Conflict Management and Peace Resolution of the Nagorno-

Karabakh conflict. Solutions from “Doctrine” JMRC

Jasur Mammadov, “Doctrine” Journalists’s Military Research Center, Chairman April, 9. 2014 Paris

“Doctrine” Journalists’ Military Research Center:

• Was created in 2005, May.

• Registered by Ministry of Justice of Azerbaijan in 2007, December.

• There are military experts, journalists and political analysts in cooperation with Doctrine center.

Activities: Strategic analyzing:

• the prognosis about military strategy of Azerbaijan Republic and other regional countries;

• the prognosis about regional conflicts;

• the simulated predictions about regional alarming process;

• Relations of Azerbaijan Republic with different countries on military and security field.

Activities: Database analysis:

• monitoring the number of soldier deaths in Azerbaijan Defense and Security sector (since 2003);

• military budget analyzing.

Activities: Army Reform:

• monitoring the reform in Azerbaijan Army according to the documents which were signed with NATO (especially IPAP document);

• analyzing the situation, problems related with the army building;

• analyzing the military legislations, preparing the suggestions;

• analyzing the social welfare of soldiers and officers;

• the suggestions related with struggle against terrorism.

Activities: Defense Industry and supplies:

• research and analyze the activities of the companies in Defense Industry;

• analyzing military expenditure for the buying military techniques and weapons;

Activities: Human Rights protection and civil society:

• human rights protection in army and in

reserve;

• monitoring the media and civil society activities on military field;

• Training and practical help to journalists and NGO leaders who want to be active on military field;

• Consulting services.

Activities: Conflict with Armenia:

• Monitoring the soldier deaths in frontline;

• Analyzing the violation of the ceasefire;

• Analyzing the meetings between presidents, Ministers of Foreign Affairs of two countries and Minsk Group activities;

• Interview with different experts, officials about conflict.

The comporative list of soldier deaths in

Defense and Security Sector (2003-2013)

The comporative list of the wounded (injured) soldiers in Defense and Security

Sector (2003-2013)

In 2013, combat losses

In 2014:

Total number of combat deaths and casualties for (2003-2014)

In 2014:

• During this year two Armenian civilians were captured in Azerbaijan border by Azerbaijani soldiers. One of them returned back.

• During last 3 months three Azerbaijani civilians were shot by Armenian side.

Violation of ceasefire in 2013 (by Armenian side)

• Total number of ceasefire violations 1.796

This is:

• 21.3 per cent higher than in 2012

• 2.3 times higher than in 2011.

According to the results of APA’s monitoring based on the materials confirmed by Azerbaijan’s Defense Ministry.

In months (2013) (APA report)

The areas where ceasefire violated (2013, APA report)

The areas where ceasefire violated (2013, APA report)

OSCE Annual Report for 2013

• Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is one of the challenging issues that exist today.

• The chairmanship expressed support for the Minsk Group co-chairs in promoting dialogue between Azerbaijan and Armenia to settle the conflict.

• the search for a lasting political settlement for the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is one of the most complex challenges in the OSCE region.

• despite the declaration of a ceasefire in 1994, shooting incidents in the area are frequent, and violations of the ceasefire are reported on an almost daily basis.

OSCE Annual Report for 2013

• Five civilians and 32 servicemen were wounded;

• 14 servicemen were killed;

• Ambassador Andrzej Kasprzyk's team visited the line of contact 16 times and the border 9 times

Conflict solution Ideas

The role of international mediators:

• OSCE Minsk Group process should prepare the strict rules for strengthening the control on violation of ceasefire on frontline.

• International mediators immediately should invite the conflict sides to implement different but successive steps which will bring the peace

Conflict solution Successive steps

• Not to open fire on civilians;

• Adoption the new and logical rules for calculation the ceasefire violations;

• Appointment the numerous international observers on frontline to record the ceasefire violations;

• Increase the distance between troops in order to reduce the possibility the military clashes between sides and decrease combat deaths (in some places of frontline distance is 100-150 meters).

• Immediately set emergency contact with Armenian and Azerbaijan sides during the violation of ceasefire.

Conflict solution Successive steps:

• OSCE Minsk Group should strengthen the preparation process of intensive meetings of Ministers of Foreign Affairs;

• Mutual sharing the mine maps;

• Creating special negotiating apparatus in MFA of both countries is desirable. This structure must play many-sided role, as be supportive in planning the meetings, contacting to each other while occurring the alarming events.

The main goal of this process should be:

• To stop human deaths (military and civilians)

in the conflict;

• To stop conflict from escalation;

• To gain time to strategic planning related with the solution the conflict;

• To build confidence between people.

Six level of conflict resolution which should be done…

Step 1. Democratization: • Azerbaijan and Armenia today possess

undemocratic regimes; • The level of transparency and accountability is

very low; • In general all government structures are engaged

to corruption and bribery; • In many cases the governments abuse the conflict

for their personal goals; • A lot of political prisoners, violation of the

freedom of expression…

Democratization: Should be done:

• Support to these countries to held democratic

parliament and presidential elections;

• the political elite of these countries should get really support from people in peace negotiation process;

• Non-democratically unelected political leaders are unreliable.

Step 2. Stabilization

• Armenia should withdraw its troops from Azerbaijan territories. The first step should be related with surrounding regions. Then from Nagorno -Karabakh).

• Azerbaijan should declare the future status of the Nagorno-Karabakh region. High level autonomy should be assigned to this region. At the same time the Armenian residents of this region should get opportunity to use double citizenship – Azerbaijan and Armenian;

• International peacekeeping forces (lightly armed) under the EU mandate can come to this conflict region and control the situation in this region).

Step 3. Demilitarization

• Azerbaijan and Armenian should sign special agreement about demilitarization of this region;

• Only police forces should be responsible to ensure public order;

• Azerbaijan Government should be guarantee of security the people who live in Nagorno – Karabakh.

Step 4. Reconciliation and negotiations

• Related organizations as MoD, MFA and other

structures from Armenia and Azerbaijan should begin the intensive negotiations about solutions under the support of International organizations as with OSCE, NATO, UN.

• Internally Displaced Persons should be returned to this region.

Step 5. Subordination, Assertion and Restoration

• The special structure or person inside the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Azerbaijan should be responsible to negotiating with Armenian and Azerbaijani communities of Nagorno Karabakh in order to support the building their relationship and development of the region.

• Steady meetings should be held, spending significant finance to Nagorno – Karabakh region is very important. Azerbaijan should spend finance to restore Nagorno-Karabakh region.

• Creating the free economic zone in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Step 6. Continuation

• After the solution problem both countries – Armenia and Azerbaijan should strengthen confidence-building process.

• International community should help to these countries to guarantee the durable peace process.

• Thanks for your attention! • Any questions?

• cesursumerinli@gmail.com

• doktrina.jham@gmail.com