Colonel Vasile CERBU, PhD

9898No.No. 1/2020 1/2020

The Arctic Ocean, the smallest and shallowest of the world’s oceans, opens two new maritime communications routes and has an extremely harsh polar climate throughout the year. The region is a mixture of geopolitical and economic interests, hosting a very diverse range of natural resources, especially hydrocarbons, but also gold, silver, uranium and other rare metals, whose exploitation is unsustainable for the time being. The Arctic area is a space of geopolitical disputes between the riparian states, which try to impose its jurisdiction over a large area of the territory, but also of non-riparian powers, such as China, Japan, Germany. Due to the importance it has acquired lately, the riparian states, especially the Russian Federation, but also those with interests in the area, have begun to reconfigure their military presence beyond the Polar Circle. The stakes have transformed Arctica into an objective of a “new big geopolitical game”.

Keywords: the Arctic, natural resources, geopolitical disputes, arming, geopolitical game.

THE ARCTIC THE ARCTIC – A DISPUTED TERRITORY,– A DISPUTED TERRITORY,

OBJECTIVE OF A “NEW GEOPOLITICAL GREAT GAME” –OBJECTIVE OF A “NEW GEOPOLITICAL GREAT GAME” –

Colonel Vasile CERBU, PhD2nd Infantry Division “Getica”, Buzău

Colonel Valentin CIORANU582th Reconnaissance Regiment “Vlad Țepeș”, Brăila

ROMANIANROMANIANMILITARYMILITARYTHINKINGTHINKING

The Arctic – A Disputed Territory, Objective of a “New Geopolitical Great Game” –The Arctic – A Disputed Territory, Objective of a “New Geopolitical Great Game” –

99 INTELLIGENCE AND SECURITYINTELLIGENCE AND SECURITY

INTRODUCTION Before approaching geopolitical or geo-economic issues, it is

necessary to make an overview of the area.The Arctic Ocean is located in the North Pole region and is the

smallest of the world’s oceans. Although it has the smallest surface (approximately 788,000 Km2), it is wider than Europe, it has a relatively circular shape and the centre approximately on the North Pole. It is bounded by the northern shores of Europe, Asia (Siberia) and North America continents as well as those of Greenland. It communicates freely with the Atlantic Ocean and through a narrow strait (Bering Strait) with the Pacific Ocean.

Figure 1: The Arctic – positioning Source: www.maps-of-arctic

Vasile CERBU • Valentin CIORANUVasile CERBU • Valentin CIORANU

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The shores of the three continents bordering it are very sinuous, forming many peninsulas, bays, estuaries, and fjords. One of the main features of this ocean is that it has no contact with the continents that delimit it except through marginal seas. Another important feature is the presence of ice1.

In the Arctic Ocean there are two maritime communications: • The North Passage represents the shortest route through

northern Siberia between western Russia (Murmansk port) and eastern Russia (Vladivostok port);

• The Northwest Passage which crosses the Arctic waters through the north of the planet, from the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific Ocean.

Even though, not long ago, the two paths were inaccessible, today, thanks to modern icebreakers and special-purpose ships, they are frequently used.

The region has a harsh polar climate, which is influenced throughout the year by the cold polar air, and is characterised by very low temperatures, between -32-360 C and 0-100 C (sometimes much lower). Precipitations range from 75 to 500 mm/year.

In the past, the Arctic Ocean had a number of islands that are currently under water and many of them are on the Asian continental shelf and fewer around the other continents (North America, Asia and Europe). The most important islands are: Makarov, Bredly, Andreev, Djils, Explorers of the North Pole, Keenan, Spitsbergen, etc.

THE IMPORTANCE OF THE ARCTICThe Arctic region represents an interesting mix of economic and

geopolitical interests, from energy resources to access routes and trade routes. The economic importance of the area increased with the political-military conflicts in the Middle East area, which forced the search for alternatives, with the rise of India and China as great economic powers with growing energy resource needs and as a result of climate warming and melting glaciers that make the exploitation of hydrocarbon resources more accessible, estimated at over 25% (some estimate them at 50%) of the world’s unexploited resources (estimated at about 90 billion barrels of oil and 1,680 trillion cubic meters

1 ro.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oceanul_Arctic, retrieved on 07.05.2019.

The Arctic region represents an interesting mix of economic and geopolitical interests, from energy resources to access routes and trade routes.

of gas). The interest for this area from an economic point of view is also accentuated by the presence of gold, silver, uranium, lead, zinc and nickel deposits2.

The importance of the Arctic is also amplified by the possibility of opening 2 new navigation routes, called passages: the Northwest Passage through the North Canadian space and the North Passage, alongside the Russian Federation coastline and to the North of the Norwegian coastline. This is possible because the ice sheet melts at amazing speed, and the surface of the Arctic ice has shrunk, which makes it possible for navigation to take place longer for part of the year without the use of icebreakers. According to the journal “Science”, which refers to a report that was released by the US Arctic Research Commission, it is estimated that, in about 10 years, ships that are

2 http://blog.adrianmariusdobre.eu/, retrieved on 07.05.2019.

Figure 2: The Arctic resources Source: http://romanian.ruvr.ru/news

The importance of the Arctic is also amplified

by the possibility of opening 2

new navigation routes, called passages: the

Northwest Passage

through the North Canadian

space and the North Passage,

alongside the Russian Federation

coastline and to the North of the Norwegian

coastline.

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not especially equipped will be able to sail in these passages during the summer3 and through the North Passage, along the coast of the Russian Federation and along the north coast of Norway.

In the following, we will present some aspects, appreciated as being more relevant regarding the two passages.

The Northwest Passage has a length of 5,780 km, being a maritime route that runs from northern Europe through northern North America, and connects the Arctic, Atlantic and Pacific Oceans4. This passage has generated one of the inevitable ongoing conflicts between the US and Canada

The Northwest Passage is made up of several islands, crossed by numerous straits and has become a reason for political dispute because the US and Canada cannot agree on the legal status of this archipelago.

Canada wants the waters that make up the North-West Passage to be treated as inland water on which to exercise full sovereignty.

Figure 3: The Northwest Passage – positioningSource: www.maps-of-arctic

The US wants the passage to be recognised as a strait at the international level, which greatly reduces Canada’s ability to exercise its sovereignty over these waters5. The seaworthiness of the passage

3 https://wsl.jw.org/ro.walorg/d/r34/lpm/102003848, retrieved on 25.05.2019.4 www.referat.ro/referate_despre_oceanul_arctic_referat-html, retrieved on 26.05.2019.5 http://www.cass_ro.org/arctica/Alexandru_Grumaz, retrieved on 19.05.2019.

over a longer period of time during the year would shorten the transport distance between Europe and Asia by approximately 8,400 km, compared to the route through the Panama Canal or by 22,000 km, compared to the Cape Horn route, for oil tankers that cannot navigate the Panama Canal.

Another reason for the dispute is the natural resources that are estimated to be hidden in the depths. This issue has implications for both Canada and the US.

If the area becomes an international strait, Canada would be in the vicinity of international waters, which can be used freely, without control, by freighters around the world. Moreover, the free international movement involves risks, one being the terrorist one ‒ terrorist groups could easily reach the American continent and internationalise their status.

For the US, providing passage navigation brings direct and indirect benefits as a result of lower transportation costs for US companies operating in Asia or exploiting Alaska’s resources and exporting to European markets. Another effect would be that it could lose Canada as an ally, in favour of Russia (which Canada has been close to in recent years)6.

International mechanisms are difficult to apply to this conflict. UNCLOS is difficult to apply because no agreement has been reached ‒ the passage is considered land (being frozen much of the year), as appreciated by the natives (Canada’s main argument), or water (as appreciated by the US).

There is no binding mechanism for conflict resolution in this area, the convention (UNCLOS) having no real power over the states that have ratified it, let alone over those that have not ratified it (the US case).

If climate change in the area continues at this rate, it is possible to reignite old conflicts between the US and Russia, but in another international context, in which the existence of other world powers with growing interests in the area will further complicate the decision making. We can appreciate that the geopolitical changes in the area and the great interests of the states can influence the relations between allies (when their interests are in antagonistic positions)7.

6 Ibid.7 Final Report at Naval Operations in an Ice-free Arctic Symposium, 17-18 April 2001,

available online on http://www.star.nesdis.roaa.gov/star/documents/2007/IceSymp/Final ArcticReport.2001.pdf, retrieved on 19.05.2019.

The seaworthiness of the passage

over a longer period of time

during the year would shorten the transport

distance between Europe

and Asia by approximately

8,400 km, compared

to the route through the

Panama Canal or by 22,000 km, compared to the Cape Horn route,

for oil tankers that cannot

navigate the Panama Canal.

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The Northern Passage or the Northern Seaway, as it is called by the Russians, is the shortest waterway between Asia and Europe, stretching along the entire northern shore of the Russian Federation, between the ports of Arkhangelsk, Murmansk and Vladivostok. This smoother route is an alternative to the traditional routes between Shanghai and Rotterdam through the Suez Canal, about 20,000 km long. The route shortens the distance by about 5,000 km or the duration by 10-12 days (of the duration, on the traditional route, of about 50 days), reduces fuel and insurance costs for ships and cargo, avoids areas threatened by piracy, and most importantly, avoids the Malacca Strait, this energy jugular of China, which is the main shipping passage between the Pacific and Indian Oceans8.

We can say that the traditional routes through the Suez Canal and the Panama Canal have an accelerated deterioration regarding the degree of operability of the navigation and of risk regarding the exploitation of the infrastructure by the fact that, in relation to the increasing volume of traffic, it is approaching their maximum capacity.

In this way, the attention and efforts to find new navigation routes, one being the North Passage, are justified.

Figure 4: The Northern Seaway

The attempt to find a northern navigation route dates back to the time of the great geographical discoveries, when the Portuguese and the Spanish held the monopoly of navigation on the seas and oceans

8 Alexandru Ionuț Cățoi, “Northern Maritime Route” available online at Geopolitis.ro/calea_maritima_de_nord/.

The attempt to find a northern navigation route dates back to the time of the great geographical discoveries, when the Portuguese and the Spanish held the monopoly of navigation on the seas and oceans that made the connection between Europe and the Far East.

that made the connection between Europe and the Far East. The first attempt belongs to Russia, which employs the Dutch navigator Barents, who fails to reach this goal, reaching only the Novaya Zemlya Islands. Following this failure, Russia organises land expeditions to the east in Siberia and the Far East, also researching the northern shores. The expeditions aimed at finding an alternative sea route were resumed during the time of Peter the Great and later, the reference being the attempts of naval officer Vitus Bering, who explores the shores of the Kamchatka Peninsula and Alaska, demonstrating that the Far East is not linked to the American continent. For the first time, the Nordic route was crossed by a team led by Swedish scientist Nordenskjold, funded by a Russian mine owner named Sibriakov in 1797. The author of this expedition believes that the route will not be viable and sustainable in order to promote trade at sea. But the area is gaining strategic importance with the coming into power of the communists, who have developed the port infrastructure, a fleet of icebreakers and the means and infrastructure needed for air surveillance. The peak of transport activities on this route is reached in 1987, later declining until several years ago9.

But the shipping industry is cyclical, and after a period of decline, there is a new upswing following global warming, reducing the surface area of the Arctic Ocean ice, potential resources and growing interests for this region, manifested not only by the Arctic countries, but also by non-Arctic countries such as China, Japan, Germany, etc. In the last period, there has been a marked increase in the demand and issuance of navigation permits on this route, estimating a major impact on the economic activities in the future10. The fact that this sea route is of major imp ortance is underlined by the legislative proposal drafted by expert s of the Russian Ministry of Defence, which imposes rules that must be respected by all ships wishing to use the North Passage. In the version that will be approved and imposed as international legal norms, all ships will have to announce their intention to sail 45 days in advance, to allow a Russian navigator to board to monitor the entire

9 Alexandru Ionuț Cățoi, op.cit.10 Mioara Stoica, “A new commercial route has been launched among the glaciers of the Arctic

Ocean”, available online at epochtimes_romania.com/news/s_a_lansat_o_nouă_ruta_comerciala_ printre_ghetarii_din_oceanul_artic_201482, retrieved on 30.05.2019.

The fact that this sea route

is of major importance is underlined by the legislative

proposal drafted by experts of the Russian Ministry

of Defence, which imposes rules that must be respected by

all ships wishing to use the North

Passage.

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voyage11. At the same time, the justification must include the name of the ship, its purpose, the route and the period of navigation, and the characteristics of the ship such as length, width, weight, draft and type of engine power12. Failure to follow these rules can lead to punitive measures such as seizure or even sinking of ships. The stated purpose of this legal act is to protect the environment and the safety of naval traffic, but in fact the real purpose hides Russia’s intention to ensure full control over navigation. To better understand the geopolitical confrontations and the directions of military systems development in the region, it is necessary to also analyse the obligatory crossing point, the connection between the North Passage and the Northwest Passage called the GIUK Gap. In military terms, the GIUK Gap is the acronym for Greenland, Iceland and the United Kingdom and is important as it allows the naval connection between the North Sea/North Passage and the Atlantic Ocean/North West Passage in the event that the English Channel is blocked.

It proved its importance in the Second World War, but also during the Cold War, especially after 1950, because it represented the only exit of Soviet submarines from the Arctic Ocean to the Atlantic Ocean. NATO, worried about Soviet submarines threatening, which had their base in the Kola Peninsula, based its military strategy in the region on blocking this gap, by installing surveillance systems for obtaining information, and arranging platforms with anti-submarine weapons in the region (nuclear-powered submarines, frigates, etc.)13.

After the fall of the USSR, this point lost its military importance, but maintained its economic importance, because the area was filled with most of the underwater cables that provided communications between Europe and North America, knowing that a great deal of communications is done through fiber optic supports.

In the new conditions, in the new geopolitical context, the gap is the crossing point of the Russian submarines but it is vulnerable in the sense that the Russians can supervise and monitor the communications through fiber optics, and in certain situations they can even destroy them.

11 https://www.digi24.ro/externe/Rusia_ameninta_ca_va_scufunda_navele_straine_care_traverseaza_oceanul_artic_1093522, retrieved on 30.05.2019.

12 https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/201903/izvestia_what_awaits_foreign_military_versus_northern_ sea_route/, retrieved on 31.05.2019.

13 Alexander Grumaz, A new front for Russia, available online at https://adevarul.ro/international /artica_un _nou_front_de_lupta_pentru_rusia/.../index.html, retrieved on 29.05.2019.

To better understand the geopolitical confrontations and the directions of military systems development in the region, it is necessary to also analyse the obligatory crossing point, the connection between the North Passage and the Northwest Passage called the GIUK Gap.

THE GEOPOLITICAL ACTORS IN THE REGION AND THE DISPUTES BETWEEN THEMIn the early years after the end of the “Cold War” in the 1990s,

the Arctic area attracted little attention in the international media. This huge territory of approximately 21,000,000 km2 located between the North Pole and the North Polar Circle, which was of extraordinary strategic importance in the 1980s, for both US and USSR naval forces, has begun to attract increasing interest as a result of global warming and the implications this phenomenon has for mankind in general and especially for the states bordering on its regions, in particular. The global warming changes the economic coordinates in the sense that the exploitation of resources can be executed more easily14. The measurements carried out last year have shown general trends of continuous decrease of the ice layer, so the recent projections indicate summers without ice between the years 2030-203515.

But this changing climate phenomenon generates a change in geopolitics in the sense that a “good economic area at global level” is considered a fierce reason for conflict for this “gold mine” alleged or challenged by the global actors in the area16.

Because geo-economics is highly important, the right to property must be demonstrated and/or imposed, even if the exploitation

14 politica.org.ro/geopoliticaa-z/geopolitica_conflictul_arctic_un_razboi_rece_intr-o_zona_inghetata/22362/, accessed on 08.05.2019.

15 Ibid.16 Ibid.

Figure 5: The GIUK Gap satellite view© Flickr/NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

This huge territory of

approximately 21,000,000 km2

located between the North Pole and the North

Polar Circle, which was of

extraordinary strategic

importance in the 1980s, for

both US and USSR naval forces, has

begun to attract increasing

interest as a result of global

warming and the implications this

phenomenon has for mankind

in general and especially for the states bordering on its regions, in

particular.

108No.No. 1/2020 1/2020

of these resources is inefficient at the moment. Another argument is that, compared to energy resources in the Middle East and Africa, where political violence and instability are present, Arctic energy reserves can be exploited without such risks.

Figure 6: Territorial disputesSource: http://romanian.ruvr.ru/news

According to US institutions (eg. US Ecological Survey) assessment of energy resources in the Arctic region, the largest oil reserves in the region are Alaska’s Arctic Basin, Amerasia Basin north of Canada, the eastern and western basins of Greenland, as well as in northern Russia (north and south of the White Sea, east of the Siberian Sea, Chukchi Sea and Barents Sea)17.

According to the UN Convention on Maritime Law (UNCLOS), the sovereignty of the states extends to 200 nautical miles, which is an exclusive economic zone. In some cases, states can extend their jurisdiction up to 350 nautical miles by submitting geological evidence to the UN commission regarding the Limits of the Continental Shelf (CLCS), within 10 years from the ratification of the maritime law. The political actors involved in this process are Russia, Canada, Denmark and Norway, as coastal states of the Arctic area, acting within the UN Convention. The US acts as a coastal state, but outside the UN framework, because it has never ratified this convention18.

17 According to Keith J. Bird and collective, “Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal: Estimates of Undiscovered Oil and Gas of the Arctic Circle”, available online at https//pubs.gov/fs/2008/3049/ retrieved on 20.05.2019.

18 According to P. Singh, “What Arctic Is Anyways?”, available online at https//idso.in/publications retrieved on 09.05.2019.

Because geo-economics is highly important, the right to property must be demonstrated and/or imposed, even if the exploitation of these resources is inefficient at the moment.

CLCS does not deal with territorial disputes, being a technical body. The boundaries of the plateau are established by the states, through bilateral agreements, between the five coastal states in the Arctic Ocean. A map of the possible areas of interest of the coastal states in the Arctic shows that they intersect only on small sections, the conclusion being that the possible disagreements could be resolved through negotiations, which does not imply the presence of NATO in any form, because these are problems that do not require a military solution. In other words, the Arctic is a “territory of dialogue” as President Putin said in 2010 at the meeting of the Arctic Committee representatives19.

Figure 7: The Arctic ‒ Territorial disputes

19 Ibid.

A map of the possible areas

of interest of the coastal states

in the Arctic shows that

they intersect only on small sections, the

conclusion being that the possible

disagreements could be

resolved through negotiations,

which does not imply the

presence of NATO in any

form, because these are

problems that do not require a

military solution.

110No.No. 1/2020 1/2020

In 2001, Russia submitted a request to the UN to take possession of 1,240 underwater miles on what is called the Lomonosov Ridge, arguing that this underwater mountain is an extension of the Siberian surface. In this regard, they organised a scientific expedition, in 2007, that placed a Russian flag on the bottom of the Arctic water, under the North Pole. Subsequently, strategies and plans were developed to enable the development and exploitation of the area. If the commission recognises this right, the Russian Federation will expand its exclusive economic zone almost all the way to the North Pole20.

In 2015, Russia submitted a new request to the UN, claiming a territory of over one million km2in the Arctic, as a result of clear evidence that part of the Lomonosov Ridge, the Mendeleev Ridge and Podvodnikov Valley belong to them21. A response to this request has not yet been received.

Canada, by its geographical position, issues a request for a large portion of the Arctic Ridge, including claims that the Lomonosov Ridge is an underwater extension of Ellesmere Island. Canada’s request to the UN since December 2013 is a source of open conflict with Russia and Denmark. Arctic sovereignty is appreciated by Canadians as a priority, the Canadian government acting in this respect for the acquisition of eight military (armed)22 icebreakers, execution of military exercises, high-level political visits, establishment of a fortified military base on the northern tip of Ellesmere Island23.

The interests of the coastal states of the Arctic are also demonstrated by the efforts made to exercise their authority, reflected in the image attached above24.

Denmark, in 2012, organised a scientific expedition to show that 155,000 km2 from the bottom of the Arctic Ocean, including the North

20 http://romanian.ruvr.ru/2014_10_30/Oamenii_de_stiinta_au_demonstrat_ca_Rusia_are_dreptul_sa_revendice_teritorii_arctice/0883/, retrieved on 20.05.2019.

21 According to Keith J. Bird and collective, “Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal: Estimates of Undiscovered Oil and Gas of the Arctic Circle”, loc. cit.

22 https//www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova_scotia/otawa_sign_288m_contact_fr_desing_of_artic_ships_11312194, retrieved on 16.05.2019.

23 https//www.ctnews.ca/Canadian_forces_carry_out_artic_training_exercises_1319026, retrieved on 17.05.2019.

24 According to Scott Borgerson and Caytlyn Antrim, “An Arctic Circle of friends”, available online on https//www.nytimes.com/2009/03/28/opinion/28borgerson, accessed on 17.05.2019.

Pole, are part of its area and should be included in the Kingdom of Denmark (in addition to Greenland and the Faroe Islands)25.

The question arises whether Russia, Denmark and the other Arctic neighbouring states intend to respect the law of the sea on the delimitation of borders. Moscow can only benefit from a peaceful evolution of the situation, because due to the Siberian coast, with a length of about 20,000 km, it acquires huge areas at the bottom of the Arctic Ocean and it is unlikely that it will risk these potential benefits by having problems with a small territory claimed by Denmark or Norway. The chances of finding and exploiting natural gas or oil in the near future near the North Pole are reduced or almost non-existent26.

When considering the role of Denmark27 in the geopolitics of the Arctic, the status of Greenland should be taken into consideration. Since 2009, it has wide autonomy (even though Denmark is the one that generates the kingdom’s foreign policy, including its autonomous territories). The distribution of state powers is gradually changing, due to the fact that Greenland is gaining influence and prestige internationally28.

In August 2019, a special event took place, US President Donald Trump made Denmark a proposal to start negotiations to buy Greenland and was rejected. The reasons behind this act are the huge natural resources of the island in hydrocarbons, iron, zinc, gold, rare metals, etc., whose exploitation may become possible as a result of the rapid melting of ice, increasing US geopolitical importance in the region, as the US can impose jurisdiction over a huge area of the Arctic Ocean and exercise control over the Giuk Passage by developing the existing military infrastructure (Thule air base). It should be mentioned

25 According to Alex Vărzaru, “Canada officially wants the North Pole”, available online at www.ziare.com/international/canada/canada-vrea-oficial-polul-nord-272124, retrieved on 15.05.2019.

26 http://romanian.ruvr.ru/2014.08.09_Canada_intentioneaza_ sa-si_extinda_teritoriul_in_Arctica-61491, retrieved on 16.05.2019.

27 According to Paul Raynolds, “Russia ahead in Arctic’ Gold Rush”, available online at www.news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/6925853.stm, retrieved on 18.05.2019.

28 Greenland has been under Danish rule for over 300 years. It has a population of about 55,000 inhabitants, an extended autonomy status with the right to benefit from its own resources and the Greenlandic language spoken by the Eskimo natives has become the official language. It is not part of the European Community since 1985, which it joined in 1975 as part of Denmark. It holds negotiations for full independence and has a dispute with Canada over the sovereignty over Hans Island. Since 2009 it is an almost independent territory with its own government and policies, except for the foreign and security policy. Greenland is a federal state that is negotiating for full independence.

The chances of finding and

exploiting natural gas or oil in the near

future near the North Pole are reduced or

almost non-existent.

112No.No. 1/2020 1/2020

that until recently, for the US, the Arctic played a minor role in military strategy, the military facilities in the area having the role of anti-ballistic protection of the air territory. This political gesture of the President shows a shift of paradigm in the US military strategy.

Norway and Russia have recently reached an agreement on the properties of the Barents Sea, the stake being the huge energy deposits lying in the Arctic area as unexploited oil reserves around the world are running out29.

Figure 8 : Russian fleet in the ArcticSource http://romanian.ruvr.ru/news/

In the region, there are institutions that define the relations between the employed states: the Arctic Council, the North-European Dimension of the EU, the Nordic Council, the Euro-Arctic Council of the Barents Sea, established in 1993, with the participation of Finland, Sweden, Norway and Russia, and the recently established Arctic Economic Council in 2014, with the participation of all neighbouring states. Starting 2012, the Arctic Council also holds meetings at the level of chiefs of defence member states30.

The problems in the area are economic and political but also concern the national pride. Since 2013, the Russian army has intensified its presence in the Arctic, which is again a place of strategic interest for Moscow, but also for the coastal states and for some major non-coastal powers.

29 Ibid.30 https//:adevărul.ro/internațional/n-lume/batalia-resursele-energetice-oceanul-artic-1-50,

retrieved on 20.05.2019.

Norway and Russia have recently reached an agreement on the properties of the Barents Sea, the stake being the huge energy deposits lying in the Arctic area as unexploited oil reserves around the world are running out.

THE EXPLOITATION OF RESOURCES IS NOT YET SUSTAINABLEBut in the area there are not only contrary interests, there are also

opportunities for cooperation. Thus, Russia has access to Norwegian oilfield technology, with cooperation between Norway Stanoil and Russian companies Gazprom and Rosneft underway. The exploitation of resources has also led to the development of transport infrastructure, in particular naval infrastructure, through the development of port infrastructure in Norway, but also in Russia (Murmansk, Arkhangelsk31).

At the same time, new competitors have emerged in the area for this new and last great energy border of the world. Another “big geopolitical game” is in progress. China, which has a research base in Norway’s Svalbard archipelago since 2004, is building its first nuclear-powered icebreaker.

Figure 9: Energy resources of the ArcticSource: http://www.cass-ro.org/arctica

France, Japan and Korea are cramming together for a bigger role in the area. But these competitors are not received at the negotiating table. Thus, at the meeting of the members of the Arctic Council this year it was appreciated that “more opinions would complicate things”32.

31 http://prosistem.worpress.com/2011/07/11/se-ncinge-lupta-pentru-controlul-Arcticii/, retrieved on 30.05.2019.

32 http://geopolitics.ro/cat-de-rentabila-este-exploatarea-resurselor-energetice-din-zona-arctica-partea-a-doua/, retrieved on 31.05.2019.

Another “big geopolitical game” is in

progress. China, which has a

research base in Norway’s

Svalbard archipelago

since 2004, is building its first

nuclear-powered icebreaker.

114No.No. 1/2020 1/2020

Unlike all other regions in the world rich in energy resources, the Arctic is characterised by a series of challenges that make extraction and transportation difficult, but especially costly.

As an example, oil fields in Saudi Arabia do not experience the long periods of darkness that exist in the Arctic, they are not at thousands of kilometres away from the nearest urban centre, there are no obstacles in terms of weather and expertise. All of these obstacles translate into rising costs.

Onshore drilling is a common problem, but offshore drilling in the Arctic is an issue that requires expertise that not all companies have (for example, Gazprom uses the expertise of the Norwegian company Stahloil), which is expensive and sometimes obtained in exchange for geopolitical concessions (signing by Russia and Norway of the Treaty on maritime delimitation and cooperation in the Barents Sea and in the Arctic Ocean, through which Russia has agreed to the territorial claims of Norway)33.

The increase of oil and natural gas world production was made possible by the increase in the number of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) terminals worldwide and the exploitation of shale gas. These sources are, however, cheaper than the Arctic’s energy resources.

The market is needed to make a profit, but some producers (Russia, USA, Canada) already have excess energy. Most Arctic energy resources are located offshore, need offshore platforms, require underwater pipelines, infrastructure must be built from frost-resistant materials, and construction materials are more expensive. Also, the low temperatures at which they are delivered (can reach -40o C or more) generate a decrease in the efficiency of the work. It is estimated that work efficiency in the Arctic area is reduced by 15% compared to normal conditions.

Lack of visibility is also a major problem, especially for transportation. Ship transport is difficult. The ships travel on known routes, being supported by expensive surveillance systems34. In Arctic areas, ecosystems are more vulnerable, and human activity also creates risk of accidents.

33 http://geopolitics.ro/cat-de-rentabila-este-exploatarea-resurselor-energetice-din-zona-arctica-partea-a-doua/, retrieved on 31.05.2019.

34 Ibid.

The market is needed to make a profit, but some producers (Russia, USA, Canada) already have excess energy. Most Arctic energy resources are located offshore, need offshore platforms, require underwater pipelines, infrastructure must be built from frost-resistant materials, and construction materials are more expensive.

At this point, there is a lack of proper maritime maps throughout the region. To have a clearer picture, only 1/8 of Canada’s Arctic waters are explored to modern standards, and the heavy pace of mapping leads us to conclude that the action will take many years. But as the ice melts, economic interests are likely to give mapping action a faster pace.

In recent years, there is an increasing demand for permission to use the North Passage. In 2018 alone, 500 vessels obtained this permit, and the fact that most of them were Russian leads us to the conclusion that behind these actions are Russia’s geopolitical interests and less economic interests35.

THE ARCTIC IS MILITARISINGThe unique natural resources of the Arctic, in particular

hydrocarbons, and the fear of competition for their control and exploitation, have made the Russian Federation consolidate its military presence in the region36. This situation led to the review of security strategies by the other Arctic coastal states, but also by the non-coastal ones that seek to promote their interests in the region.

Figure 10: Arctic Ocean Navy and Coast Guard Ships

35 http://geopolitics.ro/cat-de-rentabila-este-exploatarea-resurselor-energetice-din-zona-arctica-partea-a-doua/, retrieved on 20.05.2019

36 Russia Opens a New Battle Front, available online at https://striripesurse.ro/

The unique natural

resources of the Arctic,

in particular hydrocarbons,

and the fear of competition for

their control and exploitation,

have made the Russian Federation

consolidate its military presence

in the region. This situation

led to the review of security

strategies by the other Arctic

coastal states, but also by the

non-coastal ones that seek

to promote their interests in the

region.

116No.No. 1/2020 1/2020

Russia’s objectives in the region are military ‒ providing ground, air and naval capabilities, covering the entire area – and economic – the exploitation of hydrocarbons, which will require deposits, new and costly technologies, the reopening of the seas.

In this regard, Russia has embarked on an ambitious program of militarisation of the region. Thus, the Kola Peninsula has a special role, being the main base of the Russian strategic submarines (with nuclear propulsion or with propulsion and nuclear armament). The Kola Peninsula has an ideal position not only for nuclear submarines as a core component of nuclear triad, but also for nuclear bombers and intercontinental rocket launch facilities. In this regard, the Russian Federation has increased the number of nuclear warheads from 1,400 in 2014 to 1,796 in 2017, according to information released by the US State Department37. Particular emphasis was given to the modernisation of the infrastructure and armament of all categories of forces.

Naval forces have a special role to play. In this regard, the Joint Strategic Joint Command was created, which includes the North Fleet and all major newly created or existing units belonging to the land and air forces meant to provide control and security of the region. This structure includes 38 surface vessels and approximately 40 submarines, 8 of them carrying ballistic missiles. There are 4 other submarines of the Boron class currently under construction, with the same role of protecting the sovereign waters and ensuring the protection of the forces under the thick layers of ice to inhibit the operations on the ice surface38.

The permanent naval base in the Arctic shelters a group of ships from the North Fleet, which are in permanent alert since 2014 (“Gheorghi Podonomeset” and “Kondopoga” landing vessels, “Sergei Osipov” supply ship, a nuclear powered icebreaker, other additional ships carrying technology, equipment and personnel of the Arctic Armed Group ‒ special structure that is intended to protect Russia’s interests in the region). Also, Moscow has created two infantry brigades, members of the group, for the Arctic areas39. They are located

37 Alexadru Grumaz, op. cit.38 Ibid.39 http://romanian.ruvr.ru/2014_09_10/Flota-nordica-a-Rusiei-va-avea-propria-baza-in-

Arctica-4036/, retrieved on 19.05.2019.

in the military facilities on Vranghel Island and in the Otto Shmidth Cape, built in the form of a star (which allows free movement inside) and include apartments, canteens, administrative units, gyms, saunas, psychiatric offices40.

Also, the Russian Federation has invested in unmanned research capabilities adapted to Arctic conditions, located in two bases, one of them just 420 nautical miles from Alaska. An indication of the importance of the region is the change of the Russian military strategy in which the particularly important role of the region is explicitly mentioned. The importance of this space also results from the speeches of President Vladimir Putin on different occasions. His statements are followed by concrete actions. There are large and medium range radar systems of Murmansk BN and Nebo class in the area. Russia also reopened some of the former Soviet bases and built new modern bases. It modernised the entire airport and port infrastructure from Tikrit, Yorkuta, Alykel, Rogachyovo and Anadir.

Since 2013, there are growing signs of Russia’s desire to militarise the region. They set up s military base in the Novosibirsk Archipelago, reopened seven aerodromes in the New Siberian Islands, developed its infrastructure for landing fighter and transport aircraft, fuel, nitrogen and oxygen, and pilot training. The MiG-31 BM, Tu-95 and IL-76 M fighter aircraft crews tested the landing on the new aerodromes and performed missions in the area.

They also created an anti-aircraft defence system with only new AA missile systems. It also ordered the renewal of the fleet of nuclear-powered icebreakers, three out of six being already operational.

There are signs that the Russian Federation has also created a hybrid naval component that has ships equipped with electronic equipment and which can serve as a “host ship” for mini-submarines capable of diving at great depths. These capabilities have the role of concealing the action of obtaining the information from the fiber optic cables, existing in particular in the area of the GIUK range, and under certain conditions even of cutting them. All these actions of Russia, declared to be only defensive, are part of the anti-access/area-denial strategy (A2/AD) which aims to reduce NATO’s freedom of navigation in the region41.

40 http://romanian.ruvr.ru/news/2014_09_08/Rusia-a-inceput-sa-costruiasca-baze-militare-in-Arctica-9373/, retrieved on 19.05.2019.

41 Ibid.

Since 2013, there are

growing signs of Russia’s desire

to militarise the region.

All these actions of Russia,

declared to be only defensive, are part of the

anti-access/area-denial

strategy (A2/AD) which aims

to reduce NATO’s freedom of

navigation in the region.

118No.No. 1/2020 1/2020

Competition for resources, territories and dominance of the Arctic trade routes implies a militarisation of the region and the darkest scenario is that of a military conflict.

By its claims, Russia collided with all the states in the area. Being engaged on several open fronts, Russia promotes an open policy, and the military presence in the Arctic area is strengthened from year to year.

States with territory in the Arctic also develop plans to build infrastructure, improve their military capabilities, by introducing intelligence, research and surveillance (ISR) systems, training forces to withstand extreme weather conditions and developing the ability of ships to navigate through the ice42.

Norway and Denmark, states bordering the Arctic Ocean, entered the military competition, creating an Arctic battalion.

42 According to Adrian Marius Dobre, “Geopolitics of the people: the struggle for resources in the Arctic area”, available online at https//:calea_europeana.ro/mapamont-geopolitica-nordului-lupta-for-resurse-din-zona-artica-amd/, retrieved on 15.05.2019.

Figure 11 : Russia Fortifying Bases in Arctic RegionRussian fleet in the Arctic – Source http://romanian.ruvr.ru/news/

In recent years, Canada has intensified its military exercises in the Arctic. Canada also created a team, a force of about 5,000 rangers, ready for action in this region. In this way, it is trying to restore the operational capacity lost as a result of participating in the actions in Afghanistan.

CONCLUSIONSAll Arctic coastal states have taken into account, in the long

term, the economic and geopolitical potential of the area. Until the investments are profitable, these states will claim areas as wide as possible, trying to extend their ownership and exclusive economic or geopolitical rights. As the existing international mechanisms are inefficient, the disputed issues will be resolved bilaterally.

The natural resources estimated to be in the area are scattered over very large areas, which will cause great problems for exploitation and transport. Following the problems that would involve exploiting the resources of the area, we must look at the plans drafted with great scepticism.

For now, there are unimaginable impediments. We can say that “A New Great Geostrategic Game” is in progress in the Arctic Ocean, whose stakes are known, but not the final result.

Figure 12: Arctic territorial claims

120No.No. 1/2020 1/2020

BIBLIOGRAPHY:1. ***, “Guardian in the path of the storm” magazine collection, years

2010-2015.2. ***, Final Report at Naval Operations in an Ice-free Arctic Symposium,

17-18 April 2001, available at http://www.star.nesdis.roaa.gov/star/documents /2007/IceSymp/FinalArcticReport.2001.pdf

3. Adrian Corobană, “The Triangle of Geopolitical Forces – US-China-Russia”, Editura ARS DOCENDI, București, 2012.

4. Paul Dobrescu, “Geopolitics”, Editura Comunicare.ro, București, 2003.5. Nicolae Dolghin, “Geopolitics. Dependencies on Energy Resources”,

Editura Universității Naționale de Apărare “Carol I”, București, 2004.6. Aleksandr Dughin, “The Foundations of Geopolitics and the

Geopolitical Future of Russia”, Editura Euroasiatica, București, 2010.7. Ion Porojan, “Aspects of Geopolitics of Energy Resources”, in

“Asymmetry of Energy Resources”, Geopolitics, Journal of Political Geography, Geopolitics and Geostrategy, year V, No. 23, Editura Top Form, București, 2007.

8. Alvin Toffler, “The Third Wave”, Editura Politică, București, 1983.

WEBOGRAPHY:1. http://www.hotnews.ro/stiri-revista_presei_international-9396922-

time-Putin_ incinge-cursa-pentru-controlul-arcticului-10000-soldati-rusi-indreapta-spre-nord.html

2. www.referat.ro/referate_despre_oceanul_arctic_referat-html3. http://blog.adrianmariusdobre.eu/4. www.ro.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oceanul_Arctic5. politica.org.ro/geopoliticaa-/geopolitica_conflictul_arctic_un_

razboi_rece_intr-o_zona_inghetata/22362/6. http://romanian.ruvr.ru/2014_10_30/Oamenii_de_stiinta_au_

demonstrat_ca_Rusia_are_dreptul_sa_revendice_teritorii_arctice/0883/

7. http://romanian.ruvr.ru/2014_08_09_Canada_intentioneaza_sa-si_extinda_ teritoriul_in_ Arctica-61491/

8. http://romanian.ruvr.ru/2014_09_10/Flota-nordica-a-Rusiei-va-avea-propria-baza-in-Arctica-4036/

9. http://romanian.ruvr.ru/news/2014_09_08/Rusia-a-inceput-sa-costruiasca-baze-militare-in-Arctica-9373/

10. www.zf.ro/business_international/zona_arctica_urmatoarea_frontiera_in_lupta_ pentru_resursele_energetice_12535003/

11. http://geopolitics.ro/cat-de-rentabila-este-exploatarea-resurselor-energetice-din-zona-arctica-partea-a-doua/

12. http://ziarullumina.ro/pagina-de-istorie/realitati-si-influente-economice-politica -externa-rusiei

13. http://www.zf.ro/politica/politica-externa/rusia-vorbeste-de-razboi-in-lupta-pentru-resurseleenergetice-4360567/

14. http://geopolitics.ro/noul-proiect-geopolitic-al-rusiei/15. http://romanian.ruvr.ru/2014_09_10/Flota-Nordica-a-Rusiei-va-

avea-propria-baza-in-Arctica-4036/16. https//www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova_scotia/otawa_sign_288m_

contact_fr_desing_of_artic_ships_1131219417. https//www.ctnews.ca/Canadian_forces_carry_out_artic_training_

exercises_131902618. https://wsl.jw.org/ro.walorg/d/r34/lpm/10200384819. www.referat.ro/referate_despre_oceanul_arctic_referat-html

http://www.cass_ro.org/arctica/Alexandru_Grumaz20. https://www.digi24.ro/externe/Rusia_ameninta_ca_va_scufunda_

navele_straine_care_tranverseaza_oceanul_artic_109352221. https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/201903/izvestia_

what_awaits_foreign_military_versus_northern_sea_route/22. http://prosistem.worpress.com/2011/07/11/se-ncinge-lupta-

pentru-controlul-Arcticii/23. http://geopolitics.ro/cat-de-rentabila-este-exploatarea-resurselor-

energetice-din-zona-arctica-partea-a-doua/24. https//:adevărul.ro/internațional/n-lume/batalia-resursele-

energetice-oceanul-artic-1-50.25. Scott Borgerson, Caytlyn Antrim, ,,An Arctic Circle of Friends”,

available online at https//www.nytimes.com/2009/03/28/opinion/28borgerson

26. Alexandru Grumaz, A New Battle Front for Russia, available online at https://adevarul.ro/international/artica_un_nou_front_de_lupta_pentru_rusia/.. ./index.html

27. P. Singh, “Whose Arctic is it anyway?”, available online at https//idso.in/publications

28. Alex Vărzaru, “Canada vrea oficial Polul Nord”, available online at www.ziare.com/internațional/canada/canada-vrea-oficial-polul-nord-272124.

Colonel Vasile CERBU, PhD

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