Post on 24-Dec-2015
DOHA ROUND: DOHA ROUND: THE OUTLOOKTHE OUTLOOK
Mr. José Luis MachineaMr. José Luis MachineaExecutive SecretaryExecutive Secretary
ECLACECLAC
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CONTENTSCONTENTS
Importance and urgency of DohaImportance and urgency of Doha
Complex nature of the negotiationsComplex nature of the negotiations
After Hong KongAfter Hong Kong
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IMPORTANCE AND URGENCY OF IMPORTANCE AND URGENCY OF DOHA DOHA
The multilateral system is the best option The multilateral system is the best option for developing countriesfor developing countries
Developing countries are the main Developing countries are the main beneficiaries of a successful Doha roundbeneficiaries of a successful Doha round
Risks of protectionism and “managed Risks of protectionism and “managed trade”trade”
Full incorporation of China raises concernsFull incorporation of China raises concerns• Main challenge for the multilateral trading Main challenge for the multilateral trading
system is adapting to the surge in competition system is adapting to the surge in competition from China and Asia in global marketsfrom China and Asia in global markets
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IMPORTANCE AND URGENCY OF IMPORTANCE AND URGENCY OF DOHADOHA
Mounting tensions between the Mounting tensions between the multilateral, regional and bilateral multilateral, regional and bilateral levels of global integration: threat of levels of global integration: threat of exclusionexclusion• Overlapping standards, inconsistent Overlapping standards, inconsistent
tariff reduction timetables, restrictive tariff reduction timetables, restrictive rules of originrules of origin
• WTO losing ground WTO losing ground • Most favoured nation treatment tending Most favoured nation treatment tending
to be the exception rather than the ruleto be the exception rather than the rule
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MAIN NEGOTIATING ISSUES AT MAIN NEGOTIATING ISSUES AT DOHADOHA
AgricultureAgriculture Non-agricultural market access (NAMA)Non-agricultural market access (NAMA) Trade in servicesTrade in services Relationship between environmental accords and Relationship between environmental accords and
WTOWTO Rules (anti-dumping, fishery subsidies and Rules (anti-dumping, fishery subsidies and
regional trade agreements) regional trade agreements) Dispute settlement (outside the single Dispute settlement (outside the single
undertaking)undertaking) Trade facilitation Trade facilitation The development dimension and multilateral The development dimension and multilateral
trading system.trading system.
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AGRICULTUREAGRICULTURE
Core issue for DOHACore issue for DOHA Three pillarsThree pillars
• Market access: significant reduction of Market access: significant reduction of tariff barriers and expansion of tariff tariff barriers and expansion of tariff quotasquotas
• Export competition: reduction of all Export competition: reduction of all export subsidies with a view to phasing export subsidies with a view to phasing them out altogetherthem out altogether
• Domestic supports: clarifications, Domestic supports: clarifications, disciplines and substantial reductions.disciplines and substantial reductions.
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CENTRALITY OF AGRICULTURECENTRALITY OF AGRICULTURE
Market access is the main and most complex issue, as Market access is the main and most complex issue, as well as the one that holds out the potential for the well as the one that holds out the potential for the greatest gains.greatest gains.
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Industrialized countries:Industrialized countries: tariff peaks tariff peaks
32.0
43.340.0 38.5
68.3
58.757.6
74.9 308.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Tobacco Cigarettes Grape must Fructose andsyrups
Cheese Meat (withbone)
Tobacco Nuts Seeds
European Union Japan United States
Source: ECLAC International Trade and Integration Division
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Exports Imports Exports ImportsTARIFFREDUCTIONS
REDUCTION IN DOMESTIC SUPPORTS
Developing countries
6.7 6.0 0.8 -0.1 0.6 0.1
Argentina 4.6 4.5 1.5 -0.5 4.9 2.4Brazil 4.7 4.4 -0.5 0.6 0.1 0.1Bolivia 2.4 4.2 2.2 -0.4 -0.2 0.2Colombia 5.7 6.9 -0.9 0.7 1.8 0.3Costa Rica 14.6 3.8 1.7 -0.5 28.4 2.2Chile 4.7 4.9 1.3 -0.3 2.6 0.5India 5.0 5.7 1.5 0.1 0.1 0.0Jamaica 14.4 5.9 1.5 -0.3 4.7 0.0Mexico 5.1 8.4 0.9 0.5 0.6 -0.5South Africa 6.5 -0.2 1.3 0.5 0.5 0.1Thailand 12.4 6.4 0.6 0.0 4.8 0.3Trinidad and Tobago 11.2 5.4 1.2 -0.3 -2.3 -1.4Venezuela (Bol. Rep. of) 8.5 6.8 0.2 0.3 -0.8 -0.4
Least developedcountries
3.7 5.3 2.0 -0.2 0.1 0.1
REGION
Source: B. Hoekman, F. Ng and M. Olarreaga (2003): “Reducing Agricultural Tariffs versus Domestic Support: What's More Important for Developing Countries?”, PRWP 2918, World Bank.
PERCENTAGESIMPACT OF IMPROVEMENTS IN MARKET ACCESS AND DOMESTIC SUPPORT
50% reduction in tariff barriers:Agricultural products
50% reduction in domestic supports for
agricultural products
Changes in welfare:( $ per capita income)
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CENTRALITY OF AGRICULTURECENTRALITY OF AGRICULTURE
Market access is the main and most complex issue, as Market access is the main and most complex issue, as well as the one that holds out the potential for the well as the one that holds out the potential for the greatest gains.greatest gains.
Defining targets and tools for eliminating export Defining targets and tools for eliminating export subsidies and substantially reducing all trade-distorting subsidies and substantially reducing all trade-distorting domestic supports are highly complex and highly domestic supports are highly complex and highly technical tasks. technical tasks.
This contributes to the failure to address the politically This contributes to the failure to address the politically complex matter of reducing agricultural protectionism complex matter of reducing agricultural protectionism in Europe, Japan and the United States.in Europe, Japan and the United States.
Developing countries do not necessarily present a Developing countries do not necessarily present a united front on all three pillars of the agricultural united front on all three pillars of the agricultural negotiations.negotiations.• The relatively less developed countries prefer to maintain unilateral The relatively less developed countries prefer to maintain unilateral
preferences and keep the existing restrictions on access to the preferences and keep the existing restrictions on access to the European Union market, for example.European Union market, for example.
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COMPLEXITY OF THE NEGOTIATIONSCOMPLEXITY OF THE NEGOTIATIONS
The negotiating agenda includes highly complex The negotiating agenda includes highly complex technical matters that are being deferred while technical matters that are being deferred while the countries await results in agriculture.the countries await results in agriculture.
Developing countries must be prepared for Developing countries must be prepared for different scenarios.different scenarios.
In order to reach an agreement, an overall In order to reach an agreement, an overall balance of interests between developing and balance of interests between developing and developed countries will have to be achieved:developed countries will have to be achieved:• Inevitable trade-offs among different issuesInevitable trade-offs among different issues• Giving ground on some topics in order to gain in othersGiving ground on some topics in order to gain in others• Rigidity may be useful in the negotiations but, in the Rigidity may be useful in the negotiations but, in the
end, pragmatism and a broad view are needed.end, pragmatism and a broad view are needed.
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SOME CONCLUSIONSSOME CONCLUSIONS
Agriculture is of central importance, but it Agriculture is of central importance, but it is not the only issueis not the only issue
Weak leadership thus far by the United Weak leadership thus far by the United States and the European Union (however States and the European Union (however things are changing after the US proposal) things are changing after the US proposal)
Developing countries are more prepared Developing countries are more prepared and better organized than beforeand better organized than before
Apart from agriculture, shifting alliances Apart from agriculture, shifting alliances among the developing countries and among the developing countries and between developing and developed between developing and developed nations.nations.
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AFTER HONG KONGAFTER HONG KONG An inconclusive meeting would undermine An inconclusive meeting would undermine
the credibility of WTO and weaken its the credibility of WTO and weaken its mandate. mandate. • Good credibility in dispute settlement, but Good credibility in dispute settlement, but
none in promoting negotiations.none in promoting negotiations.• Indirect stimulus for discriminatory preferential Indirect stimulus for discriminatory preferential
agreements outside WTO.agreements outside WTO.• WTO would lose influence and relevance.WTO would lose influence and relevance.
Features of the Hong Kong Declaration:Features of the Hong Kong Declaration:• Reasonable and realistic parameters that will Reasonable and realistic parameters that will
allow negotiations to continue in 2006.allow negotiations to continue in 2006.
DOHA ROUND: DOHA ROUND: THE OUTLOOKTHE OUTLOOK
www.eclac.orgwww.eclac.org
Mr. José Luis MachineaMr. José Luis MachineaExecutive SecretaryExecutive Secretary
ECLACECLAC