Dr. Dan Patterson PMP, CEO Acumen An Introduction to

Acumen 360

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Agenda

! Introduction to Acumen 360 ! Product demonstration ! Case study ! Q&A

February 4, 2013 2

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// Acumen

◦  Project Management Software ◦  Insight into challenges & use of

analytics to overcome them

◦  Core Concepts: 1.  Project success requires a sound plan

2.  Forecast accuracy requires risk consideration

◦  Recognition: ◦  Planning Innovation of the Year 2012

◦  Inc. 500 Fastest Growing Company

Proven Project Analytics

Product Offerings

Acumen Risk

Acumen Fuse®

Acumen 360

Realistic Scheduling

Critiqued

The Base

Risk-Adjusted

Optimized

Team-Aligned // S5

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// S3

// S2

// S1

February 4, 2013 3

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! Meet project goals

! Recover delays

! Optimize schedule

! “What-If…” scenarios

Acumen 360™ Schedule Acceleration

Build Schedule Basis

Acumen Fuse®: Project Diagnostics

Account for Risk & Uncertainty

Acumen 360™: Project Optimization

Team Validation and Buy In

S1 // Schedule Basis!

S2 // Critiqued!

S3 // Risk-Adjusted!

S4// Optimized!

S5 // Team Approved!

February 4, 2013 4

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! Automatic: ◦  Critical path acceleration

! Targeted:

◦  Define acceleration criteria

! Interactive:

◦  Real-time analysis

◦  Instant schedule changes

◦  Deceleration too!

Acceleration Options

3 Acceleration Modes

February 4, 2013 5

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Automatic

! You set the acceleration goal ! 360 generates the scenario

Acumen 360 Acceleration

February 4, 2013 6

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Acceleration Efficiency™

! 2 day project acceleration ! Requires 2 days of reduction ! Acceleration Efficiency =2/2 100%

Measure of Acceleration Effort

! 2 day project acceleration ! Requires 2 days of reduction ! Acceleration Efficiency=2/3 67%

Example  2  

2  day  project  accelera.on  

2  day  project  accelera.on  

2  day  ac.vity  reduc.on   2  day  ac.vity  

reduc.on  

1  day  ac.vity  reduc.on  3

Example  1  

4 February 2013 7

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Targeted

! Define criteria ◦  Create steps

◦  Add filters

◦  Define limits (i.e. up to 50%)

! Uses scheduler’s knowledge of the project

! Not a ‘Black Box’ simulation

Acumen 360 Acceleration

February 4, 2013 8

Criteria  Set  

Script  “Cleanse  &  accelerate  

construc7on”  

Step  1  Remove  all  constraints  

Step  2  Filter  for  Construc7on  ac7vi7es  

Step  3  Reduce  remaining  dura7on  by  20%    

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Interactive

! Accelerate (or decelerate) ◦  Individual activities ◦ Groups of activities

! Immediately view impact

Acumen 360 Acceleration

February 4, 2013 9

Acumen 360™ Demonstration

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// Case Study

! GasCom ◦  LNG Pipeline & Facility Owner ◦  Early FEED stage

! Project Details ◦  Readying for sanction approval ◦  Expected First Gas Date: Dec.

2013 ◦  Gas sales contract already

established ◦  Using Primavera P6

Schedule Acceleration/Risk Reduction

Realistic Scheduling

Critiqued

The Base

Risk-Adjusted

Optimized

Team-Aligned // S5

// S4

// S3

// S2

// S1

4 February 2013 11

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// S1 > S2

! Sanction Board Requirements ◦  Risk-adjusted forecast P75 ◦  Fuse Schedule Index 75+

! Project Status ◦  S1 showing Dec 13 first gas ◦  Risk assessment not yet

conducted

Schedule Review

Realistic Scheduling

Critiqued

The Base

Risk-Adjusted

Optimized

Team-Aligned // S5

// S4

// S3

// S2

// S1

4 February 2013 12

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S1 > S2 Schedule Critique

! Validated multiple sub-projects ! Test to ensure true path to First Gas ! Analysis showed break in path around Early Works ! Fixing this, First Gas moved to the right by 2 months ! Schedule cleanse: further 3 months adjustment

Sound Basis of Schedule

4 February 2013 13

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Removal of Logic Redundancy Simplification of Schedule

8%  redundancy  

Removal of redundancy led to a cleaner, more robust schedule 4 February 2013 14

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// S1 > S2

! S2 First Gas date: May 2014

! Schedule Critique Details: ◦  Missing Logic was added ◦  Lags converted to activities ◦  Float analysis

◦  Showed padding of early activities

Summary

Realistic Scheduling

Critiqued

The Base

Risk-Adjusted

Optimized

Team-Aligned // S5

// S4

// S3

// S2

// S1

5 months S2: May 2014 S1: Dec 2013

4 February 2013 15

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Float Analysis

! S1 showed high float in early stage of project ! S2 resolved schedule showed the opposite ! Early acceleration opportunity went away

GasCom

0  

20  

40  

60  

Q1  2011  

Q2  2011  

Q3  2011  

Q4  2011  

Q1  2012  

Q2  2012  

Q3  2012  

Q4  2012  

Q1  2013  

Q2  2013  

Q3  2013  

Q4  2013  

Q1  2014  

Q2  2014  

Q3  2014  

Q4  2014  S1  Average  Float   S2  Average  Float  

Originally perceived opportunity for making up lost time through float absorption in early stage of

project

Resolved schedule not offering early stage

schedule acceleration

4 February 2013 16

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// S2 > S3

! Objective: ◦  Determine a P75 First Gas date

! Conducted Risk Workshop

Risk Analysis

Realistic Scheduling

Critiqued

The Base

Risk-Adjusted

Optimized

Team-Aligned // S5

// S4

// S3

// S2

// S1

Uncertainty  

Risk  Events  

Schedule  

4 February 2013 17

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Perception of Risk Exposure

0%  10%  20%  30%  40%  50%  60%  70%  

Team  Percep7on  

Actual  Risk  Hotspots  

Risk Inputs & Outputs

Uncertainty Factor Best Case (Optimistic) Worst Case (Pessimistic) Very Conservative 50% 100%

Conservative 75% 105%

Realistic 90% 110%

Aggressive 95% 125%

Very Aggressive 100% 150%

4 February 2013 18

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Risk Insight Risk Inputs

Aggressive  •  Skew  to  the  right  

Conserva7ve  •  Skew  to  the  leS  

Broad  Risk  Range  •  Range  <>  dura7on  

Ques7onable  Range  •  Accidently  includes  risk  events  

No  Risk    • Missed  ranging  

Average  Risk  Range  •  Degree  of  uncertainty  

No  upside  •  Can  only  be  later  

No  Downside  •  Can  only  be  earlier  

Wrong  •  Inputs  don’t  align  

4 February 2013 19

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Risk Insight Risk Exposure

High  cri7cality  •  Risk  indicator  

Hidden  cri7cal  paths  •  Unique  insight  

Risk  Hotspots™  •  Risky  &  complex  logic  

Schedule  risk  drivers  •  True  risk  metric  

High  Con7ngency  •  How  much  buffer  needed?  

Average  Risk  exposure  •  Risk  Trending/path  

4 February 2013 21

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// S2 > S3

! P75 risk-adjusted First Gas: Oct 2014 ◦  10 months later than board

expectations

! Identified key risk hot spots ◦  Long Lead procurement items

! Hidden path identified ◦  Driven by land acquisition delaying

pipeline early works

Summary

Realistic Scheduling

Critiqued

The Base

Risk-Adjusted

Optimized

Team-Aligned // S5

// S4

// S3

// S2

// S1

S1: Dec 2013

S2: May 2014 5

S3: Oct 2014 10

4 February 2013 23

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// S3 > S4

! Risk Mitigation: ◦  Response plan identified for key

risks ◦  Response plans added to

schedule ◦  Assessed cost/benefit of

mitigation ◦  $100MM investment to save 1

month

Getting back to Dec 2013

Realistic Scheduling

Critiqued

The Base

Risk-Adjusted

Optimized

Team-Aligned // S5

// S4

// S3

// S2

// S1

4 February 2013 24

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// S3 > S4

! Schedule Acceleration details: ◦  LNG Pipeline ready for hookup:

Feb 13 ◦  LNG Facility ready to receive

gas: Nov 13 ! Focus needed:

◦  Accelerating the LNG facility ! Could afford to slow down

pipeline/field work by months…

Getting back to Dec 2013

Realistic Scheduling

Critiqued

The Base

Risk-Adjusted

Optimized

Team-Aligned // S5

// S4

// S3

// S2

// S1

4 February 2013 25

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LNG Facility

! Criteria set drives acceleration ◦  Reduce duration

◦  More resources ◦  Changed calendars

◦  Contractor incentive

◦  Delay Train 2

Acceleration Criteria Set

LNG  Facility  

Script  Objec.ve  “accelerate  Facility  by  6  

months”  

Step  1  Accelerate  Jeey  construc7on  

Step  2  Delay  Train  2  ac7vi7es  

Step  3  Introduce  6  day  working  week/larger  camp  

4 February 2013 26

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How did this work?

! CPM simulation ! Critical path focus ! Incremental push ! Prioritize

◦  Earliest/latest ◦  Longest durations ◦  Least resistance

Fuse 360 Acceleration

4 February 2013 27

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// S3 > S4 > S5

! LNG Facility: ◦  Accelerated sufficiently ◦  No longer the driving path

! S4 Deterministic First Gas: Aug 2013 ◦  4 months earlier than S1 ◦  12 months earlier than S3 ◦  P75 risk-adjusted: Feb 2014

! S5 Team Buy-in ◦  Final 2 months achieved through

more aggressive mitigation

Summary

Realistic Scheduling

Critiqued

The Base

Risk-Adjusted

Optimized

Team-Aligned // S5

// S4

// S3

// S2

// S1

4 February 2013 28

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GasCom Case Study

! Fully vetted, bought-into schedule ! Risk-adjusted ! LNG Facility accelerated to align with

pipeline ! Mitigation plan sponsored by board ! Sanction awarded!

The Result

S4: Accelerated Aug 1 2013

S1: Target 1st Gas Dec 1 2013

S2: Resolved Schedule May 1 2014

S3: Risk-Adjusted Oct 1 2014

P75 S4: Feb 2014

S5: Mitigated Dec 1 2013

4 February 2013 29

More information: White papers: www.projectacumen.com Software Trial: www.projectacumen.com/trial Twitter: @projectacumen Email: info@projectacumen.com