Post on 12-Apr-2017
De-Risky BusinessEnterprise Services Planning Summit 2016 @mattphilip
Techniques for Identifying and Mitigating Risk
Fitness Criteria
Blocker Clustering Probabilistic Forecasting
Service-Delivery Review
Techniques
Fitness Criteria
Technique: Fitness Criteria
A metric that enables us to evaluate whether our product, service or service delivery is "fit for purpose" in the eyes of a customer from a given market segment.
-- David J. Anderson
What is a Fitness Criterion?
@mattphilip #kanbanESP
@mattphilip #kanbanESP
@mattphilip #kanbanESP
delivery team
customer
exec sponsor
Risk factors, Success criteria
TDD, code coverage,JS framework,
team happiness
Fitness Criteria
coach
WIP
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delivery team
customer
Exec sponsor
QualityDelivery timePredictability
coach
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business
CIO
PMO able to track progress,No teams falling behind
“Doing Agile,”Estimating well
Fitness Criteria
delivery team
delivery team
delivery team
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business
CIO
Value delivery,Reliability
delivery team
delivery team
delivery team
Asking your customers what they value about your service or product
Customer collaboration over contract negotiation
Agile Manifesto
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Fitness criteria are a key to self-organizing teams
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Fitness Criteria Metric Health/Improvement MetricMetric that enables us to evaluate whether our product, service or service delivery is "fit for purpose" in the eyes of a customer from a given market segment. Effectively comprise the Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) for each market segment.
Metric that guides an improvement initiative or indicates the general health of your business, business or product unit or service delivery capability.
Direct Indirect/derivative
Examples: delivery time, functional quality, safety
Examples: flow efficiency, velocity, percent complete and accurate, WIP
Customer-oriented/derived Team-oriented/derived
If it’s not at least derivative of a fitness criterion, it’s at best a vanity metric, and at worst a misguiding metric.
Service-Delivery Review
Technique: Service-Delivery Review
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Net Fitness ScoreDelivery Quality
“Did you get what you wanted?”Net Fitness Score (NFS) = % satisfied customers –% dissatisfied customers
Question 1: How "fit for purpose" did you find this delivery?
Question 2: Specifically, why did you give that rating?
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1. How "fit for purpose" do you find this facilitation service?
2. Specifically, why did you give that rating?Rating Description Indication
5 Extremely: This facilitation service was everything we needed and more
A satisfied person who felt that the service was fit for purpose
4 Highly: This facilitation service was everything we needed
3 Mostly: This facilitation service was most of what we needed but some of our needs were not met
A neutral person who didn't get everything needed to be delighted with the service but got something
acceptable for his or her time investment
2 Partially: This facilitation service met some of our needs but lacked significant and important elements
A dissatisfied person who felt purpose was unmet by the service
1 Slightly: This facilitation service had some value but most of what we needed was missing
0 Not at all: This facilitation service had no value
Blocker Clustering
Technique: Blocker Clustering
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Blocker Clustering
• Leverages a kanban system to identify and quantify the things that block work from flowing
• Helps “trim the tail” in distribution (risk)
• — Photo from Woodland Trust
WHAT IS A BLOCKER?
An abnormal condition that prevents a committed work item from progress
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Getting Started• Talk with your team about it• Define “block” for your team • Minimally instrument your
kanban system to gather data, including the block reason and duration
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Blocker Analysis
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35 Dependent Story blockers
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69 days lost to Dependent Story blockers
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Learnings
Team 1• internal blockers caused 20 days worth of delay• external blockers caused 147 days worth of delay • the biggest blocker cluster accounted for 86 days of
delayTeam 2• 141 stories in the release• 66 stories were blocked at some point —
nearly half
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85th percentile
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85th percentile
Probabilistic Forecasting
Technique: Probabilistic Forecasting
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Filters
All filters must be set beforeusing this simulation. You canchange the filter settings onanother chart, then returnhere.
Source Dates
Projected Dates
Relax input validation
More Trials
From 3/11/2016 First
To 4/5/2016 Last
From 4/6/2016 < >
To 7/8/2016 94 days
5 10 15 20 25 30 350
200
400
600
800
1K
1.2K
1.4K
Monte Carlo (13K trials)
Total Items Complete in 94 Days
Occurrences
▾Metadata Services Delivery Time Data.xlsx, 4/6/2016 Monte Carlo: Simulate Completed Items ▼
Copyright 2014 Actionable Agile, Inc. (https://www.actionableagile.com)
20
30%
18
50%
16
70%
14
85%
12
95%
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• Have a conversation with your customer to discover fitness criteria
• Ask “What decisions would these affect?”• Make them visible• Use in feedback loop (e.g., service-delivery review)• Try blocker clustering• Forecast using data, not guesses
Risk-MitigationTakeaways for
Tomorrow
• Defining Fitness for Purpose (http://www.djaa.com/defining-fitness-purpose)
• Your KPIs Probably Aren't! But What Are They?
(https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/your-kpis-probably-arent-what-david-anderson)• Klaus Leopold, Troy Magennis, Larry Maccherone• Service-Delivery Review worksheet (mattphilip.wordpress.com)• RAID Bingo (mattphilip.wordpress.com)
References and Further Reading@mattphilip