Day 16 – Dynamics of Party Change In Congress

July 25, 2013

Realigning or Critical Elections “Even the most fleeting inspection of American

elections suggests the existence of a category of elections in which voters are, at least from impressionistic evidence, unusually deeply concerned, in which the extent of electoral involvement is relatively quite high, and in which the decisive results of the voting reveal a sharp alteration of the pre-existing cleavage within the electorate.” V.O. Key in “A Theory of Critical Elections” (1955)

What do they lead to? Party Systems

Parties’ issue positions shift along with voters’ behavior every few decades.

Periodic build-up of societal pressure (roughly once a generation) overthrows “politics as usual” system.

How Do Party Alignments Change Over Time? Realignment Theory (Key 1955, Burnham

1970) Issue Evolution (Carmines and Stimson 1989)

Certain issues can restructure the political system (e.g. race)

Party Position Change (Karol 2009)

Election of 1800 Federalist Party: John Adams, Charles C.

Pickney http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oeHepBjAyS0&li

st=PL0FwQejmr_tdPzPFRpOP8zIwj-Bf8NiYk

Democratic-Republican Party: Thomas Jefferson, Aaron Burr

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sQmtEc-6E-Y

Election of 1828 Whig Party: John Q. Adams (Incumbent) Democratic Party: Andrew Jackson Rematch of 1824

The “Corrupt Bargain”

Source: http://www.270towin.com/1824_Election/

Jacksonian Democracy Expanded suffrage

Universal white male suffrage Manifest Destiny Patronage Strict Constructionism

Federal government of limited powers’ Laissez-fair Economics Anti-Banking

The Secession Crisis of the 1850s “Men had been talking more and more since

1852 of a great new party that would not only unite Whigs and Free-Soilers but bring in half or more of the northern Democrats who could not stomach their party’s constant compromises with slavery.”

- James Sundquist (1983)

1850

1852

1854

1856

1858

1860

Republican Party Platform http

://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=29620

Results by State http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/datagraph.php?

year=1860&fips=0&f=0&off=0&elect=0

2012 in Comparison