Post on 02-Feb-2016
description
CLIMATE2030: A Japanese Project for Decadal Climate Prediction
Masahide KimotoCenter for Climate System Research
University of Tokyoand
Team SPAMSPAM SPAMSPAMSPAMSPAMSPAMSPAM
IPCC AR4 SPM
Climate Projection by Computer Models
The 2nd phase of Japanese global warming projecton the Earth Simulator (Kakushin Program; 2007-2012)
• Team 1: Long-term (FRCGC/NIES/CCSR) Tokioka– MIROC-ESM (T42L80+1.0x1.4L44+carbon cycle+aerosols+chemistry)– NICAM global CSRM, EMIC for uncertainty– physics ensemble– detailed dyn veg– crop yields, high tides
• Team 2: Near-term (CCSR/NIES/FRCGC) Kimoto– MIROC AOGCM (T213AGCM+1/4x1/6OGCM+aerosols; medres(T85) as
well)– Initialization w/ obs. + 10-member ensemble– Flood/drought risk assessment– Regionally hi-res OGCM
• Team 3: Hi-res time-slice (MRI/JMA) Kitoh– 20km AGCM + 1km nested regional model near Japan– Impact on hydrology, flood risk assessment, Typhoons
# Teams 1-3 all consist of Modelling/Uncertainty/Impact study components# ES will be upgraded in March 2009 (2.x times faster)
Ensemble hindcast/forecast
Assimilation/Initialization
• A near-term prediction up to 2030 with a high-resolution coupled AOGCM
– 60km Atmos + 20x30km Ocean– w/ updated cloud PDF scheme, PBL, etc– advanced aerosol/chemistry
• Estimate of uncertainty due to initial conditions– 10(?)-member ensemble– For impact applications
• water risk assessment system• impacts on marine ecosystems• etc.
• Test run w/ 20km AOGCM (in 2011)
110km mesh model
60km mesh model
5-min topography
Japanese CLIMATE 2030 Project
Near-Term Projection: Issues
Hawkins and Sutton (2008)• Models good enough?• Resolution? Ensembles?• Initialization? How?• Drift?• Decadal predictability?• Chemistry? Aerosols?• Volcanoes?
Decadal Predictability for Natural Modes?
Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)
SPAMSPAMSPAMSPAMSPAMSPAM
SPAMSystem for Prediction and Assimilation by MIROC
Coupled climate model MIROC
Data Assimilation
Prediction Products
Assimilation/Initialization
Data
Impact assessment
Hirabayashi et al. (2006)
Externally forced climate change(20th Century Reproduction Experiment w/o Data Assimilation)
Glo
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Full forcing(Natual + Anthropogenic)
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Anthropogenic forcingOnly
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Natural forcing Only(Solar + Volcano)
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No forcing
Nozawa et al. (2005)
Predictability of PDO: Impact of initializationTime series projected on to
simulated PDO
1970 1975 1980
SST EOF1
20C3M
OBS
ObservationHindcast & spread
1970 1975 1980
Uninitialized 20C experiment
Initialized hindcast (Initial: 1970)
4
2
0
-2
-44
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-4
Mochizuki et al. (2009, submitted)
Mochizuki et al. (2009)
Decadal Predictability?Assimilation vs. Hindcasts w/ & w/o initialization
SPAMSPAMSPAMSPAMSPAMSPAM
SPAM: System for
Prediction and
Assimilation by
MIROC
Global SAT PDO
Difference between Assimilated and Not
Assimilated FCST 2006-2010
Reevaluation of historical upper-ocean heat content
Depth correction for historical XBT & MBT (Ishii and Kimoto, 2009)
V6.2: Old analysisV6.7: New AnalysisMIROC: medres 20C3M & spread
Global heat content(0-700m)
Impacts of XBTー DBC: PDO
without XBT-DBC
with XBT-DBC
ObservationPredic. (1)
Projection onto 20C3M EOF1
EOF1
XBT depth correction improved climatology & initial condition