Eli AsarianRiverbend Sciences

Climate-driven Increases in Salmon River Water Temperatures: Implications for Spring-run Chinook

Virtual Spring-run Chinook Symposium7/24/2020

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https://srrc.org/publications/https://klamathwaterquality.com/documents.html

http://www.riverbendsci.com/reports-and-publications-1

Toz Soto, Grant Johnson, Susan Fricke, Sophie Price, and Emilio Tripp Karuk Department of Natural Resources

Lyra Cressey, Bonnie Bennett, Karuna Greenberg, Scott Harding, and Melissa Van ScoyocSalmon River Restoration Council

Jon Grunbaum, Maija Meneks Klamath National ForestLeroy Cyr Six Rivers National ForestCallie McConnell NRM CSO

Acknowledgments (data and more)

Nick Som, Dan Gale, Aaron David,Taylor Daley and Christian RombergerUS Fish and Wildlife Service

Tim Montfort, Chelsea AquinoUS Bureau of Land Management

GIS: Nick CusickCrystal Robinson, Sarah Schaefer Quartz Valley Indian Reservation

Sarah Beesley, Jamie Holt, Matt Hanington, Suzanne Fluharty, and Micah Gibson Yurok Tribe Fisheries Program and Yurok Tribe Environmental Program

Jay Stallman and Rafael Real de AsuaStillwater Sciences

Photo: Michael Hentz

Dams

Klamath Study Area

Photo: Michael Hentz

Dams

Klamath Study Area

www.westcoast.fisheries.noaa.gov

Spring-run Chinook SalmonOncorhynchus tshawytschaSalmon

River

Questions• Have stream temperatures

changed over the study period?– If yes, why?

• What climate variables explain interannual variability in stream temperatures ?

• How will climate change affect future temperatures?

Photo: Eli Asarian

Value oflong-term monitoring

Photo: Eli Asarian

MDMT = 25.9MWMT = 25.2

MWAT = 23.4 I I

I I

Aug_meanMx = 23.7

Aug_mean = 22.1

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20

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Jul 01 Aug 01 Sep 01 Oct 01Date

Tem

pera

ture

(C)

Stream Temperature DataTotal:556 sites4369 site-years

Analysis:85 sites >=14 data1995–2017 Logos for illustration only,

does not imply endorsement

Salmon R.

Scott R. Shasta R.

Middle Klamath R.

Lower Klamath R.

Water temperature

Instream probes from many

entities

Linear mixed-effects models

for trends

WaterTemp.

Year

Summarize to seasonal/monthly

metrics

Twater = Z*Year

linear slope of temp. trend

Water temperature

Instream probes from many

entities

Flow USGSgages

Airtemp. PRISMmodel

April 1 Snowpack

Univ. AZ model

Remote-sensed wildfire smoke

Linear mixed-effects models

for trends

WaterTemp.

Year

Summarize to seasonal/monthly

metrics

Twater = Z*Year

linear slope of temp. trend

Climate data

Water temperature

Instream probes from many

entities

Flow USGSgages

Airtemp. PRISMmodel

April 1 Snowpack

Univ. AZ model

Remote-sensed wildfire smoke

Linear mixed-effects models

for trends

WaterTemp.

Year

Summarize to seasonal/monthly

metrics

Drainage area fromNHDPlus

Long-term mean annual precipitationPRISM model

Twater = Z*Year

linear slope of temp. trend

GIS spatial dataClimate data

Water temperature

Instream probes from many

entities

Flow USGSgages

Airtemp. PRISMmodel

April 1 Snowpack

Univ. AZ model

Remote-sensed wildfire smoke

Linear mixed-effects models

for trends

WaterTemp.

Year

Linear mixed-effects models account for effects of interannual climate variability on water temperature

Summarize to seasonal/monthly

metrics

Drainage area fromNHDPlus

Long-term mean annual precipitationPRISM model

Twater =A* +B* + C* +D* +E* + F*

Twater = Z*Year

linear slope of temp. trend

GIS spatial dataClimate data

Water temperature

Instream probes from many

entities

Flow USGSgages

Airtemp. PRISMmodel

April 1 Snowpack

Univ. AZ model

Remote-sensed wildfire smoke

Linear mixed-effects models

for trends

WaterTemp.

Year

Linear mixed-effects models account for effects of interannual climate variability on water temperature

random slopesvary by site

Summarize to seasonal/monthly

metrics

Drainage area fromNHDPlus

Long-term mean annual precipitationPRISM model

Twater =A* +B* + C* +D* +E* + F*

Interaction(smoke varies with )Twater = Z*Year

linear slope of temp. trend

GIS spatial dataClimate data

Water temperature

Instream probes from many

entities

Flow USGSgages

Airtemp. PRISMmodel

April 1 Snowpack

Univ. AZ model

Remote-sensed wildfire smoke

Linear mixed-effects models

for trends

WaterTemp.

Year

Linear mixed-effects models account for effects of interannual climate variability on water temperature

random slopesvary by site

Summarize to seasonal/monthly

metrics

Drainage area fromNHDPlus

Long-term mean annual precipitationPRISM model

Twater =A* +B* + C* +D* +E* + F*

Interaction(smoke varies with )Twater = Z*Year

linear slope of temp. trend

Insights into how therelative importance of climate variables vary across sites and

months

GIS spatial dataClimate data

Averageprecipitation

Legend:

Warming CoolingEffect of GIS/Climate Predictors on Stream Temperature

Coefficient estimate and 95% confidence interval (standardized units)

Increasing

Decreasing

Stream Temp. Long-Term Trends 1995-2017 (All Sites Combined)

Increasing

Decreasing

Stream Temp. Long-Term Trends 1995-2017 (All Sites Combined)July is increasing fastest

Increasing

Decreasing

Stream Temp. Long-Term Trends 1995-2017 (All Sites Combined)July is increasing fastest

Increasing

Decreasing

Stream Temp. Long-Term Trends 1995-2017 (All Sites Combined)

Some sites are increasing

Some sites are decreasing

July is increasing fastest

Increasing

Decreasing

Cooling effect of flow (Flow random slope)

Strong effect weak effect

Increasing

Decreasing

Cooling effect of flow (Flow random slope)

Strong effect weak effect

Salmon R. Spring-run Chinook habitat

South Fork Salmon R. upstreamof Black Bear Creek:Temps highly sensitive to flowTrends is steep increase

Little North Fork Salmon R:Less sensitive to flowTrend is increasing slower

SmokeMayJunJulAugSep

South Fork Salmon R. upstreamof Black Bear Creek:Temps highly sensitive to flowTrends is steep increase

Little North Fork Salmon R:Less sensitive to flowTrend is increasing slower

Conclusions Part 1 (Trends)• all useful predictors of inter-annual stream

temp variation– effect greatest rivers and large streams.

• Trends:– Greatest increases in July– limiting rises in August stream temps (and flow matters less)– Site-specific responses vary

• Rising air temperature• Flow-sensitive tribs warming faster (bad news for spring Chinook)

Climate:• Precipitation

- More rain- Less snow- More variability

• Air Temperature

Greenhouse GasEmissions Atmosphere

General Circulation Models (GCMs)

Tools and Conceptual Model for Climate Change Assessment

Climate:• Precipitation

- More rain- Less snow- More variability

• Air Temperature

Greenhouse GasEmissions Atmosphere

General Circulation Models (GCMs)

Streamflow:• Higher winter flow• Lower summer flow

Tools and Conceptual Model for Climate Change Assessment

Land/HydrologySimulation Models

Climate:• Precipitation

- More rain- Less snow- More variability

• Air Temperature

Greenhouse GasEmissions Atmosphere

General Circulation Models (GCMs)

Streamflow:• Higher winter flow• Lower summer flow

Tools and Conceptual Model for Climate Change Assessment

Spatial Stream Network (SSN) ModelsAugust stream temperature

Land/HydrologySimulation Models

Climate:• Precipitation

- More rain- Less snow- More variability

• Air Temperature

Greenhouse GasEmissions Atmosphere

General Circulation Models (GCMs)

Streamflow:• Higher winter flow• Lower summer flow

Land/HydrologySimulation Models

August stream temperatureSpatial Stream Network (SSN) Models

Tools and Conceptual Model for Climate Change Assessment

Not included in analysis:- Floods: channel & riparian veg- Increasing groundwater temperatures- Months except August

SPATIAL STREAM NETWORK (SSN) MODEL

Adapted from NorWeST (Isaak et al. 2017)Statistical (empirical)SSN: Ver Hoef & Peterson

• Spatial correlations• Network/tributary structure

• Linear mixed effects (regression)• GIS-based reach attributes as predictors

Photo: Eli Asarian

3131

Variable Type Warming or Cooling? Interaction Source

Drainage area

Spatial

+ Flow GIS calc

Remote-sensed topo/veg shade - 30m satellite USFS GNN veg &

Shade-o-latorElevation - USGS

Water Yield (August) -

Linear mixed effects model:USGS gage & SRRC/Karuk/USFS

measurements

SF Salmon (Y/N) Spatial/ categorical Flow GIS

Air Temperature (August) Temporal

+ PRISM gridded climate data

Gage Flow (August) - Drainage area USGS

Smoke - Drainage area MERRA-2 re-analysis

Snowpack(April 1)

Spatio-temporal - Flow Gridded model (Mote et al. 2014)

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Variable Type Warming or Cooling? Interaction Source

Drainage area

Spatial

+ Flow GIS calc

Remote-sensed topo/veg shade - 30m satellite USFS GNN veg &

Shade-o-latorElevation - USGS

Water Yield (August) -

Linear mixed effects model:USGS gage & SRRC/Karuk/USFS

measurements

SF Salmon (Y/N) Spatial/ categorical Flow GIS

Air Temperature (August) Temporal

+ PRISM gridded climate data

Gage Flow (August) - Drainage area USGS

Smoke - Drainage area MERRA-2 re-analysis

Snowpack(April 1)

Spatio-temporal - Flow Gridded model (Mote et al. 2014)

SPATIAL STREAM NETWORK TEMPERATURE MODEL

Data:102 sitesn = 796 site years

LOOCV Performance:RMSPE = 0.62 °CR2 = 0.95

1990–2017 Baseline

Mean Daily Max. August Temp. (°C)

N.F Salmon R.

Wooley Cr.

S.F.Salmon R.

MainstemSalmon R.

Little N.F.Salmon R.

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CLIMATE SCENARIOS

Periods • Baseline: 1990–2017 average• Future: 2070–2099 average

August Air temperature• Downscaled climate models

August Streamflow• Hydrologic simulations: Trinity,

Feather, Yuba, American Rivers

April 1 Snowpack• Xiao et al. 2013 gridded model

ScenarioName

Relative to1990-2017 Baseline

August Air

Temperature

AugustStreamflow

April 1 Snowpack

Moderate Emissions(RCP 4.5)

+2.4 °C -31% -63%

HighEmissions(RCP 8.5)

+4.4 °C -46% -83%

Future 2070–2099 High Emissions

(RCP8.5)

Mean Daily Max. August Temp. (°C)

Baseline 1990–2017

N.F Salmon R.

Wooley Cr.

S.F.Salmon R.

MainstemSalmon R.

Little N.F.Salmon R.

N.F Salmon R.

Wooley Cr.

S.F.Salmon R.

MainstemSalmon R.

Little N.F.Salmon R.

Baseline vs 2070-2099 High Emissions (RCP8.5)

SF Salmon:Most sensitive

N.F Salmon R.

Wooley Cr.

S.F.Salmon R.

MainstemSalmon R.

Little N.F.Salmon R.

Mean Daily Max. August Temp. Increase (°C)

Conclusions Part 2 (Climate Change)• Water temps warm 1.7–3.3 °C (3.1–5.9 °F)

by 2070-2099) if emissions not reduced… 0.9–2.0 °C with reduced emissions

• Cold water contracts upstream

• Large rivers warm more than small streams– Trib mouth refugia become increasingly

important– Need to protect/increase cold water

• Floodplains restoration for thermal diversity

Photo: Eli Asarian

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Stay cool!

Photo: Eli Asarian

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https://srrc.org/publications/https://klamathwaterquality.com/documents.html

http://www.riverbendsci.com/reports-and-publications-1

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Photo by Thomas B. Dunklin

Smoke effect greatest inrivers and large streams

Mainstem Klamath and Trinity rivers

All other tributaries

10 km2 (Aikens Cr nr mouth)