Crete, September 2013

GOSEM SS Prof. Panebianco Stefania

University of Catania

The Arab Spring: between tradition and technologySidi Bouzid (Tunisia) , 17 December 2010 upheavals in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, Bahrain, Siria, Algeria, Morocco, Jordan, Mauritania.

What is new compared to previous popular mobilization in Arab Countries? There is no ideological nor religious inspiration; Large use of media (esp. cable TV) and technology (mobile

phones, web, blogs); Active involvement of middle classes and educated people.

Protest tools: twitter, facebook, Al Jazeera, Al Arabja …..

Democracy and the Mediterranean: still an ‘Arab exceptionalism’?

The debate of the last decades raised the following questions: Are MENA countries ‘unfit’ to experience democratic change?

Is there anything inherently undemocratic about Islam?The literature: <<the ME had remained untouched by the third wave of

democratization>> (Huntington, 1991); There is an Arab democratic gap (Lewitsky and Way, 2002; Diamond,

2010); Despite the liberalization processes which had occurred in the early

1990s, an authoritarian turn had established liberalized autocracies (O’Donnell & Schmitter, 1986; Brumberg, 2002);

… where does the Arab Spring fit in the debate?

The Arab Spring and democracyCompatibility or compliance to a Western model?

- Democracy as (Western) values

- Democracy as procedures

Can we talk about a

“Muslim Democracy”? Olivier Roy: Secularism, Islam and

the West

The origins of a ‘Muslim Democracy’

Early1990s

Military withdraw from power (es.Turkey)

Development of middle classes and private economic

actors

Establishment of multi-party systems

and electoral competition

A wave of ‘Muslim Democracy’?Popular requests during the Arab Spring

Popular request for

regime change

Support to liberal

practices

Freedoms and human dignity as universal values

Public opinion surveys in Arab Mediterranean countries

‘Westernization’ Democratization

They do NOT want

They DO want

Defining Democracy

Democracy

Norms to provide

legitimacy to political regimes

‘people’s power’

Europe/North

America

Rule of law

Common sense Word’s

definition

Historical origins

Key concept

Rule of law

Rule of law

Free and correct

elections

Respect of fundament

al freedoms

Government accountability

Legal opposition

Towards a widespread democratization process in the Mediterranean?

YES NO

Different indicators need to be identified

Persistence of authoritarian regimes: no contagion effect

Reversed processes (Islamist regimes)

POPULAR PROTESTS

Coetzee: criticism to the

democratic peace theory: the structure

matters

The minimum requirements for democracy (Dahl 1980)

universal suffrage; free, competitive, recurrent and correct

elections; more than one political party; alternative information sources.

Democracy as a process: Liberalization with or without democratization

Liberalization: process of partial opening of authoritarian institutions; generally it starts with the granting of individual freedoms and rights (e.g. reduction of censorship, increased autonomy of socio-economic groups, opposition is tolerated).

Democratization: process of creation and stabilization of democratic institutions which leads to the end of the authoritarian regime. It includes liberalization and moves further to rant political competition and government’s accountability as a result of free and competitive elections.

Hybrid regimes: between authoritarianism and democracy

HYBRID REGIMES

TRADITIONAL REGIMES

AUTHORITARIANISM LIBERAL DEMOCRACY

Possible Outcomes of the Arab Spring

Democratic change

No political change

Authoritarian turn

Persistent instability

Freedom in the World 2012

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POLITICAL CHANGE IN THE MEDITERRANEAN SINCE SPRING 2011

2013: Civil Liberties/Political Rights

Status 2011: Civil Liberties-Political Rights

Status Change

ALGERIA 5,5 (5/6) NF 5,5 (5/6) NF -

EGYPT 5,0 (5/5) PF 5,5 (5/6) NF ISRAEL 1,5 (2/1) F 1,5 (2/1) F -

JORDAN 5,5 (n.a.) NF 5,5 (5/6) NF -*

LEBANON 4,5 (n.a.) PF 4,0 (3/5) PF LIBYA 4,5 (5/4) PF 7 (7/7) NF MOROCCO 4,5 (n.a.) PF 4,5 (4/5) PF -

SYRIA 7,0 (n.a.) NF 6,5 (6/7) NF -

TUNISIA 3,5 (4/3) PF 6 (5/7) PF Source: Freedom House, Country Reports 2013-2011

* Partly free from 2004 to 2009

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The ‘drivers’ to democracy

Local actors (political élites, civil society, Islamist parties)

International actors as ‘facilitators’ or ‘anchors’ (EU, US, IOs, NGOs)

Actors of political change New/old political élites Military Civil society (e.g. political parties including

Islamist parties) International community: US, EU, regional

powers, international organizations, NGOs)

Teti: A CDA of PfDSP