Covering Your Local Economy: When Will Jobs Come Back?

In 2013 …

Marilyn Geewax NPR Senior Business Editor

mgeewax@npr.org @geewaxnpr

What We Will Explore Today

•  Covering the Local Labor Market is Job #1 •  What Does President Obama Want? •  What Does the GOP-led House Want? •  What Do Business Groups Want? •  What Does Labor Want? •  How Can You Find the Local Angles?

More Than Five Years Of A Tough Labor Market

Searching for Work For Months – The Key Problem

No Surprise That Jobs Disappeared as GDP Plunged

Bureau of Economic Analysis data

In Case You Don’t Remember, IT WAS BAD!!

•  Back in January 2009, the economy lost 779,000 jobs.

•  For all of 2009, employers eliminated about 4.7 million jobs. • In absolute numbers, that was the single worst year in U.S. history for job losses. • Unemployment hit 10% by October.

People Started Calling It A “Mancession” Because Losses Hit Men

Harder Than Women

•  Construction •  Manufacturing •  Financial Services

.

Photo by flickr user Wayne National Forest

The Jobs That Are Coming Back Tend To Be Lower-Paying

•  Retail •  Food Services •  Health Aides

.

Photo by flickr user Salt Lake Chamber

Jobless Rate – The Key Number •  7.4 percent today, which is lousy, but

better than in October 2009.

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000

Around 11.5 Million Still Searching For Jobs

Nearly 5 million are Long-Term Unemployed

3.8 Million Job Openings – Mostly For Skilled Workers

So How Do We Get Jobs Growing Again?

There Are Different Approaches

•  What Obama Would Do •  What House

Republicans Would Do •  What Labor Unions

Would Do •  What Businesses

Would Do Photo by flickr user jessie owen

What Does President Obama Want?

•  More Jobs •  Deficit Reduction •  Corporate-Tax Reform •  Immigration Reform •  More Green Energy •  Transportation-Infrastructure

Upgrades

http://www.whitehouse.gov/economy Photo by flickr user Argonne

National Laboratory

American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009

What Do House Republicans Want? •  Lower Corporate

Taxes •  Cut Federal

Spending •  Expand Energy

Extraction and Refining

•  Reform Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

http://www.speaker.gov/initiatives Photo by flickr user westchesterbuzz

What Does Labor Want? •  More Spending for

Transportation, Schools and Energy Infrastructure

•  Trade-Policy Reforms •  More Federal Aid to

State and Local Governments to Prevent Layoffs

•  Wall Street Reforms •  Minimum-Wage Hike

http://www.aflcio.org/Issues Photo by flickr user Ray Cunningham

What Does Business Want? •  Corporate-Tax

Reform •  More Spending for

Roads, Bridges, Ports and Airports

•  Immigration Reform •  Better Schools and

Universities •  Tort Reform

Photo by Marketing Research Association http://tinyurl.com/b9ka87z

Some Economists Think 2014 Could Bring Much Better Growth

No Matter What Congress Does

Three reasons: 1.  Energy

Expansion 2.  Agriculture

Boom 3.  Construction

Resumption Photo by Iowa Farm Bureau

Booming Oil Industry Struggling to Fill Job Openings

How Can You Tell If Your Area Is Doing Better?

•  Jobs, Jobs, Jobs (BLS.gov) •  Home Prices (S&P/Case-Shiller Index) •  Home Foreclosures (RealtyTrac) •  Local Bankers (Is Lending Improving?) •  Local Car Dealers (What Are People

Buying? Trucks for Work??)

http://www.bls.gov/lau

State Jobless Numbers

America Will Recover When Jobs Come Back