Sustainability,

Prosperity,

Survival,

I’mterrified.

2

January 22, 2009

January 22, 2009

Q: Do you think we will survive?

A: I don't think humans react fast enough or are clever enough to handle what's coming up.

James Lovelock,Author of the Gaia Theory

Theproblems:sciencevsideologydesirevsneednobroadlyacceptedvision

Asingularity

8

9

PillarsofCreaBonDestroyedbysupernova6,000yearsago

Bang

3,000galaxies

milkyway500,000,000,000stars

Sun

Streamsofmaterialandenergyflowfromthesunandplanetarysourcesthroughtheeconomicsystemtotheplanetarysinkswherewastesandpollutantsendup.

Therearelimits,however,totheratesatwhichsourcescanproducethesematerials

andenergywithoutharmtopeople,theeconomy,ortheearth’sprocessesofregenera9onandregula9on.

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http://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch8en/conc8en/img/biosphere.gif

In1972theworld’spopulaBonandeconomyweresBllcomfortablywithintheplanet’scarryingcapacity.

TherewassBllroomtogrowsafelywhilewecouldexaminelonger‐termopBons.

Buttherewasapossibilityoftotalcollapse,“overshoot.”

Veryveryveryveryfewpeoplethinkthislarge,thisfarout

YaleeconomistHenryC.Wallichlabeledthebook“apieceofirresponsiblenonsense”

“ThemostamazingaspectofthebookishowaccuratemanyofthebasictrendextrapolaBonssBllaresome30yearslater.”

Ma?hewSimmons

“ThedatacomparisonpresentedherelendssupporttotheconclusionthattheglobalsystemisonanunsustainabletrajectoryunlessthereissubstanBalandrapidreducBoninconsumpBvebehavior,incombinaBonwithtechnologicalprogress.”

AComparisonoftheLimitstoGrowthwith30YearsofReality‐GrahamTurner,CommonwealthScienBficandIndustrialResearchOrganisaBon,Australia

Theworldhasovershotsomeofitslimits,andwithoutchangeswefacethevirtuallycertainprospectofaglobaleconomiccollapse.

‐1992

Humanityhassquanderedtheopportunitytocorrectourcurrentcourseoverthelast30years,andmuchmustchangeiftheworldistoavoidtheseriousconsequencesofovershootinthe21stcentury.‐2004

THEDRIVINGFORCE:EXPONENTIALGROWTHFormorethanacentury,theworldhasbeenexperiencingexponenBalgrowthinanumberofareas,includingpopulaBonandindustrialproducBon.

ThegreatestshortcomingofthehumanraceisourinabilitytounderstandexponenBalfuncBon.

Dr.AlbertA.Bartle`,DepartmentofPhysics,U.ColoradoBoulder

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Effect of Growth Rates over one lifetime (70 years)

time period 70 years

rate of growth factor

current pop 6,000,000

1% 2 12,000,000

2% 4 48,000,000

3% 8 384,000,000

4% 16 6,144,000,000

5% 32 196,608,000,000

Houstonattheendofthecentury

33 0

7,500,000

15,000,000

22,500,000

30,000,000

2005 population 2035 population2065 population

2095 population

HermanDaly’sdefiniBonofsustainability:

Developmentwithoutgrowthbeyondenvironmentalcarryingcapacity,wheredevelopmentmeansqualitaBveimprovementandgrowthmeansquanBtaBveincrease

HermanDaly

“Wearebasicallylookingnowatafutureclimatebeyondanythingwe’veconsideredseriouslyinclimatemodelsituaBons.”

ChristopherField

Democracy Now, February 26, 2009

Carnegie Institution for Science, Co-chair, Working Group II of the IPCC, testifying before the Senate, Committee on Environment and Public Works

No American newspaper or television station reported this story.

“ThisisamomentofgreatvolaBlityandinstabilityintheworldsystem.Weneedurgentlytodowhatwecantoavoiddeepcollapse.”‐C.S.Holling

arabianbusiness.com/542705-the-end-of-the-world-is-nigh

seedmagazine.com/news/2009/02/urban_paradox.php

[WhiteHousescienceadvisor]JohnHoldrencomparedglobalwarmingtobeing“inacarwithbadbrakesdrivingtowardacliffinthefog.”

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Ques9on:Doyouthinkwewillsurvive?

Answer:I'manopBmisBcpessimist.Ithinkit'swrongtoassumewe'llsurvive2°Cofwarming:therearealreadytoomanypeopleonEarth.

At4°Cwecouldnotsurvivewithevenone‐tenthofourcurrentpopulaBon.Thereasoniswewouldnotfindenoughfood,unlesswesynthesizedit.

Becauseofthis,thecullduringthiscenturyisgoingtobehuge,upto90percent.Thenumberofpeopleremainingattheendofthecenturywillprobablybeabillionorless.

Ithashappenedbefore:betweentheiceagestherewerebo`leneckswhentherewereonly2000peoplelej.It'shappeningagain.

James Lovelock,Author of the Gaia Theory

In1972ourrecommendaBonstoldhowtoslowgrowth.

NowwemusttellpeoplehowtomanageanorderlyreducBonoftheiracBviBesbackdownbelowthelimitsoftheearth's

January 22, 2009

PopulaBonlevelsoffbetween2030and2070–andbeginstodecline

Financial

Total income by quintiles 1979-2002

TheSeniorTsunami

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Y e a r

0

5 0 0

1 , 0 0 0

1 , 5 0 0

2 , 0 0 0

Thou

sand

s

Peo

ple

Turn

ing

65 in

Yea

r

Economicchaos

Quality of life vs standard of living

Nature‐deficitdisorderdescribesthehumancostsofalienaBonfromnature,amongthem:

diminisheduseofsenses,a`enBondifficulBes,highcrimerates,depression,higherratesofphysicalandemoBonalillnessotherurbanmaladies.

“thismaybethefirstgeneraBonofAmericanstolivelesslongthantheirparents.”

Dr.RobertN.Butler,InternaBonalLongevityCenter,MountSinaiSchoolofMedicine

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Globalsources

Foodtravelsbetween1,500milesand2,500milestoreachyourplate.

Weflyle`uceherefromAustralia.

Hurricanes,terrorism,andenergypricescancausemajordisrupBons.

Contaminantsaccumulateandarepassedalong.

PolluBonmovesthroughthefood

TheglobalviewPlentyoffood.DistribuBonrestrictedbyeconomics,culture,governmentcorrupBon,warfare,andmore.

2009drought

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Energysecurityagrowingworry

DistribuBontrouble

NotjustglobalwarmingEconomicmeltdownGrowingwealthgapEnergyshortagesShorterlives?FoodsecurityDeclininghealthIncreasingstress

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So….?

TheEuropeanVision

Polycentricregion,polycentricciBes

SOURCE: United Nations SecretariatWorld Urbanization Prospects:

TheEuropeanUnionplansafutureinwhichregionswithmul9plecentersorganizeintocollaboraBveeconomicclustersthatformsustainablenetworksofaccess,mobility,andgreeninfrastructure.

•Randstad, Netherlands

Weareametrona9on.80%ofusliveinmetroareas85%ofjobsareinmetroareas

It’saboutnodesinanetwork.

Megaregions

2050‐GrowthintheTexasTriangle

Watersheds

Ecoregions

The concept:multiple centers organized into collaborative economic clusters that form sustainable networks of access, mobility, and green infrastructure

Strategies:• Protect the ecostructure• Enhance regional connections

By

EbenezerHoward

1898

Longest walk: 1.5 miles

Center to edge: 3/4 mileFifth Avenue:1.6 milesGrand Avenue:3.3 milesRailroad5 miles

3/4 mile

Welwyn Garden City, UK , 120,000 population

Ulm, Germany, 120,000 population

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CiBes,Towns,Villages,Neighborhoods

Americanpreferences

PewResearchCenter,Social&DemographicTrendsproject

PewResearchCenter,Social&DemographicTrendsproject

PewResearchCenter,Social&DemographicTrendsproject

By a ratio of more than three-to-one, Americans prefer living where the pace of life is slow, not fast.

ThePaceofLifewalkingspeedvs.populaBonBorstein & Bornstein

Nature 1976Bornstein, IJP 1979

Strategy:Changethestory

Changethegoals

ChangetheinformaBonflow

Map:Houston Wilderness

“Houstonwasdesignedaroundthecar.”NOT

Originally,HoustonwasacharmingSwissvillage

Houstonbeganasasmartgrowthport.

Withagreaturbanplan

Earlydevelopmentwasbasedontransit

1927UnBlthe1940s,Houstonwastransit‐oriented

Houston1.0:WalkableUrbanism

ThencamePlanB,Houston2.0.

Socialengineeringpublicpolicydesignedtoforcealifestyle

Source: adapted from Newman, P. and J. Kenworthy (1999) Sustainability and Cities

Energy consumption vs.population density

3,538,000morepeople

Massivelossofgreenspaceincludingprairie,forest,marshland,riparian,andagriculturalland

Anotherloop.(eachbeltwaylowersretail&servicetrade2%‐5%*)

*Nelson & Moody (J. Urb. Pl. & Dev. 2000)

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Citizen goals:

The2035RTPGoals:1.Improvemobility,lesscongesBon,andcost.2.BuildstrongercommuniBes.3.Increasetransit.4.PreservefloodplainsforwaterdetenBonandrecreaBon.5.Healthierenvironment.

“Activity intensity” = jobs + residents/acre

“Urban Design to Reduce Automobile Dependence,” by Peter Newman and Jeffrey Kenworthy

Intensity below 14 people/acre begins rapid acceleration of car dependency

• CentralBusinessDistrict

• TownCenter

• Railway

• LocalCenter

• TransitCi9es

• BusorLRTroute

Leon Krier

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4

4

HoustonIspolycentric Dispersed

density

Rail‐supporBveareas

Central Business District

Universities

Med Center

Uptown/Galleria

Greenway

Gulfton

Projected ridership:250,000 boardings per day

Rail‐supporBveareas

Station areas could absorb 1/2 of City’s population growth

Pop 200,000Jobs 450,00025% of all jobs

Houston3.0:WalkableUrbanism(again)

Thenew(old)model

Networks & Nodes

Conceptual plan for restructuring an automobile city

Neighborhood Center

Town Center

Regional Center

Urban Core

Connections

New Approach: Sustainable Mobility

Vehicle Miles Traveled per Household

“Fingersofnature”ineveryneighborhood

SustainableHoustonRegionswithmulBplecenters

organizeintocollaboraBve

economicclustersthatform

sustainablenetworksofaccess,

mobility,andgreeninfrastructure.

SustainableHoustonwheredevelopmentmeansqualitaBveimprovement

SustainableHoustonQualityoflife>Standardofliving

Sustainable prosperity in a changing world

houstontomorrow.org

sustainablegrowth?sustainabledevelopment?sustainableeconomics?sustainableprosperity?

sustainablehealth,safety,welfare,happiness?

QualityofLife=StandardofLivingQualityoflife>StandardofLiving

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Abiomeisalargegeographicareawith

similaroruniqueplants,animals,andclimate.

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