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insights from David J. Hand

This presentation consists of 10 highlights from the interview with Moe Abdou,

founder & host of 33voices®.

David J. Hand

Professor David Hand is Senior Research Investigator and Emeritus Professor of Math-ematics at Imperial College, London, where he formerly held the Chair in Statistics. He is also Chief Scientific Advisor to Winton Capital Management, a Fellow of the British Acad-emy, and an Honorary Fellow of the Institute of Actuaries. He has served (twice) as Presi-dent of the Royal Statistical Society. He was appointed a non-executive director of the UK Statistics Authority on 1 April 2013 for a period of three years, and is Chair of the Board of the UK Administrative Data Research Network. In 2002 he was awarded the Guy Medal of the Royal Statistical Society, and in 2012 he and his research group won the Credit Collections and Risk Award for Contributions to the Credit Industry.

1

Extremely improbable events are commonplace;

accept it, understand it and appreciate it.

2

To understand the Improbability Principle,keep in mind these fundamental 5 laws:

2

To understand the Improbability Principle,keep in mind these fundamental 5 laws:

The law of inevitability

2

To understand the Improbability Principle,keep in mind these fundamental 5 laws:

The law of truly large numbers

2

To understand the Improbability Principle,keep in mind these fundamental 5 laws:

The law of selection

2

To understand the Improbability Principle,keep in mind these fundamental 5 laws:

The law of probability lever

2

To understand the Improbability Principle,keep in mind these fundamental 5 laws:

The law of near enough

3

Correlation does not imply causation.

be cautious that correlated events may just have a common cause.

4

If you’re superstitious, it’s likely just a belief.

still, the laws of probability don’t validate any type of superstition.

5

In evaluating future opportunities, it’s wise to collect as much retrospective data as possible

and look for patterns to support your decision.

6

Self-fulfilling prophecies are perceived real only because we often focus on

what occurredand hardly remember all the times that such events didn’t occur.

6

Self-fulfilling prophecies are perceived real only because we often focus on

what occurredand hardly remember all the times that such events didn’t occur.

7

Ignore chance and randomness in life at your peril;

they will happen.

8

To improve the odds that you’ll ‘be in the right place at the right time,’

give yourself more opportunities -

get visible.

9

Rest assured that there are

no certainties in life!

10

Looking back is easy, but looking forward is almost impossible.

the role of chance in life is real.

Do you believe in miracles?

REALLY REFLECT...

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