Climate Variability and Weather Disasters

—Awareness of the Changing Climate

Ms. JIAO Meiyan

Department of Forecasting Services and Disaster Mitigation China Meteorological Administration

December, 7 2007. Geneva

Outline:

I. Weather Disasters in China

II. Climate Variability (in terms of temperature, precipitation) and the Impact

III.Cases of Extreme Events

Typhoon Rananim in 2004 lasting 108 hours

The Distribution of Meteorological Disasters in China

Weather Disasters in China, in terms of Frequency, Variety and Severity.

Major Weather Disasters in China

( in Percentage)

DroughtFlooding

TCs and Hail Others

The Losses by Meteorological Disasters

Losses per year: 178 billion RMB

Death per year: 4427 death

Economic Losses in Portion of GDP: 1%-3%

The Warmest Climate

Normal temp. 10.8℃12.1℃

Monthly Mean Temperature

Variations in China

1951-2006 annual mean temperature anomaly

and that of the wintertime, both relative

to the mean of 1961-1990.

The whole year

Wintertime (DJF)

Trend of the cold surge occurrences during 1961-2005

Decrease

Increase

Annual hot days (Tmax>35oC) in China during 1961-2006

Days

Drought Frequency (1961-2006) in China

More than 70%

Ac

rea

ge

(!0

4 H

ect

are

)

Annual acreage of the crop suffered from the drought in China during 1951-2006

Suffered from the drought and with the reduction of

the crop production

Influenced by the drought

Impact on the Agriculture

Red

uct

ion

(10

4 t

on

) Reduction in grain production in China

due to the droughts

Annual mean Precip. (mm)

(1971-2000)

Change (percentage) in annual mean Precip. During 195

7-2006

7 5 8 0 8 5 9 0 9 5 1 0 0 1 0 5 1 1 0 1 1 5 1 2 0 1 2 5 1 3 0 1 3 5

2 0

2 5

3 0

3 5

4 0

4 5

5 0

5 5

- 6 0

- 4 5

- 3 0

- 1 5

0

1 5

3 0

4 5

Trend of Precipitation

Reduced by 60%

Trends in the heavy rainfall days in the mainland of China in recent 50 Yrs

Increase significantlydecrease significantlyIncreasedecrease

Trend of the heavy rainfall in China

Rainy days with R>50mm

R>50mm over yangtze r i ver ( 27- 31. 75N, 107. 25- 122. 5E)

0

2

4

6

1951 1961 1971 1981 1991

9st52st

(52st)线性5469 98,99

8096

61-70ys: 2.2d71-80ys: 2.1d81-90ys: 2.4d91-00ys: 3.1d

Annual Flooding Frequency (1961-2006)

More than 70%

Suffered from flooding with the reduction of crop

Suffered from flooding

Ac

rea

ge

(!0

4 H

ect

are

)

Annual acreage of the crop suffered from the flooding

1951-2006年中国年农作物雨涝受灾及成灾面积历年变化

Major typhoon tracks for China

Number of TC landing in China during 1961-2006

Number of strong TC (wind speed >32.7m/s)

landing in China during 1961-2006

Economic loss caused by TCs in China during 1982-2006

An Extreme Rain Storm in Jinan, Capital of Shandong Provence

Hourly Maximum Rainfall 151 mm

Caused 37 Deaths

Sudden Severe Weather Occurs Frequently

Cases of Extreme Events

A heavy lightening event hit a school in the rural area and caused 7 children death and 43 people injured.

Lightening Event

Lightening Event Monitoring

Children injured and Death by lightening every year

Drought Related Disasters

Rain-making Actions

The number of days with heat waves The max temperature

(heat waves) hits the historical records in many cities

Heat Wave Events