Complexity is the Enemy!How Agile Practices Allow Us to Operate in a VUCA World

Mathias Eifertexcella.com | @excellaco

excella.com | @mathiase | @excellaco

Mathias Eifert

Agile and Executive Coach at Excella

CSP-SM, CSP-PO, CAL 1, KMP, CLP, ICP-ATF/ACC

Applied Lean & Agile principles for 20 years

Process Improvement

BA / Software Developer / Solution Architect

ScrumMaster / Lean-Agile Coach

@mathiase | @excellaco | #TriAgile2019

Mathias.Eifert@excella.com

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WHY…?

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VUCA

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It’s messy out there…

Illustration based on Jeroen Kraaijenbrink

V U C A

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Cynefin

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ComplicatedComplex

SimpleChaotic

VUCA

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ComplicatedComplex

SimpleChaotic

VUCA

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Predictability Matters

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Planning & Analysis

UnpredictablePredictable

More = Better Results

DiminishingReturns

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Management Focus

UnpredictablePredictable

• Procedures• Efficiency

• Outcomes• Alignment

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Expected Outcomes

UnpredictablePredictable

Fail-Safe Safe-To-Fail

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Resilience

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Framing / Scoping Drive Context

Case Study: Point-of-Sale SystemTechnology upgrade Obvious

Future-proofing Complicated

Open ended innovation questions Complex

Resistance to protect mission-criticalfunctionality Chaotic

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ComplicatedComplex

SimpleChaoticCliff of

Complacency

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Falling Over the Cliff:healthcare.gov

• High complexity: policy, organizational, technical

• Plan-driven management with extensive upfrontspecification

• Lack of unified leadership and visibility

• Plan not updated to reflect reality

• Testing revealed scale of problems too late

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ComplicatedComplex

SimpleChaotic

?Unawareness results in default behavior

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Complexity is the enemy…

… and so is oversimplification!

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ComplicatedComplex

SimpleChaotic

SenseCategorizeRespond

SenseAnalyzeRespond

ProbeSense

Respond

ActSense

Respond

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Probe-Sense-Respond

≈Inspect and Adapt

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#1 Feedback Loops

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#2 Sprint/Kanban CommitmentsComplicatedComplex

SimpleChaotic

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#2 Sprint/Kanban CommitmentsComplicatedComplex

SimpleChaotic

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Small Chunks of Work

#3

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#4 Decomposition

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Plan-Driven Decomposition

Problem Solution

WBS

Based on a whiteboard sketch by Bas Vodde

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Problem Solution

WBS

Based on a whiteboard sketch by Bas Vodde

Plan-Driven Decomposition

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Agile Decomposition

Problem Solution

Based on a whiteboard sketch by Bas Vodde

Learning

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#5 Planning Poker

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Small :: Cross-functional :: Empowered

#6 Agile Teams

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#7 Evolutionary Architectures& Refactoring

Dependencies amplify• Complexity• Uncertainty• Volatility

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“First make it easy to change, then make the easy change”

Kent Beck

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#8 Test Automation

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#9 Infrastructure As Code

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ComplicatedComplex

SimpleChaotic

AGILEdoesn’t have a

BRAINBill Scott

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http://agilemanifesto.org/

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Closing the Value Loop

???DevOpsAgile Delivery

&

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Closing the Value Loop

Measure Impact

Lean Discovery/HDD

DevOpsAgile Delivery

&

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Isolating Complexity

Subproblem A

Problem

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Subproblem A

Isolating Complexity

Problem

Subproblem B

Subproblem A

Key Points

• VUCA = Unpredictability

• Decompose problems into smaller problems

• Agile practices manage or contain complexity

• Complexity is the enemy…but also the source of innovation!