Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2814691

ReportfromtheCrimePreventionResearchCenter

ConcealedCarryPermitHoldersAcrosstheUnitedStates:2016

JohnR.Lott,Jr.

President

johnrlott@crimeresearch.org

484-802-5373

Formoreinformationcontact:

NikkiGoeser

CommunicationsDirector

(615)336-2851

nikki@crimeresearch.org

Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2814691

2

TableofContents

SUMMARY 3

BACKGROUND 4

ExplainingtheNumberofPermitsIssued 10

DeterringCrime 10

TheChangingCompositionofPermitHolders 12

PERMITHOLDERSAREEXTREMELYLAW-ABIDING 15

WHYARETHENUMBEROFPERMITSINCREASING 16

NUMBERSOFPERMITSBYSTATE 17

PERCENTOFADULTPOPULATIONWITHPERMITS

BYSTATE 20

PermitFeesbyState 23

NOTES 27

DATASOURCESFORNUMBEROFPERMITS 31

AppendixonAcademicResearch 36

AcademicAdvisoryBoard 39

3

Summary

DuringPresidentObama’sadministration,thenumberofconcealedhandgunpermitshassoaredtoover14.5million–a215%increasesince2007.Amongthefindingsofourreport:

■ Theincreaseinthenumberofconcealedhandgunpermitslastyearsetanotherrecord,increasingby1.73million.Thatisslightlygreaterthanpreviousrecordof1.69millionsetthelastyear.

■ 6.06%ofthetotaladultpopulationhasapermit.■ Intenstates,morethan10%ofadultshaveconcealedhandgunpermits.

Indianahasthehighestrate—15%.SouthDakotaisclosebehindwith14.7%.

■ Florida,Pennsylvania,andTexaseachhaveoveramillionresidentswhoareactivepermitholders.

■ Inanother11states,apermitisnolongerrequiredtocarryinallorvirtuallyallofthestate.Thusthegrowthinpermitsdoesnotprovideafullpictureoftheoverallincreaseinconcealedcarry.

■ Between2012and2016,instatesthatprovidedatabygender,thenumberofwomenwithpermitshasincreasedtwiceasquicklyasthenumberofmenwithpermits.

■ Someevidencesuggeststhatpermit-holdingisincreasingabout75%morequicklyamongminoritiesthanamongwhites.

■ Between2007and2015,murderratesfellfrom5.6to4.7(preliminaryestimate)per100,000.Thisrepresentsa16%drop.Overallviolentcrimefellby18percent.Meanwhile,thepercentageofadultswithpermitshassoaredby190%.

■ Regressionestimatesshowasignificantassociationbetweenincreasedpermitownershipandadropinmurderandviolentcrimerates.Eachonepercentagepointincreaseinratesofpermit-holdingisassociatedwitharoughly2.5percentdropinthemurderrate.Thisholdstrueevenafteraccountingforthenumberofpolicepercapita,demographics,andthepercentageofthepopulationthatisincarcerated,

■ Concealedhandgunpermitholdersareextremelylaw-abiding.InFloridaandTexas,permitholdersareconvictedofmisdemeanorsandfeloniesatone-sixthoftherateatwhichpoliceofficersareconvicted.

4

Background

“Ithinkthatwe’vegottoreigninwhathasbecomeanalmostarticleoffaiththatanybodycanhaveagunanywhere,anytime.AndIdon’tbelievethatisinthebestinterestofthevastmajorityofpeople....carryinggunsinpublicplaces....”

HillaryClinton,May6,2016attheNationalCouncilforBehavioralHealth

"Youcansaywhatyouwant,butiftheyhadguns--ifourpeoplehadguns,iftheywereallowedtocarry--itwouldhavebeenamuch,muchdifferentsituation."

DonaldTrumpspeakingaftertheParisandSanBernardinoTerroristattacks,November14,2015inBeaumont,Texas.

5

“Morepeoplewouldhavebeenkilled[ifsomeoneattheOrlandoNightclubmassacrehadapermittedconcealedhandgun].”

BillClintonspeakingattheClintonGlobalInitiativeAmericaConferenceonJune14,2016

Whetherpeopleshouldbeallowedtocarrypermittedconcealedhandgunshasbecomeacontentiousissueinthisyear'spresidentialcampaign.

AsimpleGoogleTrendssearchshowsthatpeople’sinterestinconcealedcarryhasspikedinthewakeofrecentmasspublicshootings.Takethethreeattacksthatoccurredlastfall.InterestsimilarlyspikedaftertheattacksinOrlandoandelsewhere.

Theseattackshavealsobeenfollowedbysharpincreasesinthenumberofpermitsbeingissued.Withover1.73millionnewconcealedhandgunpermitsissuedinjustthelastyear—bringingthetotalto14.5million—AmericanshaveclearlydonemorethansimplylookupinformationontheInternetaboutconcealedhandgunpermits.

Overtheyears,moreandmorestateshaveadoptedlawsallowingindividualstoobtainconcealedcarrypermits.Illinoiswasthelaststatetodoso,issuingitsfirstpermitsinMarch2014.EvenWashington,D.C.finallystartedissuingpermitsearlierthisyear.Today,permittedconcealedhandgunsareallowedineveryjurisdictionoftheUnitedStates.

Buttherulesvarygreatlyfromstatetostate.Therearenofeesortraining

6

requirementsintheelevenstatesthatdonotrequirepermits.Theaveragefeeforafive-yearpermitis$74.AtoneendisIllinois,whichchargesa$150feeandrequires16hoursoftraining.Thetrainingmaycost$250,resultinginatotalmonetarycostofabout$400.Bycontrast,SouthDakotahasnotrainingrequirementandchargesonly$10forafour-yearpermit.Similarly,Pennsylvaniahasnotrainingrequirementandcharges$19forafive-yearpermit.

Notsurprisingly,concealedcarryismuchmorepopularinstateswherepermitsarerelativelyinexpensiveandeasytoobtain.

Thisreportwillfocusontheincreaseinconcealedcarry.Obviously,theimportantthingfromacrimepreventionstandpointiswhetherpeopleactuallycarryguns,notwhethertheyareallowedtodoso.

It’snotjustthatmorestatesnowallowconcealedcarry.Therehasalsobeenanincreaseinpermitswithineachstate.Thelongerthatconcealedcarrylawshavebeenineffect,themoretimethatpeoplehavehadtoapplyforandreceivepermits.Butthereappearstobeanotherfactor:PresidentObama’selectionin2008.NotonlydidObama’selectionincreasegunsales,italsoincreasedthenumberofconcealedhandgunpermits.

Previously,theincreaseinpermitshadbeenrelativelyslow,growingfromroughly2.7millionpermitholdersin1999to4.6millionin2007.ButthenumberofconcealedhandgunpermitsexplodedduringtheObamapresidency.InDecember2011,theGovernmentAccountabilityOfficeestimatedthattherewereatleast8millionconcealedhandgunpermits.ByJune2014,itwas11.1million.Now,in2016,thenumberisuptoover14.5million.

Inotherwords,duringtheeightyearsfrom1999to2007,thenumberofpermitsincreasedbyabout240,000annually.Duringthenextfouryears,thenumberofpermitssurgedby850,000annually.Then,in2012and2013,theyearlyincreaseacceleratedto1,550,000.Then1,690,000lastyearand1,730,000thisyear.

Therapidincreaseinconcealedcarrypermitsismirroredbyarapidincreaseingunsales.TheNationalInstantCriminalBackgroundCheckSystem(NICS)checkssoaredfrom11.2to23.1millionbetween2007and2015.Salesin2016havegrownatanevenfasterpace.

Pollsshowalessdrasticincreaseingunownership.Butpollingreliesonpeople’swillingnesstorevealwhethertheyownagun,whichmaybeaffectedbymassshootingsorbygrowingdistrustofgovernment.1

7

Thebackgroundcheckmeasurehastheproblemofnotbeingabletotellusthenumberofpeoplebuyingguns.Somepeopleundergomultiplechecks,andsometimesmultiplegunsaresoldwithasinglecheck.Furthermore,peoplewhohavealreadypassedaconcealedcarrybackgroundcheckarenotalwaysrequiredtoundergoanotheroneforbuyingagun.

Concealedhandgunpermitdataisathirdmeasureofgunownership.Butthenumberofpermitsclearlyunderestimatesthetruenumberofpeoplewhocanlegallycarryconcealedhandguns.Therearethreereasonsforthis.

1) PermitsarenotrequiredintenstatesaswellasvirtuallyallofMontana.Generally,peopleinthosestatesonlyobtainpermitssothattheycancarryconcealedwhentravelingoutsideoftheirhomestate.Withnofeesorotherrequirements,thesestatesareprobablytheoneswherepeoplemostfrequentlylegallycarryconcealedguns.

2) Dataisnotreadilyavailableforafewstates.Forexample,NewHampshireonlycollectsdataonpermitsissuedtonon-residents,thoughweweregivenaconservativeestimate.AlabamaandNewYorksimplydon’tcollectthisdataatallonthestatelevel,anditisaverycumbersomeprocesstoobtaindatafromalargenumberofindividualcountiesorcities.Wewouldcollectdataforsomecountiesandthenassumethatrateissimilarfortherestofthestate.

3) Forsomestates,thedataisoneormoreyearsoldandthusmissestherecentgrowthinpermits.

Asmoreandmorestatesdecidenottorequirepermits,thenumberofpeoplewhocanlegallycarryahandgunwillincreasinglyoutpacethenumberofpermitholders.

Duetooldandmissingdata,14.5millionisundoubtedlyanunderestimateofthetotalnumberofAmericanswithpermits.Ontheotherhand,atleast687,840ofthesepermitsare“non-residential”permits,someofwhichareissuedtopeoplewhoalreadyhaveconcealedhandgunpermitsfromtheirhomestates.Mostprobablygetanon-residentialpermitinplaceoftheirstatepermitsimplybecausepermitsfromstatessuchasUtahandFloridaarehonoredinthevastmajorityofstates.Mostofthesenon-residentialpermitsareissuedbyUtahandFlorida.

8

Asthemaponthenextpageshows,everypartofthecountryhasbothstateswithover10percentoftheadultpopulationwithconcealedhandgunpermitsandhasastatethatalsodoesn’trequirepeopletohaveapermittocarry.

Tosummarize,thetotalnumberofpermitsintheUSisatleast14.53million.Addinpeoplewholegallycarrywithoutapermit,andthenumberclearlybecomesmuchlarger.ThetotalnumberofAmericanswithpermitscouldpossiblybelowerthan14.53million,butismostlikelyinexcessofthatfigure.

9

Percentofadultpopulationwithpermitsbystate

10

ExplainingtheNumberofPermitsIssued

Inagivenstate,thepercentageofadultswithpermitscanbeeasilyexplainedbythecostsofobtainingapermit,howmanyyearsconcealedcarrylawshavebeenineffect,andwhethergovernmentofficialshavediscretioninissuingpermits.2

Amongourfindings:

--Each$10increaseinfeescausesahalfapercentagepointdecreaseintheproportionofadultswithpermits.

--Each10yearsthatthepermitlawhasbeenineffectcausesa1.5percentagepointincreaseintheproportionofadultswithpermits.

--Governmentdiscretioninissuingpermitsisassociatedwithatwo-thirdsreductioninthepercentageofadultswithpermits.

DeterringCrime

Manyfactorsaffectcrimerates,amongthem:arrestandconvictionrates,policingpolicies,prison,demographics,income,poverty,andeducation.Butconcealedcarrylawsarealsopartofthisstory,especiallywhenalargepercentageofthepopulationhaspermits.Theoverwhelmingmajorityofpeer-reviewedacademicresearchbyeconomistsandcriminologistsconcludesthatownershipofpermittedconcealedhandgunscausesareductioninviolentcrime.Thedebateisbetweenthoseclaimingareductionincrimeandthosedenyinganyeffect(forasurvey,seeLott,“Whatabalancingtestwillshowforright-to-carrylaws,”UniversityofMarylandLawReview(2012):1205-1218).

Mostresearch,however,focusesonwhatstatesallowright-to-carry,notthemorerelevantquestionofhowmanypeopleareactuallycarrying.(Onlypeer-reviewedstudiesbyJohnLottinthesecondandthirdeditionsofMoreGuns,LessCrime[UniversityofChicagoPress,2000and2010]usethenumberofpermitstomeasuretheimpactofconcealedcarrylaws).Empiricaltestsshouldmeasurewhethercrimeratesfellrelativelymoresharplyinthosestateswiththelargestpercentageofpermitholders.

In2014,thesevenstatesthatallowedconcealedcarrywithoutapermithadmuchlowerratesofmurderandviolentcrimethandidthesevenjurisdictionswiththelowestpercentageofpermitholders.Indeed,themurderratewas31percent

11

lowerinthestatesnotrequiringpermits.Theviolentcrimeratewas28percentlower.

Comparedtotherestofthecountry,the25stateswiththehighestratesofpermit-holdingexperiencedmarkedlylowerratesofmurderandviolentcrime.

Ofcourse,suchacomparisonisfartoosimplistic.Therearemanyfactorsthatinfluencecrime,andsimple,cross-sectionalcomparisonsareunabletoaccountforallofthem.Wecanaccountfordifferencesacrossstatesonlybylookingathowcrimeratesvarybeforeandafterchangesinastate’spermitrules.

Stateshaveadoptedconcealedhandgunlawsindifferentyearsandissuedpermitsatdifferentrates.Thisallowsforrevealingcomparisons(seeAppendixforalargeandgrowingbodyofpeer-reviewedliterature).Onemustlookacrossstatesandcomparechangesincrimerateswithchangesintheratesofpermitholding.Doingsohasconsistentlyrevealedaverystrongrelationshipbetweenmorepermitsandlessviolentcrime(e.g.,Lott,MoreGuns,LessCrime,UniversityofChicagoPress2010andLott,2012).

Ouranalysispresentedheredoesn’tprovidesuchsophisticatedestimatessimplybecausethenecessarydatawillnotbeavailableforatleastacoupleofyears.Thus,thisreportshouldonlybeviewedassuggestive.3

Insteadofjustcomparingstatesthatdon’trequirepermitswiththosethatdo,itisalsopossibletolookatstatesthatrequirepermits.Afteraccountingforthepercapitanumberofpoliceandnewprisonadmissionsaswellasdemographics,thisstatelevelpermitdatasuggeststhateachonepercentagepointincreaseinthepercentoftheadultpopulationholdingpermitsisroughlyassociatedwitha25percentdropinthemurderrate.4

Sincethelateststatelevelcrimedataisonlyavailablethrough2014,the2011and2014permitandmurderdatashowsthatthosestatesthathadthebiggestincreasesinpermitshadthebiggestpercentagedropinmurderrates.A10percentincreaseintheshareoftheadultpopulationwithpermitsreducesthemurderrateby1.4percent.5

12

TheChangingGenderofPermitHolders

Dataforsevenstatesshowageneralupwardtrendinthepercentageofpermitholderswhoarewomen.

■ Arizona:thepercentageofpermitholderswhoarewomenrosefrom20.7%in2012to21.2%in2016

■ Florida:from18%inMay2012to24.1%inMay2016.

■ Indiana:from18.0%inJune2012to22.7%inMarch2015.

■ Louisiana:from18.3%in2009to24.8%in2014.

■ NorthCarolina:from21.3%inJune2012to27.5%inMarch2015

■ NorthDakota:from11.2%in2010to24.9%in2014.

■ Tennessee:from23.3%in2008to31.2%in2016.

■ Texas:from17.26in2004to25.8%in2015.

■ WashingtonState:between2005and2014,“thegrowthrateforwomengettingnewpermits[was]twiceasfastasthatofmen.”6

Ineightstateswherewehavedatabygender,since2012thenumberofpermitshasincreasedby161%forwomenandby85%formen.

Thereisalsosomeverylimiteddataonpermitissuancebyrace.Texasprovides

13

detailedinformationonbothraceandgenderfrom1996through2014.7Thestate’sdataindicatethatpermittinghasincreasedfastestforblacks,followedcloselybyAsians.Whilewhitesstillholdthevastmajorityofpermits,thenumberofblackpermitholdershasgrownmorethantwiceasquicklyasthenumberofwhitepermitholders.

Thegrowthinpermit-holdingbyAsians,blacks,andAmericanIndianswasbyfarthefastestaftertheminimumtrainingrequirementswerereducedfrom10hourstofourin2013.Between2012and2014,thenumberofblackpermitholdersincreasedfrom10,389to17,594.Asianpermitholdersgrewfrom3,286to5,822.Reducingthecostofobtainingpermitsseemstohavehaditsbiggestimpactonminorities.

Whenpermitdataisbrokendownbyraceandgender,wefindthatratesofpermitholdingamongAmericanIndian,Asian,black,andwhitefemalesallgrewmuchfasterthantheratesformalesinthoseracialgroups.Concealedcarryhasincreasedmostrapidlyamongblackfemales.From2000to2015,therateofgrowthwas3.81timesfasterthanamongwhitefemales.

14

15

PermitHoldersareExtremelyLaw-abiding

Itisveryrareforpermitholderstoviolatethelaw.Inordertoappreciatehowincrediblyrarethoseproblemsare,oneneedstorememberthatthereareover12.8millionpermitholdersintheUS.Indeed,itisimpossibletothinkofanyothergroupintheUSthatisanywherenearaslaw-abiding.

Togetanideaofjusthowlaw-abidingconcealedhandgunpermitholdersare,weneedonlycomparethemtopolice.AccordingtoastudyinPoliceQuarterly,policecommittedanaverageof703crimesperyearfrom2005to2007.8113oftheseinvolvedfirearmsviolations.Thisislikelytobeanunderestimate,sincenotallpolicecrimesreceivemediacoverage.Theauthorsofthestudymayalsohavemissedsomemediareports.

Sohowlaw-abidingarepolice?Withabout685,464full-timepoliceofficersintheU.S.from2005to2007,wefindthattherewereabout103crimesperhundredthousandofficers.FortheU.S.populationasawhole,thecrimeratewas37timeshigher--3,813perhundredthousandpeople.

Perhapspolicecrimesareunderreportedduetoleniencyfromfellowofficers,butthevastcrimegapbetweenpoliceandthegeneralpopulaceisreallyundeniable.

Concealedcarrypermitholdersareevenmorelaw-abidingthanpolice.BetweenOctober1,1987andJune30,2015,Floridarevoked9,999concealedhandgunpermitsformisdemeanorsorfelonies.9Thisisanannualrevocationrateof12.8permitsper100,000.In2013(thelastyearforwhichdataisavailable),158permitholderswereconvictedofafelonyormisdemeanor–aconvictionrateof22.3per100,000.10CombiningthedataforFloridaandTexasdata,wefindthatpermitholdersareconvictedofmisdemeanorsandfeloniesatlessthanasixththerateforpoliceofficers.

Amongpolice,firearmsviolationsoccuratarateof16.5per100,000officers.AmongpermitholdersinFloridaandTexas,therateisonly2.4per100,000.10Thatisjust1/7thoftherateforpoliceofficers.Butthere'snoneedtofocusonTexasandFlorida—thedataaresimilarinotherstates.

16

WhyistheNumberofPermitsIncreasing?

Thesurgeinconcealedhandgunpermitscorrespondscloselywithopinionpollsonguns.TakeaseriesofpollsbythePewResearchCenter.InDecember2012,respondentssaidbyamarginof48-to-37percentthatowningagun,“protectedthemfrombeingcrimevictims”asopposedto“puttingpeople’ssafetyatrisk.”11ByDecember2014,people’spositiveimpressionofgunshadgrowntoamarginof57-to-38.

SimilarchangeswerefoundinpollsbyGallupandbyABCNews-WashingtonPost.12Theyaskamorenarrowquestion:whetherhavingaguninthehomemakesthehomesaferormoredangerous.Thechangehasbeendramatic.In2000,Gallupfoundthatonly35percentofAmericansthoughtthatowningagunmadetheirhomesafer.By2014,thatnumberhadsoaredto63percent.

It'snotjustthatAmericansthinkthathavingagunmakesthemsaferasindividuals.Theyalsofeelbetterknowingthattheirneighborsarearmed.ARasmussenpollfromthispastJunefoundthata68-to-22percentmarginAmericans“feelsaferinaneighborhoodwheregunsareallowed.”13

ApollbyPEWhelpstoexplainwhytherehasbeensuchalargeincreaseinconcealedhandgunpermitsamongblacksandwomen.Thepollshowsa25percentagepointincreaseintheproportionofblackswithafavorableviewofguns.Thisisthelargestincreaseofanygroup.Theincreaseamongallwomenwas11percentagepoints,andtheincreaseamongmenwas8percentagepoints.

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Table1:NumberofPermitHoldersbyState

State ActivePermits

DataUpdated

Alabama 513,209 June,2016

Alaska† 8,770 June,2016

Arizona† 272,622 June,2016

Arkansas† 202,722 June,2016

California 59,808 December31,2015

Colorado 248,478 December31,2015

Connecticut 229,000 March3,2016

Delaware 13,275 July,2016

DistrictofColumbia 74 May17,2016

Florida††

1,581,742 total/ 1,369,923 residential June30,2016

Georgia 945,000 December31,2015

Hawaii 168 March21,2013

Idaho† 130,760 June14,2016

Illinois 180,583 June14,2016

Indiana 728,976 June14,2016

Iowa 267,149 December31,2015

Kansas† 100,493 January31,2016

Kentucky 277,972 December31,2014

Louisiana 154,707 December31,2015

Maine† 36,000 March18,2015

Maryland 16,152 April30,2016

Floridaisthestatethathasissuedthemostconcealedcarrypermitsat1.58million,followedbyPennsylvaniawith1.2million.

18

Massachusetts 360,263 June1,2016

Michigan 556,136 June1,2016

Minnesota 221,712 February1,2016

Mississippi† 46,598 June21,2016

Missouri 160,184 December31,2012

Montana* 50,300 June1,2016

Nebraska 48,579 June1,2016

Nevada 104,123 June1,2016

NewHampshire

34,315 non-residential/ at least 44,000 residential March20,2015

NewJersey 1,200 2012-2013

NewMexico 40,330 June20,2016

NewYork¥ 40,794 September2014

NorthCarolina 530,092 June20,2016

NorthDakota 40,872 December31,2015

Ohio 549,730 March31,2016

Oklahoma 256,612 May27,2016

Oregon 226,255 February1,2016

Pennsylvania 1,193,146 June20,2016

RhodeIsland 2,813 February1,2016

SouthCarolina 276,084 December31,2015

SouthDakota 91,785 May31,2016

Tennessee 560,933 June1,2016

Texas 1,052,073 May1,2016

Utah††

660,012total/230,306residential June,2016

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Vermont† Nopermitsissued

Virginia 426,280 June13,2016

Washington 515,065 January1,2016

WestVirginia† 147,801 February28,2015

Wisconsin 300,000 March24,2016

Wyoming† 27,347 January19,2016

TOTAL 14,533,094

†Stateswherepermitsnotrequiredtocarrywithinthestate.Permitsonlyobtainedtocarryoutsideofstate.

††Permitsnotrequiredtocarryin99.4percentofMontanaandasimilarpercentageofIdaho.Forthosepeople,theonlyreasonthattheywouldobtainapermitistocarryinotherstates.

*Utah'stotalpermitsaswellasthoseissuedonlytoresidentsareincludedhere.

ºNewHampshire’spermitnumbersonlyincludeout-of-statepermits.

¥DataarenotavailableforNewYorkState,soweassumeda0.1%permittingratebasedonHerkimer,Suffolk,Monroe,andSuffolkCountiesaswellasNewYorkCityhttp://crimepreventionresearchcenter.org/2014/09/more-misleading-information-from-bloombergs-everytown-for-gun-safety-on-guns-analysis-of-recent-mass-shootings/.ForNYC,GawkerusedaFOIAreleaseofNYPDlicensees.114pagesofcarrylicenseswith50nameseach=5,700.http://gawker.com/5974190/here-is-a-list-of-all-the-assholes-who-own-guns-in-new-york-city.

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Table2:RankingStatesbyPercentoftheAdultpopulationwithPermits

State

%ofAdultPopulationwithconcealedcarry

permit

Indiana 15.0%

SouthDakota 14.7%

Alabama 14.1%

Georgia 12.7%

Pennsylvania 12.2%

Utah†† 11.6%

Iowa 11.5%

Tennessee 11.4%

Idaho† 11.1%

WestVirginia† 10.4%

Washington 9.6%

Arkansas† 9.2%

Oklahoma 9.0%

Florida†† 8.7%

Kentucky 8.4%

Connecticut 8.4%

NewHampshire 7.5%

SouthCarolina 7.5%

Michigan 7.4%

Oregon 7.4%

NorthDakota 7.3%

21

NorthCarolina 7.1%

Wisconsin 6.9%

Massachusetts 6.9%

Virginia 6.8%

Montana* 6.4%

Wyoming† 6.3%

Ohio 6.3%

Colorado 6.1%

Minnesota 5.5%

Arizona† 5.4%

Texas 5.4%

Nevada 4.8%

Kansas† 4.8%

Louisiana 4.5%

Nebraska 3.5%

Missouri 3.5%

NewMexico 2.6%

Maine† 2.3%

Mississippi† 2.1%

Illinois 1.9%

Delaware 1.8%

Alaska† 1.6%

Maryland 0.4%

RhodeIsland 0.3%

NewYork¥ 0.3%

California 0.2%

NewJersey 0.0%

Hawaii 0.0%

22

DistrictofColumbia 0.0%

Vermont† Notavailable

†Stateswherepermitsnotrequiredtocarrywithinthestate.Permitsonlyobtainedtocarryoutsideofstate.Thesenumberswilldramaticallyunderestimatethetrueratethatgunsarelegallycarriedconcealedinthesestates.

*Permitsnotrequiredtocarryin99.4percentofMontana(areasoutsideofcitylimits).Forthosepeople,theonlyreasonthattheywouldobtainapermitistocarryinotherstates.

††OnlyFloridaandUtah'sresidentialpermitsareincludedhere.

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Table3:CostofGettingPermitsbyState

State PermitTypeInitialHandgunCarryPermitFee

LengthPermitisValid(years)

Costtocarryfor5years

AlabamaConcealedhandgunpermit $10peryear

1-5years(chosenbyapplicant) $50

Alaska†Constitutionalcarry/permitforreciprocitywithotherstates $89.75 5 0

Arizona†Constitutionalcarry/permitforreciprocitywithotherstates $60.00 5 0

Arkansas†Constitutionalcarry/permitforreciprocitywithotherstates

$144.94age65+$93.44 5 0

CaliforniaCarryconcealedweaponslicense(MayIssueonly)

$100localprocessingfeeplusadditionalfees 2 $250

ColoradoConcealedhandgunpermit

$52.50plusadditionalfees 5 $52.50

Connecticut PermittocarryPistolsorRevolvers $70.00 5 $70

Delaware Licensetocarryconcealeddeadlyweapon $65 5 $65

DistrictofColumbia Concealedcarryhandgunpermit $75 2 $187.50

Florida Concealedweaponorfirearmslicense $70 7 $70

GeorgiaFirearmslicense

$75.00averagefee.Variesbycounty. 5 $75

Hawaii Licensetocarryhandgun $10.00 1 $10

Idaho† Concealedhandgunpermit $20.00 5 0

24

Illinois Concealedcarryhandgunlicense $150 5 $150

IndianaLicensetocarryhandgun

$49.95or$134.95lifetime 4 $62.44

Iowa Permittocarryweapons $50.00 5 $50

Kansas† Constitutionalcarry/permitforreciprocitywithotherstates

$100toAttorneyGeneral.$32.50tolocalSheriff'sOffice 4 0

Kentucky Permittocarryconcealedhandgun $60.00 5 $60

Louisiana Concealedhandguncarrypermit

$125.00or$500lifetime 5 $125

Maine†Constitutionalcarry/permitforreciprocitywithotherstates $35 4 0

Maryland Handgunwearandcarrypermit

$75.00plusfingerprintfees 3 125

Massachusetts Firearmcarrylicense $100 6 $100

Michigan Concealedpistollicense $100 4 $125

Minnesota

Permittocarrypistol

nottoexceed$100.determinedbySheriff 5 $100

Mississippi†Constitutionalcarry/permitforreciprocitywithotherstates $80 5 $80

Missouri Concealedcarrygunpermit $100 5 $100

Montana* Concealedcarryhandgunpermit $50 4 $50

Nebraska Permittocarryaconcealedhandgun $100 5 $100

Nevada Concealedcarryhandgunpermit $98.25 5 $98

NewHampshirePistol&RevolverLicense

$10resident$100non-resident 4 $10

25

NewJersey ConcealedCarryhandgunpermit $65 2 $65

NewMexico Concealedhandguncarrypermit $100 4 $100

NewYork¥Firearmslicensetocarryconcealed

generallynottoexceed$10.Costvariesbycounty 5 $10

NewYorkCityConcealedcarryhandgunlicense $429.75 3 $430

NorthCarolinaConcealedhandgunpermit

$80plus$10fingerprints 5 $90

NorthDakota Concealedweaponspermit $25 5 $25

Ohio Licensetocarryaconcealedhandgun $67 5 $67

Oklahoma Selfdefenseactlicense $85 5 $85

Oregon Concealedhandgunlicense $65 4 $65

Pennsylvania Licensetocarryhandgun $20 5 $20

RhodeIsland Licensetocarryaconcealableweapon $40 4 $40

SouthCarolina Concealedweaponpermit $50 5 $50

SouthDakota ConcealedPistolPermit $10 5 $10

Tennessee

Handguncarrypermit

3yrs$102.50),4yrs$115.00,5yrs$127.50,6yrs$140.00,7yrs$152.50Lifetime$500(renewalN/A)

3-7(AlsoLifetimepermit) $140

Texas Licensetocarryahandgun $140 5 $140

UtahConcealedFirearmPermit

$39.00resident$49.00non-resident 5 $39

Vermont†NOPERMITSREQUIRED/DOESNOTISSUEPERMITS N/A N/A 0

VirginiaConcealedhandgunpermit

nottoexceed$50.00 5 $50

26

Washington Concealedpistollicense $36 5 $36

WestVirginia†Constitutionalcarry/permitforreciprocitywithotherstates

$75plus$25ifapproved=$100 5 $100

Wisconsin Concealedweaponlicense $40 5 $40

Wyoming†Constitutionalcarry/permitforreciprocitywithotherstates $75 5 $75

Average $74

27

Notes

*RujunWangandRogerLottprovidedvaluableresearchassistanceinproducingthisreport.

1.Thereareanumberofpollsthatshowthisincreasingdistrustofgovernment.ThePewResearchCenterdescribesthetrustingovernmenta“nearhistoriclows.”Seeforexample,PewResearchCenter,PublicTrustinGovernment:1958-2014,November13,2014(http://www.people-press.org/2014/11/13/public-trust-in-government/).

2.Tocalculatewhatinfluenceswhetherpeoplegetpermits,weranasimpleregressionontheright-to-carryandmayissuestates,excludingthesixstatesthatdonotrequirethatpeoplehavetohavepermitstolegallycarryaconcealedhandgun.Theabsolutet-statisticsareshowninparentheses.

Percentofadultpopulationwithpermits=0.00148(1.61)yearsthattheright-to-carrylawhasbeenineffect+0.0229(0.84)whethertheright-to-carrylawwasineffectbefore1977-0.044(1.87)MayIssuelawwithdiscretiononwhogetsapermit–0.00051(2.71)Feesforgettingpermit–0.00035(0.17)Hoursoftrainingrequiredtogetpermit+0.085(3.21)Constant

Average

YearsRight-to-CarryLawineffectby2014 11.14

Fee $66.99

Hours 5.57

3.Regressingthenaturallogofthemurderrateonthepercentoftheadultpopulationwithpermits,thenumberoffull-timeswornpoliceofficersper1,000Americans,andatimetrendfinds:

ln(murderrate)=-.2499(7.15)percentofadultswithpermits-.8197(5.50)policeper1,000Americans–0.0023(3.41)PrisonPopulationper100,000people+

28

0.0068(2.51)yeartimetrend-8.95(1.76)Constant

Usingthepercentofthepopulationinprisoninsteadofatimetrendproducedverysimilarresults.

4.Toestimatethisweranacouplesimpleregressionsonthemurderrateonthepercentageofadultpopulationwithpermitsaswellaswithandwithoutstateandyearfixedeffects.Thereisalotofnoiseintheseestimatesbothbecausethepermitnumberscomefrommanydifferentyearsaswellastheestimatednumberofmurdersin2013.Theseestimateshaveagreatdealofmeasurementerrorandshouldonlybetakenassuggestive.Thatsaid,thesimplestestimateregressingthemurderrateonthepercentageoftheadultpopulationwithpermitsproducesacoefficientandabsolutet-statisticsof-12.68(1.66).Withfixedeffects,theestimatewas6.8(0.82).

5.Regressingthepercentchangeinmurderratesonthepercentchangeintheshareoftheadultpopulationbetween2011and2014givesusthis:

Percentchangeinmurderrates=-.136(1.38)thepercentchangeintheshareoftheadultpopulation+.212(0.99)Constant

F-statistics=1.92,AdjustedR-squared=0.0242

WeusedtheGAOreportonpercentofthepopulationwithpermitsfor2011(http://www.gao.gov/assets/600/592552.pdf).TherewereobviouserrorsintheGAOreportforMaineandConnecticut.Forexample,in2011,theGAOstatesthattherewereonly4,000concealedhandgunpermits.Thatwouldimplyanamazing725percentincreaseinpermitsbetween2011and2013.Forapermittingsystemthathadbeenaroundfordecadesandnorecentchangeintheirlaws,itwouldbesurprisingtohaveanystateseethattypeofchange.Maine’sSpecialInvestigationsUnittoldusthattherewereinfact24,000in2011.PossiblytheGAOsimplyleftoffthenumber“2”whenthenrecordedthisinformation.InConnecticut,wehadasmallernumberofpermitsin2011(115,000).

6.JustinMayo,BrianM.Rosenthal,andErikaSchultz,“Concealed-carrypermitsskyrocket,especiallyforwomen,”TheSeattleTimes,May31,2014(http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/concealed-carry-permits-skyrocket-especially-for-women/).

29

7.Thosewhoindicatedthattheywereofmultipleraceswereexcludedbecausepeople’swillingnesstosaythattheyareofmultipleraceshaschangedovertime.Thusitisnotpossibletoknowhowmuchofthechangeisduetopeople’swillingnesstoidentifythemselvesthiswayoranactualchangeinthenumberofpeopleinthiscategory.

8.PhilStinson,JLiederbachandTLFreiburger,“ExitStrategy:AnExplorationofLate-StagePoliceCrime,”PoliceQuarterlyDecember201013:413-435.Dataonthenumberoffull-timelawenforcementemployeesisavailablefromtheFBIUniformCrimeReportsfrom2005to2007,Table74(https://www2.fbi.gov/ucr/05cius/data/table_74.html).

9.ConcealedWeaponorFirearmLicenseSummaryReport,October1,1987-June30,2015(http://www.freshfromflorida.com/content/download/7499/118851/cw_monthly.pdf).

10.ThenumberofpermitholdersinTexasin2013isavailablehere(https://www.txdps.state.tx.us/rsd/chl/reports/ActLicAndInstr/ActiveLicandInstr2013.pdf).Theconvictionratesofpermitholdersduringthatyearisavailablehere(https://www.txdps.state.tx.us/RSD/CHL/Reports/ConvictionRatesReport2013.pdf).

11.PewResearchCenter,“GrowingPublicSupportforGunRights:MoreSayGunsDoMoretoProtectThanPutPeopleatRisk,”December10,2014(http://www.people-press.org/2014/12/10/growing-public-support-for-gun-rights/).

12.JustinMcCarthy,“MoreThanSixin10AmericansSayGunsMakeHomesSafer,”Gallup,November7,2014(http://www.gallup.com/poll/179213/six-americans-say-guns-homes-safer.aspx?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_content=morelink&utm_campaign=syndication).ScottClementandPeytonCraighill,“MajorityofAmericanssaygunsmakehomessafer,”WashingtonPost,April18,2013(http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/04/18/majority-of-americans-say-guns-make-homes-safer/).

13.RasmussenReports,“AmericansPreferLivinginNeighborhoodsWithGuns,”June12,2015

30

(http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/current_events/gun_control/americans_prefer_living_in_neighborhoods_with_guns).

31

DataSourcesforNumberofConcealedHandgunPermits

StateDataSource

Alabama RequestsfordatafromsecondandthirdlargestcountiesJune29,2016.

Alaska*EricGaffney,Records&LicensingSupervisor,DivisionofStatewideServices,AlaskaDepartmentofPublicSafety(907)269-5634

Arizona* ArizonaDepartmentofPublicSafety,Statistics-ConcealedWeaponspermitshttp://www.azdps.gov/Services/Concealed_Weapons/Statistics/

Arkansas BillSadler,ArkansasStatePolice-PublicInformationOfficer

California BrandonCombs,CalgunsFoundation

ColoradoCOLORADOGENERALASSEMBLY-STATUTORYREPORTShttp://www.leg.state.co.us/library/reports.nsf/ReportsDoc.xsp?documentId=D6727350F8E058DB87256E6600773612

Connecticut emailreplyfromtheConnecticutDepartmentofEmergencyServicesandPublicProtection

Delaware DelawareCriminalJusticeInformationSystem

DistrictofColumbia AndreaNoble,"FederaljudgehaltsD.C.’s‘goodreason’concealed

carryrequirement,"WashingtonTimes,May18,2015http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/may/18/dc-good-reason-gun-ownership-requirement-halted-by/?page=all

Florida FloridaDepartmentofAgricultureandConsumerServicesDivisionofLicensingConcealedWeaponorFirearmLicenseSummaryReporthttp://www.freshfromflorida.com/content/download/7499/118851/cw_monthly.pdf

32

Georgia Georgiacarry.org

HawaiiGAOsayszeropermits.LegallyArmedsays183securityguardsin2010.http://www.hawaiireporter.com/hawaii-firearms-registrations-reach-record-high-after-70-percent-jump/123

Idaho TeresaBaker,PublicInformationOfficer,IdahoStatePolice,700S.StratfordDr.,Meridian,ID83642208.884.7122

Illinois RichardPearson,IllinoisStateRifleAssociation

Indiana IndianaStatePoliceFirearmsLicensingStatisticsbyCountyhttp://www.in.gov/isp/files/ISP_Firearms_Licensing_Statistics_2015_2nd_Quarter.pdf

Iowa LaurenBlanchard,"Boom:Iowagunpermitssoarfive-foldsince2010,"FoxNewsJanuary23,2015http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/01/23/boom-iowa-gun-permits-soar-five-fold-since-2010/

Kansas TimCarpenter,"Legislatureapprovesunlicensedconceal-carrybill,"TopekaCapital-Journal,March26,2015http://cjonline.com/news/state/2015-03-25/legislature-approves-unlicensed-conceal-carry-bill

Kentucky KentuckyStatePolicehttp://www.kentuckystatepolice.org/ccdw/ccdw_reports.html

Louisiana LouisianaDepartmentofPublicSafetyhttp://www.lsp.org/handguns.html

MaineSergeantMichaelP.JohnstonSpecialInvestigationsUnit164StateHouseStationAugusta,ME04333Office:(207)624-7212

Maryland SergeantJohnCasey,MarylandStatePoliceHandgunPermitUnitCommander

33

MassachusettsMichaelaDunne|ManagerofLawEnforcement&JusticeServicesMassachusettsDepartmentofCriminalJusticeInformationServices,200ArlingtonStreet,Suite2200Chelsea,MA02150p.617.660.4682|f.617.884.4601michaela.dunne@state.ma.us

Michigan MichiganStatePolicehttp://www.michigan.gov/documents/msp/ccw_county_report_273948_7.pdf

Minnesota MinnesotaAssociationofDefensiveFirearmInstructorshttp://www.madfi.org/permitcount.asp

Mississippi Email:oeasterling@dps.ms.gov<oeasterling@dps.ms.gov>;

Missouri Email:MissouriStateHighwayPatrolmshppied@mshp.dps.mo.gov

Montana† JohnBarnes,DepartmentofJustice,Montana

Nebraska NebraskaStatePatrol/Criminalinvestigationdevision,nsp.webmaster@nebraska.gov

Nevada NevadaDepartmentofPublicSafetyhttp://johnrlott.blogspot.com/2015/03/nevadas-concealed-handgun-permits-surge.html

NewHampshire SergeantSeanR.Haggerty,NewHampshireStatePolice,PermitsandLicensingUnit

NewJersey NewJerseyStatePolice/Firearminvestigationoffice,GlennRoss#5092,AssistantUnitHead,lpp5092@gw.njsp.org

NewMexico NewMexicoDepartmentofPublicSafetyhttp://www.dps.state.nm.us/index.php/nm-concealed-carry/concealed-handgun-carry-statistics/

34

NewYorkNYC Assuminga0.1%permittingratebasedonHerkimer,Suffolk,

Monroe,andSuffolkCountiesaswellasNewYorkCityhttp://crimepreventionresearchcenter.org/2014/09/more-misleading-information-from-bloombergs-everytown-for-gun-safety-on-guns-analysis-of-recent-mass-shootings/,forNYCGawkerFOIAreleaseofNYPDlicensees.114pagesofcarrylicenseswith50nameseach=5,700.http://gawker.com/5974190/here-is-a-list-of-all-the-assholes-who-own-guns-in-new-york-city

NorthCarolina NCAttorneyGeneral,emailfrompublicinformationofficer

NorthDakota NorthDakotaAttorneyGeneralhttp://www.ag.nd.gov/BCI/CW/GeneralInfo/CWLIssuedCounty.pdf

Ohio OhioAttorneyGeneralhttp://www.ohioattorneygeneral.gov/Files/Publications/Publications-for-Law-Enforcement/Concealed-Carry-Publications/Concealed-Carry-Statistics

Oklahoma http://www.ok.gov/osbi/

OregonDepartmentofStatePolice,CentralRecordsSection,503-378-3725

Pennsylvania uniformedPublicInformationOfficerTpr.AdamReed,PennsylvaniaStatePolice,areed@pa.gov

RhodeIsland WilliamKaralis<WKaralis@riag.ri.gov>

SouthCarolina SouthCarolinaLawEnforcementDivisionhttp://www.sled.sc.gov/CWPStats.aspx?MenuID=CWP

SouthDakota Ashley.Klapperich@state.sd.us/605-773-5002

Tennessee TNDeptofSafetyandHomelandSecurityhttp://crimepreventionresearchcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Tennessee-permits-06102015.png

35

Texas TomBenning,"TexasLegislature'spushforgunissuestriggeredbypolitics,"DallasMorningNews,April13,2015;thenumberforDecember31,2014isavailableherehttps://www.txdps.state.tx.us/rsd/chl/reports/ActLicAndInstr/ActiveLicandInstr2014.pdf

Utah†† UtahDepartmentofPublicSafety,FirearmStatisticalReview,FirstQuarter2015http://bci.utah.gov/wp-content/uploads/sites/15/2015/01/2015Q1.pdf

Vermont* Nopermitsrequiredtocarry.Nopermitsofferedforthosewhocarryoutofstate.

Virginia obtainedfromCorinneGeller,PublicRelationsDirector,VaStatePolice

Washington WashingtonDepartmentofLicensing,360.902.3600

WestVirginia KrisWiseMaramba,","LoganBanner(WestVirginia),August13,2014http://www.loganbanner.com/news/news/50264451/Concealed-weapons-permits-quadrupled-in-West-Virginia

Wisconsin AnneE.Schwartz,DirectorofCommunicationsandPublicAffairs,DepartmentofJustice,OfficeofAttorneyGeneralBradSchimel,17W.MainSt.P.O.Box7857,Madison,WI53707-7857,DirectPhone:(608)266-6686

Wyoming* AnthonyBouchard,WyomingGunOwners

36

Appendixofsomeacademicresearchshowingthatright-to-carrylawsreduceviolentcrime

JohnR.Lott,Jr.andDavidB.Mustard,Crime,Deterrence,andRight-to-CarryConcealedHandguns,JournalofLegalStudies,1997.

WilliamAlanBartleyandMarkACohen,TheEffectofConcealedWeaponsLaws:AnExtremeBoundAnalysis,EconomicInquiry,April1998.(Copyavailablehere)

StephenG.BronarsandJohnR.Lott,Jr.,CriminalDeterrence,GeographicSpillovers,andRight-to-CarryConcealedHandguns,AmericanEconomicReview,May1998.

JohnR.Lott,Jr.,“TheConcealed–HandgunDebate,”JournalofLegalStudies,January1998:221-243

DavidMustard,TheImpactofGunLawsonPoliceDeaths,JournalofLawandEconomics,October2001.

BruceL.BensonandBrentD.Mast,PrivatelyProducedGeneralDeterrence,JournalofLawandEconomics,October2001.

FlorenzPlassmannandT.NicolausTideman,DoestheRighttoCarryConcealedHandgunsDeterCountableCrimes?:OnlyaCountAnalysisCanSay,JournalofLawandEconomics,October2001.

CarlisleE.Moody,TestingfortheEffectsofConcealedWeaponsLaws:SpecificationErrorsandRobustness,JournalofLawandEconomics,October2001.

DavidE.OlsonandMichaelD.Maltz,Right-to-CarryConcealedWeaponLawsandHomicideinLargeU.S.Counties:TheEffectonWeaponTypes,VictimCharacteristics,andVictim-OffenderRelationships,JournalofLawandEconomics,October2001.

ThomasB.Marvell,TheImpactofBanningJuvenileGunPossession,JournalofLawandEconomics,October2001.

JohnR.Lott,Jr.andJohnE.Whitley,Safe-StorageGunLaws:AccidentalDeaths,Suicides,andCrime,JournalofLawandEconomics,October2001

JohnR.Lott,Jr.andJohnE.Whitley,MeasurementErrorinCounty-LevelUCR

37

Data,JournalofQuantitativeCriminology,June2003,Volume19,Issue2,pp185-198

FlorenzPlassmannandJohnWhitley,ConfirmingMoreGuns,LessCrime,StanfordLawReview,2003

EricHellandandAlexanderTabarrok,UsingPlaceboLawstoTest“MoreGuns,LessCrime,”AdvancesinEconomicAnalysisandPolicy,4(1):Article1,2004.

JohnR.Lott,Jr.andWilliamLandes,MultipleVictimPublicShootings,Bombings,andRight-to-CarryConcealedHandgunLaws:ContrastingPrivateandPublicLawEnforcement,publishedinTheBiasAgainstGuns(2003).

FlorenzPlassmannandJohnR.Lott,Jr.,MoreReadersofGunMagazines,ButNotMoreCrimes.

JohnRLott,Jr.,“MoreGuns,LessCrime”(UniversityofChicagoPress,2010,3rdedition).

CarlisleE.Moody,ThomasB.Marvell,PaulRZimmerman,andFasilAlemante,“TheDebateonShall-IssueLaws,”ReviewofEconomics&Finance,2014

MarkGius,“Anexaminationoftheeffectsofconcealedweaponslawsandassaultweaponsbansonstate-levelmurderrates,”AppliedEconomicsLetters,Volume21,Issue4,2014

CarlisleE.MoodyandThomasB.Marvell,“TheDebateonShall-IssueLaws,”EconJournalWatch,volume5,number3,September2008Itisalsoavailablehere.

CarlisleE.MoodyandThomasB.Marvell,“TheDebateonShallIssueLaws,Continued,”EconJournalWatch,Volume6,Number2May2009

CarlisleE.Moody,ThomasB.Marvell,andJohnR.Lott,Jr.,“DidJohnLottProvideBadDatatotheNRC?ANoteonAneja,Donohue,andZhang,”EconJournalWatch,Volume10,Number1,January2013

CarlisleE.MoodyandThomasB.Marvell,“OntheChoiceofControlVariablesintheCrimeEquation”byCarlisleE.MoodyandThomasB.Marvell,OxfordBulletinofEconomicsandStatistics,Volume72,Issue5,pages696–715,October2010.

JohnR.Lott,Jr.,MoreGuns,LessCrime:AResponsetoAyresandDonohue’s1999

38

bookreviewintheAmericanLawandEconomicsReview,YaleLaw&EconomicsResearchPaperNo.247,1999.

JohnR.Lott,Jr.,Right-to-CarryLawsandViolentCrimeRevisited:Clustering,MeasurementError,andState-by-StateBreakdowns,AmericanEnterpriseInstituteWorkingpaper,2004.

JohnR.Lott,Jr.,Commenton'TheDeterrenceofCrimeThroughPrivateSecurityEfforts:TheoryandEvidence',CrimePreventionResearchCenter,November2014.

39

Academicadvisoryboard

WilliamM.LandesistheCliftonR.MusserProfessorEmeritusofLawandEconomics,andSeniorLecturerattheUniversityofChicagoLawSchool.Mr.Landeshaswrittenwidelyontheapplicationofeconomicsandquantitativemethodstolawandlegalinstitutions,includingmultiplevictimpublicshootings,hijackingofairplanes,andthebailsystem.LandeshasbeenaneditoroftheJournalofLawandEconomics(1975–1991)andtheJournalofLegalStudies(1991–2000),ispastpresidentoftheAmericanLawandEconomicsAssociation,andisamemberoftheAmericanEconomicAssociation,theMontPelerinSociety,andtheCouncilofEconomicAdvisersoftheAmericanEnterpriseInstitute.HeisalsoaFellowoftheAmericanAcademyofArtsandSciences.

J.ScottArmstrongisaprofessorattheWhartonBusinessSchooloftheUniversityofPennsylvania.Heisinternationallyknownforhispioneeringworkonforecastingmethods.Mostrecently,hisresearchactivitieshaveinvolvedforecastingforterrorismandconflicts.HeisauthorofLong-RangeForecasting,themostfrequentlycitedbookonforecastingmethods.Heisaco-founderoftheJournalofForecasting,theInternationalJournalofForecasting,theInternationalSymposiumonForecasting,andforecastingprinciples.com.Heisaco-developerofnewmethodsincludingrule-basedforecasting,causalforcesforextrapolation,simulatedinteraction,structuredanalogies,andthe“indexmethod.”Inadditiontoforecasting,ProfessorArmstronghaspublishedpapersonsurveyresearch,educationalmethods,appliedstatistics,socialresponsibility,strategicplanning,andscientificpeerreview.

ArthurZ.Berg,M.D.isaDistinguishedLifeFellowoftheAmericanPsychiatricAssociationandformermemberoftheAPAViolenceTaskForce.HewasfoundingPsychiatrist-in-ChiefatBeverlyHospital(emeritus)andformerAssociateProfessorofPsychiatryatHarvardMedicalSchool.ArecentarticlethatDr.BerghadintheWallStreetJournalonmultiplevictimpublicshootingsisavailablehere.

TimGrosecloseistheMarvinHoffenbergProfessorofAmericanPoliticsatUCLA.Heholdsappointmentsinthepoliticalscienceandeconomicsdepartmentsattheuniversity.In1987,hereceivedhisB.S.inMathematicalSciencesfromStanfordUniversity.In1992,hereceivedhisPhDfromStanford’sGraduateSchoolofBusiness.HeistheauthorofovertwodozenscholarlyarticlesaswellasthebookLeftTurn:HowLiberalMediaBiasDistortstheAmericanMind.Giventheextensivemediabiasonguns,ProfessorGroseclose’sexpertiseonidentifyingmediabiaswillbeimportant.Hecontributestotheblog,www.Ricochet.com,and

40

isanactivetweeterat@Tim_Groseclose(https://twitter.com/Tim_Groseclose).Youcanlearnmoreabouthimandhiswritingsatwww.timgroseclose.com.

JonathanM.KarpoffistheWashingtonMutualEndowedChairinInnovationProfessorofFinanceattheUniversityofWashingtonFosterSchoolofBusiness.Karpoffhaspublishedpathbreakingresearchonthetopicsofcorporatecrimeandpunishmentaswellascorporategovernance.HeistheassociateeditorfortheJournalofFinance,JournalofFinancialEconomics,JournalofFinancialandQuantitativeAnalysis,ManagementScience,ManagerialandDecisionSciences,andTheNorthAmericanJournalofEconomicsandFinance.Hehasreceivedalonglistofacademicawards.

JoyceLeeMalcolmisthePatrickHenryProfessorofConstitutionalLawandtheSecondAmendmentatGeorgeMasonUniversityLawSchool.ShehasaPh.D.inhistoryandisinternationallyknownforherbooksGunsandViolence:TheEnglishExperience,HarvardUniversityPress(November24,2004),andToKeepandBearArms:TheOriginsofanAnglo-AmericanRight,HarvardUniversityPress(March2,1996).GunsandViolenceprovidesacomprehensivehistoryandexaminationofchangesinmurderratesinEnglandfromthemiddleagestothecurrentday.SheisaFellowoftheRoyalHistoricalSociety,andshehasheldpositionsatPrincetonUniversity,theMassachusettsInstituteofTechnology,andCambridgeUniversity.MalcolmalsoservedastheDirector,DivisionofResearchProgramsfortheNationalEndowmentfortheHumanitiesduring2005-2006.

ScottE.MastenisProfessorofBusinessEconomicsandPublicPolicyintheUniversityofMichiganStephenM.RossSchoolofBusiness,wherehehasbeenafacultymembersince1984.Aleadingscholarintheareaoftransactioncosteconomics,ProfessorMasten’sresearchfocusesonissuesattheintersectionoflaw,economics,andorganization.Inadditiontohisprimaryappointment,hehasheldappointmentsastheLouisandMyrtleMoskowitzResearchProfessorinBusinessandLawatMichigan,JohnM.OlinFacultyResearchFellowatYaleLawSchool,JohnM.OlinDistinguishedVisitingProfessorofLawattheUniversityofVirginiaLawSchool,andVisitingProfessorintheUniversityofMichiganLawSchool.HewasPresidentoftheInternationalSocietyforNewInstitutionalEconomicsin2008-09,isaco-editoroftheJournalofEconomics&ManagementStrategy,andservesontheeditorialboardsoftheJournalofLaw,Economics&OrganizationandManagerialandDecisionEconomics

CarlMoody,ProfessorofEconomics,William&Mary.ProfessorMoodyhaspublishedextensivelyontherelationshipsbetweenguns,crimeand

41

imprisonmentinsuchacademicjournalsasCriminology,HomicideStudies,theJournalofLawandEconomics,theJournalofLegalStudies,andtheJournalofQuantitativeCriminology.Heteachesmathematicaleconomicsandeconometrics.

PaulH.RubinistheSamuelCandlerDobbsProfessorofEconomicsatEmoryUniversity,andEditorinChiefofManagerialandDecisionEconomics.HehasbeenpresidentoftheSouthernEconomicAssociation.Hisresearchinterestshaveincludedcrime,thedeathpenalty,andguncontrol.HereceivedhisB.A.fromtheUniversityofCincinnatiin1963andhisPh.D.fromPurdueUniversityin1970.HeisaFellowofthePublicChoiceSociety,aSeniorFellowattheProgressandFreedomFoundation,anAdjunctScholarattheAmericanEnterpriseInstituteandtheGeorgiaPublicPolicyFoundation,andformerVicePresidentoftheSouthernEconomicsAssociation.Dr.RubinhasbeenSeniorStaffEconomistatPresidentReagan’sCouncilofEconomicAdvisers,ChiefEconomistattheU.S.ConsumerProductSafetyCommission,DirectorofAdvertisingEconomicsattheFederalTradeCommission,andvice-presidentofGlassman-OliverEconomicConsultants,Inc.,alitigationconsultingfirminWashington.