Post on 31-Dec-2015
description
Climate change – reducing the risks to health
Andy Haines
Carbon dioxide measurements since 1957Mauna Loa, Hawaii
• The rise in carbon dioxide is due to our emissions• For every 100t of CO2 emitted now, 15-40t will remain in the atmosphere in1000y• Other long-lived GHGs (methane, nitrous oxide, FCs..) give the equivalent of 20% more CO2
West Antarctic ice sheet
Arctic ice sheets
East Antarctic ice sheet
60myr 50myr 40myr 30myr 20myr 10myr Now
Millions of Years Before Present
12
8
4
0Temp oC (vs 1961-90 av temp)
+3oC+5oC
Earth’s Temperature Chart, since Dinosaur Extinction 65m yrs ago
?
Sea level 25-40 metres higher
than todayTripati et al Science 2009
Paleocene
+1.5oC
last 2m yr = ice-
age
A warming climateIPCC 2013
Surface temperaturechange 1901-2012
Global average sea level change September Arctic sea ice area
Projections of globally averaged surface temperature change from 1986-2005 IPCC 2013
+0.6C for change from pre-industrial
Projections of regional surface temperature change1986-2005 to 2081-2100 for high emission scenario (RCP8.5)
IPCC 2013
Temperature
Precipitation
Projections for other quantities
Global Ocean surface pH
IPCC 2013
+0.2m for change from 1900
An adaptability limit to climate change due to heat stress Steven C. Sherwood and Matthew Huber PNAS 2010
Exceeding peak heat stress for extended periods should induce hyperthermia in humans
‘....It would begin to occur with global-mean warming of about on 7 °C, calling the habitability of some regions into question’
D.S.Battisti and R.L. Naylor . Science 2009
France, August 2003~15000 deaths (~70,000 in Europe) Robine et al 2007
Temperature distribution across Europe on 10 August 2003 at 1500hrs
500 Watts(very heavy work)
400 Watts(heavy work)
300 Watts(medium work)
200 Watts(light work)
28 °C
32 °C
34 °C
0.2
5.5
.75
1
24 28 32 36 40
Prop
ortio
n of
tim
e ne
eded
for r
est
Source: Kjellstrom T et al, Global Health Action 2009. DOI: 10.3402/gha.v2i0.2047
Possible work intensity as a function of temperature
Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (°C)
Baseline 2000
Climate Change and Malaria Potential transmission in Zimbabwe
Climate suitability: red = high; blue/green = low
Highlands
Source: Ebi et al., 2005
Source: Ebi et al., 2005
2025
Climate Change and Malaria - Potential transmission in Zimbabwe
Climate suitability: red = high; blue/green = low
Diarrheal disease and rainfall
Global overview of 36 published reports from LMICs from 1954-2000 (Lloyd, Kovats, Armstrong. Climate Res 2007)
4% (1-7%) increase in diarrhoea incidence in children aged <5 per 10 mm /month decrease in rainfall
Reduced effect of hand washing where rainfall is low?
64
36
20
80
Percentage change in yields to 2050
-50 -20 0 +20 +50 +100
UN Devt Prog, 2009
Plus climate-related:• Flood/storm/fire damage• Droughts – range, severity• Pests (climate-sensitive)• Infectious diseases (ditto)
CLIMATE CHANGE: Poor Countries Projected to Fare Worst MODELLED CHANGES IN CEREAL GRAIN YIELDS, TO 2050
Impacts on malnutritionIncreased numbers of stunted
children
RegionMillions of additional children with stunting in 2050 due to
climate change
NCAR climate scenario
CSIRO climate scenario
South Asia 7 6
Sub-Saharan Africa 9 9
Lloyd S, Kovats RS, Chalabi Z (2011)
Many millions more people are projected to be flooded every year due to sea-level rise by the 2080s
Source: IPCC Wg II, TSI 2007.
2010 – a harbinger of things to come? Pakistan floods ~ 20 m affected Chinese floods ~ 12m displaced Russian drought and fires –wheat harvest down ~ 30% 56,000 extra deaths in Moscow and Western Russia(Munich Re estimate)
Record temperatures in 17 countries.
Deaths Attributable to Climate Change in Year 2000
14 WHO statistical regions are, here, scaled by estimated annual mortality (in 2000) due to change in climate since ~1970. Selected causes of death.
(Patz, Gibbs et al, 2007: based on McMichael, Campbell-Lendrum, et al, 2004)
Estimated annual deaths due to climate change from: malnutrition (~80K), diarrhoea (~50K), malaria (~20K), flooding (~3K)
Physical limits: small low lying islands e.g. Cayman Islands
Behavioural limits: influence where we live and why, e.g. New Orleans
Technological limits: e.g. to the flood defences such as Thames Barrier, London
There are physical, behavioural and technological limits to how much we can adapt
Fossil fuel emissions for the scenariosIPCC 2013
Health co-benefits from the ‘low-carbon’ economyThrough policies in several sectors
e.g.HousingTransportFood and agricultureElectricity generation
lignite
coal
oil
biomassgas
nuclear010
20
30
40
Death
s fr
om
air
pollu
tion
and
acc
idents
/TW
h
0 500 1000 1500
A
lignite
coal
oil
biomassgas
nuclear100
200
30
0
Case
s of
seri
ou
s ill
ness
fro
m a
ir p
ollu
tion /
TW
h
0 500 1000 1500
B
Equivalent CO2 emissions g/kW.hr-
1
0
Air pollution impacts vs CO2 emissions
Source: Markandya A, Wilkinson P. Lancet 2007
GBD estimates for air pollution deaths ( Lim et al LANCET 2012 ;380;) Ambient
particulates ~3.2m deaths p.a.
Household from solid fuels
~3.5 m p.a.Tropospheric Ozone ~ 150 k deaths p.a.
Impacts Reduced exposures e.g. to fine particles, radon, cold, mould, tobacco
smoke
Premature deaths averted ~ 5400/ year
Mt-CO2 saved (vs 1990) 55
Benefits of household energy efficiency in the UK(combined insulation and ventilation control improvements) ( Wilkinson et al 2009
7.0°C
12.5°C
7
8
9
10
11
12
SP01
Modelled health benefits of active travel and low emission vehicles: London and Delhi ( Woodcock et al 2009)
Change in disease burden Change in premature deaths
Ischaemic heart disease 10-19% 1443-2207
Cerebrovascular disease 10-18% 866-1271
Dementia 7-8% 195-250
Breast cancer 12-13% 203-211
Road traffic crashes 19-39% 47-86
Increased active travel in London--- Health effects ( also diabetes, depression , cancer of the breast and bowel)
Food and Agriculture Sector
80% of total emissions in sector from livestock production
Reducing animal source saturated fat by 30 % and replacing it with polyunsaturates could reduce heart disease deaths by ~ 15% (~ 18,000 premature deaths) in the UK
New technologies for clean energy
Building a low carbon,accessible and resilient health system
Design to reduce energy use and GHG emissions.Increase resilience to floods and heatwavesProvide care closer to home Reduce hospital vehicle emissionsEncourage use of public transportation and bicyclesUse locally sourced food and reduce animal product
consumption
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Photos: HCWH, Practice Greenhealth
Climate change has far reaching and potentially catastrophic impacts but many low carbon policies can improve health and the economy.