Post on 07-Aug-2015
Cristina Madrid-Lopez
Center for industrial Ecology, Yale University.
DEALING WITH THE WATER-FOOD-ENERGY NEXUS
EMBRACING COMPLEXITY
(IN INDUSTRIAL ECOLOGY)
THE CASE OF INDIAN PUNJAB (I)
Rural Population
5-9
15-19
25-29
35-39
50-59
70-79
1,000,000 0 1,000,000
RURAL
Million people
Age
Wo-men
Men
1,000,000 0 1,000,000
URBAN
Wo-men
Men
Country Agriculture
value added (% of GDP)
GDP (current
109 USD)
p.c. GDP
(current USD)
Life expectancy
at birth, (years)
Population,
106 people
Benin 32 6.6 690 58 9Rwanda 32 5.6 520 62 11
Togo 31 3.2 500 55 6Malawi 30 5.4 360 53 15
India 18 1,400 880 65 1,200Uttarakhand 10 12 1,200 -- 10
Punjab 31 42 1,500 72 28
Kerala 16 51 1,600 74 33
Strange Patterns
??
THE CASE OF INDIAN PUNJAB (II)
Oversized cereal production (4/27 mill ton)
1970 1980 1990 2000 20100
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
Wheat Maize RiceGram Cotton GroundnutsSugar cane Rapeseed and mustard Barley
Mill
ion
ha
1980 1990 2000 20100.0
500.0
1000.0
1500.0
2000.0K2O
P2O5
N
Mill
ion
To
nn
es
0.0
1,000.0
2,000.0
3,000.0
4,000.0
5,000.0
Private canals
Other
Mill
ion
ha
0.0
500.0
1,000.0
1,500.0
Electric
DieselMill
ion
s
High Impact
Water
Energy
Land
?
COMPLEXITY IN IE
Complex
Adaptive
Metabolic
Socio-Ecosystems
Society
Technol. Networks
Social Networks
Ecosystem
Other
Other
Other
JIE April´09, April’15
Services, Emergy
Understanding of Complexity Expands the Reach of industrial Ecology (Ehrenfeld 2009. JIE)
Indu
stria
l Eco
logy
THE CHALLENGES OF THE NEXUS
Example of complex systems Degrees of complexity
3. Different Levels1. Delimiting Systems
Energy
FoodWater
n (Punjab)Hierarchical networks
2. Different Scales
$ m3
haton
h
THE CHALLENGES OF THE NEXUS
Hierarchical networks
n
n-2
n-2
n-2
n-2
n-2
n-1 (Agriculture) n-1 (Industry) n-1 (Households)
Example of complex systems Degrees of complexity
3. Different Levels1. Delimiting Systems
Energy
FoodWater
2. Different Scales
$ m3
haton
h
THE CHALLENGES OF THE NEXUS
Hierarchical networks
n n-1 n-1 n-1
n-2 Rice
n-2 Wheat
n-2 Tractor
n-2 HH
n-2 Pums
Example of complex systems Degrees of complexity
3. Different Levels1. Delimiting Systems
Energy
FoodWater
2. Different Scales
$ m3
haton
h
THE CHALLENGES OF THE NEXUS
Hierarchical networks
Example of complex systems Degrees of complexity
3. Different Levels1. Delimiting Systems
Energy
FoodWater
2. Different Scales
$ m3
haton
h
n
Nodes
Arcs
Georgescu-Roegen
FUNDS =
FLOWS =
A PROPOSALThe Framework:
MuSIASEM (Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism)
(Giampietro 2003)
(Giampietro et al 2009)
Nexus(Giampietro et al 2014)
Property/system Societal Metabolism(s-1, s, s-1, s-2)
Ecosystem Metabolism(e-1, e, e-1, e-2)
BiophysicalExchange (Flows)
Social Flows Ecosystem Flows
Organization (Funds) Societal Integrity Ecosystem Integrity
B
A
D
C
Georgescu-Roegen
FUNDS =
FLOWS =
Nodes
Arcs
A PROPOSAL
Property/system Societal Metabolism(s-1, s, s-1, s-2)
Ecosystem Metabolism(e-1, e, e-1, e-2)
BiophysicalExchange (Flows)
Social Flows Ecosystem Flows
Organization (Funds) Societal Integrity Ecosystem Integrity
B
A
D
C
Social/Technological
(Flow/Hour)
Technological
(Flow)
Techn/Ecosystem
(Flow/ha)
Social
Human Activity (hours, relations, etc)
Ecosystem
Ecosystem fund (ha, m3, etc)
The Framework:
MuSIASEM (Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism)
(Giampietro 2003)
(Giampietro et al 2009)
Nexus(Giampietro et al 2014)
RESULTS
HA 220 Gh
INTERNATIONAL s+2
INDIA s+1
PUNJAB s
109 USD
Agriculture Production (s-1)Households (s-1)Other Paid Work (s-1)
ELP 1.8 USD/hrELP 0.9 USD/hr
ECOSYSTEM e
hm3
SW GW Salt Nitr Fluor0%
50%100%
Imp...
Water Land
Pressure106 Tone
ECOSYSTEM e
AG3%
PW*6%
HH91%
Wheat42%
Rice28%
Crops17%42006 2007 2008 2009 2010
0%
5%
10%
15%Remittances as % of GDP
PUNJAB s
Food (1015 J)
Energy (1015 J)
Water (109 m3)
GDP (109 USD)
800
300
200
Imports Internal supply Exports
?
?
Support PriceSubsidies
20
56,000hm3
RESULTS
HA 220 Gh
INTERNATIONAL s+2
INDIA s+1
PUNJAB s
109 USD
Agriculture Production (s-1)Households (s-1)Other Paid Work (s-1)
ELP 1.8 USD/hrELP 0.9 USD/hr
ECOSYSTEM e
hm3
SW GW Salt Nitr Fluor0%
50%100%
Imp...
Water Land
Pressure106 Tone
ECOSYSTEM e
AG3%
PW*6%
HH91%
Wheat42%
Rice28%
Crops17%42006 2007 2008 2009 2010
0%
5%
10%
15%Remittances as % of GDP
Support PriceSubsidies
20
56,000hm3
RESULTS
HA 220 Gh
INTERNATIONAL s+2
INDIA s+1
PUNJAB s
109 USD
Agriculture Production (s-1)Households (s-1)Other Paid Work (s-1)
ELP 1.8 USD/hrELP 0.9 USD/hr
ECOSYSTEM e
hm3
SW GW Salt Nitr Fluor0%
50%100%
Imp...
Water Land
Pressure106 Tone
AG3%
PW*6%
HH91%
Wheat42%
Rice28%
Crops17%42006 2007 2008 2009 2010
0%
5%
10%
15%Remittances as % of GDP
Support PriceSubsidies
20
56,000hm3
CONCLUSIONS
Including complexity in IEBetter delimitation of systemsHelp to locate and connect methodologies: LCA, IO, MFAIdentify relevant indicators and narratives
LCA
SociologicalStudies
MFA
GIS
IO Climatic Models
Nexus Fill Data Gaps “Sudoku Effect” Connect Water, Energy and other
Networks
n
n -1
n -1
Policy and Planning Identification on major constraints Complex definition of feasible options “Sit at the table”
Possibility of discussion
CREDITS
Giampietro et al. 2014. An Innovative Accounting Framework for the Food-Energy-Water Nexus. Application of the MuSIASEM approach to three case studies. (Environment and natural resources management WP, 53, FAO)
Giampietro et al. 2014. Resource Accounting for Sustainability Assessment. The nexus between energy, food, water, and land use. (Routledge)
Madrid et al. 2013. Water Use Sustainability in socioecological Systems. A multi-Scale Integrated Approach. Bioscience 63(1)
Madrid & Giampietro, in press. The water metabolism of socio-ecological systems: Reflections and a conceptual framework. Journal of Industrial Ecology.
Collaboration FAO
Center for Industrial Ecology
Further Research on the Nexus and fracking
IANEX (2015-2017). Integrated analysis of the nexus: the case of hydraulic fracturing
7FP Marie Curie Fellowship
EMBRACING COMPLEXITY: DEALING WITH THE WATER-FOOD-
ENERGY NEXUS
Cristina.MadridLopez@yale.educristinamadrid.wordpress.com ppt
Center for Industrial Ecology
Social (Punjab) Ecosystem (Watershed)
Water Exchange
Water Flows (2010) (30 year pattern) Water Flows
Organization
Societal Funds Ecosystem Funds
India
F 20·106 tonMI 0.2 USD/kg
Punjab SocietyHA 241·109hF 4·106 ton
Punjab Ecosystem
International Market
F 3·106 ton
Other functionsCereal Production
HA 3 %F 27·106 ton
HA 97%
WY 0.5 ton/m3
ClimateSupply 460 mm
Transboundary
Supply ?
Surface bodies
Soil
Aquifers
Appropriation:Erosion 45%
Appropriation:Ramsar in Danger 100%
Appropriation:Water table-1 m/year
Groundwater
Soil Moisture
Surface Water
Recharge21
Recharge21
Recharge?
WFL 31 km3
WFL 26 km3
WFL 1·km3
WFL 15·km3
Production Factor
Human rightCultural element
WMR 9·m3/h
WMR 3·m3/h
WMR 95 Lpd