increased risk for wildfire
Heavy downpours increasing nationally
Flooding may intensify
Increase in maximum number of consecutive dry days
National Climate Assessment 2014
Boiled down…
Mitigation• Land-Use Plans
• Flood Mitigation Plans
• All-Hazard Mitigation Plans
Management• Drought Management Plans
• Floodplain Management
• Community Wildfire Protection Plans
Other• Emergency Operations Plans
• Evacuation Planning
Planning Challenges
Planning Challenges
Land-Use Planning
Hazard Mitigation Planning
Event Specific Hazard
Planning
Planning Challenges
Floodplain Management
Local Fire Experts/ Fire Departments
Geological Experts
Drought Experts
Create a Culture of Planning
Floodplain Management
Local Fire Experts/ Fire Departments
Geological Experts
Drought Experts
Jurisdictional engagement
Stakeholder engagement
Subject matter experts
Create a Culture of Planning
Municipal planning efforts should be informed by existing planning mechanisms
Not just comprehensive plans and zoning ordinances
Holistic approach to planning
Plan Integration
Plan Integration
HMP Risk Assessment
HMP Risk Assessment
HMP Risk Assessment
HMP Risk Assessment
Continue to better understand drought and how it interacts with other hazards and infrastructure
More communication between officials and subject matter experts
Engage with stakeholders to communicate risk and their role in risk reduction
We have more work to do…
Jeff Henson, jhenson@jeo.comBecky Appleford, rappleford@jeo.com
THANK YOU!
clarifyCan I
my message?