Dr. D.P. Dubey Scientist E

Meteorological Centre, Bhopal (India)email- dir_dubey@rediffmail.com

Weather, climate and water information contributes to the safety and welfare of the public & has the potential to provide immense social and economic benefits to society.

It educate about important issues such as :

variability in weather climate change vulnerability to natural hazards water resources

It is not sufficient to employ good science and provide accurate forecasts.

There is also a need to educate public, and more specialized users, about availability of services .

IndiaWater Resources Management

Monsoon rainfall

Main crop

• Kharif - June to Sept.

• Rabi - Oct to April.

L

Operational communication to end-users (farmers)

State Met Centres

Agromet Advisory Bulletin by AMFUs

Postal Contact

Personal Contact

Radio News Papers

KVK

State Agril. Dept.

Farmer TelevisionTelevision

SMS on mobileSMS on mobile

Weather forecast

• Short range

• Medium range

• Long range

ASSESSMENTS

Climate Change

ASSESSMENTS

Source : IPCCSource : IPCC

AVE. SURFACE TEMP. INCREASE 1.5 TO 5.8ºCRATE OF WARM LARGEMEAN SEA LEVEL RISE 0.09 TO 0.88 MTRSWATER VAP. CONCENTR. / PRECIP. TO

INCREASELOW LATITUDE REGIONS MEAN PRECIP. TO

INCREASEASIAN SUMMER MONSOON PRECIP. INCREASE EL-NINO EVENTS VARY IN NEXT 100 YEARS IN

SMALL BUT INCREASE

GLOBAL ASSESSMENTS – IPCC PROJECTIONS

REGIONAL EFFECTS: Asia

Freshwater Availability:Decreased river flows after glaciers recede; will decrease.

Floods:Glacier melt in Himalayas; sea level rise in deltas

Crop yield:Increase up to 20% in E and SE; decrease up to 30% in S andcentral Asia by 2050; hunger risk high

Observed impacts in South AsiaIntense Rains and Floods

Droughts

Cyclones / Typhoons

• Serious and recurrent floods in Bangladesh,• Nepal and N-E India in 2002, 2003 and 2004• Rainfall in Mumbai (India), 2005: 1 million• people lost their homes

• 50% of droughts associated with El Niño• Droughts in Orissa (India) in 2000-2002: crop failures, mass starvation affecting 11 million people

•Increasing intensity of cyclones formation in Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea since 1970• Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar, 2008: 100, 000 deaths

EVIDENCES / EVENTS

DROUGHT HITS KARNATAKA

2008

COLD WAVE IN NORTH

2006

HEAT WAVE IN NORTHERN INDIA

2007

NILAM CYCLONE (2012)

Vulnerability to Climate ChangeINDIA

WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN THE CASE SEA LEVEL RISE ??

Coastal Zones

Vulnerable areas along the Indian Coast due to SLR

•Sea level rise displace populations in coastal zones, increase flooding in low-lying coastal areas, loss of crop yields from inundation and salinization.

7500 km coast line

• Heat / Cold Wave

• More variable R/F

• Increased Extremes Weather Events

• Erratic Onset, advance and

retrieval of Monsoon

• Shift in Active/break cycles

• Intensity and frequency of Monsoon

Systems

Variability in Weather & Climate

•Decrease in yield of crops as temperature increases in different parts of India –• 2°C increase in mean air temperature, rice yields could decrease by about 0.75 ton/hectare in the high yield areas and by about 0.06 ton/hectare in the low yield coastal regions.

•Major impacts of climate change will be on rain fed crops (other than rice and wheat), which account for nearly 60% of cropland area. In India poorest farmers practice rain fed agriculture.

•The loss in farm-level net revenue will range between 9 and 25% for a temperature rise of 2-3.5°C.

Agriculture

Increasing population

Growing urbanization

Decreasing crop land

Continuing crop loss

Declining crop production

Declining bio-diversity

Factors influencing agriculture and food security

Potential Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Production in India

•Improve land management practices-soil &nutrients

•Increase water management

•Reduce inefficiency in water use

•Preserve and enhance plant and animal

•Adjust food consumption patterns

•Promote eco-friendly energy use

•Shift to different cropping patterns

Adaptations to Climate change

Climate Friendly InitiativeWide-ranging reforms such as:

• energy efficiency• increasing penetration of cleaner fuels• thrust for renewable energy technologies

cleaning of rivers, enhanced forestation, installed significant capacity of hydro and renewable energy technologies and introduced clean coal technologies cleaner and lesser carbon intensive fuel

Water

Acute physical water scarce conditionsConstant water scarcities and shortageSeasonal / regular water stressed conditionsRare water shortages

Key Vulnerable River Basins

The Indian situation

• Surface and ground water availability - 1,869 BCM of this, 40 % is not available.

Groundwater Consumption:

• 92% - Agricultural• 5% - Industrial • 3% - Domestic.

Surface water Consumption:

• 89% - Agricultural• 2% - Industrial• 9% - Domestic.

The Indian situationGroundwater is the major source of water in the country with 85% of the population dependent.

Groundwater water table decline - 33 centimeters per year.

The Indian situation

• Groundwater [Depleted]• Surface water [Polluted]• Rainfall [Wasted]

• Population [ ]• Demand [ ]• Consumption [ ]

SCARCITY

• Agriculture [ ]• Health & Environment[ ]• Future [ ? ]

• Industrial Growth [ ]• Economy-Industry [ ]• Water Business[ ]

The Indian situation

Challenges ….

Public

• Wasting Water

• Polluting Water

Challenges ….

Uncontrolled exploitation of ground water by some industrial establishments

Safety of industrial establishments from surplus surface water and floods

Lack of proper draining facilities

Challenges …

• 2020 India will become a water stressed nation.

• 66 million Indians in 20 states are at risk due to • excess fluoride

• 10 million due to excess arsenic in groundwater

Solution …

• Rain Water Harvesting

• Irrigation Water Management

• Hydrological projects - Construction of Dams

• Artificial Recharge to Ground Water.

Solution …National River Linking Project

Solution …

The much-awaited seawater desalination plant, the largest in the country with a capacity of 100 MLD (million litres per day), coming up near Minjur about 35 km north of Chennai .

Under the technology, developed by the National Institute of Ocean Technology (NIOT), warm water is pumped into a vacuum flash chamber and the resultant vapour is condensed using cold water to get crystal clear potable water.

Desalinated water is of a better quality and the cost is only 6 paise per litre.

Solution …

•Water awareness groups among social media networking sites like Twitter,

•Facebook are creating new trend among the social awareness groups.

•Its not a solution to be found, it should be a

RESOLUTION everyone should take.