Cognitive Illiberalism .

Cognitive Illiberalism

Dan M. Kahan Yale Law School

& many many others!

www.culturalcognition.net

Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES--0922714 Oscar M. Ruebhausen Fund at Yale Law School

What am I talking about?

Cultural cognition cognitive illiberalism

1. “Motivated numeracy”

2. “Noncommunicative harm principle”

3. Cognitive illiberalism: how big is the problem?

Motivated Numeracy

“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?”

Low High

low high

Science literacy/numeracy

Greater

Lesser

low high

Greater

Lesser

Low High

Egalitarian Communitarian

Hierarchical Individualist

Actual ResponseGreater

Lesser

Low High

Actual Response

low high

Greater

Lesser

Low High

re) Egalitarian Communitarian

Actual Response

low high

Greater

Lesser

Low High

Lesser

Low High

Actual Response

source: Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, 2, 732-35 (2012).

“Skin cream experiment”

Rash Decreases

Rash Increases

Experimental condition

Numeracy

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 90 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

Numeracy scoreEntire Sample

Numeracy scorePolitical outlook subsamples

Conserv_Repub > 0Conserv_Repub < 0

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

scatterplot: skin treatment

Correct interpretation of data

rash decreases

rash increases

Numeracy score

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

Lowess smoother superimposed on raw data.

numeracy score at & above which subjects can be expected to correctly interpret data.

Numeracy

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 90 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

Numeracy scoreEntire Sample

Numeracy scorePolitical outlook subsamples

Conserv_Repub > 0Conserv_Repub < 0

“Gun ban experiment”

Four conditions

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

rash decreasesrash increases

Numeracy score

correct interpretation of data (

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

scatterplot: gun ban

Numeracy score

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

crime decreasescrime increases

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

liberal Democrat

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

conservative Republican

Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican

Zconservrepub0

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

Sample overall

0“Conserv_Repub”

Conserv_Repub is standardized sum of standardized responses to 5-point liberal-conservative ideology and 7-point party-self-identification measures.

Liberal Democrats (< 0 on Conservrepub)Conserv Republicans (> 0 on Conservrepub)

rrect in

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9n_numeracy

skin cream

correct interpretation of da

ta (=1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

rash decreases

rash increasesrash decreases

rash increases

Numeracy score01

rrect interp

retatio

n of d

ata (=

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9n_numeracy

gun ban

Numeracy score

ct int

etatio

n of d

ata (=

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

crime decreases

crime increases

crime decreases

crime increases

n_correct interpretation of data (=1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9n_numeracy

gun ban

Numeracy score

rrect in

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

crime decreases

crime increases

crime decreases

crime increases

rrect in

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9n_numeracy

skin cream

correct interpretation of da

ta (=1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

rash decreases

rash increases

Numeracy score01

rrect interp

retatio

n of d

ata (=

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9n_numeracy

gun ban

Numeracy score

ct int

etatio

n of d

ata (=

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

crime decreases

crime increases

crime decreases

crime increases

n_correct interpretation of data (=1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9n_numeracy

gun ban

Numeracy score

rrect in

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

crime decreases

crime increases

crime decreases

crime increases

rrect in

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9n_numeracy

gun ban

Numeracy score

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

crime decreases

crime increases

crime decreases

crime increases

Liberal Democrats (< 0 on Conservrepub)Conserv Republicans (> 0 on Conservrepub)

N = 1111. Outcome variable is “Correct” (0 = incorrect interpretation of data, 1 = correct interpretation). Predictor estimates are logit coefficients with z-test statistic indicated parenthetically. Experimental assignment predictors—rash_decrease, rash_increase, and crime_increase—are dummy variables (0 = unassigned, 1 = assigned—with assignment to “crime decreases” as the comparison condition. Z_numeracy and Conserv_Repub are centered at 0 for ease of interpretation. Bolded typeface indicates predictor coefficient is significant at p < 0.05.

Best fitting regression model for experiment results

rash_decrease 0.40 (1.57)rash increase 0.06 (0.22)crime increase 1.07 (4.02)z_numeracy -0.01 (-0.05)z_numeracy_x_rash_decrease 0.55 (2.29)z_numeracy_x_rash_increase 0.23 (1.05)z_numeracy_x_crime_increase 0.46 (2.01)z_numeracy2 0.31 (2.46)z_numeracy2_x_rash_decrease 0.02 (0.14)z_numeracy2_x_rash_increase -0.07 (-0.39)z_numeracy2_x_crime_increase -0.31 (-1.75)Conserv_Repub -0.64 (-3.95)Conserv_Repub_x_rash_decrease 0.56 (2.64)Conserv_Repub_x_rash_increase 1.28 (6.02)Conserv_Repub_x_crime_increase 0.63 (2.82)z_numeracy_x_Conserv_repub -0.33 (-1.89)z_nuneracy_x_Conserv_Repub_x_rash_decrease 0.33 (1.40)z_nuneracy_x__x_rash_increase 0.54 (2.17)z_nuneracy_x__x_crime_increase 0.26 (1.08)_constant -0.96 (-4.70)

0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0142

High numeracyLow numeracy

high numeracy = 8 correctlow numeracy = 3 correct

Regression model predicted probabilities

skin treatment

Gun ban

probabilility of correct interpretation of data probabilility of correct interpretation of data

rash decreases

rash increases

rash decreases

rash increases

rash decreases

rash increases

crime increases

crime decreases

crime increases

crime decreases

crime increases

crime decreases

crime increases

Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub)Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

crime decreases

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Rash decrease

Rash increase

Crime decrease

Crime increase

Low numeracy

High numeracy

Low numeracy

High numeracy

Low numeracy

High numeracy

Low numeracy

High numeracy

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

Liberal Democratmore likely

Conservative Republicanmore likely

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

Partisan Differences in Probability of Correct Interpretation Of Data

Pct. difference in probability of correct interpretation of data

Predicted difference in probability of correct interpretation, based on regression model. Predictors for partisanship set at + 1 & - 1 SD on Conserv_Republican scale. Predictors for “low” and “high” numeracy set at 2 and 8 correct, respectively. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Rash decrease

Rash increase

Crime decrease

Crime increase

Low numeracy

High numeracy

Low numeracy

High numeracy

Low numeracy

High numeracy

Low numeracy

High numeracy

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Rash decrease

Rash increase

Crime decrease

Crime increase

Low numeracy

High numeracy

Low numeracy

High numeracy

Low numeracy

High numeracy

Low numeracy

High numeracy

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Rash decrease

Rash increase

Crime decrease

Crime increase

Low numeracy

High numeracy

Low numeracy

High numeracy

Low numeracy

High numeracy

Low numeracy

High numeracy

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

Avg. “polarization”on crime data

for low numeracypartisans

25% (± 9%)

for high numeracypartisans

46% (± 17%)

Perceived climate change risk

Low High

low high

Greater

Lesser

low high

Greater

Lesser

Low High

Lesser

Low High

Actual Response

low high

Greater

Lesser

Low High

re) Egalitarian Communitarian

Actual Response

low high

Greater

Lesser

Low High

Lesser

Low High

Actual Response

source: Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, 2, 732-35 (2012).

Did protestors cross the line between “speech” and “intimidation”?

Experimental Conditions

Recruitment Center ConditionAbortion Clinic Condition

Freedom to Exercise Reproductive Rights Law Section 1. Prohibited Conduct. It is against the law for any person to intentionally (1) interfere with, (2) obstruct, (3) intimidate, or (4) threaten any person who is seeking to enter, exit, or remain lawfully on premises of any hospital or medical clinic that is licensed to perform abortions. Section 2. Order to Desist. If a law enforcement officer observes or is furnished with reliable evidence that any person is engaged in behavior in violation of section 1, the officer may order such person to desist and to leave the immediate vicinity.

Freedom to Serve with Honor Law Section 1. Prohibited Conduct. It is against the law for any person to intentionally (1) interfere with, (2) obstruct, (3) intimidate, or (4) threaten any person who is seeking to enter, exit, or remain lawfully on premises of any facility in which the U.S. military is engaged in recruitment activity. Section 2. Order to Desist. If a law enforcement officer observes or is furnished with reliable evidence that any person is engaged in behavior in violation of section 1, the officer may order such person to desist and to leave the immediate vicinity.

1. DTHREAT. The protestors threatened individuals seeking to enter, exit, or remain lawfully on the premises of the abortion clinic campus recruitment center.

2. DINTIMIDATE. The protestors intimidated individuals seeking to enter, exit, or remain lawfully on the premises of the abortion clinic campus recruitment center.

3. DOBSTRUCT. The protestors obstructed individuals seeking to enter, exit, or remain lawfully on the premises of the abortion clinic campus recruitment center.

4. PLISTEN. The people who decided not to enter the abortion clinic campus recruitment center did not feel threatened or intimidated; they just didn’t want to have to listen to what the protestors were saying.

5. PANNOY. It is more likely the police broke up the protest because they found dealing with the entire situation annoying or inconvenient than because they believed the protestors were violating the law.

6. DVIOLENCE. There was a risk that the protestors might resort to violence if anyone tried to enter.

7. DSCREAM. One or more the protestor screamed in face of people who wanted to enter the abortion clinic campus recruitment center.

1. LIABILITY. I would vote to find the police did not have the evidence necessary to stop the protest under the Freedom to Serve with Honor Law/The Freedom to Exercise Reproductive Rights Law.

2. DAMAGES. I would vote to order the police to pay damages to the protestors.

ORDER. I would vote to order the police not to interfere with protests under conditions like the ones shown in the video.

Select fact perception items

Case-outcome items

“The record confirms that any distress occasioned by Westboro’s picketing turned on the content and viewpoint of the message conveyed, rather than any interference with the funeral itself.” Snyder v. Phelps, 131 S. Ct. 1207 (2011)