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COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 1
Concentrating Solar:Ready for takeoff – or stalled on the launchpad?
ASESMay 18, 2011
Brett Prior, CFASenior Analyst
Greentech Media / GTM Research
COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 2
CSP PV
Trough
Tower Dish
CLFR Flat plate
CPV
COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 3
Future looks bright for CSP
Source: GTM Research
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
In Operation Construction withPPA/FIT
Development withPPA/FIT
Development, no PPA/FIT
Capa
city
(MW
)
Global CSP Projects by Technology 18,706 MW Total
Each symbol = 1,000 MW
TBAMicroCSPCLFRDish-EnginePower TowerParabolic Trough
1,1671,639
6,841
9,058
COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 4
Near term pipeline mostly trough, with tower in 2014+
Source: GTM Research
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1985 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015+
Annu
al N
ew C
apac
ity In
stal
led
(MW
)
Global CSP Project Pipeline by Expected Online Date 18,706 MW Total
Each Symbol = 1,000 MW
TBAMicroCSPCLFRDish-EnginePower TowerParabolic Trough
915 555
838
3,828 3,927
7,990
340 18860
COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 5
95%
5%<1%
Spain: 582 MW
97%
1% 1% <1% <1%
U.S.: 507 MW
100%
Iran: 62 MW
Australia: 3 MW
Germany: 2 MW
France: 1 MW
Parabolic Trough Power Tower CLFR Dish Engine MicroCSP
CSP Plants In Operation (1,167 MW Total)
COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 6
60%
40%
U.S.: 8,669 MW
70%2%
25%
1% 1%
Spain: 4,456 MW
12%
86%
2%
China: 2,500 MW
2%
96%Morocco: 520 MW
3% 11%14%72%
Australia: 520 MW
100%
Israel: 250 MW
100%Sudan: 250 MW
100%
Jordan: 100 MW
100%
South Africa: 100 MW
100%
UAE: 100 MW
India: 70 MW76%
14%
100%
Greece: 50 MW
100%
Italy: 28 MW
100%
France: 21 MW
100%Algeria: 20 MW
100%
Egypt: 20 MW
Parabolic Trough Power Tower CLFR Dish Engine MicroCSP TBA
CSP Plants Under Construction/Development (17,539 MW Total)
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US CSP Market
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Robust pipeline with trough & tower
BrightSource’s Ivanpah
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
In Operation Construction withPPA/FIT
Development withPPA/FIT
Development, no PPA/FIT
Capa
city
(MW
)US CSP Projects by Technology
9,176 MW TotalEach symbol = 1,000 MW
TBA
MicroCSP
CLFR
Dish-Engine
Power Tower
Parabolic Trough
507 672
5,583
2,414
BrightSource IvanpahAbengoa
Solana
COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 9
1985 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015+
TBA - - - - - - - - -
MicroCSP - - 1 - - - - - -
CLFR - 5 - - - - - - -
Dish-Engine - - - 2 - - - - 155
Power Tower - - 5 - - 126 621 1,550 1,390
Parabolic Trough 340 - - 76 5 - 1,905 1,968 949
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Annu
al N
ew C
apac
ity In
stal
led
(MW
)
US CSP Project Pipeline by Expected Online Date 9,176 MW Total
Each Symbol = 1,000 MW
Dish-Engine
Power Tower
Parabolic Trough
126
2,526
3,518
2,494
Robust pipeline with trough & tower
Source: GTM Research
UA Tech Park
Abengoa SolanaSTA Blythe
NextEra Genesis & Beacon
BrightSource Ivanpah
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CALIFORNIA
NEVADA UTAH
ARIZONA
Parabolic Trough
Power Tower
Dish-Engine
PPA Signed No PPA Signed
5 MW 100 MW 250 MW 500 MW >1,000 MW
Size Represents Project Capacity in MW
Kingman Project (I & II)
Hualapai Valley Solar Project
Amargosa Farm Road
Crescent Dunes
BrightSource-Ivanpah
Coyote Springs (I & II)
Solana
Sonoran Solar
Quartzsite Solar
Rice Solar
Blythe (I & II)
Mt. Signal Solar
Imperial Valley I
Imperial Valley II
Victorville
Palmdale
Gaskell (I & II)
eSolar (I & II)
Beacon Solar
Fort Irwin
Mojave Solar
AMS
Palen
Genesis (I & II)
UA Tech Park
SolarCAT Pilot
Harper Lake
US CSP Project Tracker
Last update 2/14/11 Created by Brett Prior (prior@gtmresearch.com)
COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 11
US CSP Projects: Milestone Tracker Projects in yellow have PPAs & all required permitsDOE
Developer Project NameElectricity Purchaser State Technology
Break ground
Expected Online Date
Capacity, Gross (MW) P
PA
Per
iod
(yrs
)
App
rove
d by
PU
C
Fas
t-tr
acke
d
Draft EIS Final EIS
Final Record of Decision
AFC Filed
EC Proposed Decision
EC Final Decision
1705 Loan Guarantee
Projects under Construction1 BrightSource Ivanpah PG&E 1 PG&E CA Tower Oct-10 2012 126 25 Y Y 11/10/09 8/6/10 10/7/10 8/13/07 8/4/10 9/22/10 Conditional
2 BrightSource Ivanpah PG&E 2 PG&E CA Tower Oct-10 2013 133 25 Y Y 11/10/09 8/6/10 10/7/10 8/13/07 8/4/10 9/22/10 Conditional
3 BrightSource Ivanpah SCE SCE CA Tower Oct-10 2013 133 20 Y 11/10/09 8/6/10 10/7/10 8/13/07 8/4/10 9/22/10 Conditional
4 Abengoa Solar Solana Generating Station APS AZ Trough Dec-10 2012 280 30 Y ------------------Private------------------ 12/5/08 Closed
TOTAL 672
Projects under Development with PPAs1 Abengoa Solar Abengoa Mojave Solar (AMS) project PG&E CA Trough Dec-10 2013 250 25 ------------------Private------------------ 8/10/09 8/6/10 9/8/10
2 Acciona Fort Irwin US Army/utilitie
CA Trough 2014 500 ?3 Bell Independent UA Tech Park Thermal Storage
Demonstration ProjectTucson Electric
AZ Trough 2011 5 20 ------------------Private------------------
4 BrightSource BrightSource PG&E 5 PG&E CA Tower 2016 200 25 Y5 BrightSource BrightSource PG&E 6 PG&E CA Tower 2016 200 25 Y6 BrightSource BrightSource PG&E 7 PG&E CA Tower 2017 200 25 Y7 BrightSource Brightsource SCE (Solar Partners XVI-
XXI)SCE CA Tower 2013 1,200 20
8 BrightSource Coyote Springs 1 (PG&E 3) PG&E NV Tower 2014 200 25 Y ------------------Private------------------
9 BrightSource Coyote Springs 2 (PG&E 4) PG&E NV Tower 2015 200 25 Y ------------------Private------------------
10 Inland Energy Inc. Palmdale Hybrid Gas-Solar plant Yes CA Trough 2013 50 ? 8/4/08
11 Inland Energy Inc. Victorville 2 Hybrid Power Project Yes CA Trough 50 ? 2/28/07 5/30/08 7/16/08
12 MMR Power Solutions Mt. Signal Solar SDG&E CA Trough 49 20 Y13 NextEra Energy Beacon Solar Energy Project Yes CA Trough Dec-10 2012 250 ? ------------------Private------------------ 3/14/08 7/20/10 8/25/10
14 NextEra Energy Genesis Solar Energy Project-1 PG&E CA Trough Dec-10 2013 125 25 Y Y 4/19/10 8/30/10 11/4/10 8/31/09 8/19/10 9/29/10
15 NextEra Energy Genesis Solar Energy Project-2 PG&E CA Trough 2014 125 25 Y 4/19/10 8/30/10 11/4/10 8/31/09 8/19/10 9/29/10
16 NRG Energy Gaskell Sun Tower (Phase I) SCE CA Tower 2012 105 20 Y ------------------Private------------------
17 NRG Energy Gaskell Sun Tower (Phase II) SCE CA Tower 140 20 Y ------------------Private------------------
18 SolarReserve Crescent Dunes Solar Energy Project NV Energy NV Tower Jun-11 2013 100 25 Y Y 9/3/10 11/26/10 12/20/10 7/20/09 Part II
19 SolarReserve Rice Solar Energy (RSEP) PG&E CA Tower 3Q 2011 2013 150 25 Y ------------------Private------------------ 10/21/09 11/12/10 12/16/10 Part II
20 Solar Millennium LLC/Chevron Blythe (Phase I) SCE CA Trough Dec-10 2013 500 20 Y Y 4/6/10 8/20/10 10/25/10 8/24/09 8/11/10 9/15/10
21 Solar Millennium LLC/Chevron Blythe (Phase II) SCE CA Trough 2014 500 20 Y 4/6/10 8/20/10 10/25/10 8/24/09 8/11/10 9/15/10
22 Solar Millennium LLC Palen Solar Power Project SCE CA Trough Aug-11 2014 484 20 Y 4/7/10 8/24/09
TOTAL with PPAs 5,583
Projects under Development without PPAs23 Albiasa Solar Kingman Project (Phase I) APS? AZ Trough 3Q2011 2013 100 ------------------Private------------------
24 Albiasa Solar Kingman Project (Phase II) AZ Trough 100 ------------------Private------------------
25 Southwest Solar SolarCAT Pilot Plant AZ Dish 10 ------------------Private------------------
26 Harper Lake LLC Harper Lake Solar Plant CA Trough 250
27 Mohave Sun Power Hualapai Valley Solar Project AZ Trough 2011 2013 34028 NextEra Energy Sonoran Solar Energy Project (fka
Jojoba)AZ Trough 2011 2014 375 Y 4/9/10
29 NRG Energy eSolar 1 CA Tower 8430 NRG Energy eSolar 2 CA Tower 6631 Pacific Light & Power Westside Solar Project Kauai Island
Utility HI Trough 2011 2011 10 ------------------Private------------------
32 SolarReserve Crossroads APS/SRP AZ Tower 2012 2014 150 ------------------Private------------------ 2/7/11
33 SolarReserve Quartzsite Solar Energy Project AZ Tower 100
34 SolarReserve Saguache Solar CO Tower 200 ------------------Private------------------
35 Solar Millennium LLC Amargosa Farm Road NV Trough Nov-11 2014 484 Y 3/19/10 10/15/10 11/15/10
36 Tessera Solar San Luis Valley CO Dish 145 ------------------Private------------------
TOTAL without PPAs 2,414 TOTAL 8,669
Cancelled Projects1 Tessera Solar Buckeye Landfill Project AZ Dish Sep-11 2012 240 --------Private (City-Owned)---------
2 Tessera Solar Western Ranch TX Dish 2011 2013 27 ------------------Private------------------
3 Tessera Solar Calico Solar Project I (formerly Solar One)
SCE CA Dish Dec-10 2011 275 20 Y Y 3/30/10 8/6/10 10/20/10 12/2/08 9/25/10 10/28/10
4 Tessera Solar Calico Solar Project II (formerly Solar One)
SCE CA Dish 2014 575 ? Y Y 3/30/10 8/6/10 10/20/10 12/2/08 9/25/10 10/28/10
5 Tessera Solar Imperial Valley Solar Project I (formerly Solar Two)
SDG&E CA Dish Dec-10 2011 300 20 Y Y 2/22/10 7/28/10 10/5/10 6/30/08 8/26/10 9/29/10
6 Tessera Solar Imperial Valley Solar Project II (formerly Solar Two)
CA Dish Aug-12 2014 409 Y 2/22/10 7/28/10 10/5/10 6/30/08 8/26/10 9/29/10
7 Solar Millennium LLC Ridgecrest Solar Power Project SCE CA Trough Nov-11 2014 242 20 Y 4/7/10 9/12/09
8 Siemens Energy (Solel) Mojave Solar Park PG&E CA Trough 2014 553 25 YList compiled and maintained by Brett Prior (prior@gtmresearch.com). Updated 5/17/2011
State Energy CommissionPPA Land
COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 12
Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) Analysis
COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 13
$3.76 $3.86
$5.09
$3.63 $3.50 $3.62
$4.68
$6.20$7.00
$7.50
$-
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
PV: CdTe PV: Multi PV: Mono CLFR Dish-Engine Parabolic Trough (no storage)
Power Tower (no storage)
Parabolic Trough (with storage)
MicroCSP Power Tower (with storage)
Capital Cost ($/W-ac) by Solar Technology
AREVAKimberlina
$9.29SoluciaLebrija$8.72
TorresolGemasolar
$17.97
Upington$5.48
TorresolValle 1$8.52
SopogyHolaniku$21.29
StirlingMaricopa
$15.65
Siemens MSPAREVAModel plant
StirlingModel Plant
BrightSourceIvanpah
SolarReservemodel plantSTA
Amargosa
Sopogymodel plant
No Storage With Storage
Cost per watt is a key input for LCOE
Source: GTM Research
COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 14
Source: GTM Research
Amargosa
Cameo
Beacon
Andasol-1ASTE-1 B
Badajoz 2
Blythe I
Cloncurry
EL REBOSO II
EL REBOSO III
Enerstar
Extresol-1 Fort Irwin
Gemasolar
Helioenergy 2
Helios II
Holaniku
Ciudad Real
Ivanpah PG&E 2
Kimberlina
Kingman I
Kogan Creek
Lebrija 1
Maricopa
Martin
Siemens Mojave
Nevada Solar One
Olivenza 1
Palen
PS10
Puerto Errado 2
Solaben 6Solacor 2
Solana
Borges
UA Tech Park
Whyalla
$0.00
$0.10
$0.20
$0.30
$0.40
$0.50
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
LCO
E ($
/kW
h)
Expected Online Date
LCOE for CSP Projects by Expected Online Date
50 MW
Bubble size scaled to plant size (in MW)
1 MW
250 MW
Since 2007, LCOE flat over time - but lower at scale
COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 15
LCOE varies widely by solar technology
Source: GTM Research
$0.062
$0.074
$0.104
$0.116
$0.123
$0.126
$0.126
$0.131
$0.137
$0.146
$0.155
$0.168
$0.05 $0.07 $0.09 $0.11 $0.13 $0.15 $0.17 $0.19
Gas CC
Wind
Gas CC (with GHG Compliance Tax)
Power Tower (dry, storage)
PV: CdTe, fixed
High CPV (lens)
PV: Mono, 1-axis
PV: Multi, fixed
CLFR (dry, no storage)
Power Tower (dry, no storage)
Parabolic Trough (wet, no storage)
Parabolic Trough (dry, no storage)
LCOE ($/kWh)
LCOE by Technology in 2011 ($/kWh)Including Expected Gross Margin
COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 16
Our forecast for LCOE shows dramatic improvements
Source: GTM Research
$0.16
$0.12
$0.18
$0.07
$0.15
$0.09
$0.19
$0.16
$0.08
$0.17
$0.06
$0.08
$0.10
$0.12
$0.14
$0.16
$0.18
$0.20
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
LCO
E ($
/kW
h)
LCOE Forecast by Technology, 2009-2020Including Expected Gross Margins
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Market Share Analysis
COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 18
Source: GTM Research
COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 19
Q&A
Brett Prior, CFASenior AnalystGTM Research
prior@gtmresearch.com