REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIAMINISTRY OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND SPATIAL PLANNING

SLOVENIAN ENVIRONMENT AGENCY

DATA ASSIMILATION PROGRESS IN SLOVENIA

Benedikt Strajnar

REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIAMINISTRY OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND SPATIAL PLANNING

SLOVENIAN ENVIRONMENT AGENCY

DATA assimilation status at SEAOperational since March 30th 2011

Two 54 h production runs per day (00, 12 UTC), sms

Clear surface improvement, neutral upper-air scores

Improved precipitation cases (convective and stratiform)

REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIAMINISTRY OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND SPATIAL PLANNING

SLOVENIAN ENVIRONMENT AGENCY

Operational suite - sms

REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIAMINISTRY OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND SPATIAL PLANNING

SLOVENIAN ENVIRONMENT AGENCY

2m T and RH scores for May 2011

Improved surface temperature

Dry humidity bias (opposite sign)

REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIAMINISTRY OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND SPATIAL PLANNING

SLOVENIAN ENVIRONMENT AGENCY

Upper-air scores

500 hPa

925 hPa

REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIAMINISTRY OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND SPATIAL PLANNING

SLOVENIAN ENVIRONMENT AGENCY

Revised use of satellite data

channel selection based on obs-guess (~0.5 K) and analysis-guess (~0.1 K) Tb bias

removal of ch. 13 AMSU-A because of a low model top (5 hPa)

temporal blacklisting via run-dependent LISTE_LOC

added MSG SEVIRI ch. 7 on top of 2,3

REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIAMINISTRY OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND SPATIAL PLANNING

SLOVENIAN ENVIRONMENT AGENCY

Revised usage of satellite data - scores

Scores mixed for all variables, degradation for RH

Wind directionWind speedRelative humidity

Temperature Geopotentiel

REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIAMINISTRY OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND SPATIAL PLANNING

SLOVENIAN ENVIRONMENT AGENCY

SEVIRI channel 7 guilty?

Channel 3 Channel 7

REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIAMINISTRY OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND SPATIAL PLANNING

SLOVENIAN ENVIRONMENT AGENCY

DFI tuning Modifications of DFI cut-off period (TAUS) Tests of incremental vs. non-incremental filter Tests also with no initialization

6-minute rainfall accumulation

REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIAMINISTRY OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND SPATIAL PLANNING

SLOVENIAN ENVIRONMENT AGENCY

DFI diagnostics

REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIAMINISTRY OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND SPATIAL PLANNING

SLOVENIAN ENVIRONMENT AGENCY

DFI tunning - scores

REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIAMINISTRY OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND SPATIAL PLANNING

SLOVENIAN ENVIRONMENT AGENCY

VARBC impact

Varbc tested for a period of 1 month (24h cycling), 1 – 10 hPa predictor switched off

Warming-up period was 14 days

REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIAMINISTRY OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND SPATIAL PLANNING

SLOVENIAN ENVIRONMENT AGENCY

Order of surface and upper-air analysis

Scores for near-surface T and RH clearly improved if surface is analysed before the atmosphere

REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIAMINISTRY OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND SPATIAL PLANNING

SLOVENIAN ENVIRONMENT AGENCY

Impact of 2 m RH and T assimilation

REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIAMINISTRY OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND SPATIAL PLANNING

SLOVENIAN ENVIRONMENT AGENCY

LANDSAF Albedo assimilation impact

Proof of concept at 4.4 km

Cold model bias (February 2011, around 5°C) decreased up to 1 K (average ~ 0.2 K) due to LANDSAF albedo estimates

REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIAMINISTRY OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND SPATIAL PLANNING

SLOVENIAN ENVIRONMENT AGENCY

Plans

Migrate to cy36

Test and use METOP

Test and use IASI

Test and use S-Mode high-resolution aircraft data

Test surfex

Explore possibilities to use Slovenian GPS data

Improve vertical resolution

Recompute B, choose better periods (summer B matrix at the moment)

REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIAMINISTRY OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND SPATIAL PLANNING

SLOVENIAN ENVIRONMENT AGENCY

Case I:

Improved location of afternoon convection in assimilation run

REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIAMINISTRY OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND SPATIAL PLANNING

SLOVENIAN ENVIRONMENT AGENCY

REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIAMINISTRY OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND SPATIAL PLANNING

SLOVENIAN ENVIRONMENT AGENCY

Case II: weak front - precipitationASSIMDYN. ADA. INCA

REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIAMINISTRY OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND SPATIAL PLANNING

SLOVENIAN ENVIRONMENT AGENCY

Case II: weak front – improved timingASSIMDYN. ADA. INCA

REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIAMINISTRY OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND SPATIAL PLANNING

SLOVENIAN ENVIRONMENT AGENCY

Case III:

Improved location and time of the first thunderstorm

Radar accumulation

REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIAMINISTRY OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND SPATIAL PLANNING

SLOVENIAN ENVIRONMENT AGENCY

REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIAMINISTRY OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND SPATIAL PLANNING

SLOVENIAN ENVIRONMENT AGENCY

Case III: Next day (+33 h)

ASSIM DYN.ADA.

Case IV: Location of convection

S Slovenia instead of NE

N Adriatic not dry